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Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative?

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Massar, Moneim, Reza, Imran, Rahman, Syed Masiur, Abdullah, Sheikh Muhammad Habib, Jamal, Arshad, Al-Ismail, Fahad Saleh·2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
DOI 10.3390/ijerph18115567PMC PMC8197118
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Abstract

The potential effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are uncertain, although numerous studies have been conducted to evaluate the impact. This paper aims to synthesize and review all the literature regarding the topic in a systematic manner to eliminate the bias and provide an overall insight, while incorporating some statistical analysis to provide an interval estimate of these studies. This paper addressed the effect of the positive and negative impacts reported in the literature in two categories of AVs: partial automation and full automation. The positive impacts represented in AVs’ possibility to reduce GHG emission can be attributed to some factors, including eco-driving, eco traffic signal, platooning, and less hunting for parking. The increase in vehicle mile travel (VMT) due to (i) modal shift to AVs by captive passengers, including elderly and disabled people and (ii) easier travel compared to other modes will contribute to raising the GHG emissions. The result shows that eco-driving and platooning have the most significant contribution to reducing GHG emissions by 35%. On the other side, easier travel and faster travel significantly contribute to the increase of GHG emissions by 41.24%. Study findings reveal that the positive emission changes may not be realized at a lower AV penetration rate, where the maximum emission reduction might take place within 60–80% of AV penetration into the network.

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  • Deployment of AVs in urban areas is estimated to result in a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

    “It is estimated that the deployment of Avs in urban areas will result in a substantial 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, representing a significant stride towards a more visionary urban future [7,8].”

    From Assessing the Role of Autonomous Vehicles in Urban Areas: A Systematic Review of Literature (2024) · cites this paper as [8]

    The paper reports that AVs can reduce emissions, but it does not support a general estimate of a 35% reduction from urban deployment. Section 5 reports a maximum CO₂ reduction of 4.08% in one congested urban-road-network study, while Section 7 cautions that increased travel could offset emissions gains. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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Authors
Massar, M., Reza, I., Rahman, S. M., Abdullah, S. M. H., Jamal, A., & Al-Ismail, F. S.
Affiliations
  • King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (SA)
  • Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BD)
  • Center for Environment & Water, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Corresponding author
Rahman, Syed Masiur
ORCID
Venue
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2021-05-23
Volume
18
Issue
11
Pages
5567
ISSN
1660-4601 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/ijerph18115567
PMC
PMC8197118
OpenAlex
W3164779823
Cited by
146
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 15 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 6
FWCI
1.62
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders
King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
Keywords
autonomous vehicles, greenhouse gas emissions, eco-driving, vehicle platooning, vehicle miles traveled, modal shift, AV penetration rate, parking search, travel behavior
MeSH terms
Greenhouse Gases, Aged, Automobile Driving, Vehicle Emissions, Humans, Travel, Greenhouse Effect

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