The educational gradient of childlessness and cohort parity progression in 14 low fertility countries

May combine two claims.

Educational gradients in fertility differ strongly between countries, whereas change over time within countries is limited.

“Educational gradients in fertility differ strongly between countries whereas change over time within countries is limited.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The average estimated progression to motherhood across all countries and cohorts (CPPR1) is 0.869.

“The figure also includes the average estimated progression to motherhood across all countries and cohorts (CPPR1=0.869)17 .”

May combine two claims.

In the data for the 14 countries, the share of women born between 1940 and 1961 that had a first, second, or third birth after age 39 is limited to 0.73 per cent, 1.27 per cent, and 2.94 per cent, respectively.

“In the data for the 14 countries considered, the share of women born between 1940 and 1961 that had a first, second, or third birth after age 39 is limited to 0.73 per cent, 1.27 per cent, and 2.94 per cent, respectively.”

May combine two claims.

In Norway, the negative educational gradient in second births disappeared in the 1950-55 cohort and turned into a positive educational gradient for the youngest birth cohort, with highly educated women having significantly higher progression to a second child than low-educated women.

“This negative educational gradient disappeared, however, in the 1950-55 cohort and eventually turned into a positive educational gradient for the youngest birth cohort, with the proportion of women progressing to a second child being significantly higher among highly educated compared to low-educated women.”

May combine two claims.

In Belgium, progression to a second birth is characterised by a positive educational gradient, with parity progression particularly high among highly educated women.

“In Belgium progression to a second birth is characterised by a positive educational gradient, with parity progression being particularly high among highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

In Georgia, depending on the cohort, the results show a negative educational gradient (cohorts 1940-1944, 1956-1961) or an inverse U-shaped pattern (1945-1955).

“Depending on the cohort considered, the results for Georgia show a negative educational gradient (cohorts 1940-1944, 1956-1961) or an inverse U-shaped pattern (1945)(1946)(1947)(1948)(1949)(1950)(1951)(1952)(1953)(1954)(1955).”

May combine two claims.

In Bulgaria, a strong negative educational gradient is found for CPPR2, which does not change significantly over subsequent birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 7.41, ∆df = 6, p = .284).

“In Bulgaria a strong negative educational gradient is found for CPPR2, which does not change significantly over subsequent birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 7.41, ∆df = 6, p = .284).”

May combine two claims.

In Estonia, over subsequent birth cohorts the CPPR1 for middle-educated women has remained similar, while progression to parenthood has increased among low- and highly educated women.

“Over subsequent birth cohorts the CPPR1 for middle-educated women has remained similar, while progression to parenthood has increased among low-and highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

In the UK, the proportion of low-educated women having a first child is higher than the average across countries and their CPPR1 has increased in recent cohorts.

“The proportion of low-educated women having a first child in the UK is higher than the average across countries and their CPPR1 has increased in recent cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

In Romania, transition to parenthood among low-educated women is more frequent in all cohorts than the average CPPR1, while CPPR1 is lower for middle- and highly educated women.

“In Romania transition to parenthood among low-educated women is more frequent in all cohorts than the average CPPR1 found across countries, while CPPR1 is lower for middle-and highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

In the UK, the lowest proportion of women having a first child is found among the highly educated, with little variation over subsequent birth cohorts.

“The lowest proportion of women having a first child is found among the highly educated: the CPPR1 for this group is lower than the average CPPR1 across countries, with little variation over subsequent birth cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

Estonia shows an inverse U-shaped gradient towards CPPR1 for the oldest cohort, but this gradient has changed significantly into a more neutral relation between education and motherhood in younger cohorts (∆-2LL = 30.93, ∆df = 18, p = .029).

“Estonia shows an inverse U-shaped gradient towards CPPR1 for the oldest cohort, but this gradient has changed significantly (∆-2LL = 30.93,∆df = 18, p = .029)into a more neutral relation between education and motherhood in younger cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

In Russia, the educational gradient of entry into parenthood is weakly negative to neutral and has not changed significantly across birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 21.46, ∆df = 18, p = .257).

“The educational gradient of entry into parenthood is weakly negative to neutral and has not changed significantly across birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 21.46,∆df = 18, p = .257).”

May combine two claims.

In the Netherlands, the CPPR1 for low-educated women is consistently higher than average, around average for middle-educated women, and particularly low for highly educated women.

“Compared to the level found across countries, the CPPR1 for low-educated women is consistently higher than average, around average for middle-educated women, and particularly low for highly educated Dutch women.”

May combine two claims.

In Bulgaria, progression to parenthood is more frequent among low- and middle-educated women compared to the average CPPR1, while being lower than average for highly educated women born before 1950.

“In Bulgaria the progression to parenthood is more frequent among low-and middle-educated women compared to the average CPPR1 found across countries, while being lower than average for highly educated women born before 1950.”

May combine two claims.

In France, low-educated women show higher than average progression to motherhood, whereas middle- and particularly highly educated women remain childless more often.

“Also in France, low-educated women show higher than average progression to motherhood compared to the average CPPR1 found across countries, whereas middleand particularly highly educated women remain childless more often.”

May combine two claims.

In Bulgaria, for highly educated women the CPPR1 has increased for women born after 1949, entailing a significant weakening of the negative educational gradient (∆-2LL = 45.82, ∆df = 18, p = .000).

“For highly educated women the CPPR1 has increased for women born after 1949, which has entailed a significant weakening of the negative educational gradient (∆-2LL = 45.82,∆df = 18, p: .000).”

May combine two claims.

In Hungary, the CPPR1 for low- and middle-educated women is consistently higher than the average found across countries, while for highly educated women it is close to the average, resulting in a negative educational gradient.

“In all cohorts the CPPR1 for low-and middle-educated women is consistently higher than the average found across countries.For highly educated women the CPPR1 is close to the average found across countries, resulting in a negative educational gradient.”

May combine two claims.

In Spain, progression to motherhood among low- and middle-educated women is higher than the CPPR1 found across countries, while childlessness is more frequent than average among highly educated women in all considered cohorts.

“For Spain, progression to motherhood among low-and middle-educated women is higher than the CPPR1 found across countries, while childlessness is more frequent than average among highly educated women in all considered cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

In the Netherlands, changes in the educational gradient across cohorts are limited and the interaction between cohort and education does not significantly improve model fit (∆-2LL = 7.32, ∆df = 6, p = .292).

“Changes in the educational gradient across cohorts are limited and the inclusion of an interaction between cohort and education does not significantly improve the model fit (∆-2LL = 7.32, ∆df = 6, p = .292).”

May combine two claims.

In Spain, the strongest drop in CPPR2 for highly educated women occurred in the 1945-49 birth cohorts, resulting in a negative educational gradient in recent birth cohorts.

“The strongest drop in CPPR2 for highly educated women occurred in the 1945-49 birth cohorts -while other educational groups did not experience such a decline -resulting in a negative educational gradient in recent birth cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

In Italy, the educational gradient of progression to a second child is neutral for women born in 1940-44 and 1956-61, whereas women born in 1945-55 show a negative educational gradient.

“The educational gradient of progression to a second child is neutral for women born in 1940-44 and 1956-61, whereas women born in 1945-55 show a negative educational gradient.”

May combine two claims.

In Romania, there is a strong negative educational gradient in CPPR2, which has not changed significantly over subsequent birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 7.92, ∆df = 6, p = .244).

“Results for Romania indicate a strong negative educational gradient in CPPR2, which has not changed significantly over subsequent birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 7.92, ∆df = 6, p = .244).”

May combine two claims.

Women who progressed to motherhood later show lower values of the random disturbance, as do women who never progressed to motherhood.

“An investigation of the random disturbance 18 showed that women who progressed to motherhood later show lower values, as do women who never progressed to motherhood.”

May combine two claims.

In Estonia, a rise in CPPR2 of similar magnitude occurred for middle- and highly educated women, though this occurred for the 1956-61 cohort.

“A rise in CPPR2 of a similar magnitude occurred also for middle-and highly educated women, though this occurred for the 1956-61 cohort.”

May combine two claims.

In Belgium, the negative educational gradient for entry into parenthood is weak, particularly in the most recent cohort, as the CPPR1 declined among low-educated women.

“From an international perspective, the negative educational gradient for entry into parenthood in Belgium is weak, particularly in the most recent cohort, as the CPPR1 declined among low-educated women (Neels and De Wachter 2010).”

• cites Neels and De Wachter 2010Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

In Australia, all educational groups have witnessed a limited decline in CPPR2 over subsequent birth cohorts, but the onset of the decline differs between educational groups.

“Although all educational groups have witnessed a limited decline in CPPR2 over subsequent birth cohorts, the onset of the decline differs between the educational groups.”

May combine two claims.

In Romania, the proportion of women having a first child has increased over subsequent cohorts, but this has not resulted in a significant change in the educational gradient (∆-2LL = 19.68, ∆df = 18, p = .351).

“Although the rise was most pronounced for middle-educated women and least pronounced for low-educated women, this has not resulted in a significant change in the educational gradient across birth cohorts (∆-2LL = 19.68,∆df = 18, p = .351).”

May combine two claims.

In Spain, a similar drop in CPPR2 for middle educated women occurred in the 1950-1955 birth cohort, entailing a U-shaped educational pattern in CPPR2.

“A similar drop in CPPR2 for middle educated women occurred in the 1950-1955 birth cohort, entailing a U-shaped educational pattern in CPPR2.”

May combine two claims.

In Australia, most cohorts show lower than average progression to motherhood among middle- and highly educated women, whereas progression for low-educated women lies around the average CPPR1.

“In Australia most cohorts show lower than average progression to motherhood among middle-and highly educated women, whereas progression for low-educated women lies around the average CPPR1 found across countries.”

May combine two claims.

In the UK, no significant relation between educational level and second birth hazards is found for any cohort, and no significant changes are found across cohorts (∆-2LL = 3.49, ∆df = 6, p = .746).

“No significant relation between educational level and second birth hazards is found for any cohort considered and no significant changes are found across cohorts (∆-2LL = 3.49, ∆df = 6, p = .746).”

May combine two claims.

The joint modelling of first, second and third birth hazards entails lower CPPR3 and also lower CPPR2 for some groups.

“The comparison of estimated and shared-frailty estimated CPPRs shows that the joint modelling of first, second and third birth hazards entails lower CPPR3 and also lower CPPR2 for some groups.”

May combine two claims.

In Estonia, differences in the onset of changes in CPPR2 have resulted in a negative gradient in the 1945-55 cohorts and a neutral gradient in the oldest and youngest cohorts.

“These differences in the onset of changes in CPPR2 have resulted in a negative gradient in the 1945-55 cohorts and a neutral gradient in the oldest and youngest cohorts.”

May combine two claims.

In Norway, there was no significant educational gradient among women born 1940-1944, but women in the 1945-1949 cohort show a significant negative educational gradient.

“Although there was no significant educational gradient among women born 1940-1944, women in the 1945-1949 cohort show a significant negative educational gradient.”

May combine two claims.

In Belgium, the positive effect of education on second births has become stronger in younger cohorts, with the odds of a second birth increasing by more than 63 per cent for highly educated women born between 1950-1961.

“This positive effect of education has become stronger in younger cohorts, with the odds of a second birth increasing by more than 63 per cent for highly educated women born between 1950-1961.”

May combine two claims.

In Russia, the educational gradient in progression to second births is negative and has been stable across cohorts (∆-2LL = 6.95, ∆df = 6, p = .325).

“The educational gradient in progression to second births is negative, however, and has been stable across cohorts (∆-2LL = 6.95, ∆df = 6, p = .325).”

May combine two claims.

In Belgium, the change resulted in a U-shaped gradient among women born after 1945, similar to the educational gradient observed in Norway and Australia.

“resulting in a U-shaped gradient among women born after 1945 similar to the educational gradient observed in Norway and Australia.”

May combine two claims.

The educational gradient in progression to second births is stable across cohorts in most countries, with only Belgium, Norway, and Spain showing significant changes over cohorts.

“whereas the educational gradient is stable across cohorts in most countries (only Belgium, Norway, and Spain show significant changes over cohorts).”

May combine two claims.

The comparison between CEE countries (displaying high and universal first births, but low second and third births, particularly for highly educated women) and Southern European countries (in which the highly educated display lower first births, but higher second and third births) illustrates the finding that birth order matters.

“The comparison between CEE countries (displaying high and universal first births, but low second and third births, particularly for highly educated women) and Southern European countries (in which the highly educated display lower first births, but higher second and third births) illustrates this finding.”

May combine two claims.

CEE countries display negative educational effects on second births (particularly in Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia) and low progression to second births for middle- and highly educated women.

“CEE countries by contrast display negative educational effects on second births (particularly in Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia) and low progression to second births for middle-and highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

The educational pattern in third births is stable across cohorts in most countries, with only Belgium, Georgia, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands showing significant differences between cohorts.

“The educational pattern is stable across cohorts in most countries (only Belgium, Georgia, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands show significant differences between cohorts).”

May combine two claims.

Most CEE countries are characterised by a negative educational gradient in progression to third births, in contrast to the neutral and U-shaped educational gradients found in other countries.

“In contrast to the neutral and U-shaped educational gradients found in other countries, most CEE countries are characterised by a negative educational gradient in progression to third births”

May combine two claims.

Compared to other CEE countries, the negative educational gradient is relatively weak in Estonia, with CPPR3 being significantly lower among highly educated women.

“Compared to other CEE countries, the negative educational gradient is relatively weak in Estonia, with CPPR3 being significantly lower among highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

In Italy, progression to third births has declined among low- and middle-educated women, whereas highly educated women have witnessed more variation.

“In Italy progression to third births has declined among low-and middle-educated women, whereas highly educated women have witnessed more variation.”

May combine two claims.

Bulgaria is characterized by low CPPR3 for middle- and highly educated women in all cohorts, resulting in an articulated negative educational gradient.

“Bulgaria is characterized by low CPPR3 for middle-and highly educated women in all cohorts, resulting in an articulated negative educational gradient”

May combine two claims.

In Russia, there is a negative educational gradient in CPPR3, in line with other CEE countries.

“Finally, in line with other CEE countries, Russia is equally characterized by a negative educational gradient in CPPR3”

May combine two claims.

CEE countries generally show negative educational gradients and particularly low progression to third births among highly educated women.

“CEE countries generally show negative educational gradients and particularly low progression to third births among highly educated women.”

May combine two claims.

The educational gradient in third births in Romania is strongly negative, with CPPR3 for middle- and highly educated women well below the average CPPR3 found across countries.

“The educational gradient in third births in Romania is strongly negative with the CPPR3 for middle-and highly educated women being well below the average CPPR3 found across countries.”

May combine two claims.

Variation of the first-birth educational gradient is limited across cohorts within most countries, with only Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy and the UK showing significant changes across cohorts.

“whereas variation of the gradient is limited across cohorts within most countries (only Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy and the UK show significant changes across cohorts).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Studies on the educational gradient of second and higher-order births have come up with mixed results.

“Studies on the educational gradient of second and higher-order births have come up with mixed results.”

May combine two claims.

The relation between education and ultimate childlessness has been increasingly addressed in recent publications, but less work has been done on the educational gradient of cohort parity progression.

“Although largely neglected until the early 2000s (Sobotka 2004) the relation between education and ultimate childlessness has been increasingly addressed in recent publications (Parr 2004;Hoem, Neyer, and Andersson 2006;Van Bavel 2006;Neyer and Hoem 2008;Bagavos 2010), but less work has been done on the educational gradient of cohort parity progression.”

• cites Sobotka 2004Not checked yet

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• cites Parr 2004Not checked yet

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• cites Hoem, Neyer, and Andersson 2006Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

For Belgium, Italy, and Norway, studies have found that the relation between higher education and fertility has become more positive, which has been associated with changes in the institutional context.

“For Belgium (Neels and De Wachter 2010), Italy (Caltabiano, Castiglioni, and Rosina 2009), and Norway (Kravdal and Rindfuss 2008) studies have found that the relation between higher education and fertility has become more positive, which has been associated with changes in the institutional context (e.g., child care provision).”

• cites Neels and De Wachter 2010Not checked yet

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• cites Caltabiano, Castiglioni, and Rosina 2009Not checked yet

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• cites Kravdal and Rindfuss 2008Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Research has found higher childlessness for highly educated women in Northern Europe, Western Europe, Southern Europe, and Australia.

“Research has found higher childlessness for highly educated women in Northern Europe (Oláh and Bernhardt 2008;Rønsen and Skrede 2010), Western Europe (De Wachter and Neels 2011;Fagnani 2002;Liefbroer and Corijn 1999), Southern Europe (Bagavos 2010), and Australia (Parr 2004).”

• cites Oláh and Bernhardt 2008Not checked yet

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• cites De Wachter and Neels 2011Not checked yet

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• cites Parr 2004Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The share of women in tertiary education has been increasing since the 1970s across Europe and in Australia.

“The share of women in tertiary education has been increasing since the 1970s across Europe and in Australia (World Bank 2012).”

• cites World Bank 2012Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The effect of female education on the transition to motherhood was found to be negative in Romania.

“although the effect of female education on the transition to motherhood was also found to be negative in Romania (Muresan and Hoem 2010).”

• cites Muresan and Hoem 2010Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The analysis uses shared frailty models to control for selective entry into parenthood when estimating the educational gradient of higher-order births.

“With respect to the educational gradient of higher-order births, we use shared frailty models to control for selective entry into parenthood.”

May combine two claims.

Several studies have drawn attention to the potential impact of unobserved characteristics on the association between education and parity progression to higher-order births, but only a few studies have attempted to control for such selectivity.

“Whereas several studies have drawn attention to the potential impact of unobserved characteristics on the association between education and parity progression to higher-order births, only a few studies have attempted to control for such selectivity (Kravdal 2001;Kreyenfeld 2002;Kravdal 2007;Jenkins 2011).”

• cites Kravdal 2001 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites Kreyenfeld 2002 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites Kravdal 2007 sourceNot checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Van Bavel (2006) finds a negative educational gradient in motherhood across Europe.

“Van Bavel (2006) finds a negative educational gradient in motherhood across Europe.”

• cites Van Bavel 2006Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Literature on CEE countries suggests a weaker association between first births and education.

“By contrast, literature on CEE countries suggests a weaker association between first births and education (Kharkova and Andreev 2000;Kreyenfeld 2004)”

• cites Kharkova and Andreev 2000Not checked yet

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• cites Kreyenfeld 2004 sourceNot checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In non-communist countries, increasing education and earning potential of women entailed rising female labour force participation.

“In non-communist countries increasing education and earning potential of women entailed rising female labour force participation (Esping-Andersen 1999;McDonald 2006)”

• cites Esping-Andersen 1999Not checked yet

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• cites McDonald 2006Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

In communist countries, female labour force participation was assumed a civic duty and was routinely encouraged by the communist party up to the collapse of the communist regimes.

“whereas in communist countries female labour force participation was assumed a civic duty and was routinely encouraged by the communist party up to the collapse of the communist regimes (Klesment and Puur 2010;Oláh and Fratczak 2004;Spéder and Kamarás 2008;Kocourková 2002;UN 2004).”

• cites Klesment and Puur 2010Not checked yet

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• cites Oláh and Fratczak 2004Not checked yet

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• cites Spéder and Kamarás 2008Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

GGS data typically underestimate cohort fertility for older cohorts, so cohorts born before 1940 are not considered in the analysis.

“Because GGS data typically underestimate cohort fertility for older cohorts, cohorts born before 1940 are not considered in the analysis.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The availability of contraceptives was higher in the Soviet Union, allowing for more freedom in family planning.

“Furthermore, the availability of contraceptives was higher, allowing for more freedom in family planning (Moskoff 1980).”

• cites Moskoff 1980Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Selective entry into parenthood may bias progression ratios to second and third births as these increasingly reflect the fertility experience of a select group of women.

“Selective entry into parenthood may bias progression ratios to second and third births as these increasingly reflect the fertility experience of a select group of women.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The socialist states were not freed from inequality and poverty risks.

“However the literature shows that the socialist states were not freed from inequality and poverty risks (Berent 1970;Ferge 2002;Kremer, Sziklai, and Tausz 2002).”

• cites Berent 1970Not checked yet

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• cites Ferge 2002Not checked yet

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• cites Kremer, Sziklai, and Tausz 2002Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

For Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Italy all results must be interpreted with caution, since the GGS underestimate cohort TFRs for all birth cohorts.

“For Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Italy all results must be interpreted with caution, since the GGS underestimate cohort TFRs for all birth cohorts.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Members of the Communist Party were favoured in the housing market and enjoyed luxury residential areas, separate hospitals, cars, shops, and many more consumer goods.

“Members of the Communist Party were also favoured in the housing market (Bodnár and Böröcz 1998) and enjoyed luxury residential areas, separate hospitals, cars, shops, and many more consumer goods (Ferge 2002).”

• cites Bodnár and Böröcz 1998Not checked yet

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• cites Ferge 2002Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Nesting person-years and spells into women acknowledges the hierarchical nature of the data (person-years are not independent), leading to correct estimation of parameter standard errors.

“An additional advantage of nesting person-years and spells into women is that the hierarchical nature of the data is acknowledged (person-years are not independent), leading to correct estimation of parameter standard errors.”

May combine two claims.

In CEE countries, wage differences were generally constrained, (near-)full employment was reached, and returns to education were low.

“Since wage differences in CEE countries were generally constrained, (near-)full employment was reached, and returns to education were low (Klesment and Puur 2010;Kertesi and Köllö 2001;Ferge 1997)”

• cites Klesment and Puur 2010Not checked yet

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• cites Kertesi and Köllö 2001Not checked yet

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• cites Ferge 1997Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The Soviet Union did not restrict abortion availability and consequently in 1989 shows the highest abortion rates in the region.

“The Soviet Unionfoot_3 did not restrict abortion availability (McIntyre 1975) and consequently in 1989 shows the highest abortion rates in the region (UNICEF 1999).”

• cites McIntyre 1975Not checked yet

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• cites UNICEF 1999Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The effect of education on fertility outcomes largely depends on the balance between the income effects and opportunity costs, which may vary substantially in terms of societal and institutional context.

“The effect of education on fertility outcomes largely depends on the balance between the income effects and opportunity costs, which may vary substantially in terms of societal and institutional context (Blossfeld and Huinink 1991;Liefbroer and Corijn 1999;Lappegård 2002;Smith and Ratcliffe 2009;Neels and De Wachter 2010;Adsera 2011).”

• cites Blossfeld and Huinink 1991Not checked yet

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• cites Liefbroer and Corijn 1999Not checked yet

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• cites Lappegård 2002Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Becker's New Home Economics claims that children are desired but costly goods and that childbearing decisions are rational actions based on costs and benefits within the household production model.

“Becker's New Home Economics (Becker 1960(Becker , 1991;;Cigno 1991) claims that children are desired but costly goods and that childbearing decisions are rational actions based on costs and benefits within the household production model.”

• cites Becker 1960Not checked yet

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• cites Becker 1991 sourceNot checked yet

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• cites Cigno 1991Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

A cohort approach to fertility allows clear conclusions on the quantum of first births, whereas in a period approach, timing effects can be misinterpreted as affecting lifetime fertility.

“A cohort approach to fertility allows us to draw clear conclusions on the quantum of first births, whereas in a period approach, timing effects can be misinterpreted as affecting lifetime fertility.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The Second Demographic Transition has associated the emergence of subreplacement fertility with rising education and ideational change, where accentuation of higher-order needs such as self-realization is associated with a retreat from long-term commitments and lower fertility intentions.

“The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) has associated the emergence of subreplacement fertility with rising education and ideational change, where accentuation of higher-order needs such as self-realization is associated with a retreat from long-term commitments and lower fertility intentions (Van de Kaa 2002;Caltabiano, Castiglioni, and Rosina 2009;Lesthaeghe 2010).”

• cites Van de Kaa 2002Not checked yet

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• cites Caltabiano, Castiglioni, and Rosina 2009Not checked yet

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• cites Lesthaeghe 2010Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

Highly educated women's prolonged enrolment in education is closely related to postponement of parenthood and may limit the time left for progression to higher-order births.

“Highly educated women's prolonged enrolment in education has been shown to be closely related to postponement of parenthood, but may also limit the time left for progression to higher-order births (Neels and De Wachter 2010;Ni Bhrolchain and Beaujouan 2012).”

• cites Neels and De Wachter 2010Not checked yet

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• cites Ni Bhrolchain and Beaujouan 2012Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

Post-materialist attitudes do not seem to be negatively correlated to ideal family sizes, and a considerable number of studies find higher fertility intentions for highly educated women.

“Contrary to these expectations, post-materialist attitudes do not seem to be negatively correlated to ideal family sizes and a considerable number of studies find higher fertility intentions for highly educated women (De Wachter and Neels 2011;Mills et al. 2008;Ruokolainen and Notkola 2002).”

• cites De Wachter and Neels 2011Not checked yet

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• cites Mills et al. 2008Not checked yet

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• cites Ruokolainen and Notkola 2002Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The positive income effect may be attenuated when higher earnings are invested in the quality of children rather than having an additional child.

“The positive income effect may be attenuated, however, when higher earnings are invested in the quality of children rather than having an additional child (Becker and Lewis 1973).”

• cites Becker and Lewis 1973Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Recent findings show unclear educational gradients in fertility intentions across Europe.

“Also, recent findings show unclear educational gradients in fertility intentions across Europe (Beaujouan et al. 2013).”

• cites Beaujouan et al. 2013Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Highly educated women in CEE countries earned considerably higher wages than low-educated women.

“Highly educated women, for instance, earned considerably higher wages than low-educated women (Oláh and Fratczak 2004).”

• cites Oláh and Fratczak 2004Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The regression-based CPPR control for differential selection in terms of time-constant unobserved characteristics.

“Finally, the regression-based CPPR control for differential selection in terms of time-constant unobserved characteristics.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Access to higher education in CEE countries was limited, with admission based on academic qualifications but also Communist Party membership.

“Access to higher education was limited (Spéder and Kamarás 2008), with admission being based on academic qualifications but also Communist Party membership (Kantorová 2004).”

• cites Spéder and Kamarás 2008Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Kantorová 2004Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The favourable labour market prospects and earnings associated with higher education may negatively affect fertility, as they increase the cost of engaging in non-market activities such as childrearing.

“On the other hand, the favourable labour market prospects and earnings associated with higher education may negatively affect fertility, as they increase the cost of engaging in non-market activities such as childrearing.”

May combine two claims.

No question regarding the date of highest attainment was included in the Australian GGS, and dates of highest educational attainment in the Norwegian GGS prior to 1971 were coded "Norway deviation: 1970 or earlier".

“In addition, no question regarding the date of highest attainment was included in the Australian GGS, and dates of highest educational attainment in the Norwegian GGS prior to 1971 were coded “Norway deviation: 1970 or earlier”.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The results from the hazard models provide additional information on the statistical significance of educational gradients in order-specific birth hazards over subsequent cohorts in each country.

“Second, the results from the hazard models provide additional information on the statistical significance of educational gradients in order-specific birth hazards over subsequent cohorts in each of the countries considered.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The income effect suggests that higher education may increase fertility, as higher earnings put highly educated (wo)men in a better position to cope with the direct costs associated with childbearing.

“On the one hand, the income effect suggests that higher education may increase fertility, as the higher earnings put highly educated (wo)men in a better position to cope with the direct costs associated with childbearing.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The difficult progression to parenthood for the highly educated may be related to the lack of social policy in Southern Europe and Australia and the reliance on part-time work in the Netherlands.

“The difficult progression to parenthood for the highly educated may be related to the lack of social policy in Southern Europe and Australia and the reliance on part-time work in the Netherlands,”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The few significant within-country changes may be due to small samples, but also suggest that the timeframe studied (cohorts 1940-1961) may be too limited to assess the impact of important changes in context on the educational gradient of fertility.

“This may be due to small samples (see Table A.1 in appendix), but also suggests that the timeframe studied in this article (cohorts 1940-1961) may be too limited to assess the impact of important changes in context on the educational gradient of fertility,”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Many contextual changes (e.g., extensions of parental leave and childcare in Europe and Australia, or the collapse of communism in CEE) occurred during the 1980s or later.

May combine two claims.

While communist regimes were successful in promoting universal parenthood, educational groups reacted differently to the pronatalist policies in their second and third birth behaviours.

“and suggest that while communist regimes were successful in promoting universal parenthood, educational groups reacted differently to the pronatalist policies in their second and third birth behaviours.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

These developments have been found to impact births.

“Since these developments have been found to impact births (e.g., Perelli-Harris 2008; Neels and Wood 2013),”

• cites Perelli-Harris 2008 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Neels and Wood 2013Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

To the extent that educational groups are unequally selected into motherhood, the unequal distribution of unobserved characteristics by educational group may affect educational differentials for second and third birth progression.

“To the extent that educational groups are unequally selected into motherhood, the unequal distribution of unobserved characteristics by educational group may affect educational differentials for second and third birth progression (Kravdal 2001).”

• cites Kravdal 2001 sourceNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Potential differences between educational groups in this context are differential access to contraceptives or abortion, and a higher capability to resist pronatalist pressures among highly educated women.

“Potential differences between educational groups in this context are differential access to contraceptives or abortion, and a higher capability to resist pronatalist pressures among highly educated women (Muresan and Hoem 2010).”

• cites Muresan and Hoem 2010Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

For France, the low progression to parenthood for the highly educated is more surprising, given the supportive policy context.

“whereas for France this result is more surprising, given the supportive policy context.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The higher progression to third births in U-shaped countries may be driven by different contextual factors for low-educated people (e.g., income protection) and highly educated groups (e.g., work-family compatibility).

“This higher progression may be driven by different contextual factors for low-educated people (e.g., income protection) and highly educated groups (e.g., work-family compatibility).”