Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control
Open accessAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for control measures that reduce the epidemic peak (“flattening the curve”). Here we derive the optimal time-limited intervention for reducing peak epidemic prevalence in the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We show that alternative, more practical interventions can perform nearly as well as the provably optimal strategy. However, none of these strategies are robust to implementation errors: mistiming the start of the intervention by even a single week can be enormously costly, for realistic epidemic parameters. Sustained control measures, though less efficient than optimal and near-optimal time-limited interventions, can be used in combination with time-limited strategies to mitigate the catastrophic risks of mistiming.
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Although optimal mitigation minimizes infections and achieves herd immunity in a single-peaked epidemic, multiple other strategies can also minimize infections over a longer term.
“Furthermore, although “optimal” mitigation is the strategy that will minimize infections and achieve herd immunity in a single-peaked epidemic, there are multiple other strategies that can also minimize infections over a longer term (17, 18).”
From The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries (2020) · cites this paper as [17]
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- Authors
- Morris, D. H., Rossine, F. W., Plotkin, J. B., & Levin, S.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rossine, Fernando W.
- Publisher
- Center for Open Science
- Published
- 2020-04-04
- OpenAlex
- W4230008521
- Cited by
- 41
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 16
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1917819)
- Microsoft
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Keywords
- epidemic control, optimal intervention, SIR model, epidemic peak, flattening the curve, time-limited intervention, intervention timing, COVID-19 pandemic
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