Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden
Open accessAbstract
I n an earlier study, we had forecasted 39 million with diagnosed diabetes in 2050 in the U.S. (1,2).However, since then, national diabetes incidence increased (3) and the relative risk of death among people with diabetes declined (4,5).These changes will impact future forecasts.Incorporating these changes, we now project 48.3 million people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. in 2050.We also present age-, sex-, and race/ethnicityspecific forecasts, with Bayesian CIs, of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes through 2050. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We used a discretetime (1-year intervals), incidence-based Markov model with three states (no diagnosed diabetes, diagnosed diabetes, and death) (1).In each cycle of the model, projections are developed for 808 population subgroups defined by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.We estimated the age-, sex-, and race/ ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence of diabetes from the U.S. National Health Interview Survey (6 -9) and modeled data for 1984 -2004 to improve the precision of 2004 estimates.Models were fit using Bayesian methods with improper flat priors applied to logistic regression.We assessed adequacy of model fit using posterior predictive P values (10).Estimated prevalence of diagnosed diabetes for 2000 and 2004 wereFrom the Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
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Up to 40% of diabetic individuals may experience peripheral neuropathy, and 60% of lower extremity amputations in Americans are related to diabetes.
“Up to 40% of diabetic individuals may experience peripheral neuropathy, and 60% of lower extremity amputations in Americans are related to diabetes ( 166 , 199 , 216 ).”
From Exercise and Type 2 Diabetes (2010) · cites this paper as [199]
The paper’s projections section discusses future U.S. diabetes prevalence, not complication rates. Searches of our copy for peripheral neuropathy and for diabetes-related lower-extremity amputations found no passage supporting either the 40% or 60% figure. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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- Authors
- Narayan, K. M. V., Boyle, J. P., Geiss, L. S., Saaddine, J. B., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2006-09-01
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 2114-2116
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2107956878
- Cited by
- 602
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 18 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 41 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 57
- FWCI
- 24.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- diabetes incidence, diabetes prevalence projections, diagnosed diabetes, racial and ethnic disparities, Markov model, Bayesian forecasting, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Diabetes Mellitus, Forecasting, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Rate, Health Care Costs, Cost of Illness
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