Shift in Tuna Catches Due to Ocean Warming
Open accessAbstract
Ocean warming is already affecting global fisheries with an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes and lower catches of tropical and subtropical species in the tropics. Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature, for this reason and their worldwide distribution, their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries. This study shows the shift of tuna catches in subtropical latitudes on a global scale. From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean. This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming. Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing. Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase. Thus, at least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Using longliner catch data from 1965–2011, the study finds that the percentage of tropical tuna in catches increased in subtropical Atlantic and Pacific areas and was positively related to SST across oceans and hemispheres, consistent with poleward shifts of tropical tuna. In the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches decreased in tropical areas, suggesting the increased subtropical proportion was not simply a target-species shift.
Key findings
- SST had a positive effect on expected tropical tuna percentage in all oceans and hemispheres. For a one-degree SST rise, the expected proportion increased by 1.46 in the North Atlantic and 1.32 in the South Atlantic; 1.34 in the North Pacific and 1.27 in the South Pacific; and 1.25 in the North Indian and 1.19 in the South Indian (text values; Table 2 gives South Indian median 1.20).
- The year × latitude interaction was positive in the northern hemisphere for all three oceans, indicating a constant shift of tropical species toward higher latitudes; in the southern hemisphere the relationship was negative except for the Indian Ocean, which was positive.
- The percentage of tropical tuna increased in subtropical Atlantic and Pacific areas, while the Indian Ocean pattern was not totally clear and subtropical %trop showed the opposite trend in the last five years of the series. Overall %trop showed no clear pattern: it tended to increase in the Atlantic and Pacific and decrease in the Indian Ocean.
- Tropical tuna catches showed a decreasing trend in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, which the authors say may indicate the increased %trop was not related to a change in fishing strategy, at least in the Atlantic. Catches increased only in the Pacific, both overall and in subtropical areas; effort increased in the Atlantic and Pacific and decreased in the Indian Ocean.
Methods
- Longliner catch and effort data came from ICCAT, WCPFC, and IOTC; SST data came from NOAA’s Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature V3b. Data covered 1965–2011 (1967–2011 in the Indian Ocean), were converted to annual 5×5° grid values, and only grid cells with SST and catch data for at least 35 years were included.
- The percentage of tropical species (skipjack and yellowfin) in longliner catch was modeled with a Bayesian beta regression including year, SST, latitude, and a latitude × year interaction, run separately by ocean and hemisphere using R-INLA. Models were selected with WAIC; vague zero-mean Gaussian priors with variance 100 were used for fixed effects.
- Spatial maps were obtained by Bayesian kriging aggregated per decade, showing differences between first and last decades. Time trends in %trop, effort, total catches, and SST were smoothed with lowess, with bootstrap percentile 95% confidence intervals, both for the entire dataset and for subtropical regions (20–30N, 20–30S).
Limitations
- Stated: stock trends, catch regulations, and market demands could significantly affect species targeting and catches, so SST may be only a partial driver of the trends identified. The authors focused on the proportion of tropical tunas rather than total catch to avoid these external biases.
- Stated: data are analyzed on a yearly time scale, so seasonal patterns can be lost; yearly data were chosen because the aim was a first worldwide long-term series assessment.
- Evident from the text: the Indian Ocean pattern is less clear, with subtropical %trop showing the opposite trend in the last five years, and the authors call for further analysis using 2011–2017 data to better define it.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
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Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
6 of 37 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Shifts in the ecology and biogeography of marine fishes may be useful indicators of climate changes.
“Shifts in the ecology and biogeography of marine fishes may be useful indicators of climate changes [13].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] M Arvedlund, 2009, First records of unusual marine fish distributions—can they predict climate changes?, J Mar Biol Assoc U K source
- Premisecitation
In response to ocean warming, marine populations tend to move toward the poles and deeper depths.
“In response to ocean warming, marine populations tend to move toward the poles and deeper depths [4–7].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 4 sources checked- cites [4] AL Perry, 2005, Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes, Science source
- cites [5] T. Anker-Nilssen, 2008, The effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of marine species in the OSPAR Maritime Area
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [6] NK Dulvy, 2008, Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas, J Appl Ecol source
The Abstract reports that the North Sea demersal fish assemblage deepened as waters warmed, and that abundant, widespread thermal specialists shifted northward. But it also describes southward shifts in other species; the Discussion says these opposing shifts produced no overall latitudinal response. The paper therefore supports the depth trend and a qualified poleward trend, not an unqualified tendency across marine populations. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [7] WW Cheung, 2011, Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic, ICES J Mar Sci source
The Results report that most of the 120 studied fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic were projected to shift northward, with distribution centroids also moving into deeper water between 2005 and 2050. This supports the direction of the claim, but the source presents a regional model projection under climate-change scenarios, not a general observed tendency across marine populations in response to warming alone. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Distributions of North Sea and Northeast Atlantic fishes responded markedly to ocean warming, shifting in intermediate latitudes.
“However, distributions of North Sea and Northeast Atlantic fishes responded markedly to ocean warming, shifting in intermediate latitudes [4, 5].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [4] AL Perry, 2005, Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes, Science source
- cites [5] T. Anker-Nilssen, 2008, The effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of marine species in the OSPAR Maritime Area
Section 3.3.5 reports substantial changes in fish distributions across the OSPAR regions, including latitudinal shifts consistent with warming. But section 3.3.3 says the changes were most prominent in the northern OSPAR area and cannot be attributed unequivocally to climate because other factors, particularly fishing, may matter. The source therefore does not fully support the claim's unqualified attribution to warming or its specification of intermediate latitudes. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
If the trend towards ocean warming continues, the prospects point to large scale redistribution in fishery catches in the near future.
“If this trend towards ocean warming continues [3], the prospects point to large scale redistribution in fishery catches in the near future [21, 22].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [3] Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al. Observations: Ocean. In: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Cambridge Univ Press, New York) 2013.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [21] S Ferrari, 2004, Beta regression for modeling rates and proportions, J Appl Stat source
- cites [22] I Paradinas, 2016, Identifying the best fishing-suitable areas under the new European discard ban, ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil source
The Introduction discusses spatial maps for minimizing by-catch and discards, while the Results and Discussion address discard patterns in the study area. Searched the indexed copy for ocean warming, climate change, and redistribution of fishery catches; no passage addresses a warming-driven, large-scale redistribution of catches in the near future. The absence of a local temporal trend in discard ratios does not contradict that broader projection. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean.
“From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingreasoning
In the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, trends of tropical tuna catches are decreasing.
“the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The increasing SST pattern in the Atlantic and Pacific is clearer when the analysis is restricted to subtropical areas.
“This pattern is clearer when we restrict the analysis to subtropical areas (Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The final Bayesian models for all the oceans included all the explanatory variables: SST, latitude, year and the interaction between latitude and year.
“The final Bayesian models for all the oceans included all the explanatory variables, including the SST, latitude, year and interaction between latitude and year (Table 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The Indian Ocean showed a more stable SST pattern in the last two decades when analyzed on a large scale.
“In contrast, the Indian Ocean showed a more stable pattern in the last two decades when analyzed on a large scale (Fig 2), while a clearly increasing tendency is seen in the subtropical areas (Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
For subtropical areas, the increasing %trop pattern showed the opposite trend in the last five years of the time series.
“Indeed, for subtropical areas the increasing %trop pattern showed the opposite trend in the last five years of the time series.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Effort showed a decreasing tendency in the Indian Ocean under both approaches.
“The effort showed an increasing trend in the Atlantic and Pacific, on both regional and local scales, whereas the Indian ocean stood out with a decreasing tendency using both approaches (Fig 2 and Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Effort showed an increasing trend in the Atlantic and Pacific, on both regional and local scales.
“The effort showed an increasing trend in the Atlantic and Pacific, on both regional and local scales, whereas the Indian ocean stood out with a decreasing tendency using both approaches (Fig 2 and Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In the southern hemisphere, the negative year-by-latitude relationship indicates the same shift pattern, except in the Indian Ocean.
“Similarly, in the southern hemisphere the negative relationship indicates the same patterns, except for the Indian Ocean (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
SST had a positive effect on the expected percentage of tropical tuna in all the oceans, in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
“Specifically, the SST had a positive effect on the expected percentage of tropical tuna in all the oceans, for both the northern and southern hemispheres.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The Indian Ocean showed a clearly increasing SST tendency in the subtropical areas.
“In contrast, the Indian Ocean showed a more stable pattern in the last two decades when analyzed on a large scale (Fig 2), while a clearly increasing tendency is seen in the subtropical areas (Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The change in %trop from the first to the last decade of the time series shows a stronger increasing pattern in the proportion of tropical tuna, especially in the subtropical areas.
“Fig 1 shows the change in %trop from the first to the last decade of the time series, highlighting a stronger increasing pattern in the proportion of tropical tuna, especially in the subtropical areas (Fig 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
When overall data were analyzed, the percentage of tropical tuna tended to decrease in the Indian Ocean.
“In particular, the %trop tended to increase in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and decrease in the Indian ocean (Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
The Indian Ocean is the only area in which the %trop pattern is not totally clear.
“The Indian Ocean is the only area in which the %trop pattern is not totally clear.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The bootstrap-smoothing analysis showed an increasing SST tendency in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans in the last two decades.
“The bootstrap-smoothing graphic solution showed an increasing SST tendency in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans in the last two decades (Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Catches showed a decreasing trend in the Atlantic and Indian oceans during recent decades.
“Catches showed an increasing trend only in the Pacific, both overall and in the subtropical areas, while a decreasing trend was found for the Atlantic and Indian oceans during recent decades (Fig 2 and Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Bayesian analysis indicates that %trop is positively related with SST.
“However, Bayesian analysis indicates that the %trop is positively related with SST.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The interaction of year and latitude showed a positive effect in the three oceans in the northern hemisphere.
“The interaction of year and latitude showed a positive effect in the three oceans in the northern hemisphere, highlighting a constant shift of the tropical species towards higher latitudes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In the Indian Ocean, the percentage of tropical tuna tends to decrease in the subtropical areas.
“However, for the Indian Ocean %trop tends to decrease (Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The only exception to the latitude pattern was a positive relationship in the Indian Ocean in the southern hemisphere.
“The only exception was the positive relationship of the Indian Ocean in the southern hemisphere.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
When analyses were restricted to subtropical areas, the Atlantic and Pacific oceans showed an increasing trend in the percentage of tropical tuna.
“However, the Atlantic and Pacific oceans showed an increasing trend when the analyses were restricted to subtropical areas (Fig 3).”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“Our results revealed a rising trend in SST and %trop in subtropical areas throughout the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans during the past four decades, and an even stronger increase in the last two decades.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
- Findingown data
The spatio-temporal effect was not clearly identifiable in the Bayesian analysis, since the interaction of year and latitude showed a positive relationship in both northern and southern hemispheres.
“Neither was the spatio-temporal effect clearly identifiable in the Bayesian analysis, since the interaction of the year and latitude showed a positive relationship in both northern and southern hemispheres.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature.
“Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
“Despite these adaptations, sea temperature is an important environmental parameter for tuna distribution [18].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [18] RW Brill, 1994, A review of temperature and oxygen tolerance studies of tunas pertinent to fisheries oceanography, movement models and stock assessments, Fish Oceanogr source
- Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
- Premisereasoning
Tuna populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries.
“their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
“Due to the wide distribution of tuna species [14] and their dependence on optimal temperature, their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [14] M Goujon, 2000, Biological characteristics of tuna
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [18] RW Brill, 1994, A review of temperature and oxygen tolerance studies of tunas pertinent to fisheries oceanography, movement models and stock assessments, Fish Oceanogr source
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning
The increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species.
“Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The observed trends in catch composition are not due to changes in fishing gear, regulations, or reporting.
- Premisecitation
Major tuna species can be classified into tropical (skipjack and yellowfin), intermediate (bigeye) and temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin) according to their thermal range and distribution.
“According to their thermal range and distribution [14, 18], these major species can be classified into tropical (skipjack and yellowfin), intermediate (bigeye) and temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin and southern bluefin).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [14] M Goujon, 2000, Biological characteristics of tuna
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [18] RW Brill, 1994, A review of temperature and oxygen tolerance studies of tunas pertinent to fisheries oceanography, movement models and stock assessments, Fish Oceanogr source
- Interpretationreasoning
At least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.
“Thus, at least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
“At least in the Atlantic and Indian, our results indicate that tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas, as populations shift towards higher latitudes, since the expansion towards the poles of these tropical species did not increase their catches.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches reflects the relative abundance or spatial distribution of tropical tuna populations.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning
As populations shift towards higher latitudes, the catches of tropical tuna species did not increase.
“Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches reflects the relative abundance or spatial distribution of tropical tuna populations.
- Interpretationown data
The increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in catches may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming.
“This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches reflects the relative abundance or spatial distribution of tropical tuna populations.
- Premisecitation
Catches of warmer water species are increasingly dominant at higher latitudes.
“an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes”
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
“This is reflected as increases in warmer water species in some higher latitude areas [8–10]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [8] DE Raitsos, 2010, Global climate change amplifies the entry of tropical species into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Limnol Oceanogr source
- cites [9] R Gamito, 2015, Are regional fisheries’ catches changing with climate?, Fish Res source
- cites [10] CM Teixeira, 2014, Trends in landings of fish species potentially affected by climate change in Portuguese fisheries, Reg Environm Change source
- Also stated in: § Introduction · hedged
- Interpretationreasoning
The descending trend in tropical tuna catches in the Atlantic may be taken as an indicator that the increased %trop was not related to a change in fishing strategy, at least in that ocean.
“In addition, tropical tuna catches show a descending trend in the Atlantic, which may be taken as an indicator that the increased %trop was not related to a change in fishing strategy, at least in this ocean.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The species composition of longliner catches (%trop) reflects the distribution and abundance of tropical tuna populations, not only changes in fishing strategy or fleet behaviour.
- Interpretationown data
The positive year-by-latitude interaction in the northern hemisphere indicates a constant shift of tropical tuna species towards higher latitudes.
“The interaction of year and latitude showed a positive effect in the three oceans in the northern hemisphere, highlighting a constant shift of the tropical species towards higher latitudes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
The analyses focused on the proportion of tropical tunas and not on the total catch of the species, in order to avoid external biases.
“However, our analyses have focused on the proportion of tropical tunas and not on the total catch of the species, in order to avoid these external biases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Tropical tunas display a rapid turnover, characteristic of r-selected species.
“These species therefore display a rapid turnover, characteristic of r-selected species [20].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] JH Zar, 1999, Biostatistical Analysis
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: Tropical tunas are characterized by small to medium size, rapid growth, early age-at-maturity, long spawning duration and short life span.
- Premisecitation
The response of fish distributions to ocean warming seems to be more important in species with short life cycles and small body size.
“This phenomenon seems to be more important in species with short life cycles and small body size [4].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] AL Perry, 2005, Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes, Science source
- Interpretationreasoning
The tropicalization of longliner tuna catches in intermediate latitudes may be due to a shift of tropical tuna populations towards the poles in response to ocean warming.
“The tropicalization of longliner tuna catches in intermediate latitudes may be due to a shift of tropical tuna populations towards the poles in response to ocean warming.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Tuna populations at intermediate latitudes (20-30N and 20-30S) underwent a large-scale tropicalization from 1965 to 2011.
“This suggests that tuna populations at intermediate latitudes (20-30N and 20-30S) underwent a large-scale tropicalization from 1965 to 2011, in accordance with the findings of Cheung et al. (2013) [19].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Cheung et al. (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [19] Sokal RR. and Rohlf FJ. Biometry. W. H. Freeman and Co., New York 1995. <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC" xlink:type="simple">https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC</ext-link>.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: The species composition of longliner catches (%trop) reflects the distribution and abundance of tropical tuna populations, not only changes in fishing strategy or fleet behaviour.
- Interpretationreasoning
SST may be only a partial driver of the trends identified in the different oceans.
“Consequently, SST may be only a partial driver of the trends identified in the different oceans.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The hypothesis of a spatial displacement of the Pacific fishery to higher latitudes is supported by Bayesian analysis results that identify a constant spatio-temporal trend to higher latitudes.
“This last hypothesis is supported by Bayesian analysis results that identify a constant spatio-temporal trend to higher latitudes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
The decrease in tropical species in tropical areas is due to an increase in the contribution of bigeye tuna, particularly from the 1970s onwards.
“The decrease in tropical species in tropical areas is due to an increase of the contribution of bigeye tuna, particularly from the 1970’s onwards.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The tendency of tropical tuna populations to shift towards the poles appears to be particularly strong in the Atlantic Ocean.
“This tendency appears to be particularly strong in the Atlantic Ocean.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
In the Pacific, the clear increase in %trop along the time series is not related to a trend towards decreasing catches.
“In the Pacific, the clear increase in %trop along the time series is not related to a trend towards decreasing catches.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 17
- The quote only partly states this claim. 7
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 8
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe beta distribution is very flexible in terms of shape and fulfils the required characteristics for modeling proportions.
“The beta distribution contrasts with this and is very flexible in terms of shape and fulfils the required characteristics [22].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] I Paradinas, 2016, Identifying the best fishing-suitable areas under the new European discard ban, ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataA positive relationship for year appeared for almost all ocean models, although the pattern differed for the Indian Ocean in the northern hemisphere.
“A positive relationship for year appeared for almost all ocean models, although for the Indian the pattern was different in the northern hemisphere (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataWhen overall data were analyzed, the percentage of tropical tuna tended to increase in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
“In particular, the %trop tended to increase in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and decrease in the Indian ocean (Fig 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Indian Ocean southern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.19 (95% credible interval 1.09 to 1.75).
“The Indian Ocean showed the lowest increase, 1.25 in the northern hemisphere and 1.19 in the southern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataCatches showed an increasing trend only in the Pacific, both overall and in the subtropical areas.
“Catches showed an increasing trend only in the Pacific, both overall and in the subtropical areas, while a decreasing trend was found for the Atlantic and Indian oceans during recent decades (Fig 2 and Fig 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Pacific southern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.27 (95% credible interval 1.14 to 2.01).
“Similarly, in the Pacific, the increase was 1.34 in the northern hemisphere and 1.27 in the southern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Indian Ocean northern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.25 (95% credible interval 1.08 to 1.82), the lowest increase among the oceans.
“The Indian Ocean showed the lowest increase, 1.25 in the northern hemisphere and 1.19 in the southern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Atlantic northern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.46 (95% credible interval 1.15 to 2.36).
“In the Atlantic, results showed that for a one degree rise in SST the proportion of tropical tuna is expected to increase by 1.46 in the northern hemisphere and by 1.32 in the southern (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone givenIn the Indian Ocean, similarly to the Atlantic Ocean, tropical tuna catches showed a decreasing pattern, as did the fishing effort.
“Furthermore, similarly to the Atlantic Ocean, tropical tuna catches showed a decreasing pattern, as did the fishing effort.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Pacific northern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.34 (95% credible interval 1.12 to 1.72).
“Similarly, in the Pacific, the increase was 1.34 in the northern hemisphere and 1.27 in the southern.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningLatitude showed a negative relationship in the northern hemisphere and a positive pattern in the southern hemisphere, where negative values were used for latitudes.
“In particular, latitude showed a negative relationship in the northern hemisphere, against a positive pattern in the southern since negative values were used for southern hemisphere latitudes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the Atlantic southern hemisphere, a one degree rise in SST is expected to increase the proportion of tropical tuna by 1.32 (95% credible interval 1.15 to 1.95).
“In the Atlantic, results showed that for a one degree rise in SST the proportion of tropical tuna is expected to increase by 1.46 in the northern hemisphere and by 1.32 in the southern (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationTemperate tuna are found in waters as cold as 10°C or colder, but can also be found in tropical waters.
“Tropical tunas are found in waters with temperatures higher than 18°C (although they can dive to colder waters), whereas temperate tuna are found in waters as cold as 10°C or colder, but can also be found in tropical waters [14, 18].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [14] M Goujon, 2000, Biological characteristics of tuna
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [18] RW Brill, 1994, A review of temperature and oxygen tolerance studies of tunas pertinent to fisheries oceanography, movement models and stock assessments, Fish Oceanogr source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe arcsine square root transformation has drawbacks and inferences can be misleading.
“This kind of data has frequently been modeled by transforming the dependent variable using the arcsine square root transformation [19, 20]. However, the approach has several drawbacks and inferences can be misleading.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [19] Sokal RR. and Rohlf FJ. Biometry. W. H. Freeman and Co., New York 1995. <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC" xlink:type="simple">https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC</ext-link>.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [20] JH Zar, 1999, Biostatistical Analysis
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationTropical tunas are found in waters with temperatures higher than 18°C, although they can dive to colder waters.
“Tropical tunas are found in waters with temperatures higher than 18°C (although they can dive to colder waters), whereas temperate tuna are found in waters as cold as 10°C or colder, but can also be found in tropical waters [14, 18].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [14] M Goujon, 2000, Biological characteristics of tuna
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [18] RW Brill, 1994, A review of temperature and oxygen tolerance studies of tunas pertinent to fisheries oceanography, movement models and stock assessments, Fish Oceanogr source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationLocally weighted scatterplot smoothing (lowess) is an outlier-resistant method that estimates a polynomial regression curve using local fitting.
“we smoothed the time series using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (lowess), an outlier-resistant method that estimates a polynomial regression curve using local fitting [27].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [27] RB Cleveland, 1979, Robust locally-weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenData are analyzed on a yearly time scale and seasonal patterns can be lost in such an approach.
“Moreover, data are analyzed on a yearly time scale and seasonal patterns can be lost in such an approach.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningA large scale redistribution in fishery catches would affect the most vulnerable economies in the world.
“This would affect the most vulnerable economies in the world.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisereasoningThe symmetry of the normal distribution can result in nonsensical predictions, with confidence intervals outside the [0, 1] range.
“Unfortunately, the symmetry of the normal distribution can result in nonsensical predictions, which means that confidence intervals are outside the [0, 1] range.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationOcean warming has already been affecting global fisheries, resulting in an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes during the past four decades.
“That study showed that ocean warming has already been affecting global fisheries, resulting in an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes during the past four decades [19].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Sokal RR. and Rohlf FJ. Biometry. W. H. Freeman and Co., New York 1995. <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC" xlink:type="simple">https://books.google.es/books?id¼N6KCNw5NHNkC</ext-link>.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataIn the Pacific, the increase in effort and total catch together with %trop highlights a possible change in fisheries strategy or a spatial displacement of the fishery to higher latitudes.
“The effort and total catch increase together with %trop, highlighting a possible change in the fisheries strategy or a spatial displacement of the fishery to higher latitudes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationAlthough warming will be most pronounced at high latitudes, countries most vulnerable to warming-related effects on fisheries lie in the tropics.
“Although warming will be most pronounced at high latitudes, countries most vulnerable to warming-related effects on fisheries lie in the tropics [23].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] 2016, R: a language and environment for statistical computing
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationApplying a bootstrap technique with the percentile method to each time series yields a 95% confidence interval for the original lowess fit.
“In addition, we applied a bootstrap technique to each time series with the percentile method, in order to account for the variability in the original lowess fit. With this methodology, each series would have a 95% confidence interval for the original lowess [28, 29].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe reduction of tropical tuna catches in tropical areas of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans is due to populations shifting towards higher latitudes, since the poleward expansion of these tropical species did not increase their catches.
“At least in the Atlantic and Indian, our results indicate that tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas, as populations shift towards higher latitudes, since the expansion towards the poles of these tropical species did not increase their catches.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationVague zero-mean Gaussian priors with a variance of 100 were assigned to the fixed effects; these priors approximate non-informative priors designed to have little influence on the posterior distribution.
“Vague zero-mean Gaussian prior distributions with a variance of 100 were assigned for the fixed effects, as recommended by Held et al. (2010) [25]. These priors are approximations of non-informative priors designed to have little influence on posterior distribution.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenStock trends, catch regulations and market demands could also have significant effects on species targeting and catches.
“Firstly, stock trends, catch regulations and market demands could also have significant effects on species targeting and catches.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationIn the upper 75 m of the ocean, the global average warming trend has been 0.11°C per decade over the period 1971-2010.
“In the upper 75 m of the ocean, the global average warming trend has been 0.11°C per decade over the period 1971–2010 [3].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al. Observations: Ocean. In: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (Cambridge Univ Press, New York) 2013.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
The paper relies on this without support.
The percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches reflects the relative abundance or spatial distribution of tropical tuna populations.
“This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming.”
“Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The study area (subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean) is representative of global subtropical latitudes.
“This study shows the shift of tuna catches in subtropical latitudes on a global scale.”
“a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean”
The paper relies on this without support.
The observed trends in catch composition are not due to changes in fishing gear, regulations, or reporting.
“Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The species composition of longliner catches (%trop) reflects the distribution and abundance of tropical tuna populations, not only changes in fishing strategy or fleet behaviour.
“In addition, tropical tuna catches show a descending trend in the Atlantic, which may be taken as an indicator that the increased %trop was not related to a change in fishing strategy, at least in this ocean.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Tropical tunas are characterized by small to medium size, rapid growth, early age-at-maturity, long spawning duration and short life span.
“Tropical tunas are characterized by small to medium size, rapid growth, early age-at-maturity, long spawning duration and short life span.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Cheung et al. citation points to a different study
MinorThe discussion identifies reference 19 as Cheung et al. (2013), but reference 19 is Sokal and Rohlf (1995).
“in accordance with the findings of Cheung et al. (2013) [19].”
“19. Sokal RR. and Rohlf FJ. Biometry. W. H. Freeman and Co., New York 1995.”
Indian southern latitude is called an exception to a positive pattern
MinorThe preceding statement says latitude has a positive relationship in the southern hemisphere. Calling the Indian Ocean's positive southern-hemisphere relationship the only exception contradicts that description.
“The only exception was the positive relationship of the Indian Ocean in the southern hemisphere.”
“latitude showed a negative relationship in the northern hemisphere, against a positive pattern in the southern since negative values were used for southern hemisphere latitudes.”
Several Table 2 credible-interval bounds are reversed
MinorTable 2 labels its columns Q0.025 and Q0.975, but the Atlantic NorthH latitude row gives −1.09 for the lower quantile and −2.05 for the upper quantile. The same reversal occurs in five other rows.
“| | Lat | -1.42 | -1.09 | -2.05 |”
“| Model | Variable | Q0.5 | Q0.025 | Q0.975 |”
Figure 2 caption gives the wrong Indian Ocean start year
MinorThe methods specify that the Indian Ocean series begins in 1967, but the caption assigns a 1965 start to the time series for all three oceans.
“Figure: Fig 2 Smooth functions for sea surface temperature (SST), tropical tuna percentage in longliner catches (%trop), total catches and effort for the entire time series (1965–2011) for the three oceans: (A) Atlantic; (B) Pacific; (C) Indian.”
“during the period 1965–2011 (1967–2011 in the Indian Ocean)”
Indian southern SST estimate differs between prose and table
MinorThe results text reports 1.19 for the Indian Ocean southern hemisphere, whereas the selected-model summary reports 1.20.
“The Indian Ocean showed the lowest increase, 1.25 in the northern hemisphere and 1.19 in the southern.”
“| Indian SouthH | SST | 1.20 | 1.09 | 1.75 |”
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BackgroundLarge-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean
Erauskin‐Extramiana, M., Arrizabalaga, H., Hobday, A. J., Cabré, A., Ibaibarriaga, L., Arregui, I., Murua, H., & Chust, G. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14630 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
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BackgroundNot all who wander are lost: Improving spatial protection for large pelagic fishes
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BackgroundLate Cenozoic cooling restructured global marine plankton communities
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MethodInfluentialSea Surface Temperature and Tuna Catch in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Under Climate Change
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“Pelagic fisheries for tunas and related species represent a substantial proportion of marine fish production [4,22].”
InfluentialSocio‐ecological and economic aspects of tropical tuna fisheries in the Mozambique Channel
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Ocean-Related Effects of Climate Change on Society
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Modeling tropical tuna shifts: An inflated power logit regression approach
Queiroz, F. F., & Ferrari, S. L. P. (2024) · Biometrical Journal · doi:10.1002/bimj.202300288
“Tropical tunas are expected to be found in waters with temperatures higher than 18 ◦ C , whereas temperate tunas are found in waters as cold as 10 ◦ C or less (Monllor-Hurtado et al., 2017).”
BackgroundInfluentialJipanin, S. J., Sidik, M. J., & Salleh, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5126348
Silva, P. M., Borges, F. O., Pita, C., Costa, J. L., & Teixeira, C. M. (2025) · Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.1007/s10531-025-03121-x · Cited by 3 · see citing works
“Still, on a global scale, it was projected that the habitat of tropical tunas continues shifting poleward in response to climate change and ocean warming (Monllor-Hurtado et al. 2017).”
CPUE Trends and Seasonal Fishing of Yellowfin Tuna ( Thunnus albacares ) in Makassar Strait Waters
Hatmar, M. A., Jufri, A., Anwar, D. P., et al. (2026) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1603/1/012045
Zhang, J., Chen, X., Song, H., Zhang, H., Zhu, G., Teng, Y., & Shi, J. (2026) · Marine and Coastal Fisheries · doi:10.1093/mcfafs/vtaf048
Song, H., Zhang, J., Chen, X., Zhang, H.-L., & Shi, J. (2026) · Acta Oceanologica Sinica · doi:10.1007/s13131-025-2631-9
“…by rapid growth, high migratory, broad spatial distribution, and strong tolerance to temperature and dissolved oxygen variations (Dizon and Brill, 1979; Monllor-Hurtado et al., 2017; Murua et al., 2017), BET is one of the most economically important target species in global oceanic fisheries.”
- Authors
- Monllor-Hurtado, A., Pennino, M. G., & Sanchez-Lizaso, J. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Alicante (ES)
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2017-06-07
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- e0178196
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5462356
- OpenAlex
- W2623350510
- Semantic Scholar
- f7c90c1b02d28ee176a2a5f4a21faeba8154a9d7
- Cited by
- 54
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 2.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RUA, Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Alicante (Universidad de Alicante) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- tuna catch, ocean warming, climate change impacts on fisheries, tropical tuna, longline catch, range shifts, sea surface temperature, Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, western Pacific, catch trends
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Fisheries, Geography, Models, Theoretical, Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted, Oceans and Seas, Temperature, Time Factors, Tropical Climate, Tuna, Global Warming
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