The DOI matches its Crossref record; 98 of the 98 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis
Abstract
I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.
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“Because of the strong association between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, we also include change in GDP per capita as well (Gasiorowski 1995).”
From Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection (2020) · cites this paper as Gasiorowski 1995
Citations
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Items 501–535 of 535
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Grewal, S. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192873910.003.0007 · Cited by 1
Grewal, S. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192873910.003.0002
Egypt: Repression and Revolution
Grewal, S. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192873910.003.0006
Grewal, S. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192873910.003.0012
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Grewal, S. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192873910.003.0004
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Democratic Breakdown in Argentina, 1976
Mainwaring, S. P. (2024) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197760789.003.0009
Returning Veterans’ Attitudes Toward Democracy: Evidence From a Survey of Ukraine’s ATO Veterans
Ash, K., & Shapovalov, M. (2024) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/00220027241269980
“Popular support for democracy varies based on demographic characteristics, such as education (Inglehart and Welzel 2005) and income inequality (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006), and situational factors, such as economic crisis (Gasiorowski 1995; Przeworski et al. 2000).”
Entre a teoria e a história: a política comercial dos Estados Unidos na década de 1980
Mendonça, F. A. D. P. (2011) · Editora UNESP eBooks · doi:10.7476/9786557145265
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.002.0007
The Effects of Membership in Dictator Clubs on Regime Survival
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0004
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Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.002.0005
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Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0005
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Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0007
How Dictator Clubs Constrain Regional Challengers
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0006
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.002.0006
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0008
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.002.0004
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0002 · Cited by 1
Debre, M. J. (2025) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198903635.003.0001
Democratic Trajectories in the Third Wave: Aligning Theory and Methods
Pérez‐Liñán, A., & Mainwaring, S. P. (2025) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s0007123425000237
Propaganda during Economic Crises: Reference Point Adjustment in Economic News
Adiguzel, F. S. (2025) · Political Communication · doi:10.1080/10584609.2025.2526387
“…information management and manipulation are critical for the stability of the regimes is the economy because economic crises pose threats to the resiliency of regimes, both in democracies (Gasiorowski, 1995; Przeworski & Limongi, 1997) and non-democracies (Geddes, 1999; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995).”
Signals from the Ballot Box Elections and Elite Purges in Authoritarian RegimesPreprint
Schmid, J. W. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5428775
Lee, C.-Y. (2013) · Open Scholarship Institutional Repository (Washington University in St. Louis) · doi:10.7936/k7n58jgs
“Existing studies on the economic voting lend support to this point, showing that economic performances have significant impact on the electoral outcome or on government or leadership survival (Warwick, 1992; Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000; Gasiorowski, 1995).”
ResultPloberger, C. (2014) · University of Birmingham Institutional Research Archive (University of Birmingham)
Dandashly, A., Delcour, L., & Noutcheva, G. (2026) · Contemporary Politics · doi:10.1080/13569775.2026.2615837
“While the relationship between crises and political regimes has been studied (Gasiorowski, 1995; Linz, 1978; O’Donnell, 1973, 1978), little attention has been paid to the impact of recent economic, (geo-)political, environmental, or societal shocks on transformations in the nature of political…”
InfluentialDemocratisation after empire: Pre-independence extensions of political rights
Park, J., & Kwon, N. (2026) · The British Journal of Politics and International Relations · doi:10.1177/13691481261420604
Trade and democracy in sub-Saharan African countries: a sector-based analysis
Gbandi, T. (2026) · Democratization · doi:10.1080/13510347.2025.2534694
Barnes, L. (2026) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-050423-112502
Haddad, A. F. E. (2024) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/3279d5d7z5fe1z4caczbda2zf944b49783a0
Bartilow, H. A. (2026) · The Social Science Journal · doi:10.1080/03623319.2026.2727907
“High inflation levels have been shown to destabilize liberal democracy and facilitate the rise of authoritarian governance (E. Epstein, 1984; Gasiorowski, 1995; Kaufman, 1979).”
Crises and regime instability: autocratization and democratization pathways across political regimes
Panzano, G., & Tomini, L. (2026) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1093/jopres/xjag062
Saglam, G. (2022) · Digital Archive @ GSU · doi:10.57709/6781395
Metadata
- Authors
- Gasiorowski, M. J.
- Affiliations
- Louisiana State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gasiorowski, Mark J.
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1995-12
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 882-897
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2139649522
- Cited by
- 538
- References
- 98
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 22
- FWCI
- 20.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
- Keywords
- economic crisis, regime change, democratization, democratic breakdown, democratic transition, inflation, economic recession, Third World countries, Huntington
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