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The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
Open accessAbstract
We study the implications of the Great Recession for voting for antiestablishment parties, as well as for general trust and political attitudes, using regional data across Europe. We find a strong relationship between increases in unemployment and voting for nonmainstream parties, especially populist ones. Moreover, unemployment increases in tandem with declining trust toward national and European political institutions, though we find only weak or no effects of unemployment on interpersonal trust. The correlation between unemployment and attitudes toward immigrants is muted, especially for their cultural impact. To explore causality, we extract the component of increases in unemployment explained by the precrisis structure of the economy, in particular the share of construction in regional value added, which is strongly related both to the buildup preceding and the bursting of the crisis. Our results imply that crisis-driven economic insecurity is a substantial determinant of populism and political distrust.
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“Today, French and German regions more exposed to trade with low-wage countries have seen larger increases in vote shares for the far right (Dippel et al. 2017; Malgouyres 2017), British regions more exposed to trade with China voted more strongly in favor of Brexit (Colantone and Stanig 2018a), and EU regions more exposed to the Great Recession have seen a greater rise in voting for anti-establish”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Algan et al. 2017
In the citing paper
“Because right-wing populist movements tend to arise during times of economic hardship (Hutchings and Valentino 2004; Inglehart and Norris 2016; Algan et al. 2017), a related explanation for the co-occurrence of heightened animus toward both foreign trading partners and foreign-born individuals stems from political opportunism.”
From Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure (2020) · cites this paper as Algan et al. 2017
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Algan, Y., Guriev, S., Papaioannou, E., & Passari, E.
- Venue
- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2017
- Volume
- 2017
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 309-400
- ISSN
- 0007-2303 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4465
- OpenAlex
- W2782483882
- Cited by
- 693
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 79 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 81 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 84 · 2021: 108 · 2020: 106 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 235.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- SPIRE (Sciences Po) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Social Policy and Reform Studies
- Keywords
- Great Recession, populism, anti-establishment parties, unemployment, trust in political institutions, interpersonal trust, attitudes toward immigrants, economic insecurity, regional value added, political attitudes
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