The DOI matches its Crossref record; 56 of the 56 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post-Soviet Eurasia
Abstract
Research on regime change has often wound up chasing events in the post-Soviet world because it has frequently assumed that regime change, if not simple instability, implies a trajectory toward a regime-type endpoint like democracy or autocracy. A supplemental approach recognizes that regime change can be cyclic, not just progressive, regressive, or random. In fact, regime cycles are much of what we see in the postcommunist world, where some states have oscillated from autocracy toward greater democracy, then back toward more autocracy, and, with recent “colored revolutions,” toward greater democracy again. An institutional logic of elite collective action, focusing on the effects of patronalpresidentialism,is shown to be useful in understanding such cyclic dynamics, explaining why “revolutions” occurred between 2003 and 2005 in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan but not in countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Schelling, T. C. (1960) · Cited by 7,672
Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation
Linz, J. (1996) · Johns Hopkins University Press eBooks · doi:10.56021/9780801851575 · Cited by 3,583
Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America
Przeworski, A. (1991) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139172493 · Cited by 3,494
Coller, X., Linz, J. J., & Stepan, A. (1996) · Reis · doi:10.2307/40184001 · Cited by 3,028
Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies
O'Donnell, G. A., & Schmitter, P. C. (2013) · Cited by 2,956
Elections Without Democracy: The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2002) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2002.0026 · Cited by 2,711
The end of the transition paradigm
Carothers, T. (2002) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2002.0003 · Cited by 2,700
Elections Without Democracy: Thinking About Hybrid Regimes
Diamond, L. (2002) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2002.0025 · Cited by 2,425
What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?
Geddes, B. (1999) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115 · Cited by 2,025
Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model
Rustow, D. A. (1970) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/421307 · Cited by 1,896
Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective
Bratton, M., & Walle, N. V. D. (1997) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139174657 · Cited by 1,838
O'Donell, G. A. (1994) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.1994.0010 · Cited by 1,593
Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy
Alesina, A., Roubini, N., & Cohen, G. D. (1997) · The MIT Press eBooks · doi:10.7551/mitpress/5437.001.0001 · Cited by 1,519
O'Donnell, G. (1993) · World Development · doi:10.1016/0305-750x(93)90048-e · Cited by 1,461
Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989
Kuran, T. (1991) · World Politics · doi:10.2307/2010422 · Cited by 1,448
Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective
Gerhart, G. M., Bratton, M., & Walle, N. V. D. (1998) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20049111 · Cited by 1,418
Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation
Kitschelt, H., Mansfeldova, Z., Markowski, R., & Toka, G. (1999) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139175173 · Cited by 1,084
Qualter, T. H. (1991) · Advertising and Democracy in the Mass Age · doi:10.1007/978-1-349-21610-9_7 · Cited by 945
The Failure of Presidential Democracy
Linz, J. (1994) · doi:10.56021/9780801846397 · Cited by 833
Post-communist party systems: competition, representation, and inter-party cooperation
(2000) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.37-3569 · Cited by 634
The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World
McFaul, M. (2002) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2002.0004 · Cited by 539
The Hybrid Regimes of Central America
Karl, T. L. (1995) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.1995.0049 · Cited by 531
The Global Resurgence of Democracy
Diamond, L. (1996) · Johns Hopkins University Press eBooks · doi:10.56021/9780801853043 · Cited by 517
Becker, H., Mosca, G., & Kahn, H. D. (1940) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2083948 · Cited by 457
Modes of Transition in Latin America, Southern and Eastern Europe
Karl, T. L. (1995) · Cited by 416
The Elite Variable in Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns
Higley, J., & Burton, M. G. (1989) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.2307/2095659 · Cited by 394
Way, L. A. (2005) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2005.0018 · Cited by 391
Hipsher, P. L. (1997) · Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs · doi:10.2307/166517 · Cited by 385
Should Transitologists Be Grounded?
Bunce, V. (1995) · Slavic Review · doi:10.2307/2501122 · Cited by 372
Rethinking Recent Democratization: Lessons from the Postcommunist Experience
Bunce, V. (2003) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2003.0010 · Cited by 359
A Politics of Institutional Choice: Post-Communist Presidencies
FRYE, T. (1997) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414097030005001 · Cited by 325
Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics
Fish, M. S. (2005) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511791062 · Cited by 307
Chehabi, H. (1998) · Johns Hopkins University Press eBooks · doi:10.56021/9780801856938 · Cited by 294
Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal
Mainwaring, S. P., & Shugart, M. S. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.7274/26126563 · Cited by 278
Democracy Derailed in Russia: The Failure of Open Politics
Legvold, R., & Fish, M. S. (2006) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20031880 · Cited by 270
Transitions from Postcommunism
McFaul, M. (2005) · Journal of Democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2005.0049 · Cited by 259
The Mind And Society-a Treatise On General Sociology
Pareto, V. (1935) · Dover Publications eBooks · Cited by 241
Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal
Mainwaring, S., & Shugart, M. S. (1997) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422014 · Cited by 230
Explaining Machine Politics in Russia's Regions: Economy, Ethnicity, and Legacy
Hale, H. E. (2003) · Post-Soviet Affairs · doi:10.2747/1060-586x.19.3.228 · Cited by 224
Self-citationKaratnycky, A. (2005) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20034274 · Cited by 195
Why Not Parties in Russia? Democracy, Federalism, and the State
Legvold, R., & Hale, H. E. (2006) · Foreign Affairs · doi:10.2307/20032183 · Cited by 189
Self-citationPreference for Presidentialism: Postcommunist Regime Change in Russia and the NIS
Easter, G. M. (1997) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.1997.0002 · Cited by 180
Why not parties in Russia?: democracy, federalism, and the state
(2006) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.44-0573 · Cited by 151
Fairbanks, C. H. (2004) · Journal of democracy · doi:10.1353/jod.2004.0025 · Cited by 139
Red Sunset: The Failure of Soviet Politics.
Rowney, D. K., & Roeder, P. G. (1995) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.2307/2168685 · Cited by 112
Johnson, J. (2000) · Cornell University Press eBooks · doi:10.7591/9781501731310 · Cited by 107
Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus
(1997) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511559204 · Cited by 106
Varieties of Post-Soviet Authoritarian Regimes
Roeder, P. G. (1994) · Post-Soviet Affairs · doi:10.1080/1060586x.1994.10641378 · Cited by 105
The Regime Question: Theory Building in Democracy Studies
Munck, G. L. (2001) · World Politics · doi:10.1353/wp.2001.0025 · Cited by 95
Huskey, E. (2016) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315482217 · Cited by 81
Conflict, cleavage, and change in Central Asia and the Caucasus
(1998) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.35-6460 · Cited by 75
Christensen, R. K., Rakhimkulov, E. R., & Wise, C. R. (2005) · Communist and Post-Communist Studies · doi:10.1016/j.postcomstud.2005.03.006 · Cited by 65
Postcommunism and the Theory of Democracy
Roeder, P. G., Fish, M. S., & Hanson, S. E. (2002) · Princeton University Press eBooks · doi:10.1515/9780691230948 · Cited by 65
Junisbai, B., & Junisbai, A. K. (2005) · Demokratizatsiya The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization · doi:10.3200/demo.13.3.373-392 · Cited by 57
Political Liberalization in Africa after Ten Years
Herbst, J., Udogu, E. I., Otttaway, M., & Gros, J.-G. (2001) · Comparative Politics · doi:10.2307/422408 · Cited by 45
Putin and the "Delegative Democracy" Trap: Evidence from Russia's 2003-04 Elections
Hale, H. E., McFaul, M., & Colton, T. J. (2004) · Post-Soviet Affairs · doi:10.2747/1060-586x.20.4.285 · Cited by 34
Self-citation
Cited by
Defeating Dictators: Electoral Change and Stability in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes
Bunce, V. J., & Wolchik, S. L. (2010) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887109990207 · Cited by 377
Religious Politics in Turkey: From the Birth of the Republic to the AKP
Lord, C. (2018) · doi:10.1017/9781108638906 · Cited by 174
Dynamics of regime personalization and patron–client networks in Russia, 1999–2014
Baturo, A., & Elkink, J. A. (2016) · Post-Soviet Affairs · doi:10.1080/1060586x.2015.1032532 · Cited by 73
Focal Moments and Protests in Autocracies: How Pro-democracy Anniversaries Shape Dissent in China
Carter, E. B., & Carter, B. L. (2020) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002720932995 · Cited by 35
Berman, C. (2019) · Middle East Law and Governance · doi:10.1163/18763375-01102003 · Cited by 15
Metadata
- Authors
- Hale, H. E.
- Venue
- World Politics
- Publisher
- Project MUSE
- Published
- 2005-10
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 133-165
- ISSN
- 0043-8871 (ISSN-L)
- 1086-3338
- OpenAlex
- W2051395383
- Cited by
- 383
- References
- 56
- FWCI
- 26.63
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.