Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict
Open accessAbstract
Despite many claims by high-ranking policymakers and some scientists that climate change breeds violent conflict, the existing empirical literature has so far not been able to identify a systematic, causal relationship of this kind. This may either reflect de facto absence of such a relationship, or it may be the consequence of theoretical and methodological limitations of existing work. In this article we revisit the climate–conflict hypothesis along two lines. First, we concentrate on indirect effects of climatic conditions on conflict, whereas most of the existing literature focuses on direct effects. Specifically, we examine the causal pathway linking climatic conditions to economic growth and to armed conflict, and argue that the growth–conflict part of this pathway is contingent on the political system. Second, we employ a measure of climatic variability that has advantages over those used in the existing literature because it can presumably take into account the adaptation of production to persistent climatic changes. For the empirical analysis we use a global dataset for 1980–2004 and design the testing strategy tightly in line with our theory. Our empirical analysis does not produce evidence for the claim that climate variability affects economic growth. However, we find some, albeit weak, support for the hypothesis that non-democratic countries are more likely to experience civil conflict when economic conditions deteriorate.
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Participation in conflict is more attractive when individuals expect to earn more from criminal or insurgent activities than from lawful and peaceful ones.
“In such situations, participation in conflict is rated more attractive when individuals (especially low-income groups) expect to earn more from criminal or insurgent activities than from lawful and peaceful ones (Chassang and Padro i Miquel 2009, Koubi et al 2012).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Koubi et al 2012
Cites
The Logic of Political Survival
Bueno de Mesquita, B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2003) · doi:10.7551/mitpress/4292.001.0001 · Cited by 4,217 · cited 2× · see citing works
“In addition, since democratic political leaders are responsive to a larger winning coalition and lack sufficient resources to reward their comparatively large group of supporters with private goods, they have to resort to the provision of public goods – including economic prosperity – to ensure political support and,…”
Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset
GLEDITSCH, N. P., WALLENSTEEN, P., ERIKSSON, M., SOLLENBERG, M., & STRAND, H. (2002) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343302039005007 · Cited by 3,846 · cited 1× · see citing works
“We use data on civil conflict onset from the Onset of Armed Conflict Dataset, a joint project of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the Centre for the Study of Civil War at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (see Gleditsch et al., 2002).”
MethodEconomic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/421174 · Cited by 2,460 · see citing works
Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa
Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I. (2012) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343311426165 · Cited by 559 · cited 2× · see citing works
“In the existing literature, most studies use levels of rainfall and/or growth in rainfall (e.g. Miguel et al., 2004; Hendrix & Glaser, 2007; Brückner & Ciccone, 2007, 2010) and precipitation/temperature deviation from the sample mean (i.e. Buhaug, 2010; Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012).”
BackgroundGlobal climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history
Zhang, D. D., Brecke, P., Lee, H. F., He, Y.-Q., & Zhang, J. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0703073104 · Cited by 540 · see citing works
Climate not to blame for African civil wars
Buhaug, H. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1005739107 · Cited by 429 · see citing works
Chassang, S., & Miquel, G. P. I. (2009) · Quarterly Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1561/100.00008072 · Cited by 194 · cited 4× · see citing works
“5 See Powell (2006) on the commitment problem and Snyder & Jervis (1999) on mutual fears and security.”
BackgroundInfluential
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Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., Field, C. B., Hendrix, C. S., Maystadt, J.-F., O’Loughlin, J., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6 · Cited by 619 · see citing works
Koubi, V. (2019) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070830 · Cited by 485 · see citing works
Self-citationMartin-Shields, C. P., & Stojetz, W. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.011 · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Environmental changes and violent conflict
Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., & Koubi, V. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015601 · Cited by 245 · see citing works
Self-citationGassebner, M., Lamla, M. J., & Vreeland, J. R. (2013) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002712446132 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
O’Loughlin, J., Linke, A. M., & Witmer, F. D. W. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1411899111 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Jones, B. T., Mattiacci, E., & Braumoeller, B. F. (2017) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316684662 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
On climate variability and civil war in Asia
Wischnath, G., & Buhaug, H. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Rice or riots: On food production and conflict severity across India
Wischnath, G., & Buhaug, H. (2014) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.07.004 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa
Detges, A. (2016) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316651922 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Climate change, the economy, and conflict
Koubi, V. (2017) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0074-x · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationQuantifying the influence of climate variability on armed conflict in Africa, 2000-2015
Wang, Q., Hao, M., Helman, D., Ding, F., Jiang, D., Xie, X., Chen, S., & Ma, T. (2023) · Environment, Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02436-x · Cited by 24 · see citing works
The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways
Xie, X., Hao, M., Ding, F., Scheffran, J., Ide, T., Maystadt, J.-F., Qian, Y., Wang, Q., Chen, S., Wu, J., et al. (2024) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ad8a21 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
- Authors
- Koubi, V., Bernauer, T., Kalbhenn, A., & Spilker, G.
- Affiliations
- University of Bern (CH)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- European Central Bank (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Koubi, Vally
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-01-01
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 113-127
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W2135104700
- Cited by
- 192
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 11 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 62.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- Open Access CRIS of the University of Bern
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate variability, civil conflict, armed conflict, economic growth, political system, democracy, non-democratic regimes, climate change adaptation, indirect effects
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