Wildfire Ignitions: A Review of the Science and Recommendations for Empirical Modeling
Abstract
Deriving from original work under the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy completed in 2011, this report summarizes the state of knowledge regarding the underlying causes and the role of wildfire prevention efforts on all major categories of wildfires, including findings from research that have sought to model wildfire occurrences over fine and broad spatial and temporal scales. The report also describes a conceptual model of wildfire ignitions, which is designed to provide a modeling framework for analysts who seek to better understand wildfire ignition processes or develop statistical models that can predict wildfire occurrences across any spatial or temporal scale.
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Economic models have also been developed to express the interactions between land users (agents) and fire, treating the most likely actions of each agent as a function of the costs and benefits to that agent in a range of environmental and socioeconomic circumstances, while recognizing that fire can represent a cost to one agent while synchronously providing economic benefits to another.
“Economic models have also been developed to express the interactions between land users (agents) and fire, treating the most likely actions of each agent as a function of the costs and benefits to that agent in a range of environmental and socioeconomic circumstances, while recognizing that fire can represent a cost to one agent while synchronously providing economic benefits to another (Ford et”
From Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change (2022) · cites this paper as Prestemon et al., 2013
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Gwynne, S., Kuligowski, E. D., & McGee, T. K. (2026) · The Society of fire protection engineers series · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-59212-6_99
Event‐Level Attribution of Wildfire Ignition Cause: A Machine‐Learning Approach
Qiu, K., Yu, Y., Su, H., Tang, Y., Wang, S., Meng, X., Song, Q., & Guo, W. (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2026gl124075
- Authors
- Prestemon, J. P., Hawbaker, T. J., Bowden, M., Carpenter, J., Brooks, M. T., Abt, K. L., Sutphen, R., & Scranton, S.
- Published
- 2013
- OpenAlex
- W2409709570
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 4
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Keywords
- wildfire ignition, wildfire causes, forest fire prevention, spatial and temporal scales
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