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Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

Gasiorowski, Mark J.·1995·American Political Science Review

DOI 10.2307/2082515

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Abstract

I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.

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“Other applications include the timing of policy adoption (Kerr and Newell 2003; McCammon 1998; Berry and Berry 1990), political changes (Gasiorowski 1995) and length of peace spells (Beck, Katz, and Tucker 1998; Box-Steffensmeier and Zorn 2001).”
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Authors: Gasiorowski, M. J.
Affiliations: Louisiana State University (US)
Corresponding author: Gasiorowski, Mark J.
Venue: American Political Science Review
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Published: 1995-12
Volume: 89
Issue: 4
Pages: 882-897
ISSN: 0003-0554 (ISSN-L)
1537-5943
DOI: 10.2307/2082515
OpenAlex: W2139649522
Cited by: 538
References: 98
Citations by year: 2026: 9 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 22
FWCI: 20.52
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 6485 d)
Locations: American Political Science Review (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Political Theory and Democracy
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
Keywords: economic crisis, regime change, democratization, democratic breakdown, democratic transition, inflation, economic recession, Third World countries, Huntington

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Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis

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