Urban Heat Risk: Protocols for Mapping and Implications for Colombo, Sri Lanka
Open accessAbstract
Global and urban-induced local warming lead to increasing heat risk in cities. The rapid increase in urban population, weak infrastructure, poverty, as well as an ageing population, make the risk more acute in developing cities. However, heat risk is not uniformly distributed and a detailed exploration of the link between urban characteristics and local variations in heat risk is needed to aid targeted mitigation. In this paper, we demonstrate a fine-grained heat risk map using existing data combined with expert opinion in a humid tropical city (Colombo, Sri Lanka) with the objective of highlighting the relative heat risk as a function of physical and socioeconomic conditions across the city. We then simulate the effects of shading and greening on the ‘high’ heat risk areas, and greening on the ‘low’ heat risk areas, to show that a combined approach will be needed to reduce risk at ‘high’ risk areas. In ‘low’ risk areas, maintaining the green cover is crucial to heat risk reduction. The paper, thus, establishes a protocol for detailed heat risk mapping with existing data and points to the differing importance of shading and greening in different parts of the city, thus, showing where, and to what extent, mitigation actions could be beneficial.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The literature suggests that deep learning-based heat prediction, urban heat risk assessment, and GPU-accelerated computation have mostly been examined separately.
“In general, the literature suggests that deep learning-based heat prediction [27, 28], urban heat risk assessment [29], and GPU-accelerated computation [26] have mostly been examined separately.”
From GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment (2026) · cites this paper as [29]
Cites
Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415379 · Cited by 14,874 · see citing works
Local Climate Zones for Urban Temperature Studies
Stewart, I. D., & Oke, T. R. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00019.1 · Cited by 4,512 · see citing works
Weng, Q., Lu, D., & Schubring, J. (2003) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2003.11.005 · Cited by 2,624 · see citing works
Höppe, P. (1999) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s004840050118 · Cited by 2,452 · see citing works
Land surface temperature retrieval from LANDSAT TM 5
Sobrino, J. A., Jimenez-Munoz, J. C., & Paolini, L. (2004) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2004.02.003 · Cited by 2,379 · see citing works
Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., Counsell, C. W. W., Dietrich, B. S., Johnston, E. T., Louis, L. V., et al. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3322 · Cited by 1,746 · see citing works
Yuan, F., & Bauer, M. E. (2006) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.09.003 · Cited by 1,593 · see citing works
Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments
Mayer, H., & H�ppe, P. (1987) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/bf00866252 · Cited by 984 · see citing works
Jay, O., Capon, A. G., Berry, P., Broderick, C. R., de Dear, R., Havenith, G., Honda, Y., Kovats, S. R., Ma, W., Malik, A., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01209-5 · Cited by 769 · see citing works
Mapping Local Climate Zones for a Worldwide Database of the Form and Function of Cities
Bechtel, B., Alexander, P. J., Böhner, J., Ching, J. K. S., Conrad, O., Feddema, J. J., Mills, G. M., See, L., & Stewart, I. D. (2015) · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information · doi:10.3390/ijgi4010199 · Cited by 728 · see citing works
Tourism climate and thermal comfort in Sun Moon Lake, Taiwan
Lin, T., & Matzarakis, A. (2007) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-007-0122-7 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
Johansson, E., & Emmanuel, R. (2006) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-006-0047-6 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
Self-citationTomlinson, C. J., Chapman, L., Thornes, J. E., & Baker, C. (2011) · International Journal of Health Geographics · doi:10.1186/1476-072x-10-42 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
Validation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a Measure of Neighborhood Greenness
Rhew, I. C., Stoep, A. V., Kearney, A. R., Smith, N. L., & Dunbar, M. D. (2011) · Annals of Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.09.001 · Cited by 378 · see citing works
Chakraborty, T., Hsu, A., Manya, D., & Sheriff, G. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab3b99 · Cited by 362 · see citing works
LCZ Generator: A Web Application to Create Local Climate Zone Maps
Demuzere, M., Kittner, J., & Bechtel, B. (2021) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2021.637455 · Cited by 332 · see citing works
Urban shading—a design option for the tropics? A study in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Emmanuel, R., Rosenlund, H., & Johansson, E. (2007) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.1609 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
Self-citationGlobal exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots
Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclère, D., Balkovic, J., Burek, P., Ebi, K., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf45 · Cited by 295 · see citing works
Intra-urban vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York City, 1997–2006
Klein Rosenthal, J., Kinney, P. L., & Metzger, K. B. (2014) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2014.07.014 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
Generating WUDAPT Level 0 data – Current status of production and evaluation
Bechtel, B., Alexander, P. J., Beck, C., Böhner, J., Brousse, O., Ching, J. K. S., Demuzere, M., Fonte, C. C., Gál, T., Hidalgo, J., et al. (2018) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2018.10.001 · Cited by 286 · see citing works
Emmanuel, R. (2005) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2004.12.004 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
Self-citationEmmanuel, R., & Fernando, H. (2007) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00694 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Self-citationHerath, P., Halwatura, R. U., & Jayasinghe, G. Y. (2017) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2017.11.013 · Cited by 196 · see citing works
Ranagalage, M., Estoque, R. C., & Murayama, Y. (2017) · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information · doi:10.3390/ijgi6070189 · Cited by 195 · see citing works
Senanayake, I. P., Welivitiya, W. D. D. P., & Nadeeka, P. M. (2013) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2013.07.004 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Emmanuel, R., & Johansson, E. (2006) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr030189 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Self-citationA “Local Climate Zone” based approach to urban planning in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Perera, N., & Emmanuel, R. (2016) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2016.11.006 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Self-citationMallick, J., Rahman, A., & Singh, C. K. (2013) · Advances in Space Research · doi:10.1016/j.asr.2013.04.025 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Widespread Race and Class Disparities in Surface Urban Heat Extremes Across the United States
Benz, S. A., & Burney, J. A. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002016 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Liu, H., & Weng, Q. (2011) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.06.023 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Dimitrova, A., Ingole, V., Basagaña, X., Ranzani, O., Milà, C., Ballester, J., & Tonne, C. (2021) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2020.106170 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
The analytic hierarchy process and human resource allocation: Half the story
Saaty, T. L., Peniwati, K., & Shang, J. S. (2007) · Mathematical and Computer Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2007.03.010 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Weng, Q., Rajasekar, U., & Hu, X. (2011) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2011.2128874 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Wellmann, T., Schug, F., Haase, D., Dirk Pflugmacher, A., & van der Linden, S. (2020) · Landscape and Urban Planning · doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103857 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations
Hamdi, R., Kusaka, H., Doan, Q., Cai, P., He, H., Luo, G., Kuang, W., Caluwaerts, S., Duchêne, F., Schaeybroeck, B. V., et al. (2020) · Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00193-3 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Orhan, O., Ekercin, S., & Dadaşer-Çelik, F. (2014) · The Scientific World JOURNAL · doi:10.1155/2014/142939 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Lam, C. K. C., Lee, H., Yang, S.-R., & Park, S. (2021) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2021.102971 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
A systematic review of GIS-based local climate zone mapping studies
Quan, S. J., & Bansal, P. (2021) · Building and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.107791 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Systematic review and comparison of densification effects and planning motivations
Pont, M. B., Haupt, P., Berg, P., Alstäde, V., & Heyman, A. V. (2021) · Buildings and Cities · doi:10.5334/bc.125 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Quantifying Urbanization as a Risk Factor for Noncommunicable Disease
Allender, S. E., Wickramasinghe, K. K., Goldacre, M. J., Matthews, D. R., & Katulanda, P. (2011) · Journal of Urban Health · doi:10.1007/s11524-011-9586-1 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Heat wave trends in Southeast Asia during 1979–2018: The impact of humidity
Li, X. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137664 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Subasinghe, S., Estoque, R. C., & Murayama, Y. (2016) · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information · doi:10.3390/ijgi5110197 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Fonseka, H. P. U., Zhang, H., Sun, Y., Su, H., Lin, H., & Lin, Y. (2019) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs11080957 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Ranagalage, M., Estoque, R. C., Zhang, X., & Murayama, Y. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su10051367 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Mediating Sustainability and Liveability—Turning Points of Green Space Supply in European Cities
Wolff, M., & Haase, D. (2019) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2019.00061 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Sharma, R., & Joshi, P. K. (2014) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2014.05.003 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Is the urban heat island exacerbated during heatwaves in southern Australian cities?
Rogers, C. D. W., Gallant, A., & TAPPER, N. J. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2599-x · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Validation of satellite observed thermal emission with in-situ measurements over an urban surface
Rigo, G., Parlow, E., & Oesch, D. C. (2006) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.04.018 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Estimating summertime heat stress in a tropical Indian city using Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework
Kotharkar, R., Ghosh, A., & Kotharkar, V. (2021) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100784 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Beyond Threshold Approaches to Extreme Heat: Repositioning Adaptation as Everyday Practice
Oppermann, E., Strengers, Y., Maller, C. J., RICKARDS, L. A., & Brearley, M. B. (2018) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-17-0084.1 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Global predictability of temperature extremes
de Perez, E. C., van Aalst, M., Bischiniotis, K., Mason, S. J., Nissan, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E., Zsótér, E., & van den Hurk, B. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Assessment of soil moisture using landsat ETM+ temperature/vegetation index in semiarid environment
Zeng, Y., Feng, Z., & Xiang, N. (2004) · doi:10.1109/igarss.2004.1370089 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Maheng, D., Ducton, I., Lauwaet, D., Zevenbergen, C., & Pathirana, A. (2019) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos10030151 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Heat stress in Africa under high intensity climate change
Parkes, B., Buzan, J., & Huber, M. S. (2022) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-022-02295-1 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Keramitsoglou, I., Sismanidis, P., Analitis, A., Butler, T., Founda, D., Giannakopoulos, C., Giannatou, E., Karali, A., Katsouyanni, K., Kendrovski, V., et al. (2017) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2017.06.006 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Li, Z., Hu, J., Meng, R., He, G., Xu, X., Liu, T., Zeng, W., Li, X., Xiao, J., Huang, C., et al. (2021) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.111213 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Urban air temperature anomalies and their relation to soil moisture observed in the city of Hamburg
Wiesner, S., Eschenbach, A., & Ament, F. (2014) · Meteorologische Zeitschrift · doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0571 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Extreme heat vulnerability assessment in tropical region: a case study in Malaysia
Kamal, N. I. A., Ash’aari, Z. H., Abdullah, A. M., Kusin, F. M., Mohamat-Yusuff, F., Sharaai, A. H., Muharam, F. M., & Ariffin, N. A. M. (2021) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2021.1937030 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Scale-dependent response of the urban heat island to the European heatwave of 2018
Shreevastava, A., Prasanth, S., Ramamurthy, P., & Rao, P. S. C. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac25bb · Cited by 31 · see citing works
A Suitable Thermal Stress Index for the Elderly in Summer Tropical Climates
Chindapol, S., Blair, J., Osmond, P., & Prasad, D. K. (2017) · Procedia Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.04.253 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Aravena, H. I. R., Salgado, M., & Smith, P. (2010) · Revista INVI · doi:10.4067/s0718-83582010000300005 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Perera, T. A. N. T., Nayanajith, T. M. D., Jayasinghe, G. Y., & Premasiri, H. D. S. (2021) · Modeling Earth Systems and Environment · doi:10.1007/s40808-021-01091-x · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Shi, Y., Ren, C., Luo, M., Ching, J. K. S., Li, X., Bilal, M., Fang, X., & Ren, Z. (2021) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100797 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Assessment of Impact of Land Cover Changes on Urban Bioclimate: the Case of Colombo, Sri Lanka
Emmanuel, R. (2003) · Architectural Science Review · doi:10.1080/00038628.2003.9696978 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationExploration of expansion patterns and prediction of urban growth for Colombo City, Sri Lanka
Jayasinghe, P., Raghavan, V., & Yonezawa, G. (2021) · Spatial Information Research · doi:10.1007/s41324-020-00364-4 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Gawuć, L., Łobocki, L., & Strużewska, J. (2022) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101098 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 67 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Exploring the Cooling Effects of Urban Wetlands in Colombo City, Sri Lanka
Athukorala, D., Murayama, Y., Herath, N. S. K., Bandara, C. M. M., Singh, R. K., & Fernando, S. (2025) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs17111919 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Zangabadi, S. S., Shamsipour, A., Ghalehteimouri, K. J., & Hosseini, . (2024) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-024-05200-5 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Heat risk in the city of São Paulo: Interactions between SUHI and social inequality
Muñoz, L. S., Duarte, D. H. S., & Emmanuel, R. (2025) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102568 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationVARQUEZ, A. C. G., Taerakul, J., Renard, F., Alonso, L., Choi, S., Hiroki, R., Ashie, Y., Kumakura, E., Okumura, M., Hanaoka, S., et al. (2025) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2025.106344 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Luo, T., Jia, J., Qiu, Y.-W., & Zhang, Y. (2024) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f15122075 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Local Climate Zones in Tropical Urban Environments: A Review
Harimudin, J., Choy, L. K., & Ata, F. M. (2026) · Forum Geografi · doi:10.23917/forgeo.13119 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Adorno, B. V., Hoi Kay, S. O., Nesbitt, L., & Amaral, S. (2026) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2026.107460 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Heat health assessment and risk simulation prediction in eastern China: a geospatial analysis
Ming, L., & Xu, J. (2025) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1521997 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
GPU-Accelerated Deep Learning for Heatwave Prediction and Urban Heat Risk Assessment
Alihodžić, A. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2605.16435
“In general, the literature suggests that deep learning-based heat prediction [27, 28], urban heat risk assessment [29], and GPU-accelerated computation [26] have mostly been examined separately.”
Coastal Road Resilience in Nile Delta, Egypt: A Comprehensive Multihazard Risk Assessment
Sahlol, D. G., Elbeltagi, E. E., El-Badawy, S. M., Motawa, I., & Elnabwy, M. T. (2025) · Natural Hazards Review · doi:10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-2470
Spatial assessment of heat risk from deregulation of greenbelt in Seoul, South Korea
Choi, Y., Yoon, J., 전승민, Cho, Y., Min, H., Kim, Y., Kim, N., Lee, S. K., Lee, S., & Lee, S. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-55030-w
A contribution to the Microclimatic Zone classification (MCZ): A human-scale meteorological analysisPreprint
Bala, R. S., Emmanuel, R., Sadeghineko, F., Hosseinzadeh, S., & Thomson, C. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7301117
Self-citationRupasinghe, R. A. K. P., & Nawarathna, L. S. (2026) · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · doi:10.9734/ajpas/2026/v28i8937
Malik, A., Akram, N., & Zahra, F. T. (2026) · doi:10.65758/isbn.9786277813628
Hettikankanama, H. S. R., Dassanayake, S. M., Mahakalanda, I., & Silva, T. S. D. (2026) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103186
- Authors
- Emmanuel, R., Jalal, M., Ogunfuyi, S., Maharoof, N., Zala, M., Perera, N., & Ratnayake, R.
- Affiliations
- Glasgow Caledonian University (GB)
- Politecnico di Milano (IT)
- University of Moratuwa (LK)
- Corresponding author
- Emmanuel, Rohinton
- ORCID
- Venue
- Atmosphere
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2023-02-08
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 343
- ISSN
- 2073-4433 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4319786451
- Cited by
- 12
- References
- 67
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 2
- FWCI
- 1.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmosphere (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- ResearchOnline (Glasgow Caledonian University) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- ResearchOnline (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Education, Audio-visual and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA) of the EU (2017-1926)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- urban heat risk, heat risk mapping, urban heat island, shading, urban greening, heat mitigation, socioeconomic factors, urban climate, Colombo, expert opinion
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
