The DOI matches its Crossref record; 13 of the 14 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
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“The rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in the elderly population compared to young adults,91, 92 leading to greater risk for cardiovascular events.”
From Hormonal and Metabolic Changes of Aging and the Influence of Lifestyle Modifications (2021) · cites this paper as [92]
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Cites
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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030
Mathers, C. D., & Loncar, D. (2006) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442 · Cited by 11,386
“Projections based on prevalence trends have been made for diabetes in Canada and the US [35,36].”
BackgroundZhang, Q., Wang, C., Zheng, M., Li, Y., Li, J., Zhang, L., Shang, X., & Yan, C. (2014) · Cerebrovascular Diseases · doi:10.1159/000369778 · Cited by 11,609
Epidemiology of Diabetes and Diabetes-Related Complications
Deshpande, A. D., Harris-Hayes, M., & Schootman, M. (2008) · Physical Therapy · doi:10.2522/ptj.20080020 · Cited by 1,773
Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States
Narayan, K. M. V. (2003) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.290.14.1884 · Cited by 1,515
“Second, we compared our estimates of the prevalence of diabetes, assuming the Markov model was at steady state, with previously published projections for 2050.(5,29) The Markov model produced a prevalence estimate of 8.”
BackgroundResultSelf-citationBoyle, J. P., Thompson, T. J., Gregg, E. W., Barker, L. E., & Williamson, D. F. (2010) · Population Health Metrics · doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-29 · Cited by 1,309
Metadata
- Authors
- Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- RTI International (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2001-11-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1936-1940
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2060151575
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups
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