Integrated Tree-Ring-Radiocarbon High-Resolution Timeframe to Resolve Earlier Second Millennium BCE Mesopotamian Chronology
Open accessAbstract
500 years of ancient Near Eastern history from the earlier second millennium BCE, including such pivotal figures as Hammurabi of Babylon, Šamši-Adad I (who conquered Aššur) and Zimrilim of Mari, has long floated in calendar time subject to rival chronological schemes up to 150+ years apart. Texts preserved on clay tablets provide much information, including some astronomical references, but despite 100+ years of scholarly effort, chronological resolution has proved impossible. Documents linked with specific Assyrian officials and rulers have been found and associated with archaeological wood samples at Kültepe and Acemhöyük in Turkey, and offer the potential to resolve this long-running problem. Here we show that previous work using tree-ring dating to place these timbers in absolute time has fundamental problems with key dendrochronological crossdates due to small sample numbers in overlapping years and insufficient critical assessment. To address, we have integrated secure dendrochronological sequences directly with radiocarbon (14C) measurements to achieve tightly resolved absolute (calendar) chronological associations and identify the secure links of this tree-ring chronology with the archaeological-historical evidence. The revised tree-ring-sequenced 14C time-series for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is compatible only with the so-called Middle Chronology and not with the rival High, Low or New Chronologies. This finding provides a robust resolution to a century of uncertainty in Mesopotamian chronology and scholarship, and a secure basis for construction of a coherent timeframe and history across the Near East and East Mediterranean in the earlier second millennium BCE. Our re-dating also affects an unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in wood from Porsuk, Turkey, previously tentatively associated with the Minoan eruption of the Santorini volcano. This tree-ring growth anomaly is now directly dated ~1681-1673 BCE (68.2% highest posterior density range), ~20 years earlier than previous assessments, indicating that it likely has no association with the subsequent Santorini volcanic eruption.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
The paper re-dates Anatolian juniper tree-ring chronologies using tree-ring–radiocarbon wiggle-matching and finds earlier second-millennium BCE Mesopotamian chronology is compatible only with the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology, not the High, Low, or New Chronologies. It also moves the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly to ~1681–1673 BCE, making an association with the Santorini/Thera eruption unlikely.
Key findings
- The MBA tree-ring chronology is placed ~13–16 years earlier than previously suggested. Primary construction at Acemhöyük’s Sarıkaya Palace is dated to RY730–731, with likely earliest use RY732 = 1793–1784 BCE (68.2% hpd; 95.4% hpd 1797–1781 BCE); Kültepe’s Waršama Palace primary construction is RY670–672, with likely earliest use RY673 = 1851–1842 BCE (68.2% hpd; 95.4% hpd 1855–1839 BCE).
- Only the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology fits the new dendro-14C constraints. The High Chronology is ruled out because Šamši-Adad I would be dead four decades before the Sarıkaya Palace was built; the Low and New Chronologies are ruled out because REL 80–110 Old Palace contexts would postdate the Waršama Palace by decades. The death of Šamši-Adad I (REL 197) is placed ~1776 BCE or ~1768 BCE.
- The Porsuk chronology is independently placed ~15–24 years older than the Gordion-based dendrochronological crossdate. The RY854 growth anomaly is dated ~1681–1674/1673 BCE (68.2% hpd), so it is no longer compatible with the plausible Santorini eruption range.
- Previous Gordion–Porsuk–MBA dendrochronological links are invalid because the overlapping segments contain only 1–2 trees, too few for secure crossdating, with poor or insignificant statistical correlation.
Methods
- Juniper samples from Acemhöyük, Karahöyük Konya, Kültepe, and Porsuk, plus previously published Gordion material, were dissected into tree-ring segments typically comprising 9–10 rings and AMS 14C dated at Oxford, Vienna, and Heidelberg.
- Tree-ring-sequenced 14C datasets were wiggle-matched to IntCal13 using OxCal 4.2 D_Sequence, Bayesian outlier models, and possible ΔR offsets; models were run with and without outliers.
- Dendrochronological crossdating was assessed with standard methods and TSAP; previous placements were tested by independently dating the MBA, Porsuk, and Gordion chronologies and comparing calendar age estimates for the same relative year.
Limitations
- The paper states that its evidence does not allow a firm decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronologies, which are only 8 calendar years apart; the choice hinges largely on astronomical evidence, especially the incomplete Mari Eponym Chronicle eclipse record.
- The REL sequence has a stated 0–5 year error potential due to manuscript disagreements, imperfect preservation, and winter communication breaks; several possible ways remain to link the REL to the absolute chronology.
- The paper states there is no stratigraphic or decisive documentary relationship between Kültepe Lower Town and the Waršama Palace; the assumed simultaneity of the Lower Town II and Old Palace fires is not proven, and the new dates require either separate fires or pushing the Middle Chronology back about a decade and a half.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
23 of 184 cited sources checked · 11 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingreasoning
The link between the MBA chronology and the Gordion chronology is problematic at best, resulting from an attempt to connect the two via a dendrochronological bridge, a Juniperus spp. chronology from Porsuk.
“But the link between the MBA chronology and the Gordion chronology is problematic at best, resulting from an attempt to connect the two via a dendrochronological ‘bridge’, a Juniperus spp. chronology from Porsuk (POR) (southeast Anatolia) [21–23, 31, 40, 42].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 6 sources checked- cites [21] PI Kuniholm, 1996, Latini, CE, Bruce MJ. Anatolian tree-rings and the absolute chronology of the east Mediterranean 2220-718BC, Nature source
- cites [22] SW Manning, 2001, Anatolian tree-rings and a new chronology for the east Mediterranean Bronze-Iron Ages, Science source
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [31] PI Kuniholm, 1993, Aspects of art and iconography: Anatolia and its neighbours
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
The Introduction (page unavailable) says the Gordion chronology is floating because it does not link to an absolutely dated tree-ring series. Our copy does not address a link between the MBA and Gordion chronologies or a Porsuk dendrochronological bridge (searched: Porsuk, MBA chronology, and bridge). (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [42] PI Kuniholm, 1992, Preliminary report on dendrochronological investigations at Porsuk/Ulukisla, Turkey 1987–1989, Syria source
- Findingown data
The wiggle-match of the 14C ages and the MBA tree-ring chronology indicates a precise placement for the MBA chronology likely ~13-16 years earlier than previously suggested on the basis of the withdrawn and non-secure dendrochronological crossdates with the Porsuk chronology.
“The wiggle-match of the 14C ages and the MBA tree-ring chronology (Figs 4–6, Table 2) indicates a precise placement for the MBA chronology likely ~13–16 years earlier than previously suggested [22, 23, 40] on the basis of the withdrawn and non-secure dendrochronological crossdates with the Porsuk chronology (Fig 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [22] SW Manning, 2001, Anatolian tree-rings and a new chronology for the east Mediterranean Bronze-Iron Ages, Science source
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Classical least-squares curve fitting approaches achieve very similar best fit loci.
“Classical least-squares curve fitting approaches achieve very similar best fit loci [22, 43].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked - Findingown data
A least-squares analysis of the Model 7b data versus IntCal13 achieved a best fit only 6 years different (older).
“we considered the Model 7b data via a least squares analysis versus IntCal13 [61] achieving a best fit only 6 years different (older).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [61] PJ Reimer, 2013, IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP, Radiocarbon source
- Premisecitation
Recent work comparing tree-ring and ice-core records over the past 2500 years has indicated age inflation in the GICC05 time scale-as relevant to the Dye-3, GRIP and NGRIP ice-cores-by up to ~11 years.
“Second, recent work comparing tree-ring and ice-core records over the past 2500 years has indicated age inflation in the GICC05 time scale–as relevant to the Dye-3, GRIP and NGRIP ice-cores–by up to ~11 years [83].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [83] M Sigl, 2015, Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature source
- Interpretationcitation
Application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for Tell el-Dab'a compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timeframe for this period and site.
“application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for the site compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology [98]–which has been rejected by the excavator of the site for no good reason [94]–and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timeframe for this period and site [66, 68, 69, 95, 96].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 7 sources checked- cites [98] W Kutschera, 2012, The chronology of Tell el-Daba: a crucial meeting point of <sup>14</sup>C dating, archaeology, and Egyptology in the 2nd millennium BC, Radiocarbon source
- cites [94] M Bietak, 2013, Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [66] SW Manning, 2014, The volcano of Thera and the chronology and history of the Aegean and east Mediterranean in the mid-second millennium BC
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [68] F Höflmayer, 2012, The Date of the Minoan Santorini Eruption: Quantifying the “Offset”, Radiocarbon source
The Egyptian New Kingdom Chronology and Radiocarbon Dating section says a slightly earlier start for the New Kingdom is possible, supporting an earlier timeframe for the period. The paper does not establish that applying a Middle or Low-Middle Chronology would make dates for Tell el-Dab'a compatible with the site's detailed radiocarbon chronology; the citing sentence attributes that chronology separately to [98]. (LLM, conf=0.80)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [69] SW Manning, 2014, Dating the Thera (Santorini) eruption: archaeological and scientific evidence supporting a high chronology, Antiquity source
- cites [95] N Moeller, 2011, Discussion of late Middle Kingdom and early Second Intermediate Period history and chronology in relation to the Khayan Sealings from Tell Edfu, Ägypten und Levante source
- cites [96] F Höflmayer, 2014, There and Back Again–the Crossroads II
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
All the scientific dating evidence could indicate a likely date for the Santorini/Thera eruption in the later 17th century BCE potentially compatible with the 1628-1626 BCE range.
“Since we may now remove the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly from this discussion (see above), all the scientific dating evidence could therefore indicate a likely date for the Santorini/Thera eruption in the later 17th century BCE potentially compatible with the 1628–1626 BCE range (e.g. [66, 68, 69, 78–81, 89–92]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 10 sources checked- cites [66] SW Manning, 2014, The volcano of Thera and the chronology and history of the Aegean and east Mediterranean in the mid-second millennium BC
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [68] F Höflmayer, 2012, The Date of the Minoan Santorini Eruption: Quantifying the “Offset”, Radiocarbon source
The Palaikastro Tsunami Deposits section says radiocarbon evidence consistently points to an eruption late in the 17th century BCE, and the olive-branch model includes 1628–1626 BCE within its 95.4% range. But the paper says there is no positive evidence linking the eruption to the tree-ring climatic event around 1628 BCE, so it does not support treating all scientific dating evidence as pointing to that range. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [69] SW Manning, 2014, Dating the Thera (Santorini) eruption: archaeological and scientific evidence supporting a high chronology, Antiquity source
- cites [78] VC LaMarche Jr, 1984, Frost rings in trees as records of major volcanic eruptions, Nature source
- cites [79] MGL Baillie, 1988, Irish tree rings, Santorini and volcanic dust veils, Nature source
- cites [80] H Grudd, 2000, Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC, Geophysical Research Letters source
The Results (page not specified in our copy) place a major environmental disruption at 1628/27 BCE and say a 1628 BCE volcanic eruption may have been Santorini. They also caution that linking tree-ring and ice-core signals to a specific volcano is problematic. The paper therefore supports compatibility with that date, but not the broader claim that all scientific dating evidence points to a likely date for the Santorini eruption; it does not establish the effect of removing the Porsuk anomaly. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [81] MW Salzer, 2007, Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr, Quaternary Research source
- cites [89] MK Hughes, 1988, Ice layer dating of the eruption of Santorini, Nature source
- cites [90] W Friedrich, 2006, Santorini Eruption Radiocarbon Dated to 1627–1600, BC. Science source
- cites [91] SW Manning, 2006, Chronology for the Aegean Late Bronze Age, Science source
- The authors state this as an assumption: Inflation of ~15–20 years by the mid second millennium BCE in ice-core chronologies is assumed.
- Premisecitation
A range of tree-ring evidence around the northern hemisphere indicates unusual growth anomalies from 1628-1626 BCE plausibly associated with the cooling effects of a major volcanic eruption.
“a period when (from 1628–1626 BCE) a range of tree-ring evidence around the northern hemisphere indicates unusual growth anomalies plausibly associated with the cooling effects of a major volcanic eruption (e.g. [78–81]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 4 sources checked- cites [78] VC LaMarche Jr, 1984, Frost rings in trees as records of major volcanic eruptions, Nature source
- cites [79] MGL Baillie, 1988, Irish tree rings, Santorini and volcanic dust veils, Nature source
- cites [80] H Grudd, 2000, Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC, Geophysical Research Letters source
- cites [81] MW Salzer, 2007, Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr, Quaternary Research source
- Premisecitation
Other observations suggest the need for a ~20 year reduction in ages for these records around the 17th century BCE, based on comparison of two solar activity proxy records.
“other observations suggesting the need for a ~20 year reduction in ages for these records around the 17th century BCE, based on comparison of two solar activity proxy records (which should therefore be similar): (i) the 10Be record derived from the Greenland ice-cores versus (ii) the Δ14C record from known-age trees [87]”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [87] Muscheler R. <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>10</sup>Be around 1650 cal BC. In: Warburton DA, editor. Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini. Acts of the Minoan Eruption Chronology Workshop, Sandbjerg November 2007 initiated by Jan Heinemeier & Walter L. Friedrich. Århus: The Danish Institute at Athens; 2009. pp 275–284.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [88] J Southon, 2004, A Radiocarbon Perspective on Greenland Ice-Core Chronologies: can we use ice cores for <sup>14</sup>C calibration?, Radiocarbon source
The Holocene section compares Greenland GISP2 ¹⁰Be with Δ¹⁴C from absolutely dated tree rings and says the comparison suggests the GISP2 chronology is too old before 3400 BP. But it estimates the needed reduction at about 60 years, not ~20 years; the 20–30-year figure refers to the proxy lag at later dates. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingnone given
Previous work using tree-ring dating to place these timbers in absolute time has fundamental problems with key dendrochronological crossdates due to small sample numbers in overlapping years and insufficient critical assessment.
“Here we show that previous work using tree-ring dating to place these timbers in absolute time has fundamental problems with key dendrochronological crossdates due to small sample numbers in overlapping years and insufficient critical assessment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The supposed linkage between the Porsuk chronology and the MBA chronology is no more than tentative due to the overlapping segment of POR containing only 1 or 2 samples, too low for secure crossdating.
“Second, the supposed linkage between the Porsuk chronology and the MBA chronology is also, in dendrochronological terms, no more than tentative due to the overlapping segment of POR containing only 1 or 2 samples, again too low for secure crossdating (Fig 3, see Section A in S1 File, Figures A, B, Tables C, E in S1 File).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Dates on the same or similar tree-rings measured at different laboratories show good agreement.
“Dates on the same or similar (site or time interval) tree-rings measured at different laboratories also show good agreement.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
RY732 equates with 1793-1784 BCE (68.2% hpd; 95.4% hpd 1797-1781 BCE) following Model 8a.
“RY732 equates with 1793–1784 BCE (68.2% hpd; the 95.4% hpd is 1797–1781 BCE) following Model 8a in Table 2, see Table 3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
RY673 is placed 1851-1842 BCE (68.2% hpd; 95.4% hpd 1855-1839 BCE).
“RY673 is placed 1851–1842 BCE (68.2% hpd; the 95.4% hpd is 1855–1839 BCE): Table 3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The existing Porsuk relative tree-ring date against the Gordion chronology offers only a very marginal position in the respective 95.4% probability ranges.
“the existing Porsuk relative tree-ring date against the Gordion chronology is both a tentative dendrochronological crossdate, and offers only a very marginal position in the respective 95.4% probability ranges”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Analyses with or without outliers removed, or considering possible small regional 14C offsets, all yield very similar calendar date placements for each of the chronologies (GOR, POR and MBA), with mean or median values varying only by 0-3 years.
“Overall, it is important to highlight that the analyses we report, whether with or without outliers removed, or considering possible small regional 14C offsets, all yield very similar calendar date placements for each of the chronologies (GOR, POR and MBA), with mean or median values varying only by 0–3 years: Table 2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Our revised dating scheme for Porsuk and the MBA chronology is compatible only with the so-called Middle or Low-Middle Mesopotamian Chronologies.
“We demonstrate that our revised dating scheme for Porsuk and the MBA chronology is compatible only with the so-called Middle or Low-Middle Mesopotamian Chronologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The independent Porsuk dendro-14C wiggle-match places the RY 854 growth anomaly in the Porsuk wood most likely ~1681-1674/1673 BCE (68.2% hpd ranges from Models 6 or 6b).
“The independent Porsuk dendro-14C wiggle-match places the RY 854 growth anomaly in the Porsuk wood most likely ~1681-1674/1673 BCE (68.2% hpd ranges from Models 6 or 6b –for the 95.4% hpd ranges, see Fig 6)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
In all but one case (OxA-30897 & OxA-31521 from MBA relative rings 677-685), the 14C data on identical tree-rings are compatible to be combined as weighted averages to give the best available estimates of the appropriate 14C age.
“In all but one case, OxA-30897 & OxA-31521 from MBA relative rings (RY) 677–685, the data on the identical tree-rings are compatible to be combined as weighted averages to give the best available estimates of the appropriate 14C age [60].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [60] GK Ward, 1978, Procedures for comparing and combining radiocarbon age determinations: a critique, Archaeometry source
- Findingown data
The placement of the Waršama Palace primary construction (RY672) according to the dendro-14C evidence corresponds to about REL 125 (±8 years at 95.4% probability).
“The placement of the Waršama Palace primary construction (RY672) according to the dendro-14C evidence would correspond to about REL 125 (±8 years at 95.4% probability)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The construction of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe (latest primary construction date RY672) is placed at 1852-1843 BCE (68.2% hpd).
“The construction of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe (latest primary construction date RY672 in terms of the MBA tree-ring chronology) is placed at 1852–1843 BCE (68.2% hpd: Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The archaeology from the site of Kültepe itself has produced no evidence that proves the simultaneity of the conflagrations that destroyed the Lower Town Level II (REL 138-141) and the Old Palace in Mound Level 8.
“Despite a long-lived assumption, the archaeology from the site of Kültepe itself has produced no evidence that proves the simultaneity of the conflagrations that destroyed the Lower Town Level II (REL 138–141) and the Old Palace in Mound Level 8 (before the last primary construction date of the subsequent Waršama Palace at 1852–1843 BCE at 68% probability: Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The date (bark or waney edge) of the trees used in the primary construction of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe ranges over three years, from RY670-672.
“The date (bark or waney edge) of the trees used in the primary construction of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe ranges over three years, from RY670-672.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The Porsuk chronology is placed ~15-24 years older than suggested by the best, but uncertain, dendrochronological crossdate with Gordion, when comparing median or mean values for Models 1-5 versus Models 6, 6a and 6b.
“We find that the Porsuk chronology is placed ~15–24 years older than suggested by the best, but uncertain, dendrochronological crossdate with Gordion–when comparing median or mean values for Models 1–5 versus Models 6, 6a and 6b in Table 2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
Some documentary materials of Lower Town Level II, dating within REL 80-110 or as late as TAQ about REL 125, were found stratified beneath or in prior fill/debris underneath the subsequent Waršama Palace.
“some documentary materials of Lower Town Level II, which date within the range REL 80–110, or perhaps even as late as a terminus ante quem (TAQ) of about REL 125 in one case, were found stratified beneath or in prior fill/debris underneath the subsequent Waršama Palace ([5] at p.31).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
The work provides absolute dating evidence for Mesopotamian chronology in the earlier second millennium BCE from wiggle-matching of time-series of tree-ring 14C dates from individual MBA site chronologies, independent of other assumptions.
“Our work provides, independent of other assumptions, absolute dating evidence for Mesopotamian chronology in the earlier second millennium BCE from the wiggle-matching of time-series of tree-ring 14C dates from individual MBA site chronologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The new dates reported for the MBA chronology are only ~16 years older than those previously suggested.
“Conveniently, the sound new dates we report for the MBA chronology are only ~16 years different (older) than those previously suggested.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
The handful of archives from Kültepe that continue past the collapse to the end of Lower Town Level II prove that the lower town survived until REL 138.
“Yet, the handful of archives from Kültepe that live past this collapse and continue straight on to the end of the Lower Town Level II prove that the lower town survived until REL 138.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The previous dates were established using an unsubstantiated dendrochronological bridge between the near-absolutely placed Gordion chronology and the MBA chronology via the Porsuk chronology.
“These direct age estimates replace previously published dates and are not revisions, since the previous dates were established using what has been shown to be an unsubstantiated dendrochronological bridge between the near-absolutely placed Gordion chronology and the MBA chronology (including Kültepe and Acemhöyük) via the Porsuk chronology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The separate Porsuk chronology has been approximately re-dated and shifted to a ~15-24 years older date placement on the basis of its own independent tree-ring-14C-wiggle-match.
“The (for now) separate Porsuk chronology has itself been approximately re-dated and shifted to a ~15–24 years older date placement on the basis of its own independent tree-ring-14C-wiggle-match.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisenone given
The earlier second millennium BCE Mesopotamian historical period, including Hammurabi of Babylon, Šamši-Adad I and Zimrilim of Mari, has long floated in calendar time subject to rival chronological schemes up to 150+ years apart.
“500 years of ancient Near Eastern history from the earlier second millennium BCE, including such pivotal figures as Hammurabi of Babylon, Šamši-Adad I (who conquered Aššur) and Zimrilim of Mari, has long floated in calendar time subject to rival chronological schemes up to 150+ years apart.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly likely has no association with the subsequent Santorini volcanic eruption.
“indicating that it likely has no association with the subsequent Santorini volcanic eruption.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Knowledge of Babylonian dynastic succession and the synchronism of Šamši-Adad I's death in Hammurabi's 18th regnal year allows establishment of a relative chronological sequence of some 380 years between the ascent of Erišum I and the destruction of Babylon during the Hittite invasion of Muršili I.
“Alongside our knowledge of the Babylonian dynastic succession and the well-established synchronism of Šamši-Adad I’s death in Hammurabi’s 18th regnal year, this allows us to establish a relative chronological sequence of some 380 years between the ascent of the Assyrian ruler Erišum I and the destruction of Babylon during the Hittite invasion of Muršili I.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The reconstructed REL record now available offers an approximately annual relative timeframe for the greater Mesopotamian world for the earlier second millennium BCE.
“Nonetheless, the reconstructed REL record now available offers an approximately annual relative timeframe for the greater Mesopotamian world for the earlier second millennium BCE [5].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisenone given
Despite 100+ years of scholarly effort, chronological resolution for the earlier second millennium BCE has proved impossible.
“but despite 100+ years of scholarly effort, chronological resolution has proved impossible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
There is no accepted timescale for the earlier second millennium BCE despite much work across several disciplines and over 100 years of scholarly controversy.
“However, there is no accepted timescale for the earlier second millennium BCE despite much work across several disciplines and over 100 years of scholarly controversy (e.g. [12–15]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [12] R Pruzsinszky, 2009, Mesopotamian Chronology of the 2nd Millennium B.C.: An Introduction to the Textual Evidence and Related Chronological Issues
- cites [13] J Klinger, 2006, Ancient Egyptian Chronology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [14] H Hunger, 2009, Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini. Acts of the Minoan Eruption Chronology Workshop, Sandbjerg November 2007 initiated by Jan Heinemeier & Walter L. Friedrich
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premiseown data
For Acemhöyük, there is a robust chronology of 12 samples.
“For this site, there is a robust chronology of 12 samples (see Figure D in S1 File, S2 Dataset, Table D in S1 File).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
This calls into question existing work on Mesopotamian chronology which has used such dates as part of assessments or arguments.
“This calls into question existing work on Mesopotamian chronology which has used such dates as part of assessments or arguments (e.g. [5, 9–12, 15]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 6 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [11] W Nahm, 2013, The Case of the Lower Middle Chronology, Altorientalische Forschungen source
- cites [12] R Pruzsinszky, 2009, Mesopotamian Chronology of the 2nd Millennium B.C.: An Introduction to the Textual Evidence and Related Chronological Issues
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
There is a critical gap: the documentary record comes from the lower town area, which is entirely discrete from and with no stratigraphic or decisive documentary relationship to the Waršama Palace.
“However, there is a critical gap in the evidence: the documentary record comes from the lower town area, which is entirely discrete from and with no stratigraphic or decisive documentary relationship to the Waršama Palace [4, 5, 24].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [24] T Özgüç, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Documents recovered at Kültepe place the transition from Lower Town Level II to Ib between REL 138 and REL 142 (thus REL 138-141).
“Documents recovered in houses belonging to Assyrian merchants settled at Kültepe (ancient Kaneš) [4] place the transition from Kültepe Lower Town (referred to as the “kārum” in earlier literature) Level II to Ib between REL 138 (latest attested year eponym in Level II) and REL 142 (first attested year eponym in the subsequent Level Ib)–thus REL 138–141 [5].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
A large number of bullae bearing sealings of Šamši-Adad I and other contemporary figures were found at the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük.
“A large number of bullae (sealed clay lumps) bearing e.g. the sealings of Šamši-Adad I, king of Upper Mesopotamia, and ruler of Aššur between REL 165 and his death in REL 197 (a reign lasting 33 or 34 years [25]), were found at the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük in Anatolia (e.g. [5, 26–29]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 6 sources checked- cites [25] Y Bloch, 2014, The Conquest Eponyms of Šamši-Adad I and the Kaneš Eponym List, Journal of Near Eastern Studies source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [26] N Özgüç, 1980, Ancient Art in Seals
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [27] N Özgüç, 2015, Acemhöyük—Burušhaddum, I. Cylinder Seals and Bullae with Cylinder Seal Impressions
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [28] A Otto, 2000, Die Entstehung und Entwicklung des Klassisch-Syrischen Glyptik source
- cites [29] KR Veenhof, Proceedings of the 2<sup>nd</sup> Kültepe International Meeting
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Previously stated calendar date estimates for the Porsuk, Acemhöyük, Karahöyük or Kültepe timber samples extrapolated from the Gordion chronology are not secure in dendrochronological terms.
“Thus any previously stated calendar date estimates for the Porsuk, Acemhöyük, Karahöyük or Kültepe timber samples extrapolated from the Gordion chronology are not secure in dendrochronological terms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The conflagration that destroyed the Lower Town Level II settlement occurred slightly later (e.g. ~13-16 or so years later).
“The conflagration that destroyed the Lower Town Level II settlement then occurred slightly later (e.g. ~13–16 or so years later).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
RY732 is the likely earliest year of actual use of the Sarıkaya Palace.
“We might therefore reasonably regard RY732 as the likely earliest year of actual use of the building.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The likely earliest use of the Waršama Palace is not before RY673.
“we can regard the likely earliest use of the palace as not before RY673.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
There is no reliable dendrochronological linkage between the near-absolutely placed Gordion chronology and the Porsuk chronology.
“the recognition now that there is no reliable dendrochronological linkage between the near-absolutely placed Gordion chronology and the Porsuk chronology (see above) renders these previous dates for the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly invalid.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
This importantly questions the long-held but unsubstantiated assumption that the destruction/transition between Lower Town Levels II and Ib equates with the destruction of the Old Palace and building of the new Waršama Palace.
“This importantly questions the long-held but unsubstantiated assumption that the destruction/transition between Lower Town Levels II and Ib equates with the destruction of the Old Palace and building of the new Waršama Palace (as accepted or used by e.g. [4, 5, 24, 74]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [24] T Özgüç, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [74] K Balkan, 1955, Observations on the Chronological Problems of the Kārum Kaniš
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
The ~13-16 years older shift from our results critically resolves a problem with the (now withdrawn) previous dendrochronological dating.
“The ~13–16 years older shift from our results critically resolves a problem with the (now withdrawn) previous dendrochronological dating.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These dates render the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly no longer compatible with the plausible date range for the Santorini eruption.
“These dates render the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly no longer compatible with the plausible date range for the Santorini eruption”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Our findings directly and independently support some recent analyses of the textual and astronomical records arguing for the Middle Chronology or Low-Middle Chronology as the only coherent solution(s) for Old Babylonian chronology and history.
“Our findings directly and independently support some recent analyses of the textual and astronomical records arguing for the Middle Chronology or Low-Middle Chronology as the only coherent solution(s) for Old Babylonian chronology and history [5, 9–11, 15].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [11] W Nahm, 2013, The Case of the Lower Middle Chronology, Altorientalische Forschungen source
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Only some variation of the Middle Chronology is compatible with the tightly constrained data.
“It is evident that only some variation of the Middle Chronology is compatible with the tightly constrained data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The construction of the Waršama Palace occurred at least a few years before the beginning of the Lower Town Level Ib.
“It is evident that the construction of the Waršama Palace (or at least the building of the northwest area of this 1 hectare monumental complex [4, 24]–the location of the sampled wood) occurred at least a few years before the beginning of the Lower Town Level Ib.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [24] T Özgüç, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Sometime around or just after REL 125 may offer a good date for the construction of the Waršama Palace.
“Sometime around or just after REL 125 may therefore offer a good date for the construction of the Waršama Palace.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The Low and New Chronologies may be ruled out as implausible.
“Thus we may rule out the Low and New Chronologies as implausible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In the pre-modern world there is little evidence that timber was not used more or less immediately in roughhewn situations, especially when no lengthy transport is involved.
“In the pre-modern world there is little evidence that timber was not used more or less immediately (with ‘seasoning’, where mentioned, usually meaning literally after a season, so within 0–1 year of felling) in such roughhewn situations [71, 72] and especially when no lengthy transport is involved”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [71] 1982, Oxford: Clarendon Press, Oxford: Clarendon Press
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [72] PI Kuniholm, 1987, Dendrochronological Investigations in the Aegean and Neighboring Regions, 1983–1986, Journal of Field Archaeology source
- Interpretationreasoning
The first solution (that the two fire events were separate) appears more plausible.
“For various reasons, the first solution appears more plausible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The sealed envelope Kt z/t 17 presumably has to date to the period prior to REL 125, since it makes use of the hamuštum-system of dating that was abandoned during the latest phase of the Lower Town Level II period.
“The already mentioned fact that the sealed envelope Kt z/t 17 (found in situ in an Old Palace context sealed by the later Waršama Palace [24] at p.103 and pl.87) presumably has to date to the period prior to REL 125, since it makes use of the hamuštum-system of dating that was abandoned during the latest phase of the Lower Town Level II period [5], is circumstantial evidence in favor of doing so.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [24] T Özgüç, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
The Middle or Low-Middle Chronology can henceforth be regarded in approximate terms-with a robust dendro-14C anchor-as the accurate timeframe for Mesopotamian history.
“Contrary to claims that it should be dismissed (e.g. [18, 19, 76]), the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology can henceforth be regarded in approximate terms–with a robust dendro-14C anchor–as the accurate timeframe for Mesopotamian history.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [18] H Gasche, 1998
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [19] J Mebert, 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [76] DA Warburton, 2011, The Fall of Babylon in 1499: Another Update, Akkadica source
- Premisereasoning
The previous date for the Sarıkaya Palace (1774 +4/-7 BCE) was problematic because it left construction occurring more or less when Šamši-Adad I died.
“Although this previous date favored the Middle Chronology, it was problematic as it left the construction of the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük (then given as 1774 +4/-7 BCE [22, 23]) occurring more or less when Šamši-Adad I died (REL197 = 1776 BCE on the Middle Chronology–and not long before Šamši-Adad I’s death on the Low Middle Chronology).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
A decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronology largely hinges on the astronomical evidence, especially the Mari Eponym Chronicle record of what is interpreted as a solar eclipse placed about REL 127, the year after the birth of Šamši-Adad I.
“A decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronology largely hinges on the astronomical evidence, especially the record in the Mari Eponym Chronicle of what is interpreted as a solar eclipse placed about REL 127, the year after the birth of Šamši-Adad I [5, 9, 10, 15]–though there is some room for debate as the relevant text is not complete [5, 9].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127 is retained.
- Interpretationown data
The new robust evidence finds the same Middle or Low-Middle Mesopotamian Chronology solutions are most likely, but on a more rigorous basis.
“Hence, although previous arguments using the now replaced tree-ring-based dates (e.g. [5, 9–11, 15]) are inherently invalid in this strict respect, it turns out that the new, robust, evidence nonetheless finds the same Middle or Low-Middle Mesopotamian Chronology solutions are most likely but on a more rigorous basis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [11] W Nahm, 2013, The Case of the Lower Middle Chronology, Altorientalische Forschungen source
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationown data
The Middle Chronology allows the best compromise of all the pre-existing archaeological-textual assumptions with the new dendro-14C dating framework.
“This is not decisive, but the Middle Chronology allows the best compromise of all the pre-existing archaeological-textual assumptions with the new dendro-14C dating framework.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The new dendro-14C dates require rethinking of recent analyses that made assumptions based on the now incorrect previous dendrochronological dates.
“The new dendro-14C dates require rethinking of recent analyses, which made assumptions based on the now incorrect previous dendrochronological dates (e.g. [5, 9, 10, 15]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
This offers a scenario compatible with the documentary evidence presently available from the subsequent Lower Town Level Ib, which has texts containing dates from REL 141 onwards, including the reign of Šamši-Adad I placed REL 165-197.
“This offers a scenario compatible with the documentary evidence presently available from the subsequent Lower Town Level Ib [4–5, 7], which has texts containing dates from REL 141 onwards, including the reign of Šamši-Adad I placed REL 165–197.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [7] KR Veenhof, 2003, The Old Assyrian List of Year Eponyms source
- Interpretationcitation
Chronological and historical scenarios for the Ancient Near East or East Mediterranean regions built around arguments claiming support from, or the need for, the Mesopotamian Low Chronology from other debatable interpretative archaeological and historical connections-such as the 'low' chronology applied to Hazor or to the Second Intermediate Period archaeological strata at Tell el-Dab'a-are无效 and须
“are invalid and must be revised”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [93] A Ben-Tor, 2004, Hazor and Chronology, Ägypten und Levante source
- cites [94] M Bietak, 2013, Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [69] SW Manning, 2014, Dating the Thera (Santorini) eruption: archaeological and scientific evidence supporting a high chronology, Antiquity source
- cites [95] N Moeller, 2011, Discussion of late Middle Kingdom and early Second Intermediate Period history and chronology in relation to the Khayan Sealings from Tell Edfu, Ägypten und Levante source
- cites [96] F Höflmayer, 2014, There and Back Again–the Crossroads II
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- May combine two claims. 62
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 6
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Gordion Juniperus spp. chronology is well-established and near-absolutely placed in time.
“The Gordion (GOR) Juniperus spp. chronology is likewise well-established and near-absolutely placed in time [22, 23, 31, 40, 41].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 5 sources checked- cites [22] SW Manning, 2001, Anatolian tree-rings and a new chronology for the east Mediterranean Bronze-Iron Ages, Science source
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [31] PI Kuniholm, 1993, Aspects of art and iconography: Anatolia and its neighbours
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
- cites [41] PI Kuniholm, 2011, The New Chronology of Iron Age Gordion source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationRobust Juniperus spp. tree-ring chronologies from Kültepe, Acemhöyük, and Karahöyük Konya securely crossdate following standard dendrochronological methods and evaluation, both within and between sites, and combine into a robust floating 300-year MBA juniper chronology.
“Robust Juniperus spp. tree-ring chronologies from three Middle Bronze Age (MBA) sites in Anatolia (Fig 2)–Kültepe (KUL) and Acemhöyük (ACM), plus one other site, Karahöyük Konya (KBK) [20, 23, 31] (and see Section A in S1 File)–do securely crossdate following standard dendrochronological methods and evaluation [32–39], both within and between sites with no doubt as to veracity”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 10 sources checked- cites [20] PI Kuniholm, 1989, Anatolia and the ancient Near East: studies in honor of Tahsin Özgüç
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [31] PI Kuniholm, 1993, Aspects of art and iconography: Anatolia and its neighbours
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [32] E Cook, 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [33] FH Schweingruber, 1988, Tree Rings: Basics and Applications of Dendrochronology source
- cites [34] JH Speer, 2010, Fundamentals of Tree-Ring Research source
- cites [35] U Sass-Klaassen, 2008, Dendrochronological dating and provenancing of timber used as foundation piles under historic buildings in The Netherlands, International Biodeterioration & Biodegradation source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [36] Harris K. Corina 1.1. 2007 version of a 2003 release. Available: <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://dendro.cornell.edu/corina/download.php" xlink:type="simple">http://dendro.cornell.edu/corina/download.php</ext-link>.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [37] Rinn F. TSAP (Time Series Analysis and Presentation). 1996, version 3.0. Heidelberg, Germany.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [38] RL Holmes, 1983, Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement, Tree-Ring Bulletin
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationThe part of the chronology linking Gordion and Porsuk contains very low sample depth-just 1 or 2 trees in the Gordion chronology-too few for any secure crossdating following standard dendrochronological methods, making the best available match highly tentative at best.
“First, the part of the chronology linking Gordion and Porsuk contains very low sample depth–with just 1 or 2 trees in the Gordion chronology (Fig 3, Figures A, B in S1 File)–too few for any secure crossdating following standard dendrochronological methods [32–35]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 4 sources checked- cites [32] E Cook, 1990
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [33] FH Schweingruber, 1988, Tree Rings: Basics and Applications of Dendrochronology source
- cites [34] JH Speer, 2010, Fundamentals of Tree-Ring Research source
- cites [35] U Sass-Klaassen, 2008, Dendrochronological dating and provenancing of timber used as foundation piles under historic buildings in The Netherlands, International Biodeterioration & Biodegradation source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationNo substantive regional 14C offset was identified for these timbers across the relevant time period, consistent with findings for the second millennium BCE previously reported for central Anatolia from Gordion.
“No substantive offset was identified for these timbers across the relevant time period consistent with findings for the second millennium BCE previously reported for central Anatolia from Gordion [40].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationOxCal implements a comprehensive Bayesian chronological modelling approach that permits definition of probability regions and robust outlier detection.
“the OxCal software implements a comprehensive Bayesian chronological modelling approach [62]; among other things, this permits definition of probability regions and robust outlier detection [62, 63].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataAfter removing the 3 data more than 3σ from the mean IntCal13 values, a re-run was only 4 years different (older) than Model 8a.
“After removing the 3 data more than 3σ from the mean IntCal13 values, a re-run was only 4 years different (older) than Model 8a”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [61] PJ Reimer, 2013, IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0–50,000 years cal BP, Radiocarbon source
The ‘IntCal13 and the Estimate of the Random Walk Variance’ section describes how the IntCal13 curve was constructed, but does not report this outlier-removal re-run. Searches for ‘Model 8a’ and the three-data, 3σ, four-year comparison found no passage addressing the claimed result; page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationAdditional data included in IntCal13 reduce somewhat small discrepancies noted previously with respect to the Gordion dataset.
“additional data included in IntCal13 reduce somewhat small discrepancies noted previously with respect to the Gordion dataset [40, 65].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
The section “Comparison of the Gordion 14 C Time Series Versus IntCal09” (page unavailable) reports discrepancies between the Gordion data and IntCal09, including outliers and an offset. It does not assess IntCal13 or show that additional data reduced those discrepancies. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [65] SW Manning, 2013, Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIf the previously published crossdates and positions were correct, then all the chronologies should yield approximately the same calendar age ranges for RY776; they do not.
“If the previously published crossdates and positions were correct (e.g. [21–23, 31, 40, 41]), then all the chronologies should yield approximately the same calendar age ranges for RY776. They do not.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 6 sources checked- cites [21] PI Kuniholm, 1996, Latini, CE, Bruce MJ. Anatolian tree-rings and the absolute chronology of the east Mediterranean 2220-718BC, Nature source
- cites [22] SW Manning, 2001, Anatolian tree-rings and a new chronology for the east Mediterranean Bronze-Iron Ages, Science source
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [31] PI Kuniholm, 1993, Aspects of art and iconography: Anatolia and its neighbours
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [40] SW Manning, 2010, <sup>14</sup>C Record and Wiggle-Match Placement for the Anatolian (Gordion Area) Juniper Tree-Ring Chronology ~1729 to 751 Cal BC, and typical Aegean/Anatolian (growing season related) regional <sup>14</sup>C offset assessment, Radiocarbon source
- cites [41] PI Kuniholm, 2011, The New Chronology of Iron Age Gordion source
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationThe RScaled outlier model in OxCal was employed because errors involved in this study are of the 14C timescale and may be understated, making RScaled more appropriate than SSimple.
“The RScaled outlier model in OxCal was employed as the errors involved in this study are of the 14C timescale (and not the tree-ring/calendar timescale), but may reasonably be regarded as potentially somewhat understated in real terms, as evident, for example, in previous high-precision inter-laboratory comparisons [64]–thus the RScaled option seems more appropriate/realistic in a case like ours”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [64] P Reimer, 2004, IntCal04 Terrestrial Radiocarbon Age Calibration, 0–26 Cal KYR BP, Radiocarbon source
- cites [63] Ramsey C Bronk, 2009, Dealing with outliers and offsets in radiocarbon dating, Radiocarbon source
In the Outlier_Model section (page unavailable), the paper identifies RScaled as an option for offsets in the ¹⁴C ratio whose scale is unknown, rather than offsets in calendar time. But it distinguishes those offsets from understated measurement uncertainties: its Introduction and Outlier_Model section treat measurement errors as s-type, represented by SSimple. The paper therefore supports the timescale distinction, but not the stated reason for preferring RScaled over SSimple; it does not establish the citing study’s inter-laboratory premise. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThis implies the likely need for a recalibration of the chronology of ice-core evidence for second millennium BCE volcanism from the Dye-3/GRIP/NGRIP records, and so also the date of the major volcanic signal previously dated in the mid-1640s BCE.
“This implies the likely need for a recalibration of the chronology of ice-core evidence for second millennium BCE volcanism from the Dye-3/GRIP/NGRIP records, and so also the date of the major volcanic signal previously dated in the mid-1640s BCE (and associated by some with Santorini/Thera [84–86]).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [83] M Sigl, 2015, Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years, Nature source
The paper’s “Potential causes of a previous ice-core dating bias” section identifies possible dating problems in the NGRIP, GRIP and Dye-3 records, supporting the concern behind the citing authors’ inference. But its revised chronologies extend only back to about 500 BCE (“New ice-core chronologies”); it does not establish a recalibration of second-millennium BCE evidence or a new date for the signal previously placed in the mid-1640s BCE. Page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in wood from Porsuk, Turkey, previously tentatively associated with the Minoan eruption of the Santorini volcano, is now directly dated ~1681-1673 BCE (68.2% highest posterior density range), ~20 years earlier than previous assessments.
“This tree-ring growth anomaly is now directly dated ~1681–1673 BCE (68.2% highest posterior density range), ~20 years earlier than previous assessments”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe revised tree-ring-sequenced 14C time-series for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is compatible only with the so-called Middle Chronology and not with the rival High, Low or New Chronologies.
“The revised tree-ring-sequenced 14C time-series for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is compatible only with the so-called Middle Chronology and not with the rival High, Low or New Chronologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingnone givenReappraisal and new work reveals that some dendrochronological evidence published until now must be reconsidered, critically affecting all work that employed dendrochronological crossdating among Anatolian sites using the Porsuk chronology.
“But, just as recent discoveries and advances with regard to the available textual evidence have transformed understanding as encapsulated in the REL [5], so reappraisal and new work reveals that some of the dendrochronological evidence published until now must also be reconsidered.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere are no valid crossdates between the Porsuk and MBA chronologies, nor between the Porsuk and Gordion chronologies.
“Based on this information, there are no valid crossdates between the Porsuk and MBA chronologies, nor between the Porsuk and Gordion chronologies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOur direct date for the Porsuk tree-ring chronology revises the date for this chronology and confirms that Porsuk lacks secure dendrochronological crossdates with both the MBA chronology and the Gordion chronology at the previously proposed placement.
“Our direct date for the Porsuk tree-ring chronology revises the date for this chronology and confirms that Porsuk lacks secure dendrochronological crossdates with both the MBA chronology and the Gordion chronology at the previously proposed placement.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingnone givenThere are robust crossdates among the three MBA site chronologies, KUL-KBK-ACM, and they form the basis of the combined MBA juniper chronology.
“There are robust crossdates among the three MBA site chronologies, KUL-KBK-ACM, and they form the basis of the combined MBA juniper chronology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOur work moves the date of a previously reported unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in the Porsuk chronology-tentatively associated with the effects of the Santorini/Thera volcanic eruption-to an earlier period, meaning that this growth-ring anomaly is not associated with the Santorini event.
“Further, our work moves the date of a previously reported unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in the Porsuk chronology–tentatively associated with the effects of the Santorini/Thera volcanic eruption [21, 22, 46]–to an earlier period, meaning that this growth-ring anomaly is not associated with the Santorini event.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [21] PI Kuniholm, 1996, Latini, CE, Bruce MJ. Anatolian tree-rings and the absolute chronology of the east Mediterranean 2220-718BC, Nature source
- cites [22] SW Manning, 2001, Anatolian tree-rings and a new chronology for the east Mediterranean Bronze-Iron Ages, Science source
- cites [46] CL Pearson, 2009, Dendrochemical analysis of a tree-ring growth anomaly associated with the Late Bronze Age eruption of Thera, Journal of Archaeological Science source
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationSome samples indicate later additions/repairs: 22-24 years later at the Waršama Palace, at least 61 years later at the Waršama Palace, and at least 8 years later at the Sarıkaya Palace; these suggest minimum lifetimes for the structures as >61 years and >8 years respectively.
“These suggest minimum lifetimes for the structures as >61 years and >8 years respectively.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
May combine two claims.
FindingcitationAll but one set of 14C measurements on identical tree-rings were compatible with the assumption of representing the same 14C age within 95% probability limits, and were considered as weighted average values.
“All but one set of 14C measurements on identical tree-rings were compatible with the assumption of representing the same 14C age within 95% probability limits, and were considered as weighted average values [60].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [60] GK Ward, 1978, Procedures for comparing and combining radiocarbon age determinations: a critique, Archaeometry source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe felling dates for primary construction of the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük are placed at RY730-731 on the MBA chronology, with some later construction from repairs or alterations.
“The felling dates for primary construction of the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük are placed at RY730-731 on the MBA chronology, with some later construction from repairs or alterations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe best available linkages of any of the MBA set elements with POR are less than secure, as is GOR with POR, due to the small sample count in one of the two data sets in each overlap and insignificant or poor statistical correlation.
“As noted above, the best available linkages of any of the MBA set elements with POR are less than secure, as is GOR with POR (Section A, Tables C, E in S1 File) due to the small sample count in one of the two data sets in each overlap and insignificant or poor statistical correlation (Fig 3, Tables C, E in S1 File).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThis includes three parallel sets of samples on the same tree-rings run at different laboratories (Oxford, OxA and Vienna, VERA), and data on tree-ring samples from different trees of similar relative date run at different laboratories (Heidelberg, Hd and Oxford).
“This includes three parallel sets of samples on the same tree-rings run at different laboratories (Oxford, OxA and Vienna, VERA), and data on tree-ring samples from different trees of similar relative date run at different laboratories (Heidelberg, Hd and Oxford).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere is no tree-ring-based link between the MBA chronology and either Porsuk or Gordion.
“There is no tree-ring-based link with either Porsuk or Gordion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe probability distribution for the Porsuk series is not approximately symmetrical; the mode is 2 years older than the mean and 1 year older than the median at 1755 BCE for Model 6.
“# The probability distribution for the Porsuk series is not approximately symmetrical–contrast all other cases–the mode of the distribution is 2 years older than the mean, and 1 year older than the median–at 1755 BCE for Model 6.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe paper provides direct high-precision date estimates for the primary-construction timbers at Kültepe and Acemhöyük which can be related closely to Mesopotamian chronology and history.
“In particular, we provide direct high-precision date estimates for the primary-construction timbers at Kültepe and Acemhöyük which can be related closely to Mesopotamian chronology and history.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe richly documented historical period floats unanchored in calendar time, preventing secure synchronization with contemporary civilizations in surrounding areas such as Egypt.
“However, this richly documented historical period floats unanchored in calendar time (e.g. [12, 13]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [12] R Pruzsinszky, 2009, Mesopotamian Chronology of the 2nd Millennium B.C.: An Introduction to the Textual Evidence and Related Chronological Issues
- cites [13] J Klinger, 2006, Ancient Egyptian Chronology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDifferent manuscripts of the eponym list disagree slightly, are imperfectly preserved, and breaks in communication during winter between Aššur and Anatolia introduce a 0-5 year error potential in the REL.
“These include the fact that different manuscripts of the eponym list disagree slightly, and are imperfectly preserved, and that there are breaks in communication during winter between Aššur and Anatolia, all of which allow for varying reconstructions of the sequence and introduce a 0–5 year error potential [5, 8–11].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [8] E. Stratford, 2015, Successor Eponyms, Debt Notes, Intercalation, and the Old Assyrian Calendar during Kültepe Level II: A Critical Reappraisal, Journal of Near Eastern Studies source
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [11] W Nahm, 2013, The Case of the Lower Middle Chronology, Altorientalische Forschungen source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationVarious chronologies have been proposed and debated, with the range of dates for the end of the 1st Babylonian Dynasty varying by up to ~234 years at extremes since 1940, and 150+ years in more recent work.
“with the range of dates varying for the end of the 1st Babylonian Dynasty by up to ~234 years at extremes in scholarship since 1940, and 150+ years in more recent work [12].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [12] R Pruzsinszky, 2009, Mesopotamian Chronology of the 2nd Millennium B.C.: An Introduction to the Textual Evidence and Related Chronological Issues
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis finding provides a robust resolution to a century of uncertainty in Mesopotamian chronology and scholarship, and a secure basis for construction of a coherent timeframe and history across the Near East and East Mediterranean in the earlier second millennium BCE.
“This finding provides a robust resolution to a century of uncertainty in Mesopotamian chronology and scholarship, and a secure basis for construction of a coherent timeframe and history across the Near East and East Mediterranean in the earlier second millennium BCE.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningThe simultaneous destruction and transition from Lower Town Level II to Ib and from Old Palace to Waršama Palace has been maintained as the most likely scenario and employed as a premise, but this assumption cannot itself form a fundamental link in the evidence chain and needs to be tested.
“A simultaneous destruction and transition from (i) Lower Town Level II to Ib, and (ii) the destruction and transition from the Old Palace to the Waršama Palace has hitherto been maintained as the most likely scenario (e.g. [4]) and employed as a premise in [5]. But this assumption cannot itself form a fundamental link in the evidence chain and needs to be tested.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Waršama Palace of Mound Level 7 was constructed at approximately the same time as the Kültepe Lower Town Level II to Ib transition, on the citadel at the site of the burnt-down Old Palace of Mound Level 8, and is contemporary with Kültepe Lower Town Level Ib.
“At approximately the same time a new palace–the so-called Waršama Palace of Mound Level 7 –was constructed on the citadel at the site of its burnt-down predecessor, the so-called Old Palace of Mound Level 8, and is contemporary with Kültepe Lower Town Level Ib [4, 5, 24].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [4] MT Larsen, 2015, Ancient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [24] T Özgüç, 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe numerous finds of several types of items dating from the reign of Šamši-Adad I and other contemporary historical figures suggest that these items are not heirlooms, and therefore indicate that the construction and initial use of the Sarıkaya Palace must not post-date the death of Šamši-Adad I and REL 197, and indeed must pre-date his death by some years.
“The numerous, rather than occasional, finds of several types of items dating from the reign of Šamši-Adad I and a number of other contemporary historical figures, suggest that these items are not heirlooms, and therefore indicate that the construction and initial use of the Sarıkaya Palace must not post-date the death of Šamši-Adad I and REL 197 [5]–and indeed must pre-date his death by some years”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDendrochronological evidence for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is relevant and robust.
“It has previously been shown that dendrochronological evidence for two MBA sites, Kültepe and Acemhöyük, is relevant and robust [20, 23].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [20] PI Kuniholm, 1989, Anatolia and the ancient Near East: studies in honor of Tahsin Özgüç
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe finds of a dozen similarly aged and securely crossdated timbers with high inter-sample correlation make it very unlikely that these are instances of re-used wood; rather these timbers were newly cut wood obtained and used in major building projects.
“make it very unlikely that these are instances of re-used wood–rather these timbers were newly cut wood obtained and used in major building projects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenThe bullae found in the Sarıkaya Palace provide a relative date of the structure between REL 165 and the death of Aplahanda (after REL 208), with a cluster of dates for the bullae in the REL 190s.
“The bullae found in the Sarıkaya palace provide a relative date of the structure between REL 165 and the death of Aplahanda (after REL 208), with a cluster of dates for the bullae in the REL 190s.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationWood from the construction of the Waršama Palace with bark preserved allows dating of the exact year the tree was felled, offering a potential date for the palace's construction within a year or so and a potential tie point with the REL.
“There is wood (Juniperus spp.) from the construction of the Waršama Palace with bark preserved, which allows dating of the exact year that the tree was felled, thereby offering a potential date for the palace’s construction within a year or so [23], and a potential tie point with the REL [5].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [23] MW Newton, 2004, A Dendrochronological Framework for the Assyrian Colony Period in Asia Minor, Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi source
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningSecure absolute dating of these chronologies requires additional analysis using independent dating techniques.
“Secure absolute dating of these chronologies instead requires additional analysis using independent dating techniques.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIt is plausible that the majority of the sealed bullae postdate the construction of the room in which they were stored, and that at least some of these must include the 29 bullae carrying impressions of seals of Šamši-Adad I.
“Therefore, it is plausible that the majority of the sealed bullae postdate the construction of the room in which they were stored, and that at least some of these must include the 29 bullae carrying impressions of seals of Šamši-Adad I.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Heirloom sealings in the large group from Room 6 are only ‘old’ by less than a decade.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe final extant tree-ring of ACM-48 is close to bark and dates to the same year as other samples from the building with waney edges or bark, so these timbers should reasonably provide a terminus post quem for the deposition of the impressed bullae.
“The final extant tree-ring of ACM-48 is close to bark and dates to the same year as other samples from the building with waney edges or bark (Figure D in S1 File). Thus these timbers should reasonably provide a terminus post quem for the deposition of the impressed bullae.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThis leaves as plausible either the Middle Chronology or the slightly later Low-Middle Chronology.
“This leaves as plausible either the Middle Chronology or the slightly later Low-Middle Chronology.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe Middle Chronology offers the best fit between the Old Palace/Lower Town Level II evidence and the construction of the subsequent Waršama Palace, whereas the Low-Middle Chronology only just fits.
“The Middle Chronology offers the best fit between the Old Palace/Lower Town Level II evidence and the construction of the subsequent Waršama Palace, whereas the Low-Middle Chronology only just fits (Fig 9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe High Chronology may be ruled out because under it Šamši-Adad I would be dead four decades before the Sarıkaya Palace was constructed, incompatible with his numerous documentary links with the building.
“Thus the High Chronology (e.g. [17, 73]) may be ruled out.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [17] PJ Huber, 1982, Astronomical Dating of Babylon I and Ur III
- cites [73] PJ Huber, 1999, Astronomical Dating of Ur III and Akkad, Archive für Orientforschung
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe Low and New Chronologies would place REL associations (REL 80-110) attested in Old Palace contexts at Kültepe as dating respectively some 2 to 6, or 4 to 9, decades after the Waršama Palace had been built, which is impossible.
“the Low and New Chronologies would place REL associations (REL 80–110) attested in Old Palace contexts at Kültepe as dating respectively some 2 to 6, or 4 to 9, decades after the Waršama Palace had been built. This is impossible.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataWe confirmed the robustness of each chronology by building core chronologies of each site, removing outliers that are satisfactorily crossdated but muddy the chronology's common growth signal.
“We confirmed the robustness of each chronology by building core chronologies of each site, removing outliers that are satisfactorily crossdated but muddy the chronology’s “common growth signal”.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe notable coincidence of consonant scenarios based on integrated dendrochronological and 14C analysis of multiple timbers from monumental constructions at two sites (over 200km apart) demonstrates that the chronology identified reflects the correct historical timeframe and that our findings are not some accident caused by one or two re-used timbers or some other unusual situation affecting one 1
“the notable coincidence of consonant scenarios based on the integrated dendrochronological and 14C analysis of multiple timbers from monumental constructions at two sites (over 200km apart) demonstrates that the chronology identified reflects the correct historical timeframe and that our findings are not some accident caused by one or two re-used timbers or some other unusual situation affecting”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAnother cause must be given for the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly; previous hypotheses (especially [46]) are now unlikely.
“Another cause must be given for the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly–previous hypotheses (especially [46]) are now unlikely.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [46] CL Pearson, 2009, Dendrochemical analysis of a tree-ring growth anomaly associated with the Late Bronze Age eruption of Thera, Journal of Archaeological Science source
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe Middle Chronology minimizes the gap between the start of Lower Town Level Ib and the Earliest Use of the Waršama Palace to likely as little as ~8-24 years (whole 95.4% probability range), whereas it is likely ~16-33 years with the Low-Middle Chronology.
“The Middle Chronology also minimizes the gap between the start of Lower Town Level Ib and the Earliest Use (EU) of the Waršama Palace to likely as little as ~8–24 years (whole 95.4% probability range), whereas it is likely ~16–33 years with the Low-Middle Chronology (whole 95.4% probability range).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe new latest primary construction date (RY731) of 1794-1785 BCE (68.2% hpd) and removal of the previous Gordion-Porsuk-Acemhöyük dendrochronological linkage resolves the issue of the Sarıkaya Palace construction occurring around the time of Šamši-Adad I's death.
“The new latest primary construction date (RY731) of 1794–1785 BCE (68.2% hpd: Table 3), and removal of the previous Gordion-Porsuk-Acemhöyük dendrochronological linkage, resolves this issue.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataWith the shift in dendrochronological dates reported, the evidence fits comfortably under the Middle Chronology or (a little less) perfectly under the Low-Middle Chronology, but does not fit under the High, Low, or New Chronology scenarios.
“With the shift in dendrochronological dates that we report, this evidence now fits comfortably under the Middle Chronology or (a little less) perfectly under the Low-Middle Chronology (Fig 9)–but does not fit under the High, Low or New Chronology scenarios.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe death of Šamši-Adad I (REL 197) may be placed ~1776 BCE or ~1768 BCE, removing previous uncertainty levels of +56/64 calendar years (to the High Chronology) and -64/88 calendar years (to the Low or New Chronologies).
“To express this new resolution in calendar years, the death of Šamši-Adad I (REL 197) may be placed ~1776 BCE or ~1768 BCE, removing previous uncertainty levels of +56/64 calendar years (to the High Chronology) and -64/88 calendar years (to the Low or New Chronologies).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe assumption that the destruction/transition between Lower Town Levels II and Ib equates with the destruction of the Old Palace and building of the new Waršama Palace was almost approximately valid and the new information is consistent with the evidence to hand.
“Nonetheless, the assumption was almost approximately valid and our new information is consistent with the evidence to hand.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningBy dissociating the two conflagrations, there is enough time for the deposit of the numerous Šamši-Adad I bullae at Sarıkaya, but not enough time to render the later chronologies (Low Chronology, New Chronology) plausible.
“Finally, by dissociating the two conflagrations, we gain the necessary time for the deposit of the numerous Šamši-Adad I bullae at Sarıkaya (previously something of a problem), but not enough time to render any of the later chronologies (Low Chronology, New Chronology) plausible (Fig 9).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe marked decrease in the number of Assyrian dated texts around REL 125 at Kültepe follows the new date for the conflagration better and can be argued to reflect a reduction in commercial activity following the destruction and rebuilding of the central economic institution in the city.
“The marked decrease in the number of Assyrian dated texts [5] around REL 125 at Kültepe would also follow the new date for the conflagration better, and can be argued to reflect a reduction in commercial activity following the destruction and then rebuilding of the central economic institution in the city.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe late period of Lower Town Level II shows signs of a decreased degree of trade in general, probably caused by a wider systemic collapse after REL 110.
“The decrease is particularly evident when taking into consideration the fact that the late period of the Lower Town Level II shows signs of a decreased degree of trade in general–itself probably caused by a wider systemic collapse after REL 110 [5].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationNumerous sealings of Šamši-Adad I in the Sarıkaya Palace suggest they are unlikely all heirlooms or a secondary deposit, and that the palace must have existed for at least several years if not a decade or few decades before his death.
“And yet there are numerous sealings of Šamši-Adad I in the Sarıkaya Palace [26–29] suggesting, first, that they are unlikely all heirlooms (or a secondary deposit), and, second, that the palace must have existed for at least several years if not a decade or few decades before his death [5, 29].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [26] N Özgüç, 1980, Ancient Art in Seals
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [27] N Özgüç, 2015, Acemhöyük—Burušhaddum, I. Cylinder Seals and Bullae with Cylinder Seal Impressions
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [28] A Otto, 2000, Die Entstehung und Entwicklung des Klassisch-Syrischen Glyptik source
- cites [29] KR Veenhof, Proceedings of the 2<sup>nd</sup> Kültepe International Meeting
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataOxA-30907 was excluded in run 7b because it had divergent δ13C values recorded by the AMS versus those independently measured on an MS, and is considered inherently less than entirely reliable.
“* OxA-30907 for RY607-615 had divergent δ13C values recorded by the AMS versus those independently measured on an MS, and so is considered inherently less than entirely reliable and so was excluded in run 7b (but included in run 7a).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningBy separating the two fires, the tie between the REL sequence and the astronomical data (eclipses, Venus tablets), intercalations, and potentially the suggested link between a major volcanic dust veil and northern hemisphere tree-ring growth anomalies 1628-1627 BCE and poor atmospheric observation conditions in Mesopotamian records is retained.
“More importantly, by separating the two fires, we retain the tie between the REL sequence and the astronomical data (eclipses, Venus tablets), intercalations [5, 8–11, 15] and even potentially the suggested link between a major volcanic dust veil and several northern hemisphere tree-ring growth anomalies 1628–1627 BCE and poor atmospheric observation conditions as evident in Mesopotamian records [”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 7 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [8] E. Stratford, 2015, Successor Eponyms, Debt Notes, Intercalation, and the Old Assyrian Calendar during Kültepe Level II: A Critical Reappraisal, Journal of Near Eastern Studies source
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [11] W Nahm, 2013, The Case of the Lower Middle Chronology, Altorientalische Forschungen source
- cites [15] W Sallaberger, 2015, History & Philology
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [75] T de Jong, 2010, A new look at the Venus observations of Ammisaduqa: Traces of the Santorini eruption in the atmosphere of Babylon?, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe revised dendrochronological dates for the felling of the timber used in the construction of the Waršama Palace would require either that the two fire events were separate, contrary to what has generally been assumed, or else it would push back the traditional Middle Chronology by about a decade and a half.
“The revised dendrochronological dates for the felling of the timber used in the construction of the Waršama Palace proposed here would require either that the two fire events were separate, contrary to what has generally been assumed, or else it would push back the traditional Middle Chronology by about a decade and a half.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningIf so, this would provide a relatively proximate, very large explosive volcanic eruption whose dust veil would have travelled eastwards directly over Mesopotamia and which could well best explain the unusual atmospheric visual extinction conditions observed in Ammisaduqa years 12-13.
“If so, this would provide a relatively proximate, very large explosive volcanic eruption whose dust veil would have travelled (eastwards) directly over Mesopotamia and which could well best explain the unusual atmospheric visual extinction conditions observed in Ammisaduqa years 12–13 [10, 75].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- cites [75] T de Jong, 2010, A new look at the Venus observations of Ammisaduqa: Traces of the Santorini eruption in the atmosphere of Babylon?, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- The authors state this as an assumption: Inflation of ~15–20 years by the mid second millennium BCE in ice-core chronologies is assumed.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe precise dendro-14C-based timescale enables a robust historical synthesis of Ancient Near Eastern civilization in the earlier second millennium BCE; in particular, it facilitates comparison with the coherent historical and 14C-based timescale recently available from Egypt.
“Our precise dendro-14C-based timescale enables a robust historical synthesis of Ancient Near Eastern civilization in the earlier second millennium BCE; in particular, it facilitates comparison with the coherent historical and 14C-based timescale recently available from Egypt [50].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] C Bronk Ramsey, 2010, Radiocarbon-Based Chronology for Dynastic Egypt, Science source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationThe Santorini/Thera eruption was even larger than previously thought and so is even more likely responsible for a major signal in proxy records and a notable atmospheric dust veil.
“First, the Santorini/Thera eruption was even larger than previously thought [82], and so is even more likely responsible for a major signal in proxy records and a notable atmospheric dust veil.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [82] EN Johnson, 2014, Revised estimates for the volume of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption, Santorini, Greece, Journal of the Geological Society, London source
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationEarlier eclipses, such as in 1859 BCE, are too early, unless substantial reconsideration of the standard textual interpretation is considered.
“Earlier eclipses, such as in 1859 BCE [9], are too early, unless substantial reconsideration of the standard textual interpretation is considered.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- The authors state this as an assumption: The approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127 is retained.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationBoth the Middle and Low-Middle Chronology have suitable eclipse candidates within the approximate precision of the available textual evidence, but the 1838 BCE eclipse offers a slightly better (more conspicuous) case.
“Thus both the Middle and Low-Middle Chronology have suitable eclipse candidates within the approximate precision of the available textual evidence [5, 9], but the 1838 BCE eclipse offers a slightly better (more conspicuous) case [10].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [5] G Barjamovic, 2012, Ups and Downs at Kanesh–Observations on Chronology, History and Society in the Old Assyrian period
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [9] M Roaf, 2012, The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC, Akkadica source
- cites [10] T de Jong, 2013, Astronomical Fine-Tuning of the Chronology of the Hammurabi Age, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”
- The authors state this as an assumption: The approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127 is retained.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningAlthough the evidence does not allow a firm decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronologies-which are only 8 calendar years apart-the Low-Middle Chronology offers perhaps the best overall accommodation and compromise among all the evidence from both the dendro-14C side and the text-archaeology-astronomy side.
“Therefore, although our evidence does not allow a firm decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronologies–which are only 8 calendar years apart–we observe that the Low-Middle Chronology offers perhaps the best overall accommodation and compromise among all the evidence from both the dendro-14C side and the text-archaeology-astronomy side.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127 is retained.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Inflation of ~15–20 years by the mid second millennium BCE in ice-core chronologies is assumed.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe scale of plausible error is now very small and (even allowing for the competing Middle Chronology) less than 10 years in total.
“The scale of plausible error is now very small and (even allowing for the competing Middle Chronology) less than 10 years in total.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
The destruction/transition from Kültepe Lower Town Level II to Ib and from the Old Palace to the Waršama Palace were simultaneous.
“A simultaneous destruction and transition from (i) Lower Town Level II to Ib, and (ii) the destruction and transition from the Old Palace to the Waršama Palace has hitherto been maintained as the most likely scenario (e.g. [4]) and employed as a premise in [5]. But this assumption cannot itself form a fundamental link in the evidence chain and needs to be tested.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Heirloom sealings in the large group from Room 6 are only ‘old’ by less than a decade.
“given their large number (900 bullae and 43 tags from Room 6 alone) [26–29], it is reasonable to assume that such a larger group of heirloom sealings are only ‘old’ by less than a decade.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
14C measurements on identical tree-rings represent the same 14C age within 95% probability limits.
“All but one set of 14C measurements on identical tree-rings were compatible with the assumption of representing the same 14C age within 95% probability limits, and were considered as weighted average values [60].”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127 is retained.
“assuming we retain the approximate (within about 0–1 year) link between the birth of Šamši-Adad I in REL 126 and an eclipse in REL 127.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Inflation of ~15–20 years by the mid second millennium BCE in ice-core chronologies is assumed.
“Given the scale of age inflation identified over the most recent 2500 years [83], it would seem likely to assume inflation of ~15–20 years by the mid second millennium BCE, and so the major volcanic eruption signal previously placed in the 1640s BCE might move instead to the ~1620s BCE.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The MBA wiggle-match places likely earliest use (RY673) of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe ~1,837 to 1,826 BCE (95.4% hpd) and earliest use (RY732) of the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük ~1,778 to 1,767 BCE (95.4% hpd).
“The MBA wiggle-match in Fig. 1b places likely earliest use (RY673) of the Waršama Palace at Kültepe18 ~ 1,837 to 1,826 BCE (95.4% hpd) and the earliest use (RY732) of the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük18 ~ 1,778 to 1,767 BCE (95.4% hpd).”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
Table 3 in the Results section identifies RY673 and RY732 as the likely earliest-use years, but gives their 95.4% hpd ranges as 1855–1839 BCE and 1797–1781 BCE, respectively. Both date ranges in the citing sentence differ from those reported in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThis provides a specific and secure chronological placement for the later part of the time series, versus a lack of clarity with a smaller dataset and previous calibration curves.
“This provides a specific and secure chronological placement for the later part of the time series, versus a lack of clarity in this region with a smaller dataset and previous calibration curves18,21.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
In Materials and Methods, §14C and Dendrochronology (page unavailable), the paper reports robust calendar placements and says the newer IntCal13 curve reduced discrepancies in the earlier Gordion analysis. Fig. 5 also compares a placement using only part of the Gordion series. These passages support improved chronological placement, but do not establish the claimed lack of clarity specifically for the later part of the series with both a smaller dataset and previous calibration curves. (LLM, conf=0.79)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe wood samples from each site crossdate to form a single secure annual tree-ring chronology.
“Since the wood samples from each site crossdate to form a single secure annual tree-ring chronology18, the tree-ring sequenced series of 14C data (n = 76) over a 200-year period should offer close comparison with the NH 14C calibration curve.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
The Materials and Methods (Tree-ring samples; page unavailable) says samples from each site were crossdated into robust site chronologies. It also says the links between the combined MBA chronology and Porsuk, and between Gordion and Porsuk, are less than secure. Thus the paper supports secure chronologies at individual sites, but not a single secure chronology spanning all the sites. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredFor the time range of this study, Hd GeO values compare well with previous Seattle LLGPC measurements on GeO 1700 to 1500 BCE, Oxford (OxA) AMS 14C measurements on GeO 1354 to 1303 BCE and on Anatolian juniper from the late 21st to 20th centuries BCE, and Keck AMS 14C measurements on BCP 795 to 625 BCE.
“Hd GeO values compare well with previous Seattle LLGPC measurements on GeO 1700 to 1500 BCE (15), Oxford (OxA) AMS 14C measurements on GeO 1354 to 1303 BCE (24) and on Anatolian juniper from the late 21st to 20th centuries BCE (figs. S2 and S3) (46), and Keck Carbon Cycle Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Laboratory, University of California, Irvine AMS 14C measurements on BCP 795 to 625 BCE (fig. S4)”
From Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory (2020) · cites this paper as [46]
The Materials and Methods section (page unavailable) says that radiocarbon dates from different laboratories, including Heidelberg and Oxford, generally agree. It does not establish the claimed comparisons for GeO and BCP at the specified date ranges, or identify Seattle and Keck measurements in those comparisons. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredStudies linking textual and archaeological evidence from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük have created an independent dating framework for Mesopotamian chronology.
“For the Mesopotamian chronology, studies linking textual and archaeological evidence, especially from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük (Türkiye), with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük, have created an independent dating framework (Barjamovic et al. 2012;Manning et al. 2016Manning et al. , 2020)).”
From New evidence for Middle Bronze Age chronology from the Syro-Anatolian frontier (2023) · cites this paper as Manning et al. 2016
The only Mesopotamian chronological schemes potentially compatible with the wiggle-match are the High Middle or (especially) Low Middle Chronologies.
“The only Mesopotamian chronological schemes20 potentially compatible with the wiggle-match are the High Middle or (especially) Low Middle Chronologies (which are only 8 calendar years apart)18,19,21,28–31.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
The dendrochronology of the Juniperus sp. time series from Acemhöyük, Karahöyük and Kültepe is published.
“The dendrochronology of the Juniperus sp. time series from Acemhöyük, Karahöyük and Kültepe is published18.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
Timbers from the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük include bark, so the felling date and likely primary construction 0-1 year later is at RY730-731, suggesting earliest building use likely ~ RY732.
“Timbers from the Sarıkaya Palace at Acemhöyük include bark (felling date and likely primary construction 0–1 year later) at RY730–731, and so suggest earliest building use likely ~ RY73218.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
Timbers from the Waršama Palace at Kültepe include bark, so the felling date and likely primary construction 0-1 year later is placed RY670-672, suggesting earliest building use likely ~ RY673.
“Timbers from the Waršama Palace at Kültepe include bark. Hence the felling date and likely primary construction 0–1 year later is placed RY670–672, and so suggest earliest building use likely ~ RY67318.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
The archaeological associations between the contexts of the MBA tree ring time series and the sites of Kültepe and Acemhöyük are as previously outlined.
“The archaeological associations between the contexts of the MBA tree ring time series and the sites of Kültepe and Acemhöyük are as previously outlined18,19,21.”
From Radiocarbon offsets and old world chronology as relevant to Mesopotamia, Egypt, Anatolia and Thera (Santorini) (2020) · cites this paper as [18]
OxA AMS 14C data, or the demonstrated very comparable Vienna (VERA) AMS 14C data, comprise 79% and 75% of the two datasets for the Thera volcanic destruction level.
“These comparisons especially including OxA AMS 14C data are particularly relevant to the Thera case since OxA AMS 14C data, or the demonstrated very comparable Vienna (VERA) AMS 14C data (23, 46, 55), comprise 79% and 75% of the two datasets (55, 56) for the Thera volcanic destruction level.”
From Mediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory (2020) · cites this paper as [46]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Model 7b's 95.4% range excludes its reported median
MinorThe table assigns 85.6% probability to 1757-1773 BCE and another 9.8% to 1773-1764 BCE. Both intervals are older than the reported median of 1743 BCE, so they cannot describe the same distribution.
“1773–1764 (9.8%), 1757–1773 (85.6%)”
“| | 34/102 | 1746±10 | 1743 | 1749–1737 | 1773–1764 (9.8%), 1757–1773 (85.6%) | 5.5 | 18.8 | 5 |”
Table 3 shifts the Sarıkaya dates by one year relative to Waršama
MinorRY730 is 60 tree-ring years after RY670, so their calendar dates must differ by 60 years. Table 3 gives 1850 BCE and 1791 BCE, a difference of only 59 years; the same one-year discrepancy affects the other Sarıkaya rows.
“| RY670 | Waršama PC | 1850±4 | 1850 | 1854–1845 | 1858–1842 |”
“| RY730 | Sarıkaya PC | 1791±4 | 1791 | 1795–1786 | 1799–1783 |”
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“Again this may reflect a process (it is an enormous 1 hectare monumental structure [4, 24]) over 3 years, or stockpiling before building.”
BackgroundInfluentialAncient Kanesh: A Merchant Colony in Bronze Age Anatolia
Larsen, M. T. (2015) · doi:10.1017/cbo9781316344781 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Co2 Gas Proportional Counting in Radiocarbon Dating — Review and Perspective
Kromer, B., & Münnich, K. O. (1992) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-4249-7_13 · Cited by 84 · cited 1× · see citing works
“The samples were measured for (variously) 7 to 12 days at the Heidelberg Radiocarbon Laboratory low-level gas counters [59].”
BackgroundSelf-citationKromer, B., Manning, S. W., Kuniholm, P. I., Newton, M. W., Spurk, M., & Levin, I. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1066114 · Cited by 77 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Sample pretreatment and (14)C dating were performed on the juniper samples at the Heidelberg Radiocarbon Laboratory following methods described previously [22, 40, 57].”
MethodSelf-citationRevised estimates for the volume of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption, Santorini, Greece
Johnston, E. N., Sparks, R. S. J., Phillips, J. C., & Carey, S. (2014) · Journal of the Geological Society · doi:10.1144/jgs2013-113 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Manning, S. W., Höflmayer, F., Moeller, N., Dee, M. W., Ramsey, C. B., Fleitmann, D., Higham, T., Kutschera, W., & Wild, E. M. (2014) · Antiquity · doi:10.1017/s0003598x00115388 · Cited by 73 · cited 2× · see citing works
“383–386), it is noticeable that application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for the site compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology [98]–which has been rejected by the excavator of the site for no good reason [94]–and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timef…”
BackgroundSelf-citationRadiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt
Dodson, A. (2013) · Oxbow Books · doi:10.2307/j.ctvh1dmh2 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Crivellaro, A., Schweingruber, F. H., Christodoulou, C. S., et al. (2013) · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Badertscher, S., Borsato, A., Frisia, S., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Tüysüz, O., & Fleitmann, D. (2014) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.01.041 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
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Pushing the Precision Limit of 14C AMS
Steier, P., Dellinger, F., Kutschera, W., Priller, A., Rom, W., & Wild, E. M. (2004) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200039291 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationDie Entstehung und Entwicklung der Klassisch-Syrischen Glyptik
Otto, A. (1999) · doi:10.1515/9783110800661 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Kutschera, W., Bietak, M., Wild, E. M., Ramsey, C. B., Dee, M., Golser, R., Kopetzky, K., Stadler, P., Steier, P., Thanheiser, U., et al. (2012) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200047172 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Self-citation14C Dating of the Upper Paleolithic Site at Krems-Hundssteig in Lower Austria
Wild, E. M., Neugebauer-Maresch, C., Einwögerer, T., Stadler, P., Steier, P., & Brock, F. (2008) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200043332 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Self-citationPearson, C. L., Dale, D. S., Brewer, P. W., Kuniholm, P. I., Lipton, J., & Manning, S. W. (2009) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2009.01.009 · Cited by 53 · cited 4× · see citing works
“Another cause must be given for the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly–previous hypotheses (especially [46]) are now unlikely.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationDendrochronological Investigations in the Aegean and Neighboring Regions, 1983-1986
Kuniholm, P. I., & Striker, C. L. (1987) · Journal of Field Archaeology · doi:10.1179/jfa.1987.14.4.385 · Cited by 53 · cited 1× · see citing works
“(with ‘seasoning’, where mentioned, usually meaning literally after a season, so within 0–1 year of felling) in such roughhewn situations [71, 72] and especially when no lengthy transport is involved–in contrast to some ancient Mesopotamian accounts of timbers shipped long-distances down the Euphrates [30].”
BackgroundSass-Klaassen, U., Vernimmen, T., & Baittinger, C. (2008) · International Biodeterioration & Biodegradation · doi:10.1016/j.ibiod.2007.07.013 · Cited by 48 · cited 2× · see citing works
“First, the part of the chronology linking Gordion and Porsuk contains very low sample depth–with just 1 or 2 trees in the Gordion chronology (Fig 3, Figures A, B in S1 File)–too few for any secure crossdating following standard dendrochronological methods [32–35], which makes the best available match, whether statisti…”
BackgroundInfluentialSouthon, J. (2004) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200033129 · Cited by 46 · cited 1× · see citing works
“This is potentially in line with other observations suggesting the need for a ~20 year reduction in ages for these records around the 17 century BCE, based on comparison of two solar activity proxy records (which should therefore be similar): (i) the (10)Be record derived from the Greenland ice-cores versus (ii) the Δ…”
ResultThe Date of the Minoan Santorini Eruption: Quantifying the “Offset”
Höflmayer, F. (2012) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200047196 · Cited by 39 · cited 1× · see citing works
“383–386), it is noticeable that application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for the site compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology [98]–which has been rejected by the excavator of the site for no good reason [94]–and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timef…”
BackgroundDendrochronological Investigations in the Aegean and Neighboring Regions, 1977-1982
Kuniholm, P. I., & Striker, C. L. (1983) · Journal of Field Archaeology · doi:10.1179/009346983791504165 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Grudd, H., Briffa, K. R., Gunnarson, B. E., & Linderholm, H. W. (2000) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl010852 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Manning, S. W., Kromer, B., Bronk Ramsey, C., Pearson, C. L., Talamo, S., Trano, N., & Watkins, J. D. (2010) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200056320 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationAntagonisms in Historical and Radiocarbon Chronology
Bietak, M. (2013) · Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt · doi:10.2307/j.ctvh1dmh2.12 · Cited by 34 · cited 2× · see citing works
“383–386), it is noticeable that application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for the site compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology [98]–which has been rejected by the excavator of the site for no good reason [94]–and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timef…”
Background14C Dating of Humic Acids from Bronze and Iron Age Plant Remains from the Eastern Mediterranean
Wild, E. M., Steier, P., Fischer, P. M., & Höflmayer, F. (2013) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s003382220005774x · Cited by 32 · cited 1× · see citing works
“In addition, from one of the ABA samples, the humic acids–extracted in the alkaline step–were precipitated and measured to check whether their (14)C age deviates from that of the fully treated sample (which was obviously not the case) [56].”
BackgroundSelf-citation(1999) · Archiv für Orientforschung · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Veenhof, K. R. (2001) · BRILL eBooks · doi:10.1163/9789004497214_008 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
CHRONOLOGICAL LINKS BETWEEN THE CUNEIFORM WORLD OF THE ANCIENT NEAR EAST AND ANCIENT EGYPT
Klinger, J. (2006) · BRILL eBooks · doi:10.1163/9789047404002_020 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Alalakh and Chronology. By Sidney Smith.
Albright, W. F. (1943) · American Journal of Archaeology · doi:10.2307/499835 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Moeller, N., Marouard, G., & Ayers, N. (2013) · Ägypten und Levante · doi:10.1553/aeundl21s87 · Cited by 28 · cited 2× · see citing works
“383–386), it is noticeable that application of the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology dating could yield dates for the site compatible both with its detailed radiocarbon chronology [98]–which has been rejected by the excavator of the site for no good reason [94]–and other evidence indicating the need for an earlier timef…”
BackgroundMesopotamian Chronology of the 2nd Millennium B.C.
Pruzsinszky, R. (2009) · doi:10.1553/0x0022aa91 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Interpreting Radiocarbon Dates Using Evidence from Tree Rings
Bayliss, A., & Tyers, I. (2004) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200036018 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Ice-layer dating of eruption at Santorini
HUGHES, M. K. (1988) · Nature · doi:10.1038/335211b0 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Charpin, D. (2012) · I.B.Tauris eBooks · doi:10.5040/9780755625727 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
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“[93, 94])–are invalid andmust be revised (as also indicated by critical examination of both the relevant archaeological contexts and (14)C evidence [69, 95, 96]).”
BackgroundVinther, B. M., Clausen, H., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Steffensen, J. P., Andersen, K. K., Buchardt, S. L., Dahl‐Jensen, D., Seierstad, I. K., Svensson, A. M., et al. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jd009083 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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Dendrochronological investigations at Porsuk / Ulukisla, Turkey. Preliminary report, 1987-1989
Kuniholm, P. I., Tarter, S. L., Newton, M. W., & Griggs, C. B. (1992) · Syria · doi:10.3406/syria.1992.7294 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationA DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE ASSYRIAN COLONY PERIOD IN ASIA MINOR
W. NEWTON, M., & KUNIHOLM, P. I. (2004) · Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi Arkeoloji Dergisi · doi:10.22520/tubaar.2004.0013 · Cited by 11 · cited 13× · see citing works
“The KBK samples were analyzed in 2002 (this gas-counting facility is no longer in operation).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialManning, S. W. (2012) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199873609.013.0034 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citation5. Dendrochronology at Gordion
(2012) · The New Chronology of Iron Age Gordion · doi:10.9783/9781934536551.79 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
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Manning, S. W., Kromer, B., Dee, M. W., Friedrich, M., Higham, T. F. G., & Ramsey, C. B. (2013) · Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt · doi:10.2307/j.ctvh1dmh2.14 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationSeal Impressions from the Palaces at Acemhöyük
Özgüç, N., & Porada, E. (1980) · Cited by 8 · see citing works
The Fall of Babylon in 1499 NC or 1595 MC
Roaf, M. (2012) · Akkadica · doi:10.21825/akkadica.99626 · Cited by 8 · cited 3× · see citing works
“A decision between the Middle and Low-Middle Chronology largely hinges on the astronomical evidence, especially the record in the Mari Eponym Chronicle of what is interpreted as a solar eclipse placed about REL 127, the year after the birth of Šamši-Adad I [5, 9, 10, 15]– though there is some room for debate as the re…”
The New Chronology of Iron Age Gordion
DeVries, K., Kromer, B., Kuniholm, P. I., et al. (2012) · doi:10.2307/j.ctt3fhpv4 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationWarburton, D. A., Heinemeier, J., & Friedrich, W. (2009) · Cited by 6 · see citing works
(2010) · UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The Case for the Lower Middle Chronology
Nahm, W. (2013) · Altorientalische Forschungen · doi:10.1524/aof.2013.0018 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The Conquest Eponyms of Šamšī-Adad I and the Kaneš Eponym List
Bloch, Y. (2014) · Journal of Near Eastern Studies · doi:10.1086/677250 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
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Muscheler, R. (2009) · Time's Up! Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini · doi:10.2307/jj.35529235.27 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Radiocarbon and the Chronologies of Ancient Egypt
Dodson, A. (2013) · Oxbow Books · Cited by 2 · see citing works
The Fall of Babylon in 1499: Another Update
Warburton, D. A. (2011) · Akkadica · doi:10.21825/akkadica.99607 · Cited by 2 · cited 1× · see citing works
“[18, 19, 76]), the Middle or Low-Middle Chronology can henceforth be regarded in approximate terms–with a robust dendro-(14)C anchor–as the accurate timeframe for Resolving Mesopotamian Chronology”
14C Dating of Humic Acids from Bronze and Iron Age Plant Remains from the Eastern Mediterranean
Wild, E. M. (2013) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.2458/azu_js_rc.55.16450 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationHeinemeier, J., & Friedrich, W. L. (2009) · doi:10.2307/jj.35529235
Atlas of Wood, Bark and Pith Anatomy of Eastern Mediterranean Trees and Shrubs
Crivellaro, A., & Schweingruber, F. H. (2013) · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-37235-3
Frost rings in trees and volcanic eruptions
LAMARCHE, V. C., & HIRSCHBOECK, K. K. (1985) · Nature · doi:10.1038/313161a0
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- KR Veenhof, Proceedings of the 2<sup>nd</sup> Kültepe International Meeting
- 1982, Oxford: Clarendon Press, Oxford: Clarendon Press
- C Michel, 1997, . La chronologie du II<sup>e</sup> millénaire, revue à l’ombre d’une eclipse de soleil, Jaarbericht van het Vooraziatisch-Egyptisch Genootschap “Ex Oriente Lux”, 35–36, 111
- Muscheler R. <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>10</sup>Be around 1650 cal BC. In: Warburton DA, editor. Time’s Up! Dating the Minoan eruption of Santorini. Acts of the Minoan Eruption Chronology Workshop, Sandbjerg November 2007 initiated by Jan Heinemeier & Walter L. Friedrich. Århus: The Danish Institute at Athens; 2009. pp 275–284.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 bc
Manning, S. W., Kocik, C., Lorentzen, B., et al. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05693-y · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Self-citationSecuring timelines in the ancient Mediterranean using multiproxy annual tree-ring data
Pearson, C., Salzer, M., Wacker, L., Brewer, P., Sookdeo, A., & Kuniholm, P. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1917445117 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Radiocarbon re-dating of contact-era Iroquoian history in northeastern North America
Manning, S. W., Birch, J., Conger, M. A., Dee, M. W., Griggs, C., Hadden, C. S., Hogg, A. G., Ramsey, C. B., Sanft, S., Steier, P., et al. (2018) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav0280 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationMediterranean radiocarbon offsets and calendar dates for prehistory
Manning, S. W., Kromer, B., Cremaschi, M., Dee, M. W., Friedrich, R., Griggs, C., & Hadden, C. S. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz1096 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationManning, S. W., Birch, J., Conger, M. A., & Sanft, S. (2020) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2020.51 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
“…wiggle-match dating which could offer key dating potential, as exploited in a range of other areas and periods (e.g. Bayliss and Tyers 2004; Galimberti et al. 2004; 1802 S W Manning et al. Barfield et al. 2010; Quarta et al. 2010; Manning et al. 2016; Hogg et al. 2017; Turkon et al. 2018).”
BackgroundSelf-citationClimate Change and State Evolution
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2020893118 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Manning, S. W., Wacker, L., Büntgen, U., Bronk Ramsey, C., Dee, M. W., Kromer, B., Lorentzen, B., & Tegel, W. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-69287-2 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationBarjamovic, G. (2018) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108340946.006 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationMcAneney, J., & Baillie, M. (2019) · Antiquity · doi:10.15184/aqy.2018.165 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
“2009) i.e. a single year between 1654 − 1643 cal BC. Subsequent radiocarbon dating of the Porsuk site chronology, however, has determined that the anomaly occurred around 20 years earlier than originally determined, thus ruling out the relevance of the date as being too old (Manning et al .”
Manning, S. W., Lorentzen, B., Welton, L., Batiuk, S. D., & Harrison, T. P. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0240799 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationThe origins of political institutions and property rights
Benati, G., Guerriero, C., & Zaina, F. (2022) · Journal of Comparative Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jce.2022.07.002 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Glatz, C., Casana, J., Bendrey, R., et al. (2019) · American Journal of Archaeology · doi:10.3764/aja.123.3.0439 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Massa, M., Bachhuber, C., Şahin, F., et al. (2020) · Anatolian Studies · doi:10.1017/s0066154620000034 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“…Kuzucuoğlu 1998), Beyşehir, Eski Acıgöl, Tecer and Nar lakes (Eastwood et al. 1998; Kuzucuoğlu et al. 2011; Roberts et al. 2016), the Kocain stalactite record (Göktürk 2011) and several dendroclimatic samples from Konya-Karahöyük dateable to the early second millennium BCE (Manning et al. 2016).”
BackgroundManning, S. W., Smith, A. T., Khatchadourian, L., Badalyan, R., Lindsay, I. D., Greene, A. F., & Marshall, M. E. (2018) · Antiquity · doi:10.15184/aqy.2018.171 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationWhat's in a Vessel's Name? A Relational Text-Object Approach to the Uses of Mesopotamian Pottery
Calderbank, D. (2020) · American Journal of Archaeology · doi:10.3764/aja.125.1.0029 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Shaar, R., Bechar, S., Finkelstein, I., Gallet, Y., Martin, M. A. S., Ebert, Y., Keinan, J., & Gonen, L. (2020) · Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems · doi:10.1029/2020gc009251 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“Radiocarbon calculated using IntCal13 calibration curve following Martin et al. (2020). Archeological ages for Megiddo reflect the age range of the context considering radiocarbon ages, historical constraints, material cultures and historical constraints; the above without radiocarbon ages for Hazor.”
MethodVignola, C., Marzaioli, F., Restelli, F. B., Nocera, G. M. D., Frangipane, M., Masi, A., Passariello, I., Sadori, L., & Terrasi, F. (2019) · Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms · doi:10.1016/j.nimb.2019.01.033 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Matessi, A. (2016) · Journal of Ancient Near Eastern History · doi:10.1515/janeh-2017-0004 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Absolute dating of the European Neolithic using the 5259 BC rapid 14C excursion
Maczkowski, A., Pearson, C. L., Francuz, J., Giagkoulis, T., Szidat, S., Wacker, L., Bolliger, M., Kotsakis, K., & Hafner, A. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48402-1 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Ceremonial plant consumption at Middle Bronze Age Büklükale, Kırıkkale Province, central Turkey
Fairbairn, A., Wright, N., Weeden, M., et al. (2018) · Vegetation History and Archaeobotany · doi:10.1007/s00334-018-0703-x · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationA Synchronized Early Middle Bronze Age Chronology for Egypt, the Levant, and Mesopotamia
Höflmayer, F., & Manning, S. W. (2022) · Journal of Near Eastern Studies · doi:10.1086/718498 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citationSecond Intermediate Period date for the Thera (Santorini) eruption and historical implications
Manning, S. W. (2022) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0274835 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationINFLUENCE OF AIR PARCELS FROM NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERES ON RADIOCARBON-BASED INCA CHRONOLOGY
Ancapichún, S., Pawlyta, J., Rakowski, A. Z., & Sieczkowska, D. (2022) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2022.87 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“The chronology of ancient cultures, such as Egypt or Mesopotamia, has been widely studied (Spence 2000; Huber 2011; Manning et al. 2016; Manning et al. 2017).”
BackgroundThe economic and institutional determinants of trade expansion in Bronze Age Greater Mesopotamia
Benati, G., Guerriero, C., & Zaina, F. (2021) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2021.105398 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The Occupational History of the Bronze Age Harbour City of Hala Sultan Tekke, Cyprus
Fischer, P. M. (2020) · Ägypten und Levante · doi:10.1553/aeundl29s189 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Canine Economies of the Ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean
Price, M. D., Meier, J. S., & Arbuckle, B. S. (2020) · Journal of Field Archaeology · doi:10.1080/00934690.2020.1848322 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Bunnefeld, J., Becker, J. A., Lutz, M., et al. (2023) · Acta Archaeologica · doi:10.1163/16000390-20210031 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Аркадиевич, Г. С. (2021) · Journal of Ancient History and Archeology · doi:10.14795/j.v8i2.633 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Matessi, A. (2021) · Journal of Anthropological Archaeology · doi:10.1016/j.jaa.2021.101293 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
WINE FROM MAMMA:<i>ALLUḪARUM</i>-POTS IN 17<sup>TH</sup>-CENTURY<scp>bc</scp>TRADE NETWORKS
Morgan, K. R., & Richardson, S. (2020) · Iraq · doi:10.1017/irq.2020.6 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“86 For textual and scientific evidence from Anatolia in support of the Middle Chronology, see also Barjamovic et al. 2012, Manning et al. 2016, and Manning et al. 2017.”
BackgroundGuerriero, C., Benati, G., & Zaina, F. (2019) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3395353 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
New evidence for Middle Bronze Age chronology from the Syro-Anatolian frontier
Herrmann, V. R., Manning, S. W., Morgan, K. R., Soldi, S., & Schloen, D. (2023) · Antiquity · doi:10.15184/aqy.2023.30 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“…chronology, studies linking textual and archaeological evidence, especially from Kültepe, Mari and Acemhöyük (Türkiye), with dendrochronological and radiocarbon evidence from Kültepe and Acemhöyük, have created an independent dating framework (Barjamovic et al. 2012; Manning et al. 2016, 2020).”
BackgroundSelf-citationYasur‐Landau, A., Cline, E. H., Manning, S. W., et al. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research · doi:10.1086/711885 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“…itself, andotherOldAssyrian associations across the sites of Kültepe, Karahöyük, and Acemhöyük allows resolution in terms broadly of the Middle Chronology and most likely the Low-Middle Chronology (dating some eight years later) (Manning et al. 2016, 2020; Manning, Barjamovic, and Lorentzen 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citationAssyrians Abroad: Expanding Borders Through Mobile Identities in the Middle Bronze Age
Highcock, N. A. (2017) · Journal of Ancient Near Eastern History · doi:10.1515/janeh-2017-0016 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Middle Bronze Age Zincirli: The Date of “Hilani I” and the End of Middle Bronze II
Herrmann, V. R., & Schloen, D. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research · doi:10.1086/711911 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“provides further support for theMesopotamianMiddle Chronology, which also fits the textual evidence and dendrochronological results fromKültepe and Acemhöyük in light of the Revised Eponym List of Aššur (Barjamovic, Hertel, and Larsen 2012; Manning et al. 2016).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialDendrochronology and Archaeology
Manning, S. W. (2023) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119592112.ch3 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationRadiocarbon Dating of the Transition from the Early to the Middle Bronze Age in Northeastern Syria
Koliński, R., & Goślar, T. (2019) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2019.49 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
“A recently published study of the dendrochronological evidence from 2nd millennium BC Anatolia favors both the so-called Conventional Middle Chronology and the Low-Middle Chronology, younger by 8 years (Manning et al. 2016; Table 1).”
BackgroundInfluentialKlontza-Jaklová, V. (2016) · Masarykova univerzita eBooks · doi:10.5817/cz.muni.m210-8472-2016 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Resolution of the High versus Low debate for Old and Middle Kingdom Egypt
Erdil, P., Webster, L., Kuitems, M., Knoblauch, C., Bestock, L., Höflmayer, F., Beeckman, H., Fuller, D. Q., Manning, S. W., & Dee, M. W. (2025) · PLOS One · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0314612 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationKessler, N. V., Hodgins, G. W. L., Butler, B. M., Kartha, P. S., Welch, P. D., & Brennan, T. K. (2022) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2022.84 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Climate Change and State EvolutionPreprint
Guerriero, C., & Benati, G. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3725063 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
NEW RADIOCARBON DATES FROM SOUTHERN MESOPOTAMIA (FARA AND UR)
Wencel, M. M. (2018) · Iraq · doi:10.1017/irq.2018.4 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“Dendrochronology (e.g., Manning 2001; Manning et al. 2016) and radiocarbon dating are important allies for researchers of late prehistory and early history in Southern Mesopotamia.”
BackgroundWebster, L. C., Smith, A., Dee, M., Hajdas, I., & Schwartz, G. M. (2023) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/rdc.2023.36 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
“When the kingdom rapidly fell apart following Shamshi-Adad’s death in 1768 BC (lower Middle Chronology), much of northern Mesopotamia reverted to small independent states.”
BackgroundInfluentialHorse and Chariot. Critical Reflections on one Theory
Grigoriev, S. (2023) · Archaeologia Austriaca · doi:10.1553/archaeologia107s159 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
ORIGINS OF THE GREEKS AND GREEK DIALECTS
Grigoriev, S. (2022) · Journal of Ancient History and Archeology · doi:10.14795/j.v9i1.697 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Herding with the Hounds: The Game of Fifty-eight Holes in the Abşeron Peninsula
Crist, W., & Abdullayev, R. R. O. (2024) · European Journal of Archaeology · doi:10.1017/eaa.2024.24 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“Another early example was found in Stratum II at Kültepe in central Anatolia, which according to the Mesopotamian Middle Chronology — the best-supported chron-ology according to 14 C and dendrochrono-logical evidence (Manning et al., 2016) — dates from c. 1885 to 1836 BC (Manning et al., 2017: 75).”
Klontza, V. (2017) · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Szabadváry, T., Tarbay, G., Mozgai, V., et al. (2021) · Communicationes Archaeologicae Hungariae · doi:10.54640/cah.2019.51 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Complications and challenges for securing Mediterranean timelines
Manning, S. W. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2006552117 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Origins of (a Culture of) Cooperation.Preprint
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4181876 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Archaeological Science in Practice
Dardeniz, G. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-90799-6.00162-2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Absolutely dating the European Neolithic through a rapid 14C excursionPreprint
Maczkowski, A., Pearson, C. L., Francuz, J., Giagkoulis, T., Szidat, S., Wacker, L., Bolliger, M., Kotsakis, K., & Hafner, A. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3419721/v1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Guerriero, C., & Benati, G. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5261717 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Reply to Manning: Dating of Gordion tree-ring sequence still stands within a year of 745 BC
Pearson, C. L., Salzer, M. W., Wacker, L., Brewer, P. W., Sookdeo, A., & Kuniholm, P. I. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2007824117 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Periods of peace between major powers in world history
McKinney, J. M. (2020) · doi:10.32657/10356/143008
The Economic and Institutional Determinants of Trade Expansion in Bronze Age MesopotamiaPreprint
Benati, G., Guerriero, C., & Zaina, F. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3770280
Calendars in Old Assyrian Sources
Michel, C. (2021) · Studia Chaburensia · doi:10.13173/978334715957.077
Аркадиевич, Г. С. (2022) · Археология Евразийских степей · doi:10.24852/2587-6112.2022.6.186.200
Wells, B. (2024) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108636322.001
Аркадиевич, Г. С. (2025) · Journal of Ancient History and Archeology · doi:10.14795/j.v11i4.1142
Johnson, P. (2025) · De Gruyter eBooks · doi:10.1515/9783111706962-003
The origins of (a culture of) cooperation
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2026) · The Journal of Law Economics and Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/ewag005
Christopoulou, A., Karadimas, N., Özarslan, Y., & Ważny, T. (2026) · Dendrochronologia · doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126500
Akkemık, Ü., Ważny, T., Metin, M., Güngör, G. Ö., Elzanowska, A., Köse, N., & Rose, C. B. (2026) · Dendrochronologia · doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126588
The Middle Bronze I Foundation of Hazor
Bechar, S., & Yasur‐Landau, A. (2026) · Palestine Exploration Quarterly · doi:10.1080/00310328.2026.2696117
- Authors
- Manning, S. W., Griggs, C. B., Lorentzen, B., Barjamovic, G., Ramsey, C. B., Kromer, B., & Wild, E. M.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Manning, Sturt W.
- Griggs, Carol B.
- Lorentzen, Brita
- Barjamovic, Gojko
- Ramsey, Christopher Bronk
- Kromer, Bernd
- Wild, Eva Maria
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2016-07-13
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- e0157144
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4943651
- OpenAlex
- W2465926432
- Semantic Scholar
- f7f261241c6d91ed17675484852c5792b217a00d
- Cited by
- 65
- References
- 93
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 2.82
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Phaidra (Universität Wien) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
- Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (BCS 1219315)
- Cornell University
- Malcolm H Wiener Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Archaeology and ancient environmental studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology › Ancient Near East History
- Keywords
- Mesopotamian chronology, 2nd millennium BC, dendrochronology, radiocarbon dating, Kültepe, Santorini eruption, Hammurabi, clay tablets
- MeSH terms
- Carbon Radioisotopes, Middle East, Time Factors, Trees, Turkey, Wood, Volcanic Eruptions, History, Ancient
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-17.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-17.
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