Economic Shocks and Civil War
Open accessAbstract
This article revisits the relationship between income per capita and civil conflict. We begin by documenting that the empirical literature identifies two different patterns. First, poor countries have a higher propensity to suffer from civil war. Second, civil war occurs when countries suffer negative income shocks. In a formal model we examine an explanation often suggested in the informal literature: civil wars occur in poor countries because the opportunity cost of fighting is small. We show that while this explanation fails to make sense of the first empirical pattern, it provides a coherent theoretical basis for the second. We then enrich the model to allow for private imperfect information about the state of the economy and show that mutual fears exacerbate the problem caused by negative income shocks.
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Participation in conflict is more attractive when individuals expect to earn more from criminal or insurgent activities than from lawful and peaceful ones.
“In such situations, participation in conflict is rated more attractive when individuals (especially low-income groups) expect to earn more from criminal or insurgent activities than from lawful and peaceful ones (Chassang and Padro i Miquel 2009, Koubi et al 2012).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Chassang and Padro i Miquel 2009
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“Civilians with limited economic opportunities face lower costs for joining the opposition (Chassang and Padró i Miquel 2009; Shadmehr 2019).”
Background
- Authors
- Chassang, S., & Miquel, G. P. I.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- LSE, BREAD and NBER
- Corresponding author
- Chassang, Sylvain
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of Political Science
- Publisher
- Emerald
- Published
- 2009-10-20
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 211-228
- ISSN
- 1554-0626 (ISSN-L)
- 1554-0634
- OpenAlex
- W2167880899
- Cited by
- 194
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 34.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- papers.ssrn.com
- Locations
- Quarterly Journal of Political Science (publishedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (acceptedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/F041764/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Defense, Military, and Policy Studies
- Keywords
- civil war, economic shocks, per capita income, poverty, imperfect information, private information, civil conflict
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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