Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020
Open accessAbstract
As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.
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Bogoch, I. I., Watts, A., Thomas-Bachli, A. L., Huber, C., Kraemer, M. U. G., & Khan, K. (2020) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa008 · Cited by 899 · see citing works
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Xia, W., Shao, J., Guo, Y., Peng, X., Li, Z., & Hu, D. (2020) · Pediatric Pulmonology · doi:10.1002/ppul.24718 · Cited by 1,057 · see citing works
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Sachs, J. D., Karim, S. S. A., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Colombo, F., Barron, G. C., Espinosa, M. F., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., et al. (2022) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01585-9 · Cited by 842 · see citing works
Pepe, E., Bajardi, P., Gauvin, L., Privitera, F., Lake, B., Cattuto, C., & Tizzoni, M. (2020) · doi:10.1101/2020.03.22.20039933 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
- Authors
- Pullano, G., Pinotti, F., Valdano, E., Boëlle, P.-Y., Poletto, C., & Colizza, V.
- Affiliations
- Inserm (FR)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d’Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France
- Venue
- Eurosurveillance
- Published
- 2020-01-30
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 4
- ISSN
- 1025-496X (ISSN-L)
- 1560-7917
- PMC
- PMC7001240
- OpenAlex
- W3003773899
- Cited by
- 120
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 21 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 52
- FWCI
- 4.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Locations
- Eurosurveillance (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR‐19, ANR-19-CE46-0008)
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Travel-related health issues
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Keywords
- novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, importation risk, air travel, travel restrictions, international travel, Europe, China
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, China, Disease Outbreaks, Europe, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral, Public Policy, Coronavirus Infections, Risk Assessment, Air Travel
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