Reasons for Testing Mediation in the Absence of an Intervention Effect: A Research Imperative in Prevention and Intervention Research
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: Mediation models are used in prevention and intervention research to assess the mechanisms by which interventions influence outcomes. However, researchers may not investigate mediators in the absence of intervention effects on the primary outcome variable. There is emerging evidence that in some situations, tests of mediated effects can be statistically significant when the total intervention effect is not statistically significant. In addition, there are important conceptual and practical reasons for investigating mediation when the intervention effect is nonsignificant. METHOD: This article discusses the conditions under which mediation may be present when an intervention effect does not have a statistically significant effect and why mediation should always be considered important. RESULTS: Mediation may be present in the following conditions: when the total and mediated effects are equal in value, when the mediated and direct effects have opposing signs, when mediated effects are equal across single and multiple-mediator models, and when specific mediated effects have opposing signs. Mediation should be conducted in every study because it provides the opportunity to test known and replicable mediators, to use mediators as an intervention manipulation check, and to address action and conceptual theory in intervention models. CONCLUSIONS: Mediators are central to intervention programs, and mediators should be investigated for the valuable information they provide about the success or failure of interventions.
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The power of mediation is likely greater than the power of the total effect test because the mediator is more closely related to the outcome and measured closer in time than the intervention.
“the power of mediation is likely greater than the power of the test of the total effect because the mediator (untrained N-back) is more closely related to the outcome measure (Matrix Reasoning) than the intervention, and was measured more closely in time with the outcome measure than the intervention52.”
From Near transfer to an unrelated N-back task mediates the effect of N-back working memory training on matrix reasoning (2022) · cites this paper as [52]
Mediated effects can be statistically significant in the absence of a total effect in certain situations.
“There is evidence to suggest that in certain situations, mediated effects can be statistically significant in the absence of a total effect.”
From Near transfer to an unrelated N-back task mediates the effect of N-back working memory training on matrix reasoning (2022) · cites this paper as [52]
Prior literature suggests it is advisable to test a mediation model even without a direct effect from the predictor to the outcome.
“prior literature suggesting that it is advisable to test a mediation model even without a direct effect from the predictor to the outcome (O'Rourke and MacKinnon 2018)”
From Early Family Experiences and Neural Activity in Rural Pakistani Children: The Differential Role of Gender (2024) · cites this paper as O'Rourke and MacKinnon 2018
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- Authors
- O’Rourke, H. P., & MacKinnon, D. P.
- Affiliations
- Arizona State University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs
- Publisher
- Alcohol Research Documentation, Inc.
- Published
- 2018-03
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 171-181
- ISSN
- 1937-1888 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-4114
- PMC
- PMC6019768
- OpenAlex
- W2793680641
- Cited by
- 268
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 12.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01DA009757, R37DA009757, T32DA039772)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Behavioral Health and Interventions
- Keywords
- mediation analysis, intervention effects, prevention research, intervention research, intervention mechanisms, multiple mediators, manipulation checks, intervention model, alcohol and drug prevention
- MeSH terms
- Alcoholism, Female, Humans, Research Design, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, Negotiating
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