Measuring scientific impact beyond academia: An assessment of existing impact metrics and proposed improvements
Open accessAbstract
How does scientific research affect the world around us? Being able to answer this question is of great importance in order to appropriately channel efforts and resources in science. The impact by scientists in academia is currently measured by citation based metrics such as h-index, i-index and citation counts. These academic metrics aim to represent the dissemination of knowledge among scientists rather than the impact of the research on the wider world. In this work we are interested in measuring scientific impact beyond academia, on the economy, society, health and legislation (comprehensive impact). Indeed scientists are asked to demonstrate evidence of such comprehensive impact by authoring case studies in the context of the Research Excellence Framework (REF). We first investigate the extent to which existing citation based metrics can be indicative of comprehensive impact. We have collected all recent REF impact case studies from 2014 and we have linked these to papers in citation networks that we constructed and derived from CiteSeerX, arXiv and PubMed Central using a number of text processing and information retrieval techniques. We have demonstrated that existing citation-based metrics for impact measurement do not correlate well with REF impact results. We also consider metrics of online attention surrounding scientific works, such as those provided by the Altmetric API. We argue that in order to be able to evaluate wider non-academic impact we need to mine information from a much wider set of resources, including social media posts, press releases, news articles and political debates stemming from academic work. We also provide our data as a free and reusable collection for further analysis, including the PubMed citation network and the correspondence between REF case studies, grant applications and the academic literature.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper tests whether citation-based and altmetric metrics correlate with REF impact case study scores as a proxy for scientific impact beyond academia. It finds negligible correlation for MNCS, author h-index, and Altmetric, with only a weak relationship for per-case-study h-index, and regression models fail to predict REF scores.
Key findings
- Existing citation-based metrics do not correlate well with REF impact: overall Pearson r = 0.035 for MNCS and r = −0.005 for average author h-index.
- A newly calculated per-REF-case-study h-index showed a stronger but still weak correlation, r = 0.141 overall.
- Altmetric scores also showed little relationship with REF impact, r = −0.0803, and approximately 40% of papers had no Altmetric score.
- A linear OLS regression using per-study h-index, per-author h-index, total citations, and mean Altmetric score as features had very poor predictive capability, R² = −0.113; SVR was also unsuccessful.
Methods
- Collected all 6,637 REF 2014 impact case studies and built Experimental Citation Networks from CiteSeerX/RefSeer (~5.3M papers), arXiv/Paperscape (~903K papers), and PubMed Central (1.2M papers).
- Linked REF case studies to papers using regular expressions, Freecite CRF parsing, and SOLR search with conservative exact title and author-surname matching; this produced 1,052 linked papers across 647 unique REF studies and 235 UoA-per-institution result groups.
- Calculated MNCS, author h-index, per-case-study h-index, and Altmetric scores, then plotted and correlated them against REF impact scores and trained OLS and SVR regression models with leave-one-out cross-validation.
Limitations
- The paper states that only a minority of REF studies could be linked to ECN papers because REF bibliographies were not machine readable and had varied styles; it also notes possible missing papers from the open-access ECNs and that Web of Science or Scopus might yield different results.
- The paper states that per-case-study REF scores are not available, so results are grouped by UoA-per-institution; Altmetric coverage was insufficient, with about 40% of papers missing scores, and author disambiguation remains a challenge.
- Evident from the text: the conservative matching strategy limits recall, some UoA analyses have very few data points, and the regression dataset was too small to divide into folds, using leave-one-out instead.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 20 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
Of the 1052 papers linked to REF case studies, 63 were duplicate entries.
“We found that of the 1052 papers linked to REF case studies, 63 were duplicate entries.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The search pipeline identified links between papers in the available ECNs and 647 unique REF case studies.
“Our search pipeline was able to identify links between papers in the available ECNs and 647 unique REF case studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
Internally the ECNs contain no duplicate papers.
“Internally the ECNs contain no duplicate papers”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Existing citation-based metrics for impact measurement do not correlate well with REF impact results.
“We have demonstrated that existing citation-based metrics for impact measurement do not correlate well with REF impact results.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The linear regression OLS model predicting REF score from per-study h-index, per-author h-index, total citations and mean altmetrics score had very poor predictive capability (R2 = -0.113).
“We found that the predictive capability of the model was very poor (R2 = −0.113).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
Papers citing the 63 duplicate papers have no overlap.
“We also determined that papers citing the 63 duplicate papers have no overlap.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Approximately 40% of the papers under investigation had no Altmetric score at all.
“Unfortunately a large number of the papers under investigation (approximately 40%) had no Altmetric score at all (the API endpoint returned a 404 indicating missing paper profile).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Calculating h-index with respect to REF case studies offers a stronger correlation than the other metrics investigated in this paper.
“We describe a way of calculating h-index with respect to REF case studies which offers a stronger correlation than the other metrics investigated in this paper.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: h-index for REF case studies has not been calculated before.
- Findingown data
There is a more visible correlation between per-case-study h-index and REF impact score, with a Pearson coefficient of r = 0.141 for the whole dataset including the 5 categories.
“However, what is immediately clear from this graph is that there is a more visible correlation between the two metrics (the Pearson coefficient for the whole dataset including the 5 categories shown was r = 0.141).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Altmetric coverage of the papers in the ECNs was insufficient to allow conclusions regarding the potential of Altmetric scores.
“Coverage by Altmetric of the papers in our experiment citation networks (ECNs) was insufficient to allow us to draw conclusions regarding the potential of Altmetric scores”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Visual inspection does not show any clear relationship between MNCS and REF impact score for any of the units of assessment.
“Visual inspection does not appear to show any clear relationship between the two axes for any of the units of assessment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The overall Pearson coefficient between MNCS and REF impact score for all UoAs is r = 0.035.
“There is also a very low overall Pearson coefficient of r = 0.035 for all UoAs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: All papers referenced by a REF case study are from within the same UoA as that REF case study.
- Findingnone given
Author disambiguation is a challenge that neither their implementation nor Google's implementation of h-index fully addresses.
“Another challenge in this area is author disambiguation which neither our implementation or Google’s implementation of h-index are able to fully address.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Many of the 40% missing Altmetric papers appear to have been from Computer Science.
“Interestingly, we found that many of the 40% of missing papers appear to have been from Computer Science, which had only 4 samples to display on this graph.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Support Vector Regression with RBF kernel also had equally uninspiring R2 scores.
“However, the R2 scores for this model were equally uninspiring.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
None of the Leave-Out-One-Feature scores are useful.
“Holding out the Per-Case-Study UoA improves the score the most but none of the scores are useful.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The duplication mainly stems from the PubMed and RefSeer ECNs, which both have significant coverage of Bioinformatics publications.
“This duplication mainly stems from the PubMed and RefSeer ECNs which both have significant coverage of Bioinformatics publications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
They were only able to identify links between ECNs and a minority of REF studies.
“Despite the huge data collection and sanitation effort, we were only able to identify links between ECNS and a minority of REF studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Average author h-index versus REF impact score shows very little clear correlation, with a Pearson coefficient of r = -0.005.
“This shows very little clear correlation with author h-index scores dotted around almost randomly, which is further validated by a Pearson coefficient of r = -0.005 on this dataset.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The exact numbers of ECN h-index scores and Google h-index scores are rather different.
“The exact numbers of our h-index scores and Google’s h-index scores are rather different.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
No obvious link between Altmetric score and REF impact score was found.
“but no obvious link between Altmetric score and REF impact score was found.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Holding out the Per-Case-Study UoA improves the R2 score the most.
“Holding out the Per-Case-Study UoA improves the score the most but none of the scores are useful.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Plotting author h-index against REF describes the relationship between the historical success of authors and their typical REF scores, not REF scores and their typical academic influence derived from underpinning research.
“This means that it is more accurate to say that plotting author h-index against REF describes the relationship between the historical success of authors and their typical REF scores as opposed to REF scores and their typical academic influence derived from underpinning research.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The ECNs are relatively complementary in terms of citation network contributions.
“This is the ideal case and shows that our ECNs are relatively complementary in terms of citation network contributions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
The h-index acts almost like an averaging filter, reducing the overall effect of a single paper with a large number of citations on any given study.
“This is because h-index acts almost like an averaging filter, reducing the overall effect of a single paper with a large number of citations on any given study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The predominance of Computer Science papers is due to the CiteSeerX ECN being the most homogeneous network among the ECNs considered.
“The predominance of Computer Science papers above all is due to the fact that the CiteSeerX ECN, which only focuses on Computer Science research, is the most homogeneous network among the ECNs we consider.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There is negligible correlation between REF impact score and author h-index.
“We have demonstrated that there is negligible correlation between REF impact score, as a proxy for comprehensive impact of academic work, and some of the most used academic impact metrics, citation count and author h-index.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
REF and the citation-based metrics and altmetrics assessed in this study measure different things.
“This supports our theory that REF and the citation-based metrics and altmetrics assessed in this study measure different things.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Given the poor and/or inconsistent correlation coefficients for each feature, it is not surprising that a regression model could not be trained.
“Given the poor and/or inconsistent correlation coefficients for each of the features in this experiment, it is not surprising that a regression model could not be trained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Citation-based metrics and altmetrics share many strengths and weaknesses because both measure the attention that publications receive as a proxy for the success of that publication.
“Since both citation-based metrics and altmetrics measure the ‘attention’ that publications receive (number of citations, social media ‘likes’, ‘retweets’ etc.) as a proxy for the success of that publication, it is to be expected that they share many of the same strengths and weaknesses.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The per UoA per Institution result groupings can be considered disjoint.
“Since case studies can only be submitted to one UoA, these per UoA per Institution result groupings can be considered disjoint.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Per-REF-study h-index still leaves much to be desired when approximating REF impact score.
“However, per-REF-study h-index still leaves much to be desired when trying to approximate the corresponding REF impact score.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given
Citation-based academic impact metrics aim to measure the popularity of journals and authors at a high level rather than represent the merits of a single piece of research.
“Citation-based academic impact metrics, such as those discussed above, aim to measure the popularity of journals and authors at a high level, rather than represent the merits of a single piece of research.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The probability that duplicate papers significantly alter the correlation between author h-index and REF impact study is very low.
“We believe that the probability of this happening at a scale significant enough to noticably alter the correlation between Author h-index and REF impact study is very low.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Citation-based academic impact metrics are based on the assumption that influential works or scientists are cited more often than others.
“These metrics are based upon the assumption that influential works or scientists are cited more often than others [6, 8]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Interpretationown data
There is negligible correlation between REF impact score and citation count.
“We have demonstrated that there is negligible correlation between REF impact score, as a proxy for comprehensive impact of academic work, and some of the most used academic impact metrics, citation count and author h-index.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
There are concerns about the coverage, or lack thereof, of policy providers with respect to geographical regions and scientific fields.
“However, there are some concerns about the coverage, or lack thereof, of policy providers with respect to geographical regions and scientific fields [32].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [32] R Haunschild, 2017, How many scientific papers are mentioned in policy-related documents? An empirical investigation using Web of Science and Altmetric data, Scientometrics
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
None of the existing altmetric/social-web systems facilitate understanding socio-economic impact in depth.
“However, none of them facilitate understanding socio-economic impact in depth.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Given normalisation for year of publication, a stronger correlation of MNCS with REF Score would be expected if accrual of citations was a significant limiting factor.
“Notwithstanding, given that we normalised for year of publication in our comparison of MNCS against REF Score, we would expect a stronger correlation of MNCS with REF Score if accrual of citations was a significant limiting factor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Papers need time to accumulate citations.
- Interpretationreasoning
REF impact does offer a perspective on comprehensive impact that citation-based metrics and current generation altmetrics cannot.
“Here we have shown that REF impact does offer a perspective on comprehensive impact that citation-based metrics and current generation altmetrics cannot.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
Their implementation of h-index for a REF case study side-steps author disambiguation by using exact title matches between publications and REF case studies.
“Our implementation of h-index for a REF case study neatly side-steps the author disambiguation problem since publications are tied to case studies by using exact title matches (with some normalisation for punctuation) between publication and respective REF case studies that list them as underpinning research.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationnone given
REF impact case studies are the closest available assessment of scientific impact beyond academia.
“Despite the shortcomings of REF impact case studies, they are the closest we have to assessing the impact of scientific work beyond academia and in the following we use these as a gold standard.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
The information from the citation network provides enough context to perform relative ranking and measurement within their dataset despite absolute differences from Google h-index values.
“We were satisfied that despite the absolute differences between our h-index values and those of Google, the information from the citation network provides enough context to perform relative ranking and measurement within our dataset.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
REF impact scores can be considered a close proxy for comprehensive impact.
“This definition is very close to our definition for comprehensive impact and as such REF impact scores can be considered a close proxy for comprehensive impact.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] REF 2014. Assessment framework and guidance on submissions; 2011. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/" xlink:type="simple">http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
It is not possible to gain access to REF impact scores for unique case studies.
“As discussed, it is not possible to gain access to REF impact scores for unique case studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] REF 2014. Assessment framework and guidance on submissions; 2011. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/" xlink:type="simple">http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Costas et al. found that Altmetrics coverage of Mathematical and Computer Science papers tends to be much lower than disciplines like Biomedicine and Health or Natural Sciences and engineering.
“A recent study by Costas et al. also found that Altmetrics coverage of Mathematical and Computer Science papers tends to be much lower than disciplines like Biomedicine and Health or Natural Sciences and engineering [29].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] R Costas, 2015, Do “altmetrics” correlate with citations? Extensive comparison of altmetric indicators with citations from a multidisciplinary perspective, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisenone given
In order for duplicate papers to significantly impact an author's h-index, any paper contributing to h would have to have at least h + 1 citations.
“However, in order for duplicate papers to significantly impact an author’s h-index, any paper contributing to h, the author’s current h-index, would have to have at least h + 1 citations (contributed through novel and duplicate links).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 20
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 24
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataNeither a simple regression model nor a more complex SVR model was successful in predicting REF scores from the metrics.
“When predicting REF scores from the set of aforementioned metrics as features, neither a simple regression model nor a more complex SVR model was successful.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere are 647 unique studies linked across the three ECNs, some of which appear multiple times giving a total of 711.
“Note: *There are 647 unique studies linked across the three ECNs, some of which appear multiple times giving a total of 711.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningPhysics and Allied Health Professions papers have some of the lower h-index and citation counts but the highest Altmetric scores.
“The inverse appears to be true for Physics and Allied Health Professions papers, which have some of the lower h-index and citation counts in previous graphs but have the highest Altmetric scores.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataNeither Physics nor Allied Health Professions UoAs demonstrate any correlation between Altmetric scores and REF scores.
“However, neither of these UoAs demonstrate any kind of correlation between Altmetric scores and REF scores.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe regular expression and CRF pipeline returned 6627 references, of which 1052 papers from the ECNs were matched.
“However our regular expression and CRF pipeline returns 6627 references and of these we are able to match 1052 papers from our ECNs.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAltmetric score and REF impact score show little correlation, with a Pearson coefficient of r = -0.0803.
“Perhaps surprisingly the results show that there is little in the way of correlation between Altmetric score and REF impact. The Pearson coefficient for the overall relationship is r = −0.0803.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataGrouping results by UoA-per-Institution leaves 235 result groups, with an average case study population of 2.65 and a standard deviation of 3.2.
“This leaves us with 235 result groups (with an average case study population of 2.65 and Standard Deviation of 3.2) to be used in experiments and plotted.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningThey deliberately use data from close to the REF study period where possible to accurately measure the 10 year window within which the REF report is valid.
“We deliberately use data from close to the REF study period where possible such that we can accurately measure the 10 year window within which the REF report is valid.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The REF guidelines stipulate that all supporting works must have been published in the ten year window starting in December 2003 and ending in December 2013.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe model was trained using Leave-One-Out cross validation because the data set was too small to divide into folds.
“The model was trained using Leave-One-Out cross validation since the data set was too small to sensibly divide up into folds.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe paper does not know exactly how many references there are in total or what proportion of them were successfully matched.
“Therefore, we do not know exactly how many references there are in total and what proportion of them we are able to successfully match.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisereasoningREF reports tend to focus on a small number of high impact works from institutions, penalising academics who contribute in small amounts to a large number of projects.
“Thus reports tend to focus on a small number of high impact works from institutions, penalising academics who contribute in small amounts to a large number of projects.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIt is possible to game the Altmetric system through the generation of false likes and mentions, adding significant noise.
“In addition to this, it is possible to game the Altmetric system through the generation of false likes and mentions [21], adding significant noise.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [21] L Bornmann, 2014, Do altmetrics point to the broader impact of research? An overview of benefits and disadvantages of altmetrics, Journal of Informetrics source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe ECNs were comprehensive in their combined coverage of STEM subjects and the timespans covered.
“The ECNs were comprehensive in their combined coverage of STEM subjects and the timespans covered too.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThe inability to identify links between ECNs and many REF studies is due to the format of the REF studies, which had very varied bibliography styles that were not machine readable.
“We believe this is due to the format of the REF studies which had very varied bibliography styles which were not machine readable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Not all researchers in scientific domains covered by arXiv, CiteSeerX and PubMed Central publish to these repositories.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe REF assessment process is resource intensive, requiring a committee of academics to evaluate each submission individually, necessitating brief 3-5 page submissions.
“The assessment process is resource intensive, requiring a committee of academics to evaluate each submission individually, necessitating brief 3–5 page submissions [25, p. 51].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] REF 2014. Assessment framework and guidance on submissions; 2011. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/" xlink:type="simple">http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenThe subjective nature of human assessors, combined with flexible guidelines and varying opinions on what makes a good case study, is a potential weakness of the REF system.
“The subjective nature of human assessors, combined with flexible guidelines and varying opinions on what makes a good case study is also a potential weakness of this system.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationFull text features drawn from academic papers are more informative in calculating academic impact.
“This would support the view taken by McKeown et al. that full text features drawn from academic papers are more informative in calculating academic impact [20].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] K McKeown, 2016, Predicting the impact of scientific concepts using full-text features, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe matching strategy is very conservative, estimated to have very few errors but limited recall for citation matches.
“Since we require an exact match between titles normalising for case and punctuation as well as checking that one or more author surnames match between REF citation and paper metadata record, our matching strategy is very conservative and as such we estimate that there are very few errors but also limits our recall for citation matches.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningCurrent altmetric systems are far from mature.
“However we believe that these systems are far from mature.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThey calculated the h-indices of the most prolific authors in the study and compared these against their respective Google h-index as a probable upper limit.
“Since these are not as comprehensive as those provided by Google Scholar and Web of Science, we have calculated the h-indices of the most prolific authors in our study and compared these against their respective Google h-index as a probable upper limit.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe paper checked that titles of RefSeer papers and those suggested by CrossRef matched word for word before accepting the CrossRef suggested DOI.
“We checked that the titles of the RefSeer papers and those suggested by CrossRef matched word for word before accepting the CrossRef suggested DOI.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationVariation of citation behaviour across disciplines may mean that comparisons made via h-index and JIF across scientific domains are invalid.
“Bornmann (2008) suggests that variation of citation behaviour across disciplines may also mean that comparisons made via h-index and JIF across scientific domains are invalid [10].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningComputer Science papers are cited many times by academics but are not discussed as frequently on social media.
“This suggests that although Computer Science papers are cited many times by academics (as previous graphs imply), they are not discussed as frequently on social media.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataREF impact is more of a proxy for comprehensive impact whereas citation-based metrics and altmetrics mostly measure academic impact.
“We believe that REF impact is more of a proxy for comprehensive impact whereas citation-based metrics and altmetrics mostly measure academic impact.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningPer-case-study h-index more succinctly encapsulates the academic impact of the REF case study than the per-author metric.
“In other words, it more succinctly encapsulates the academic impact of the REF case study than the per-author metric used above.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe 10 principles of the Leiden Manifesto also apply to the use of altmetrics to measure academic impact.
“Bornmann (2016) suggests that the 10 principles of the Leiden Manifesto, originally written to address citation-based metrics, also apply to the use of altmetrics to measure academic impact [22].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationCitation behaviour may be driven by motivators including the negation or correction of some part of the cited work.
“Cronin (1984) suggests that citation behaviour may be driven by a number of motivators including the negation or correction of some part of the cited work [9, pp 35–46].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Cronin (1984)
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [9] B Cronin, 1984, The role and significance of citations in scientific communication
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationMNCS is usually normalised by year and by scientific discipline.
“MNCS is usually normalised by year and by scientific discipline [4].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] Waltman L. A review of the literature on citation impact indicators. 2015 jul;Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.02099" xlink:type="simple">http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.02099</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationTypically REF submissions are only assessed by one Unit-of-Assessment sub-panel, placing importance on employing diverse assessment panels who can fairly judge interdisciplinary work.
“Whilst REF does contain provisions for interdisciplinary researchers, typically submissions are only assessed by one Unit-of-Assessment sub-panel (a panel that judges work deemed to be in a similar academic discipline e.g. Physics, Mathematics, Biology and so forth) [25, p. 15] placing great importance on employing diverse assessment panels who can fairly judge interdisciplinary work.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] REF 2014. Assessment framework and guidance on submissions; 2011. Available from: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/" xlink:type="simple">http://www.ref.ac.uk/pubs/2011-02/</ext-link>.
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningLarge diverse citation networks should allow accurate calculation of citation metrics for the REF studies under examination.
“Large diverse citation networks should allow us to calculate citation metrics accurately for the REF studies under examination.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningIt is to be expected that authors featured in the ECNs also publish in journals and publications that are not present in these networks but are present in Google's indexing platform.
“Despite our ECNs being large and relatively comprehensive, it is to be expected that authors featured within them also publish in journals and publications that are not present in these networks but that are present in Google’s indexing platform.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThelwall et al. found that social data coverage was inadequate for drawing any conclusions.
“They found that social data coverage was inadequate for drawing any conclusions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] M Thelwall, 2013, Do Altmetrics Work? Twitter and Ten Other Social Web Services, PLoS ONE
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis metric represents the citation-count impact or Academic impact of a REF case study, as opposed to the average per-author metric which describes the average academic impact of an author's entire work.
“This metric represents the citation-count impact or Academic impact of a REF case study as opposed to the average per-author metric which describes the average academic impact of an author’s entire work.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationown dataThe finding of little correlation between Altmetric score and REF impact seems to support the experience of Thelwall et al.
“This finding seems to support the experience of Thelwall et al [28].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] M Thelwall, 2013, Do Altmetrics Work? Twitter and Ten Other Social Web Services, PLoS ONE
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningAltmetric would seem to be the existing academic impact metric most closely linked to socio-economic impact because it is modelled upon online social media interactions rather than citations.
“Among the existing metrics for academic impact explored above, Altmetric would seem to be the one most closely linked to socio-economic impact since it is modelled upon online social media interactions rather than citations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningPer-case-study h-index is derived from the pure citation counts depicted in Fig 4, so the graph is very similar.
“Since per-case-study h-index is a metric derived from the pure citation counts depicted in Fig 4, it should come as no surprise that the graph is very similar.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataTheir scoped survey does not provide much insight into the extent of duplication across an author's entire back-catalogue of work.
“Our scoped survey does not provide much insight into the extent of duplication across an author’s entire back-catalogue of work.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationHaustein et al. (2014) suggest that papers are more likely to be tweeted if they are "curious or funny, have potential health applications or refer to a catastrophe".
“Haustein et al. (2014) suggest that papers are more likely to be tweeted if they are “curious or funny, have potential health applications or refer to a catastrophe” [30].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] S Haustein, 2016, Tweets as impact indicators: Examining the implications of automated “bot” accounts on Twitter, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology source
Not checked in the free run.
The paper relies on this without support.
Altmetric scores are a valid measure of social-web-based impact.
“we chose to use Altmetric as our source as they provide an easy to use API which takes a paper’s PubMed or DOI identifier and produces a continuous score which could be plotted against REF and used in regression without any further manipulation.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All papers referenced by a REF case study are from within the same UoA as that REF case study.
“This decision assumes that all papers referenced by a REF case study are from within the same UoA as that REF case study.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The REF impact system currently in place is a very manual and resource intensive process.
“The REF impact system currently in place is a very manual and resource intensive process.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Existing analysis of policy documents is based on counting references in these documents to scholarly articles.
“Furthermore, existing analysis of policy documents is based on counting references in these documents to scholarly articles.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Altmetric.com and other altmetrics providers already examine some policy documents as part of their offerings.
“Altmetric.com and other altmetrics providers already examine some policy documents as part of their offerings.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Not all researchers in scientific domains covered by arXiv, CiteSeerX and PubMed Central publish to these repositories.
“Not all researchers in scientific domains covered by arXiv, CiteSeerX and PubMed Central publish to these repositories.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Papers need time to accumulate citations.
“Papers need time to accumulate citations.”
The paper relies on this without support.
h-index for REF case studies has not been calculated before.
“We do not believe h-index for REF case studies has been calculated before.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The REF guidelines stipulate that all supporting works must have been published in the ten year window starting in December 2003 and ending in December 2013.
“The REF guidelines stipulate that all supporting works must have been published in the ten year window starting in December 2003 and ending in December 2013.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Citations may be appropriate for assessing scientific impact of research, but they do not show impact outside the scientific community.
“Citations may be appropriate in assessing the scientific impact of the research, but they do not show the impact of the research outside the scientific community [1,3,5,6,260,264,265].”
From Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus: The Titans of Bibliographic Information in Today’s Academic World (2021) · cites this paper as [264]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Stated ECN size conflicts with the reported size of one network
MinorThe paper describes all its ECNs together as being of the order of 2 million papers, but reports approximately 5.3 million papers in the CiteSeerX-derived network alone.
“Since there are of the order of 2 million papers in our ECNs, we restricted the search and comparison to the 1052 papers that have explicit links to REF case studies”
“These citation networks contain approximately 5.3M and 903K papers respectively.”
Reported mean case-study population does not match the group count
MinorThe paper reports 647 unique linked case studies and says the 235 result groups are disjoint. That gives 647 ÷ 235 ≈ 2.75 case studies per group, not 2.65.
Reported 2.65 · recomputed 2.753191
“This leaves us with 235 result groups (with an average case study population of 2.65 and Standard Deviation of 3.2)”
Fig 4 is described as showing raw citation counts, but shows MNCS
MinorThe discussion of Fig 6 says Fig 4 depicts pure citation counts. The paper's caption identifies Fig 4 as a plot of mean normalised citation scores.
“Since per-case-study h-index is a metric derived from the pure citation counts depicted in Fig 4, it should come as no surprise that the graph is very similar.”
“Figure: Fig 4 Average MNCS per REF case study vs REF case study score.”
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- Authors
- Ravenscroft, J., Liakata, M., Clare, A., & Duma, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Warwick (GB)
- Aberystwyth University (GB)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Ravenscroft, James
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2017-03-09
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- e0173152
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5344357
- OpenAlex
- W2593028313
- Semantic Scholar
- 7c6dd680030a3111409c45dfc28b1d9feebc25e3
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 18 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 19.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (1535875, 1643924)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Information Systems › Web visibility and informetrics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Keywords
- scientific impact measurement, citation metrics, Research Excellence Framework, h-index, I-index, citation networks, altmetrics, online attention, social media, media coverage, science policy, grant applications
- MeSH terms
- Achievement, Humans, Publishing, Science, Models, Statistical, Biomedical Research, Journal Impact Factor, Social Media
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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