Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic
Open accessAbstract
We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity against the internal and external health risks that come with social interactions during a pandemic.We calibrate the model to external targets and then compare its predictions with daily data on social activity, fatalities, and the estimated effective reproduction number R(t) from the COVID-19 pandemic in March-June 2020.While the laissez-faire equilibrium is consistent with much of the decline in social activity that we observed in US data, optimal policy further imposes immediate and highly persistent social distancing.Notably, neither equilibrium nor optimal social distancing is extremely restrictive, in the sense that the effective reproduction number never falls far below 1.The expected cost of COVID-19 in the US is substantial, $12,700 in the laissez-faire equilibrium and $8,100 per person under an optimal policy.Optimal policy generates this large welfare gain by shifting the composition of costs from fatalities to persistent social distancing.
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Social distancing can be related to increased stress and isolation.
“Although a protective measure against the spread of COVID-19, social distancing can be related to increased stress and isolation (Farboodi et al., 2020; Hoffart et al., 2020).”
From Evaluating Experiential Avoidance in terms of COVID-19 Fear and Pandemic Emotional Distress Symptoms Among Latinx Adults (2022) · cites this paper as Farboodi et al., 2020
The Introduction reports that social distancing reduced social activity, including activities such as meeting friends, which supports the reduced-contact aspect of isolation. The paper models the costs of reduced social activity in §5.5, but our copy does not link distancing to increased stress or assess psychological isolation. (LLM, conf=0.79)
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Bisin, A., & Moro, A. (2020) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2021.103368 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing COVID-19 Risks
Hong, H. G., Wang, N., & Yang, J. (2020) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhaa132 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies
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The Cost of Staying Open: Voluntary Social Distancing and Lockdowns in the USPreprint
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Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life
Garriga, C., Manuelli, R. E., & Sanghi, S. (2020) · doi:10.20955/wp.2020.046 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Fujii, D., & Nakata, T. (2021) · Japanese Economic Review · doi:10.1007/s42973-021-00098-4 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
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Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity
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Virus dynamics with behavioral responses
Dasaratha, K. (2023) · Journal of Economic Theory · doi:10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Infection Is the Cycle: Unemployment, Output and Economic Policies in the COVID-19 Pandemic
Góes, M. C. B., & Gallo, E. (2021) · Review of Political Economy · doi:10.1080/09538259.2020.1861817 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S. T., & Trabandt, M. (2021) · IMF Economic Review · doi:10.1057/s41308-021-00147-3 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Optimal Timing of Interventions during an Epidemic
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Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
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The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan
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Glover, A., Heathcote, J., & Krueger, D. (2022) · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104306 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
R ≪ 1 as an Economic Constraint: Can We 'Expand the Frontier' in the Fight Against Covid-19?Preprint
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COVID-19 and Stigma: Evolution of Self-restraint Behavior
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- Authors
- Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- ORCID
- Farboodi, Maryam
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2020-04
- OpenAlex
- W3020418618
- Cited by
- 270
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2025: 5 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 102 · 2020: 103
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Keywords
- social distancing, COVID-19 pandemic, social activity, effective reproduction number, optimal policy, fatality, social interaction
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