Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Through the Salish Sea
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Effects and impacts of the Northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016 on the inner coastal estuarine waters of the Salish Sea were examined using a combination of monitoring data and an established three-dimensional hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the region. The anomalous high temperatures reached the U.S. Pacific Northwest continental shelf toward the end of 2014 and primarily entered the Salish Sea waters through an existing strong estuarine exchange. Elevated temperatures up to + 2.3°C were observed at the monitoring stations throughout 2015 and 2016 relative to 2013 before dissipating in 2017. The hydrodynamic and biogeochemical responses to this circulating high-temperature event were examined using the Salish Sea Model over a 5-year window from 2013 to 2017. Responses of conventional water-quality indicator variables, such as temperature and salinity, nutrients and phytoplankton, zooplankton, dissolved oxygen, and pH, were evaluated relative to a baseline without the marine heatwave forcing. The simulation results relative to 2014 show an increase in biological activity (+14%, and 6% Δ phytoplankton biomass, respectively) during the peak heatwave year 2015 and 2016 propagating toward higher zooplankton biomass (+14%, +18% Δ mesozooplankton biomass). However, sensitivity tests show that this increase was a direct result of higher freshwater and associated nutrient loads accompanied by stronger estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean rather than warming due to the heatwave. Strong vertical circulation and mixing provided mitigation with only ≈+0.6°C domain-wide annual average temperature increase within Salish Sea, and served as a physical buffer to keep waters cooler relative to the continental shelf during the marine heatwave.
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The start of the Pacific Coast Feeding Group abundance decline preceded the current eastern breeding stock episodic mortality event and may show the Pacific Coast Feeding Group response to the 2014-2016 marine heatwave.
“The start of this decline in PCFG abundance preceded the current EME of EBS gray whales and may show the PCFG response to the 2014-2016 marine heatwave (Peterson et al., 2017;Khangaonkar et al., 2021;Maniscalco, 2023).”
From Update on the status of gray whales since the 2020 Implementation Review (2024) · cites this paper as Khangaonkar et al., 2021
The Introduction describes the 2014–2016 marine heatwave and reports effects on parts of the food web. It does not discuss Pacific Coast Feeding Group abundance, eastern breeding stock gray-whale mortality, or the timing of a whale decline relative to that mortality event. Its ecological findings therefore do not establish the proposed whale response. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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- Authors
- Khangaonkar, T., Nugraha, A., Yun, S. K., Premathilake, L., Keister, J. E., & Bos, J.
- Affiliations
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- University of Washington Tacoma (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Washington State Department of Ecology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Khangaonkar, Tarang
- Venue
- Frontiers in Marine Science
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2021-12-07
- Volume
- 8
- ISSN
- 2296-7745 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4200020759
- Cited by
- 44
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 3
- FWCI
- 4.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Frontiers in Marine Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Western CEDAR (Western Washington University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Washington State University
- University of Washington
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Keywords
- marine heatwaves, Salish Sea, estuarine exchange, phytoplankton biomass, zooplankton biomass, nutrient loading, freshwater discharge, vertical mixing, dissolved oxygen, pH, water quality
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