Cited by 7Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and HistoryArchaeology and ancient environmental studiesAncient Near East History

New evidence for Middle Bronze Age chronology from the Syro-Anatolian frontier

Open access
Herrmann, Virginia R., Manning, Sturt W., Morgan, Kathryn R., Soldi, Sebastiano, Schloen, David·2023·Antiquity

Abstract

Dates differ by up to 150 years in the protracted debate around the chronology of the Middle Bronze Age Near East. Here, the authors present radiocarbon and ceramic evidence from destroyed buildings at Zincirli, Türkiye, that support the Middle Chronology. Ceramics from late Middle Bronze Age sites in Syria and Anatolia, and Bayesian modelling of 18 well-stratified radiocarbon samples from site destruction contexts attributable to Hittite king Ḫattusili I, indicate a date in the later seventeenth century BC. Since the Northern Levant connects the Mesopotamian and Eastern Mediterranean second-millennium BC chronologies, this evidence supports the convergence of these long-debated schemas, with implications for the start of the Late Bronze Age and the rise of empires.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Radiocarbon and ceramic evidence from a late Middle Bronze Age destruction at Zincirli, Türkiye, supports the High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology for the Middle Bronze Age Near East. Bayesian modelling of destruction deposits places the event in the later seventeenth century BC, helping resolve a debate with dates differing by up to 150 years.

Key findings

  • Bayesian modelling of 18 radiocarbon samples from Zincirli Area 2 gives a best date approximation for the MB II destruction of c. 1632–1610 BC (approximately 56.2% highest posterior density region).
  • Preferred Models 2b and 3b yield most probable 68.3% ranges of 1637–1614 BC (95.4% 1670–1607 BC) and 1627–1608 BC (95.4% 1667–1646 [9.1%], 1643–1594 [86.4%] BC), respectively; the latest possible date under preferred models is c. 1594 BC at 95.4% probability.
  • Ceramic parallels link the Zincirli destruction to final MB II assemblages at Tilmen Höyük, Alalakh VII, Ebla IIIB2, Kinet Höyük Period 16, Umm el-Marra IIIa–c, Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük Building VII and Lidar Höyük Phase 5/Level 8, and to Kültepe Karum Ia via bichrome-painted flasks.
  • The authors conclude the evidence is consistent only with the Syro-Mesopotamian High-Middle/Low-Middle Chronology, with implications for the start of the Late Bronze Age and the rise of empires.

Methods

  • Excavations at Zincirli (2015–2018) uncovered MB II Buildings DD/I and DD/II in Area 2, destroyed by fire, preserving carbonised botanical remains and material culture assemblages.
  • Eighteen radiocarbon samples were submitted; 11 came from three ceramic vessels containing bitter vetch or free-threshing wheat seeds from the destruction complex, with additional samples from later and earlier bracketing contexts.
  • The authors used Bayesian chronological modelling in OxCal v4.4.4 with IntCal20, curve resolution set at one year, integrating stratigraphic sequence information; they compared multiple models, including exclusion of a residual sample (OxA-36326) and moving/downweighting Tübitak-0461.

Limitations

  • The paper states that possible small regional radiocarbon offsets and calibration-curve issues were considered in Models 3a and 3b, but that these offset values are probably over-estimations for the Zincirli context.
  • The paper notes that no samples were available from the Phase 4 period before its destruction, so its calendar dates and duration were quantified with OxCal Date and Interval queries rather than direct dating.
  • Evident from the text: the attribution of the destruction to Ḫattusili I rests on ceramic synchronisms and historical/archaeological links rather than direct textual evidence at Zincirli, and the modelling assumes the seeds were stored for a few years at most and carbonised in a single conflagration.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.15184/aqy.2023.30

Cites

40 of 40 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

4 of 30 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Studies linking textual and archaeological evidence from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük have created an independent dating framework for Mesopotamian chronology.

    “For the Mesopotamian chronology, studies linking textual and archaeological evidence, especially from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük (Türkiye), with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük, have created an independent dating framework (Barjamovic et al. 2012;Manning et al. 2016Manning et al. , 2020)).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Barjamovic et al. 2012
    • cites Manning et al. 2016 source
    • cites Manning et al. 2020 source

      The Results sections on the Anatolian Middle Bronze Age tree-ring series and Mesopotamian chronology link textual and archaeological associations at Kültepe and Acemhöyük with tree-ring and radiocarbon dates to assess Mesopotamian chronology. Our copy does not identify Mari as part of that evidence, so the named-site detail is not fully supported; page numbers are unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Findingcitation

    These vessel types offer comparisons with final MB II repertoires at Tilmen Höyük, Alalakh, Ebla, Kinet Höyük, Umm el-Marra, Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük and Lidar Höyük.

    “These offer comparisons with the final MB II repertoires at Tilmen Höyük (Levels IIb-c), Alalakh (Level VII), Ebla (Mardikh IIIB2), Kinet Höyük (Period 16), Umm el-Marra (Period IIIa-c), Zeytinli Bahçe Höyük (Building VII) and Lidar Höyük (Phase 5/Level 8) (Figure 5B-I, K-M, O-P; Morgan & Soldi 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Morgan & Soldi 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Findingown data

    The assemblage of complete vessels from Zincirli Area 2 allows comparison with late MB II sites across the Northern Levant and Cilicia.

    “The assemblage of complete vessels from Zincirli Area 2 allows comparison with late MB II sites across the Northern Levant and Cilicia.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The assemblage of pottery from the Zincirli destruction affords key synchronisms with final Middle Bronze Age strata at other sites in the Northern Levant, Cilicia and Anatolia.

    “The destruction is dated with unusual precision by 11 short-lived radiocarbon samples from closed contexts, and the assemblage of pottery found therein affords key synchronisms with final Middle Bronze Age strata at other sites in the Northern Levant, Cilicia and Anatolia.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    A synchronism with Middle Bronze Age Anatolia is offered by single-handled globular 'pilgrim' flasks, of which Complex DD yielded many examples, including seven complete and in situ.

    “A synchronism with Middle Bronze Age Anatolia is offered by single-handled globular 'pilgrim' flasks, of which Complex DD yielded many examples, including seven complete and in situ (Figure 6A & D).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 14
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 3
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Following the Eastern Mediterranean low chronology, this would be c.1710-1650 BC, while modelling of radiocarbon dates at Tell el-Dabʿa indicates ages a century earlier, between 1872-1752 and 1813-1710 BC, at 95.4% probability.

    “Following the Eastern Mediterranean low chronology advocated by Hazor's excavator, this would be c.1710-1650 BC, while modelling of radiocarbon dates at Tell el-Dabʿa indicates ages a century earlier, between 1872-1752 (G/1-3 to F Boundary) and 1813-1710 BC (E/3 to E/2 Boundary), at 95.4 per cent probability (following revision of Kutschera et al. 2012by Höflmayer & Manning 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kutschera et al. 2012 source

      The Discussion and Figure 4 caption report that Tell el-Daba radiocarbon dates are older than the archaeological-historical chronology; the Discussion estimates an offset centred on 120 years. The site chronology places the relevant phases around 1710–1650 BC. Our copy does not give the two claimed 95.4% boundary ranges, which the citing sentence explicitly attributes to a later revision rather than to Kutschera et al. alone. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Höflmayer & Manning 2022 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    These strata had been dated to c. 1530-1470 BC in the historical chronology, whereas modelled radiocarbon dates place them at 1679-1595 and 1635-1546 BC at 95.4% probability.

    “These strata had been dated to c. 1530-1470 BC (early Eighteenth Dynasty) in the historical chronology (Kutschera et al. 2012: fig.3), whereas modelled radiocarbon dates place them at 1679-1595 (Strata D/2 to D/1 Boundary) and 1635-1546 BC (start Stratum C/2 Boundary) at 95.4 per cent probability (following revision of Kutschera et al. 2012by Höflmayer & Manning 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Kutschera et al. 2012 source
    • cites Höflmayer & Manning 2022 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Excavations at Zincirli uncovered MB II buildings (Buildings DD/I and DD/II) destroyed by an intense fire that preserved extensive carbonised botanical remains and left large material culture assemblages.

    “Excavations on the high north-eastern part of the Zincirli mound (Area 2 in Figure 3) between 2015 and 2018 uncovered MB II buildings (Buildings DD/I and DD/II: Area 2, Phase 4), which were destroyed by an intense fire that preserved extensive carbonised botanical remains and left large material culture assemblages in several rooms (Morgan & Soldi 2021) (Figure 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Morgan & Soldi 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    An olive pit from debris above the floor of Room DD2 was found to date to the third millennium BC and was thus apparently residual in the collapsed material.

    “In addition, an olive pit from debris above the floor of Room DD2 was found to date to the third millennium BC and was thus apparently residual in the collapsed material (probably relating to EB IV activity).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    Combining Models 1b (excluding OxA-36326), 2b and 3b, a single most probable approximately 56.2 per cent HPD region lies c. 1632-1610 BC; this is the best date approximation for the MB II destruction at Zincirli.

    “Combining Models 1b (excluding OxA-36326), 2b and 3b, a single most probable approximately 56.2 per cent highest posterior density region lies c. 1632-1610 BC (Figure 9b); we use this as our best date approximation for the MB II destruction at Zincirli.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The independent dating framework aligns best with the High-Middle Chronology (hMC) or Low-Middle Chronology (lMC).

    “This aligns best with the High-Middle Chronology (hMC) or Low-Middle Chronology (lMC) (see Roaf 2012;de Jong 2012de Jong -2013de Jong , 2016de Jong -2017;;Höflmayer & Manning 2022)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Roaf 2012 source
    • cites de Jong 2012-2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Höflmayer & Manning 2022 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Middle Bronze Age Zincirli was probably an outpost of Tilmen Höyük, likely the city Zalwar or Zalba(r).

    “Middle Bronze Age Zincirli was probably an outpost of Tilmen Höyük, a fortified palatial centre 8km to the south-likely the city Zalwar or Zalba(r) (Forlanini 1985: 55;Miller & Corti 2017; Figure 1a).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Forlanini 1985

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Miller & Corti 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Containers of this type were widely distributed along the Euphrates from the late Early Bronze Age through to the Middle Bronze Age, and probably held wine.

    “Containers of this type-mostly unpainted-were widely distributed along the Euphrates from the late Early Bronze Age through to the Middle Bronze Age, and probably held wine (Figure 6E-H) (Morgan & Soldi 2021).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Morgan & Soldi 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Middle Bronze Age evidence has floated in absolute calendar time, with competing proposals differing by up to 150 years.

    “Consequently, despite a century of debate, the Middle Bronze Age evidence has floated in absolute calendar time, with competing proposals differing by up to 150 years (Pruzsinszky 2009) (Figure 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pruzsinszky 2009 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The hMC and lMC put the death of Assyrian king Šamši-Adad I in the eighteenth year of Hammurabi of Babylon at 1776 or 1768 BC respectively.

    “which put the key synchronism of the death of Assyrian king Šamši-Adad I in the eighteenth year of the reign of Hammurabi of Babylon at, respectively, 1776 or 1768 BC (using dates from Barjamovic et al. 2012; different interpretations push these dates very slightly up or down).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Barjamovic et al. 2012
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    As this destruction probably occurred in the reign of Hattusili I, the Zincirli dates affirm the traditional estimate for this king's reign according to the hMC or lMC, one to two generations (25-50 years) before the sack of Babylon by Mursili I in 1595/1587 BC.

    “As this destruction probably occurred in the reign of Ḫ attusili I, the Zincirli dates affirm the traditional estimate for this king's reign according to the hMC or lMC, one to two generations (25-50 years) before the sack of Babylon by Mursili I in 1595/1587 BC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This result points to the resolution of a century of scholarly debate.

    “This result points to the resolution of a century of scholarly debate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Compared with these datasets, the set of short-lived samples in closed contexts from Zincirli's destruction deposits provides a better-defined and more robust indication for the date of the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age, with preferred Models 2b and 3b pointing to c. 1594 BC as a latest possible date (95.4% probability).

    “Compared with these various datasets, the set of short-lived samples in closed contexts from Zincirli's destruction deposits provides a better-defined and more robust indication for the date of the final phase of the Middle Bronze Age, with preferred Models 2b and 3b (Table 1) pointing to c. 1594 BC as a latest possible date (95.4% probability).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    The green gradient approximates the apparent best fit with the majority of dates reported.

    “The green gradient approximates the apparent best fit with the majority of dates reported.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    All elements in the models have Convergence (C) ≥95.

    “All elements with Convergence (C) ≥95.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Cypriot Bichrome ware, which begins in Alalakh Level VI, is also found in Tell el-Dabʿa Strata D/1 and C/3.

    “Cypriot Bichrome ware, which begins in Alalakh Level VI, is also found in Tell el-Dabʿa Strata D/1 and C/3.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Hazor is attested in Mari texts of the reigns of Šamši-Adad I and Zimri-Lim and has yielded MB IIB and IIC ceramics contemporaneous with Tell el-Dabʿa Strata F and E/3.

    “Likewise, Hazor is attested in Mari texts of the reigns of Šamši-Adad I and Zimri-Lim and has yielded MB IIB and IIC ceramics contemporaneous with Tell el-Dabʿa Strata F and E/3 (Ben-Tor 2004).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ben-Tor 2004

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

17 of 17
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The seeds used for radiocarbon dating were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.

    “We assume that these seeds were stored for a few years at most and were carbonised in a single conflagration.”
1 of 1

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Not all 18 radiocarbon samples came from destruction contexts

    Minor

    The abstract describes all 18 samples as coming from destruction contexts, but the methods state that some came from earlier construction fill. Other samples came from later Iron Age contexts.

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 15

  1. Forlanini, 1985, Remarques géographiques sur les textes cappadociens, Hethitica, 6, 45
  2. Emre, 1994, Beiträge zur altorientalische Archäologie und Altertumskunde. Festschrift für B. Hrouda zum 65. Geburtstag, 129
  3. Miller, 2017, Reallexikon der Assyriologie und Vorderasiatische Archäologie, 193
  4. Pinnock, 2005, La ceramica del Palazzo Settentrionale del Bronzo Medio II
  5. Matthiae, 2007, From relative chronology to absolute chronology: the second millennium BC in Syria-Palestine, 5
  6. Emre, 1995, Pilgrim-flasks from Level I of the Karum of Kanish, Bulletin of the Middle Eastern Culture Center in Japan, 8, 173
  7. Gates, 2011, 2009 season at Kinet Höyük (Yeşil-Dörtyol, Hatay), Kazı Sonuçları Toplantısı, 32, 182
  8. Marchetti, 2008, Proceedings of the 5th International Congress on the Archaeology of the Ancient Near East, Madrid, April 3–8 2006, 465
  9. Marchetti, 2010, Proceedings of the 6th International Congress on the Archaeology of the Ancient Near East, May 5th–10th 2008, “Sapienza”- Università di Roma, 369
  10. Bietak, 2021, Recent discussions about the chronology of the Middle and the Late Bronze Ages in the Eastern Mediterranean, part II: the end of high chronology in the Aegean and the Levant?, Bibliotheca Orientalis, 78, 281
  11. Kaschau, 1999, Lidar Höyük: die Keramik der Mittleren Bronzezeit
  12. Gates, 1987, High, middle or low? Acts of an international colloquium on absolute chronology held at the University of Gothenburg 20th–22nd August 1987, part 2, 60
  13. Özgen, 2001, Ausgrabungen auf dem Oylum Höyük, 1997–2000. Zweiter vorläufiger Bericht, Istanbuler Mitteilungen, 51, 61
  14. Balossi, 2007, Sociétés humaines et changement climatique à la fin du Troisième Millénaire: une crise a-t-elle eu lieu en Haute Mésopotamie? Actes du Colloque de Lyon, 5-8 décembre 2005, 355
  15. Wartke, 2005, Sam'al: ein aramäischer Stadtstaat des 10. bis 8. Jhs. v. Chr. und die Geschichte seiner Erforschung

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Herrmann, V. R., Manning, S. W., Morgan, K. R., Soldi, S., & Schloen, D.
Affiliations
  • University of Tübingen (DE)
  • Cyprus Institute (CY)
  • Duke University (US)
  • National Research Council (IT)
  • University of Chicago (US)
Corresponding author
Herrmann, Virginia R.
Venue
Antiquity
Published
2023-03-29
Volume
97
Issue
393
Pages
654-673
ISSN
  • 0003-598X (ISSN-L)
  • 1745-1744
OpenAlex
W4361290183
Cited by
7
References
39
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2
FWCI
7.21
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Antiquity (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
Funders
  • Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Computational Research on the Ancient Near East (C)
  • Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (HE 7517/2)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and History
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Near East History
Keywords
radiocarbon dating, ceramic chronology, Northern Levant, Hittite Empire

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