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Systematic Evaluation and Comparison of Statistical Tests for Publication Bias
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the statistical and discriminatory powers of three statistical test methods (Begg's, Egger's, and Macaskill's) to detect publication bias in meta-analyses. METHODS: The data sources were 130 reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2002 issue, which considered a binary endpoint and contained 10 or more individual studies. Funnel plots with observers'agreements were selected as a reference standard. We evaluated a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity by varying cut-off p-values, power of statistical tests given fixed false positive rates, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: In 36 reviews, 733 original studies evaluated 2,874,006 subjects. The number of trials included in each ranged from 10 to 70 (median 14.5). Given that the false positive rate was 0.1, the sensitivity of Egger's method was 0.93, and was larger than that of Begg's method (0.86) and Macaskill's method (0.43). The sensitivities of three statistical tests increased as the cut-off p-values increased without a substantial decrement of specificities. The area under the ROC curve of Egger's method was 0.955 (95% confidence interval, 0.889-1.000) and was not different from that of Begg's method (area=0.913, p=0.2302), but it was larger than that of Macaskill's method (area=0.719, p=0.0116). CONCLUSION: Egger's linear regression method and Begg's method had stronger statistical and discriminatory powers than Macaskill's method for detecting publication bias given the same type I error level. The power of these methods could be improved by increasing the cut-off p-value without a substantial increment of false positive rate.
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“Publication bias was evaluated visually with funnel plots and statistically via Egger's test [23].”
From Ketogenic diet-induced changes in adult lipid metabolism: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-regression of randomized controlled trials (2026) · cites this paper as [23]
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Zhai, J., & Aryadoust, V. (2024) · Metacognition and Learning · doi:10.1007/s11409-024-09392-z · Cited by 5
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“05 was considered statistically significant [26].”
Yan, L., Pu, C., Rastogi, S., Choudhury, R., Shekar, M. K., & Talukdar, G. (2023) · Advances in Clinical and Experimental Medicine · doi:10.17219/acem/162538 · Cited by 4
AlMugeiren, O. M., Assari, A. S., Alshehri, K. A., Alsharidah, M. A., Alotaibi, A. N., & Alzaid, A. H. (2024) · Journal of Oral Biology and Craniofacial Research · doi:10.1016/j.jobcr.2024.03.008 · Cited by 4
“34 The risk ratio of the studies included in the analysis was calculated utilizing the RevMan software.”
MethodSreeramareddy, C. T., Sathyanarayana, T., Anchala, R., & Kumar, H. H. (2015) · Campbell Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/cl2.147 · Cited by 4
Yin, L., Yue, C., Jing, H., Yu, H., Zuo, L., & Liu, T. (2020) · Hereditas · doi:10.1186/s41065-020-00125-1 · Cited by 4
Paediatric Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-AnalysisPreprint
Crouch, S. H., Soepnel, L. M., Kolkenbeck‐Ruh, A., Maposa, I., Naidoo, S., Davies, J. I., Norris, S. A., & Ware, L. J. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3915451 · Cited by 4
Hypertension and Risk of Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Mohammad, A., Yadav, I., Lashari, U. G., Sabra, S., Sabra, A., Sabra, M., Tariq, F., & Rajput, J. (2025) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.99863 · Cited by 11
“Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger’s regression test; a p-value <0.05 indicated significant asymmetry and potential bias [10].”
InfluentialYuan, Y., Zhong, R., Lai, H., Huang, Z., Zeng, Y., Wu, S., & Zhong, L. (2021) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000023964 · Cited by 3
Peng, J., Wang, Y., Kuang, D., Wang, Y., Wu, G., Li, H., Li, D., & Cao, H. (2024) · BMC Oral Health · doi:10.1186/s12903-024-04330-6 · Cited by 3
“Begg’s funnel plot, Egger’s test, Trim and Fill model were used to evaluate funnel plot asymmetry to detect publication bias [33], with P 0.05 as the cut-off to define significance.”
MethodInfluentialZhang, J., Liu, X., He, G., Qiu, Z., Yan, M., Zhang, M., Wu, D., Ding, C., Liu, L., & Chen, X. (2025) · Journal of Endodontics · doi:10.1016/j.joen.2025.04.013 · Cited by 3
Effects of arsenic trioxide combined with platinum drugs in treatment of cervical cancer
Zhang, Y., Pan, D., Yang, H., Huang, J., He, Z., Li, H., & Li, D. (2020) · Medicine · doi:10.1097/md.0000000000022950 · Cited by 3
“Funnel plot will be used to reveal potential publication bias if over 10 studies are available.([18])”
MethodThe RNASEL −1385G/A polymorphism is associated with risk of prostate cancer in Africans
Liu, X., Zheng, D., Lu, G., & Yang, B. (2017) · OncoTargets and Therapy · doi:10.2147/ott.s151398 · Cited by 3
“05 was considered significant.(23) All statistical tests for meta-analyses were performed using Stata software version 10.”
Zhu, H., Yu, L., & Feng, L. (2021) · Genes and Environment · doi:10.1186/s41021-021-00189-z · Cited by 3
“Begg’s funnel plots and Egger’s regression test were performed to estimate the potential publication bias [38].”
MethodRisk Factors for Severe Illness and Death in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysisPreprint
Degarege, A., Naveed, Z., Kabayundo, J., & Brett‐Major, D. M. (2021) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-133791/v1 · Cited by 3
Li, C., Zhang, M., & Xie, K. (2025) · Information Communication & Society · doi:10.1080/1369118x.2025.2584142 · Cited by 6
“The bias estimate was 1.52, suggesting a tendency for smaller studies with larger effects to be overrepresented (Hayashino et al., 2005).”
InfluentialMaimani, B. A., Farhin, F., Saha, S., Mahbub, F., Supty, D., Paul, A. K., Tina, N. M., Maksud, F. B., Sharmin, N., & Islam, S. (2026) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.105453 · Cited by 4
“All statistical tests were two-tailed, with statistical significance set at p 0.05, except for the Egger test, for which p 0.10 was used, as recommended for publication bias assessment [12].”
InfluentialMao, Y., Soh, K. G., Siswantoyo, & Wang, X. (2026) · Frontiers in Sports and Active Living · doi:10.3389/fspor.2026.1800110 · Cited by 2
“Begg’s test will detect bias statistically, with a p -value 0.05 indicating significant bias (52).”
InfluentialHekmatikar, A. H. A., Santamaría, G., Miguel, A. M., Roche, E., Khodadadi, F., López-Llorente, Á., & Fernández‐Lázaro, D. (2026) · Muscles · doi:10.3390/muscles5030047 · Cited by 2
“Publication bias was explored through funnel plot inspection and Egger’s and Begg’s statistical tests [38,39].”
He, S., Yang, Y., Meng, L., Chen, G., Huang, Y., Shen, Z. Z., Dong, R., & Zheng, S. (2022) · World Journal of Pediatric Surgery · doi:10.1136/wjps-2021-000344 · Cited by 2
“We appraised publication bias using Egger’s test and Begg’s test 22 and visual inspection of funnel plots.”
Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and hypertension risk after adjusting for publication bias
Bae, J. (2022) · Clinical Hypertension · doi:10.1186/s40885-022-00196-4 · Cited by 2
Gui, J., Zhou, H., Li, S., Chen, A., Liu, Q., Zhu, L., & Mi, Y. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-62016-z · Cited by 2
“Furthermore, we used Pearson’s chi-squared test to calculate HWE in the control group, Egger’s regression test, and Begg’s funnel plot to assess publication bias 32 .”
MethodXu, B., & Yan, Y. (2025) · Cancer Reports · doi:10.1002/cnr2.70103 · Cited by 2
Rajuri, S., Kumar, K., & Rakam, K. (2025) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.80708 · Cited by 2
Zheng, H., Wang, Z., & Zengzhen, W. (2009) · Zhongguo xunzheng yixue zazhi · Cited by 2
Fas −670A/G (rs1800682) Polymorphism and Digestive Cancer Risk in Asians: A Meta-Analysis
Yuan, H., Liu, Q.-D., Li, G.-Q., & Cong, Y. (2014) · Genetic Testing and Molecular Biomarkers · doi:10.1089/gtmb.2014.0032 · Cited by 2
“A p -value < 0.05 in Egger’s linear regression indicated the presence of potential publication bias (Hayashino et al. , 2005).”
Influential
Metadata
- Authors
- Hayashino, Y., Noguchi, Y., & Fukui, T.
- Affiliations
- Kyoto University (JP)
- Fujita Health University (JP)
- St. Luke's International Hospital (JP)
- Venue
- Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Japan Epidemiological Association
- Published
- 2005
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 235-243
- ISSN
- 0917-5040 (ISSN-L)
- 1349-9092
- PMC
- PMC7904376
- OpenAlex
- W2084494571
- Cited by
- 379
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 29 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 24 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 3.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Social Sciences › Library and Information Sciences › scientometrics and bibliometrics research
- Keywords
- publication bias, Egger's test, funnel plot, sensitivity and specificity, statistical power, discriminatory power, binary outcomes, meta-analysis
- MeSH terms
- ROC Curve, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Linear Models, Publication Bias
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