New evidence for Middle Bronze Age chronology from the Syro-Anatolian frontier
Open accessAbstract
Dates differ by up to 150 years in the protracted debate around the chronology of the Middle Bronze Age Near East. Here, the authors present radiocarbon and ceramic evidence from destroyed buildings at Zincirli, Türkiye, that support the Middle Chronology. Ceramics from late Middle Bronze Age sites in Syria and Anatolia, and Bayesian modelling of 18 well-stratified radiocarbon samples from site destruction contexts attributable to Hittite king Ḫattusili I, indicate a date in the later seventeenth century BC. Since the Northern Levant connects the Mesopotamian and Eastern Mediterranean second-millennium BC chronologies, this evidence supports the convergence of these long-debated schemas, with implications for the start of the Late Bronze Age and the rise of empires.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Radiocarbon and ceramic evidence from a late Middle Bronze Age destruction at Zincirli, Türkiye, supports the High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology for the Middle Bronze Age Near East. Bayesian modelling of destruction deposits places the event in the later seventeenth century BC, helping resolve a debate with dates differing by up to 150 years.
Key findings
- Bayesian modelling of 18 radiocarbon samples from Zincirli Area 2 gives a best date approximation for the MB II destruction of c. 1632–1610 BC (approximately 56.2% highest posterior density region).
- Preferred Models 2b and 3b yield most probable 68.3% ranges of 1637–1614 BC (95.4% 1670–1607 BC) and 1627–1608 BC (95.4% 1667–1646 [9.1%], 1643–1594 [86.4%] BC), respectively; the latest possible date under preferred models is c. 1594 BC at 95.4% probability.
- Ceramic parallels link the Zincirli destruction to final MB II assemblages at Tilmen Höyük, Alalakh VII, Ebla IIIB2, Kinet Höyük Period 16, Umm el-Marra IIIa–c, Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük Building VII and Lidar Höyük Phase 5/Level 8, and to Kültepe Karum Ia via bichrome-painted flasks.
- The authors conclude the evidence is consistent only with the Syro-Mesopotamian High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology, with implications for the start of the Late Bronze Age and the rise of empires.
Methods
- Excavations at Zincirli (2015–2018) uncovered MB II Buildings DD/I and DD/II in Area 2, destroyed by fire, preserving carbonised botanical remains and material culture assemblages.
- Eighteen radiocarbon samples were submitted; 11 came from three ceramic vessels containing bitter vetch or free-threshing wheat seeds from the destruction complex, with additional samples from later and earlier bracketing contexts.
- The authors used Bayesian chronological modelling in OxCal v4.4.4 with IntCal20, curve resolution set at one year, integrating stratigraphic sequence information; they compared multiple models, including exclusion of a residual sample (OxA-36326) and moving/downweighting Tübitak-0461.
Limitations
- The paper states that possible small regional radiocarbon offsets and calibration-curve issues were considered in Models 3a and 3b, but that these offset values are probably over-estimations for the Zincirli context.
- The paper notes that no samples were available from the Phase 4 period before its destruction, so its calendar dates and duration were quantified with OxCal Date and Interval queries rather than direct dating.
- Evident from the text: the attribution of the destruction to Ḫattusili I rests on ceramic synchronisms and historical/archaeological links rather than direct textual evidence at Zincirli, and the modelling assumes the seeds were stored for a few years at most and carbonised in a single conflagration.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
4 of 30 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Studies linking textual and archaeological evidence from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük have created an independent dating framework for Mesopotamian chronology.
“For the Mesopotamian chronology, studies linking textual and archaeological evidence, especially from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük (Türkiye), with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük, have created an independent dating framework (Barjamovic et al. 2012;Manning et al. 2016Manning et al. , 2020)).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites Barjamovic et al. 2012
- cites Manning et al. 2016 source
- cites Manning et al. 2020 source
The Results sections on the Anatolian Middle Bronze Age tree-ring series and Mesopotamian chronology link textual and archaeological associations at Kültepe and Acemhöyük with tree-ring and radiocarbon dates to assess Mesopotamian chronology. Our copy does not identify Mari as part of that evidence, so the named-site detail is not fully supported; page numbers are unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingcitation
These vessel types offer comparisons with final MB II repertoires at Tilmen Höyük, Alalakh, Ebla, Kinet Höyük, Umm el-Marra, Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük and Lidar Höyük.
“These offer comparisons with the final MB II repertoires at Tilmen Höyük (Levels IIb-c), Alalakh (Level VII), Ebla (Mardikh IIIB2), Kinet Höyük (Period 16), Umm el-Marra (Period IIIa-c), Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük (Building VII) and Lidar Höyük (Phase 5/Level 8) (Figure 5B-I, K-M, O-P; Morgan & Soldi 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Morgan & Soldi 2021
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
The assemblage of complete vessels from Zincirli Area 2 allows comparison with late MB II sites across the Northern Levant and Cilicia.
“The assemblage of complete vessels from Zincirli Area 2 allows comparison with late MB II sites across the Northern Levant and Cilicia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The assemblage of pottery from the Zincirli destruction affords key synchronisms with final Middle Bronze Age strata at other sites in the Northern Levant, Cilicia and Anatolia.
“The destruction is dated with unusual precision by 11 short-lived radiocarbon samples from closed contexts, and the assemblage of pottery found therein affords key synchronisms with final Middle Bronze Age strata at other sites in the Northern Levant, Cilicia and Anatolia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A synchronism with Middle Bronze Age Anatolia is offered by single-handled globular 'pilgrim' flasks, of which Complex DD yielded many examples, including seven complete and in situ.
“A synchronism with Middle Bronze Age Anatolia is offered by single-handled globular 'pilgrim' flasks, of which Complex DD yielded many examples, including seven complete and in situ (Figure 6A & D).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
The most probable 68.3 per cent HPD region in Model 3b lies at 1627-1608 BC (95.4% range 1667-1646 [9.1%], 1643-1594 [86.4%] BC).
“The most probable 68.3 per cent highest posterior density region in Model 3b lies at 1627-1608 BC (95.4% range 1667-1646 [9.1%], 1643-1594 [86.4%]BC).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Findingown data
The approximately 73.2% highest posterior density range from the combination of all eight modelled dating probability distributions for the Phase 4 Destruction Boundary lies c. 1662-1606 BC.
“The approximately 73.2% highest posterior density (hpd) range from the combination of all these probability distributions lies c. 1662-1606 BC”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
All models yield similar results: the most probable date range (68.3% HPD) for the Phase 4 destruction falls in, or mainly indicates, the mid to later seventeenth century BC.
“All models yield similar results: the most probable date range (68.3% highest posterior density) for the Phase 4 destruction falls in, or mainly indicates, the mid to later seventeenth century BC (Figures 9a & S5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Findingown data
Bayesian chronological modelling of radiocarbon dates on short-lived samples from closed contexts in destruction deposits at Zincirli gives the most precise dates yet available for the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age in the Northern Levant.
“Bayesian chronological modelling of radiocarbon dates on short-lived samples from closed contexts in destruction deposits at Zincirli gives the most precise dates yet available for the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age in the Northern Levant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Even allowing for possible small regional radiocarbon offsets and calibration-curve issues, the modelled age ranges are only slightly later, perhaps indicating a most probable 68.3 per cent date range in the later seventeenth century BC.
“Even allowing for possible small regional radiocarbon offsets and calibration-curve issues (Models 3a and 3b), the modelled age ranges are only slightly later, perhaps indicating a most probable 68.3 per cent date range in the later seventeenth century BC.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Findingown data
The combination of probability from all models gives a smallest continuous most probable and greater than 50 per cent probability region c. 1662-1606 BC, containing approximately 73.2 per cent of the probability.
“The combination of the probability from all models gives a smallest continuous most probable and greater than 50 per cent probability region c. 1662-1606 BC, containing approximately 73.2 per cent of the probability (Figure 9a).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Findingown data
The combination of the preferred 'b' approach models, using Model 1b excluding the residual OxA-36326, Model 2b and Model 3b, finds that the single most likely, approximately 56.2% hpd range lies c. 1632-1610 BC.
“the combination of the preferred 'b' approach models, using Model 1b excluding the residual OxA-36326, Model 2b and Model 3b, finds that the single most likely, approximately 56.2% hpd range lies c. 1632-1610 BC”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The most probable 59.8 per cent HPD region in Model 2b lies at 1637-1614 BC (95.4% range 1670-1607 BC).
“The most probable 59.8 per cent highest posterior density region in Model 2b lies at 1637-1614 BC (95.4% range 1670-1607 BC).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Interpretationreasoning
If Tilmen Höyük is Zalb/war, the destruction of its MB II stratum can probably be attributed to the attack of Hattusili I.
“If Tilmen Höyük is Zalb/war, the destruction of its MB II stratum can probably be attributed to the attack of Ḫ attusili I.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The ceramic similarities provide a chronological link with historical events.
“The ceramic similarities provide a chronological link with historical events.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
New results from the Northern Levant affirm higher dates for the Middle Bronze Age.
“New results from the Northern Levant-the region that links the Mesopotamian and Eastern Mediterranean chronologies-affirm these higher dates for the Middle Bronze Age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
The destruction at Zincirli is dated with unusual precision by 11 short-lived radiocarbon samples from closed contexts.
“The destruction is dated with unusual precision by 11 short-lived radiocarbon samples from closed contexts, and the assemblage of pottery found therein affords key synchronisms with final Middle Bronze Age strata at other sites in the Northern Levant, Cilicia and Anatolia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
- Premisecitation
Pilgrim flasks have been recovered from Karum levels II and I at Kültepe-Kanesh, where they were identified as Northern Levantine imports.
“They have also been recovered from Karum levels II and I at Kültepe-Kanesh, where they were identified as Northern Levantine imports (Emre 1994(Emre , 1995)).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Emre 1994
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Emre 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Revision of the Tell el-Dabʿa chronology raises the end of the Middle Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean to c. 1600 BC.
“Meanwhile, revision of the Tell el-Dabʿa chronology, reconciling its radiocarbon dates and archaeo-historical chronology with new radiocarbon dates from sites in the Central and Southern Levant, raises the end of the Middle Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean to c. 1600 BC (Höflmayer et al. 2016a(Höflmayer et al. , 2016b;;Höflmayer 2019;Höflmayer & Manning 2022;pace Bietak 2021).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Höflmayer et al. 2016a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Höflmayer et al. 2016b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Höflmayer & Manning 2022 source
- Premisecitation
Zalba(r) appears as an initial target of Hittite king Hattusili I, whose Annals recount his destruction of the city.
“Zalba(r) appears as an initial target of the Hittite king Ḫ attusili I (conventionally, hMC c. 1650-1620 BC), whose Annals (CTH 4, §2-3, A i 9-14; Košak et al. 2021) recount his destruction of the city (Beckman 2006: 219-20).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Košak et al. 2021
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Beckman 2006
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Bichrome-painted flasks such as those at Zincirli are otherwise found only at Kültepe Karum Ia (or sometimes Level I without specification), as well as Umm el-Marra.
“Bichrome-painted flasks, such as those at Zincirli, are otherwise found only at Kültepe Karum Ia (or sometimes Level I without specification) (type A1a in Emre 1995), as well as Umm el-Marra (G.Schwartz, pers. comm.).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Emre 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites G. Schwartz, pers. comm.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
The transition between Karum Ib and Ia occurred around the last decade of the eighteenth century (hMC).
“The transition between Karum Ib and Ia occurred around the last decade of the eighteenth century (hMC;Barjamovic et al. 2012: 51-52).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Barjamovic et al. 2012: 51-52
- Study design and conductown data
The radiocarbon dates from Zincirli were obtained on short-lived samples from closed contexts in destruction deposits.
“Bayesian chronological modelling of radiocarbon dates on short-lived samples from closed contexts in destruction deposits at Zincirli gives the most precise dates yet available for the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age in the Northern Levant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
New high-precision dates from Zincirli support accumulating radiocarbon evidence from other Northern Levantine sites that presents a generally consistent picture for MB II absolute chronology.
“The new high-precision dates from Zincirli support accumulating radiocarbon evidence from other Northern Levantine sites that presents a generally consistent picture for MB II absolute chronology (Figure 10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given
Recent upward revision of the Eastern Mediterranean chronology also supports a seventeenth-century BC date.
“As noted above, recent upward revision of the Eastern Mediterranean chronology also supports a seventeenth-century BC date.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premiseown data
Radiocarbon results from final Middle Bronze Age destructions at Kinet Höyük, Ebla, Oylum Höyük, Umm el-Marra, and Lidar Höyük are mostly compatible with a late seventeenth-century BC date for this horizon.
“Radiocarbon results from final Middle Bronze Age destructions at Kinet Höyük in Cilicia, Ebla (Mardikh IIIB2), Oylum Höyük and Umm el-Marra to the south, and Lidar Höyük on the Euphrates (Figure 10), are also mostly compatible with a late seventeenth-century BC date for this horizon.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The destruction of Zincirli Complex DD can be synchronised on archaeological and ceramic grounds with destruction layers attributed to the Hittite campaigns against the Northern Levant, marking the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age.
“The destruction of Zincirli Complex DD can be synchronised on archaeological and ceramic grounds with destruction layers attributed to the Hittite campaigns against the Northern Levant, marking the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The ceramic parallels suggest a direct chronological link between these two contexts.
“suggesting a direct chronological link between these two contexts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Emre 1995
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Study design and conductown data
Tübitak-0461 is moved into the MBII destruction phase in Models 2a, 3a, 2b and 3b.
“Tübitak-0461 is moved into the MBII destruction phase in Models 2a, 3a, 2b and 3b, as indicated by the dashed red arrow.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
OxA-36326 is excluded in Models 2a, 2b, 3a and 3b as a probably residual EBIV sample.
“OxA-36326 is excluded in Models 2a, 2b, 3a and 3b as a probably residual EBIV sample, as indicated by the orange arrow.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The probable radiocarbon date for Zincirli's destruction, c. 1632-1610 BC, presents the most precise evidence thus far for the absolute chronology of these events.
“The probable radiocarbon date for Zincirli's destruction, c. 1632-1610 BC, presents the most precise evidence thus far for the absolute chronology of these events.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The very few later dates are likely outliers.
“The very few later dates are likely outliers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Their attestation at Zincirli suggests the possibility of an end date for Karum Ia that is even slightly later, in the reign of Hattusili I.
“Their attestation at Zincirli suggests the possibility of an end date for Karum Ia that is even slightly later, in the reign of Ḫ attusili I.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
New radiocarbon data from both Syro-Anatolia and Egypt find no contradiction at sites such as Alalakh, where the two chronological systems overlap.
“New radiocarbon data from both Syro-Anatolia and Egypt thus find no contradiction at sites such as Alalakh, where the two chronological systems overlap.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The new radiocarbon evidence from Zincirli and other sites in this region connecting the Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, in concert with radiocarbon and dendrochronological evidence from Anatolia, the Southern Levant and Egypt, is consistent only with the Syro-Mesopotamian High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology.
“Significantly, the new radiocarbon evidence from Zincirli and other sites in this region connecting the Near East and Eastern Mediterranean-in concert with radiocarbon and dendrochronological evidence from Anatolia, the Southern Levant and Egypt-is consistent only with the Syro-Mesopotamian High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Samples from later and earlier contexts bracket the destruction date.
“Samples from later and earlier contexts bracket the destruction date.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Zincirli appears to have been part of the production region for this commodity.
“Zincirli appears to have been part of the production region for this commodity (Morgan & Richardson 2020).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Morgan & Richardson 2020 source
- May combine two claims. 14
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 3
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationFollowing the Eastern Mediterranean low chronology, this would be c.1710-1650 BC, while modelling of radiocarbon dates at Tell el-Dabʿa indicates ages a century earlier, between 1872-1752 and 1813-1710 BC, at 95.4% probability.
“Following the Eastern Mediterranean low chronology advocated by Hazor's excavator, this would be c.1710-1650 BC, while modelling of radiocarbon dates at Tell el-Dabʿa indicates ages a century earlier, between 1872-1752 (G/1-3 to F Boundary) and 1813-1710 BC (E/3 to E/2 Boundary), at 95.4 per cent probability (following revision of Kutschera et al. 2012by Höflmayer & Manning 2022).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Kutschera et al. 2012 source
The Discussion and Figure 4 caption report that Tell el-Daba radiocarbon dates are older than the archaeological-historical chronology; the Discussion estimates an offset centred on 120 years. The site chronology places the relevant phases around 1710–1650 BC. Our copy does not give the two claimed 95.4% boundary ranges, which the citing sentence explicitly attributes to a later revision rather than to Kutschera et al. alone. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Höflmayer & Manning 2022 source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThese strata had been dated to c. 1530-1470 BC in the historical chronology, whereas modelled radiocarbon dates place them at 1679-1595 and 1635-1546 BC at 95.4% probability.
“These strata had been dated to c. 1530-1470 BC (early Eighteenth Dynasty) in the historical chronology (Kutschera et al. 2012: fig.3), whereas modelled radiocarbon dates place them at 1679-1595 (Strata D/2 to D/1 Boundary) and 1635-1546 BC (start Stratum C/2 Boundary) at 95.4 per cent probability (following revision of Kutschera et al. 2012by Höflmayer & Manning 2022).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
FindingcitationExcavations at Zincirli uncovered MB II buildings (Buildings DD/I and DD/II) destroyed by an intense fire that preserved extensive carbonised botanical remains and left large material culture assemblages.
“Excavations on the high north-eastern part of the Zincirli mound (Area 2 in Figure 3) between 2015 and 2018 uncovered MB II buildings (Buildings DD/I and DD/II: Area 2, Phase 4), which were destroyed by an intense fire that preserved extensive carbonised botanical remains and left large material culture assemblages in several rooms (Morgan & Soldi 2021) (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Morgan & Soldi 2021
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAn olive pit from debris above the floor of Room DD2 was found to date to the third millennium BC and was thus apparently residual in the collapsed material.
“In addition, an olive pit from debris above the floor of Room DD2 was found to date to the third millennium BC and was thus apparently residual in the collapsed material (probably relating to EB IV activity).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningCombining Models 1b (excluding OxA-36326), 2b and 3b, a single most probable approximately 56.2 per cent HPD region lies c. 1632-1610 BC; this is the best date approximation for the MB II destruction at Zincirli.
“Combining Models 1b (excluding OxA-36326), 2b and 3b, a single most probable approximately 56.2 per cent highest posterior density region lies c. 1632-1610 BC (Figure 9b); we use this as our best date approximation for the MB II destruction at Zincirli.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe independent dating framework aligns best with the High-Middle Chronology (hMC) or Low-Middle Chronology (lMC).
“This aligns best with the High-Middle Chronology (hMC) or Low-Middle Chronology (lMC) (see Roaf 2012;de Jong 2012de Jong -2013de Jong , 2016de Jong -2017;;Höflmayer & Manning 2022)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationMiddle Bronze Age Zincirli was probably an outpost of Tilmen Höyük, likely the city Zalwar or Zalba(r).
“Middle Bronze Age Zincirli was probably an outpost of Tilmen Höyük, a fortified palatial centre 8km to the south-likely the city Zalwar or Zalba(r) (Forlanini 1985: 55;Miller & Corti 2017; Figure 1a).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Forlanini 1985
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Miller & Corti 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationContainers of this type were widely distributed along the Euphrates from the late Early Bronze Age through to the Middle Bronze Age, and probably held wine.
“Containers of this type-mostly unpainted-were widely distributed along the Euphrates from the late Early Bronze Age through to the Middle Bronze Age, and probably held wine (Figure 6E-H) (Morgan & Soldi 2021).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Morgan & Soldi 2021
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Middle Bronze Age evidence has floated in absolute calendar time, with competing proposals differing by up to 150 years.
“Consequently, despite a century of debate, the Middle Bronze Age evidence has floated in absolute calendar time, with competing proposals differing by up to 150 years (Pruzsinszky 2009) (Figure 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Pruzsinszky 2009 source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe hMC and lMC put the death of Assyrian king Šamši-Adad I in the eighteenth year of Hammurabi of Babylon at 1776 or 1768 BC respectively.
“which put the key synchronism of the death of Assyrian king Šamši-Adad I in the eighteenth year of the reign of Hammurabi of Babylon at, respectively, 1776 or 1768 BC (using dates from Barjamovic et al. 2012; different interpretations push these dates very slightly up or down).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Barjamovic et al. 2012
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAs this destruction probably occurred in the reign of Hattusili I, the Zincirli dates affirm the traditional estimate for this king's reign according to the hMC or lMC, one to two generations (25-50 years) before the sack of Babylon by Mursili I in 1595/1587 BC.
“As this destruction probably occurred in the reign of Ḫ attusili I, the Zincirli dates affirm the traditional estimate for this king's reign according to the hMC or lMC, one to two generations (25-50 years) before the sack of Babylon by Mursili I in 1595/1587 BC.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThis result points to the resolution of a century of scholarly debate.
“This result points to the resolution of a century of scholarly debate.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataCompared with these datasets, the set of short-lived samples in closed contexts from Zincirli's destruction deposits provides a better-defined and more robust indication for the date of the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age, with preferred Models 2b and 3b pointing to c. 1594 BC as a latest possible date (95.4% probability).
“Compared with these various datasets, the set of short-lived samples in closed contexts from Zincirli's destruction deposits provides a better-defined and more robust indication for the date of the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age, with preferred Models 2b and 3b (Table 1) pointing to c. 1594 BC as a latest possible date (95.4% probability).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationnone givenThe green gradient approximates the apparent best fit with the majority of dates reported.
“The green gradient approximates the apparent best fit with the majority of dates reported.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAll elements in the models have Convergence (C) ≥95.
“All elements with Convergence (C) ≥95.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisenone givenCypriot Bichrome ware, which begins in Alalakh Level VI, is also found in Tell el-Dabʿa Strata D/1 and C/3.
“Cypriot Bichrome ware, which begins in Alalakh Level VI, is also found in Tell el-Dabʿa Strata D/1 and C/3.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationHazor is attested in Mari texts of the reigns of Šamši-Adad I and Zimri-Lim and has yielded MB IIB and IIC ceramics contemporaneous with Tell el-Dabʿa Strata F and E/3.
“Likewise, Hazor is attested in Mari texts of the reigns of Šamši-Adad I and Zimri-Lim and has yielded MB IIB and IIC ceramics contemporaneous with Tell el-Dabʿa Strata F and E/3 (Ben-Tor 2004).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Ben-Tor 2004
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
The authors state this as an assumption.
The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
“We assume that these seeds were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Not all 18 radiocarbon samples came from destruction contexts
MinorThe abstract describes all 18 samples as coming from destruction contexts, but the methods state that some came from earlier construction fill. Other samples came from later Iron Age contexts.
“Bayesian modelling of 18 well-stratified radiocarbon samples from site destruction contexts attributable to Hittite king Ḫ attusili I”
“One barley seed and three charcoal fragments were taken from fill layers on which Middle Bronze Age Complex DD was constructed, excavated in a probe on its eastern preserved edge.”
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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“The complex was destroyed by an intense conflagration in the late seventeenth century BC, probably in the campaigns of the Hittite king Ḫattušili I against north Syria (Herrmann and Schloen 2021; Herrmann et al.”
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“It is suggested that the destruction at Zincirli may well be linked to these Hittite attacks, which most probably happened between 1632 and 1610 cal bce (Herrmann et al. 2023).”
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- Authors
- Herrmann, V. R., Manning, S. W., Morgan, K. R., Soldi, S., & Schloen, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Tübingen (DE)
- Cyprus Institute (CY)
- Duke University (US)
- National Research Council (IT)
- University of Chicago (US)
- Corresponding author
- Herrmann, Virginia R.
- ORCID
- Manning, Sturt W.
- Venue
- Antiquity
- Publisher
- Antiquity Publications
- Published
- 2023-03-29
- Volume
- 97
- Issue
- 393
- Pages
- 654-673
- ISSN
- 0003-598X (ISSN-L)
- 1745-1744
- OpenAlex
- W4361290183
- Semantic Scholar
- c172cfd606b06c3d984756eed6628ccf736b8223
- Cited by
- 7
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2
- FWCI
- 7.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Antiquity (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
- Funders
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Computational Research on the Ancient Near East (C)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (HE 7517/2)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and History
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Near East History
- Keywords
- radiocarbon dating, ceramic chronology, Northern Levant, Hittite Empire
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-17.
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