Overview of the e-Fuels Market, Projects, and the State of the Art of Production Facilities
Open accessAbstract
E-fuels, or synthetic fuels produced from green hydrogen and captured CO2, are a promising solution for achieving climate neutrality by replacing fossil fuels in transportation and industry. They help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and efficiently utilize renewable energy surpluses. This study aims to assess the current state and future potential of e-fuel production technologies, focusing on their scalability and market integration. A comprehensive literature review and market trend analysis, including modeling based on historical data and growth forecasts, were used to estimate market penetration. Results indicate that e-fuels could reach a 10% market share within the next 5 years, potentially reaching 30% in 20 years, particularly in aviation, maritime transport, and the steel industry. Ongoing projects expected to be completed this decade may cover about 20% of the global liquid fuel demand for transportation. However, challenges such as high costs, scalability, and recent project terminations due to funding shortages highlight the need for substantial investment, regulatory support, and innovation. Global collaboration and policy alignment are essential for the successful development and integration of e-fuels as a critical pathway to decarbonization.
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From a production cost perspective, e-hydrogen is often the most economical foundational e-fuel due to its direct production pathway, avoiding subsequent energy-intensive synthesis steps.
“From a production cost perspective, e-hydrogen is often the most economical foundational e-fuel due to its direct production pathway, avoiding subsequent energy-intensive synthesis steps [279].”
From Biofuels, E-Fuels, and Waste-Derived Fuels: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions (2025) · cites this paper as [279]
The Methods for e-Fuel Production section describes hydrogen production as the first step, followed by feed-gas conversion and refinement for other e-fuels. The cost list reproduced with Figure 9 places compressed hydrogen among the lower-cost options, but not the cheapest; the paper does not establish that e-hydrogen is often the most economical e-fuel or attribute that ranking specifically to avoided synthesis costs. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe production pathway for e-Fuels typically involves two primary initial stages: generation of hydrogen via water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity, and capture of CO2.
“The production pathway for e-Fuels typically involves two primary initial stages: the generation of hydrogen, usually through water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity, and the capture of CO 2 [279].”
From Biofuels, E-Fuels, and Waste-Derived Fuels: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions (2025) · cites this paper as [279]
The primary e-Fuels currently under consideration, including in Europe, are e-hydrogen, e-methane, e-methanol, e-ammonia, and synthetic hydrocarbons like e-diesel and e-kerosene, which are pivotal for decarbonizing sectors where direct electrification is challenging.
“The primary e-Fuels currently under consideration, including in Europe, are ehydrogen, e-methane (the primary component of e-LNG), e-methanol, e-ammonia, and synthetic hydrocarbons like e-diesel and e-kerosene, which are pivotal for decarbonizing sectors where direct electrification is challenging [18,83,279].”
From Biofuels, E-Fuels, and Waste-Derived Fuels: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions (2025) · cites this paper as [279]
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- Authors
- Dybiński, O., Szabłowski, Ł., Martsinchyk, A., Szczęśniak, A., Milewski, J., Grzebielec, A., & Shuhayeu, P.
- Affiliations
- Warsaw University of Technology (PL)
- Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 21/25 Nowowiejska Street, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
- Corresponding author
- Dybiński, Olaf
- ORCID
- Venue
- Energies
- Publisher
- MDPI AG
- Published
- 2025-01-24
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 552
- ISSN
- 1996-1073 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4406799544
- Cited by
- 27
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 12
- FWCI
- 4.84
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Energies (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Polish National Center for Research and Development within the LIDER XIV program (LIDER14/0086/2023, CPR-IDUB/55/Z01/2024)
- Warsaw University of Technology within the Excellence Initiative: Research University (IDUB) program (LIDER14/0086/2023, CPR-IDUB/55/Z01/2024)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Catalysis › Catalysts for Methane Reforming
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Keywords
- e-fuels, synthetic fuels, green hydrogen, CO2 capture, scalability, decarbonization, aviation, maritime transport, steel industry, renewable energy surplus, climate neutrality
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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