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Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis
Abstract
I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.
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“Because of the strong association between economic crisis and democratic breakdown, we also include change in GDP per capita as well (Gasiorowski 1995).”
From Parties, Civil Society, and the Deterrence of Democratic Defection (2020) · cites this paper as Gasiorowski 1995
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“See, inter alia, O’Donnell (1973), Linz and Stepan (1978), Collier (1979), Kurth (1979), Haggard and Kaufman (1995), Gasiorowski (1995), and Londregan and Poole (1990) (but also Przeworksi et al. 2000). conflict, since diversification may itself engender violent challenges to the authority of state…”
The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation
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Self-citationGlobalization and the Strengthening of Democracy in the Developing World
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The Legacy of Western Overseas Colonialism on Democratic Survival
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The Third Wave of Democratization in Latin America
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“transitions seems to confirm that recessions have preceded regime transitions (in both democratic and non-democratic directions) from the 1950s to the 1980s (Gasiorowski, 1995).”
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“Most existing studies of the effect of economic downturns on democratization have examined this relationship qualitatively (Bermeo, 2000; Geddes, 1999; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995), while those that have studied it quantitatively have relied exclusively on objective economic indicators with mixed results (Gasiorowski, 199…”
BackgroundResultSqueaky Wheels and Troop Loyalty
Johnson, J., & Thyne, C. (2018) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002716654742 · Cited by 76
“This finding is consistent with several past studies (Londregan and Poole 1990; Powell 2012; Collier and Hoeffler 2007; Gasiorowski 1995; Przeworski et al. 1996), suggesting that development can deter coup activity.13 Likewise, anocracies appear to have more tenuous civil–military relations when…”
ResultAre democratic sanctions really counterproductive?
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Bó, E. D., & Powell, R. (2008) · American Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00366.x · Cited by 88
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Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin America
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Debre, M. J. (2021) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-021-09428-y · Cited by 91
“While modernization theory argues that economic wealth can induce democratic regime transitions (Gasiorowski, 1995; Lipset, 1959), its critics posit that economic growth rather stabilizes autocratic systems (Huntington, 2006; Moore, 1966; O’Donnell, 1973) or that the relationship is dynamic and…”
BackgroundThe Contradiction of Modernization: A Conditional Model of Endogenous Democratization
Kennedy, R. (2010) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1017/s0022381610000162 · Cited by 87
Democracy, Inequality, and Inflation
Desai, R. M., Olofsgård, A., & Yousef, T. M. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000765 · Cited by 80
Regressive Socioeconomic Distribution and Democratic Survival
Reenock, C. M., Bernhard, M. H., & Sobek, D. (2007) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00469.x · Cited by 79
“…risk of breakdown.22 Control Variables Our models include a set of control variables that have been previously associated with democratic breakdown (Gasiorowski 1995; Power and Gasiorowski 1997; Przeworski and Limongi 1997; Gasiorowski and Power 1998; Przeworski et al. 2000; Bernhard, Nordstrom,…”
BackgroundMethodHard times and regime failure: autocratic responses to economic downturns
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“…legitimacy does not matter at all for the survival of autocratic regimes (Przeworski 1992, p. 107), more research into the ‘legitimacy foundations’ of autocratic regimes is necessary.6 Further research also appears useful when comparing our results with the empirical findings of Gasiorowski (1995).”
BackgroundResultThe Diverse Effects of Diversity on Democracy
Gerring, J., Hoffman, M., & Zarecki, D. (2016) · British Journal of Political Science · doi:10.1017/s000712341600003x · Cited by 79
Reading, Writing, and Regime Type: Democracy' Impact on Primary School Enrollment
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“Previous empirical findings, however, compel us to consider the possibility that democracy and its consequences are conditional on a specific set of circumstances or conditions (Remmer 1990; Huntington 1991; Gasiorowski 1995). For example, Gasiorowski (1995) finds the determinants of regime change interact with time p…”
BackgroundMajor Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988
Huth, P. K. (1998) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002798042006004 · Cited by 75
Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?Preprint
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Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
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Varieties of contemporary democratic breakdown and regression: A comparative analysis
Tomini, L., & Wagemann, C. (2017) · European Journal of Political Research · doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12244 · Cited by 75
“Several scholars in this field converge on the importance of macroeconomic performance (Gasiorowski 1995; Berg-Schlosser & Mitchell 2000, 2002; Møller et al. 2015) for the likelihood of democratic regression and breakdown, while other studies explicitly emphasise its links with unequal wealth…”
BackgroundThe Global Economic Crisis and the Politics of Non-Transitions
Pepinsky, T. B. (2012) · Government and Opposition · doi:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2011.01361.x · Cited by 69
Geddes, B. (2009) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199566020.003.0014 · Cited by 71
A dynamic theory of the transition to democracy
Zak, P. J., & Feng, Y. (2003) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/s0167-2681(03)00018-0 · Cited by 69
Terrorism and the Fate of Dictators
Aksoy, D., Carter, D. B., & Wright, J. (2015) · World Politics · doi:10.1017/s0043887115000118 · Cited by 68
Un-Therapeutic Communities: A Cross-National Analysis of Post-Disaster Political Unrest
Olson, R. S., & Drury, A. C. (1997) · International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters · doi:10.1177/028072709701500201 · Cited by 67
Alt, J. Ε., King, G., & Signorino, C. S. (2001) · Political Analysis · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004863 · Cited by 64
“Suppose we wish to explain the occurrence of some type of event.”
BackgroundMethodAre IMF lending programs good or bad for democracy?
Nelson, S. C., & Wallace, G. P. R. (2016) · The Review of International Organizations · doi:10.1007/s11558-016-9250-3 · Cited by 62
“…program 12 We chose not to use dichotomous indicators of the presence or absence of democracy (e.g., Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, and Przeworski 1996; Gasiorowski 1995) because our approach focuses on how IMF program participation is related to incremental changes in countries’ levels of democracy,…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe Joint Democracy-Dyadic Conflict Nexus: A Simultaneous Equations Model
Reuveny, R., & Li, Q. (2003) · International Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1111/1468-2478.4703002 · Cited by 58
“In addition, the effects of inflation and economic development on democracy may change over time (Gasiorowski, 1995; Li and Reuveny, 2003).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialHow to Sell a Coup: Elections as Coup Legitimation
Grewal, S., & Kureshi, Y. (2018) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002718770508 · Cited by 61
Matovski, A. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009047500 · Cited by 73
Crespo-Tenorio, A., Jensen, N. M., & Rosas, G. (2013) · Comparative Political Studies · doi:10.1177/0010414013488559 · Cited by 59
“For example, Haggard and Kaufman (1995) explore the conditions under which economic crises affect authoritarian regimes and facilitate economic and political reforms.”
BackgroundNo way out: travel restrictions and authoritarian regimes
Alemán, J. A., & Woods, D. (2014) · Migration and Development · doi:10.1080/21632324.2014.935089 · Cited by 58
“Unusually poor (negative) or unusually positive economic growth may destabilize autocracies by setting in motion a process of political liberalization (Gasiorowski, 1995; Haggard & Kaufman, 1995; Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, & Limongi, 2000, p. 111).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Gasiorowski, M. J.
- Affiliations
- Louisiana State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gasiorowski, Mark J.
- Venue
- American Political Science Review
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press (CUP)
- Published
- 1995-12
- Volume
- 89
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 882-897
- ISSN
- 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
- 1537-5943
- OpenAlex
- W2139649522
- Cited by
- 538
- References
- 98
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 22
- FWCI
- 20.52
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
- Keywords
- economic crisis, regime change, democratization, democratic breakdown, democratic transition, inflation, economic recession, Third World countries, Huntington
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