Human papillomavirus vaccination at a time of changing sexual behavior
Open accessAbstract
Human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence varies widely worldwide. We used a transmission model to show links between age-specific sexual patterns and HPV vaccination effectiveness. We considered rural India and the United States as examples of 2 heterosexual populations with traditional age-specific sexual behavior and gender-similar age-specific sexual behavior, respectively. We simulated these populations by using age-specific rates of sexual activity and age differences between sexual partners and found that transitions from traditional to gender-similar sexual behavior in women <35 years of age can result in increased (2.6-fold in our study) HPV16 prevalence. Our model shows that reductions in HPV16 prevalence are larger if vaccination occurs in populations before transitions in sexual behavior and that increased risk for HPV infection attributable to transition is preventable by early vaccination. Our study highlights the importance of using time-limited opportunities to introduce HPV vaccination in traditional populations before changes in age-specific sexual patterns occur.
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The study's projections are for more than 100 years, a period over which substantial demographic and behavioural changes and technological development are anticipated that can have an impact on cervical cancer incidence.
“First, our projections are for more than 100 years, a period over which substantial demographic and behavioural changes and technological development are anticipated that can have an impact on cervical cancer incidence.43, 49”
From Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries (2020) · cites this paper as [49]
The Results (page unavailable) project that changing sexual behavior can increase HPV16 prevalence, supporting the concern that behavior may affect long-term projections. The paper does not project cervical cancer incidence over more than 100 years or address anticipated demographic changes and technological development. In the citing sentence, “our projections” refers to the citing authors’ work, not this source’s projections. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn countries mainly in Asia, age-adjusted HPV infection and cervical cancer rates might be increasing, and thus time to elimination might be slightly longer than predicted.
“In these countries (mainly in Asia), age-adjusted HPV infection and cervical cancer rates might be increasing,49 and thus time to elimination might be slightly longer than predicted.”
From Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries (2020) · cites this paper as [49]
The Results model an increase in HPV16 prevalence from 3% to 8% as sexual behavior changes, using rural India as an example of a traditional population. The cited paper does not establish increasing age-adjusted HPV infection rates across mainly Asian countries or increasing cervical cancer rates. The sentence’s prediction about time to elimination follows the citation and is not treated as attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.83)
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- Authors
- Baussano, I., Lazzarato, F., Brisson, M., & Franceschi, S.
- Affiliations
- Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro” (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Baussano, Iacopo
- Venue
- Emerging Infectious Diseases
- Published
- 2016-01
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 18-23
- ISSN
- 1080-6040 (ISSN-L)
- 1080-6059
- PMC
- PMC4696692
- OpenAlex
- W2199050046
- Cited by
- 24
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 2 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 3
- FWCI
- 2.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Emerging infectious diseases (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1053353)
- Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer
- Imperial College London
- FP7 Health (603019)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Cervical Cancer and HPV Research
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Microbiology › Reproductive tract infections research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- HPV vaccination, sexual behavior change, transmission model, vaccination effectiveness, rural India, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Female, Humans, Immunization, India, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Rural Population, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Partners, Vaccination, Prevalence, Papillomaviridae, Papillomavirus Infections, Papillomavirus Vaccines, Young Adult
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