How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
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In the mitigation or flatten-the-curve scenario, cumulative infections are nearly the same as uncontrolled, but they are spread over a longer period, reducing pressure on hospital and health-care capacity at any time.
“The eventual (cumulative) number of cases of infection during the epidemic is nearly the same as in the uncontrolled epidemic, but the infections are spread out over a longer time, and therefore put less pressure on the capacity of hospital and health-care systems at any given time.”
From The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic (2022) · cites this paper as [24]
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- Authors
- Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D., & Hollingsworth, T. D.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Anderson, Roy M
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-03
- Volume
- 395
- Issue
- 10228
- Pages
- 931-934
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC7158572
- OpenAlex
- W3009155494
- Cited by
- 3,648
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 179 · 2023: 336 · 2022: 566 · 2021: 1042 · 2020: 1374 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 131.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Rivm Repository (Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
- Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Medical Research Council (MR/R015600/1, MC_PC_19012)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, transmission chains, mortality, economic impact, public health policy, epidemic course
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Mortality, Pneumonia, Viral, Quarantine, Contact Tracing, Coronavirus Infections, Basic Reproduction Number
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