Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean
Open accessAbstract
Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long‐term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end‐of‐the‐century changes based on a high‐greenhouse gas concentration scenario ( RCP 8.5). We created species distribution models using a long‐term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two‐step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end‐of‐the‐century (2080–2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.
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Erauskin-Extramiana, M., Chust, G., Arrizabalaga, H., Cheung, W. W. L., Santiago, J., Merino, G., & Fernandes-Salvador, J. A. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104055 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Erauskin‐Extramiana, M., Arrizabalaga, H., Hobday, A. J., Cabré, A., Ibaibarriaga, L., Arregui, I., Murua, H., & Chust, G.
- Affiliations
- AZTI, Marine Research Division Sukarrieta Basque Country Spain
- AZTI (ES)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Institute of Marine Sciences Passeig Marítim Barcelona Catalonia Spain
- AZTI, Marine Research Division Pasaia Basque Country Spain
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2019-04-19
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 2043-2060
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2935904309
- Semantic Scholar
- 3dddcd4a57308e01903a79133452ff9fff976b9a
- Cited by
- 176
- References
- 79
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 7.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- dspace.azti.es
- Licence
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- AZTI Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eusko Jaurlaritza
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- tuna, climate change, poleward range shift, species distribution modeling, relative abundance, RCP8.5 scenario, habitat suitability, skipjack tuna, yellowfin tuna, albacore tuna, Thunnus thynnus, southern bluefin tuna, bigeye tuna, exclusive economic zone, adaptive fisheries management, ocean warming
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Atlantic Ocean, Population Dynamics, Tuna, Ecosystem, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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