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Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis
Abstract
I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.
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“Because of the strong association between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, we also include change in GDP per capita as well (Gasiorowski 1995).”
From Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection (2020) · cites this paper as Gasiorowski 1995
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Metadata
- Authors
- Gasiorowski, M. J.
- Affiliations
- Louisiana State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gasiorowski, Mark J.
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1995-12
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 882-897
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2139649522
- Cited by
- 538
- References
- 98
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 22
- FWCI
- 20.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
- Keywords
- economic crisis, regime change, democratization, democratic breakdown, democratic transition, inflation, economic recession, Third World countries, Huntington
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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