The DOI matches its Crossref record; 34 of the 34 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 8 of the 48 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global
Open accessAbstract
El término ‘túnido tropical’ se refiere a un grupo de especies de peces escombriformes que incluye al listado o barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis), el patudo (Thunnus obesus) y el rabil (Thunnus albacares), que presentan una amplia distribución pantropical, y cuyo óptimo de temperatura superficial del agua del mar en el que habitan se sitúa en torno a los 20°C. Actualmente, dos de estas especies se encuentran entre las 7 especies con mayores volúmenes de desembarque a nivel mundial. Se prevé que en el futuro los stocks de túnidos tropicales jueguen un papel fundamental para salvaguardar la seguridad alimentaria. El objetivo de este trabajo fue presentar los principales retos de la biología pesquera en relación a la gestión de las poblaciones de túnidos tropicales en un contexto de cambio climático. Para esto se revisaron los estudios que se han abordado hasta el presente sobre el efecto tanto de las oscilaciones climáticas, como del calentamiento global en las poblaciones de túnidos tropicales.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This review synthesizes evidence that climate oscillations and global warming affect tropical tuna abundance, reproduction, recruitment, catchability, and distribution, with model projections generally showing a 2100 biomass increase in the Eastern Pacific and decreases in the Central/Western Pacific. It argues that tropical tunas are central to future food security under population growth and climate change, while highlighting major uncertainties and a strong Pacific research bias.
Key findings
- Tropical tunas—skipjack, bigeye, and yellowfin—inhabit waters with an optimal sea surface temperature around 20°C; skipjack and yellowfin are among the 7 marine species with the highest landings worldwide, and skipjack fishing mortality is considered below the level that would provide maximum sustainable yield at equilibrium.
- Climate oscillations can affect tropical tuna abundance, reproductive condition, recruitment, and catchability; El Niño can deepen the thermocline and put bigeye schools out of purse-seine reach, and an analogous North Atlantic Oscillation effect has been observed for yellowfin catches in the eastern Atlantic.
- Climate models project for the next 100 years a sea surface temperature increase of 3°C, a pH decrease of 0.3 units, oxygen concentrations below the mixed layer below 30 mmol kg−1, and decreased salinity/stratification; some models project reduced large pelagic fish and tuna biomass by the end of the century, and for 2100 generally a significant tropical tuna biomass increase in the Eastern Pacific versus a decrease in the Central and Western Pacific.
- Food-security context: the UN reported 7.3 billion people in 2015 and projects 9.7 billion by 2050; tropical tunas are considered essential for global food security, yet canned tuna uses only 32–40% of raw material, dark meat (10–13%) is used for pet food, and almost 50% remains as viscera, spines, bones, and scales; in Abidjan, faux poisson landings were estimated at 21,582 t, corresponding to half of the captured amount that could be usable.
Methods
- Review/overview of studies addressing the effect of climatic oscillations and global warming on tropical tuna populations; no new empirical data are presented.
- Bibliographic search in Scopus®, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and RFMO reports using keywords including “Tuna+Climate change projection,” “tuna modeling+projection,” and “forecasts+tuna population trends”; the paper reports finding 16 studies in Table 1, mostly focused on the Pacific (11 studies plus 2 pantropical).
- Narrative synthesis of climate-projection results, stock-assessment context, and management/food-security implications.
Limitations
- Stated: projections have important uncertainties inherent to different climate change scenarios; most studies focus on the Pacific, with a notable deficit of information for other oceans; short-term population-dynamics models validated with empirical observations are needed.
- Evident: as a review, it does not present original quantitative analysis, and its synthesis is constrained by the small number of projection studies found and their geographic concentration.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
8 of 48 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Most climate models predict for the next 100 years an expansion of areas where oxygen concentrations below the mixed layer are less than 30 mmol kg−1.
“ampliación de las áreas donde las concentraciones de oxígeno por debajo de la capa de mezcla son inferiores a 30 mmol kg -foot_0”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Nye 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Hansen & Stone 2015 source
The Introduction describes an analysis of observed impacts over 1971–2010, and ‘Selection restrictions, spatial characteristics and default period’ limits the assessed climate variables to temperature and precipitation. Searches for the 30 mmol kg−1 oxygen threshold and century-scale model projections found no passage addressing the claimed expansion of low-oxygen areas. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.77)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Climatic oscillations can affect the abundance of tropical tunas.
“estas oscilaciones pueden tener un efecto sobre la abundancia de estos recursos (Lima & Naya 2011, Kumar et al. 2014)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Most climate models predict for the next 100 years an increase in sea surface water temperature of 3°C.
“La mayoría de los modelos climáticos predicen para los próximos cien años un incremento de la temperatura superficial del agua del mar de 3ºC”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Nye 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Hansen & Stone 2015 source
The Introduction and the 'Selection restrictions, spatial characteristics and default period' section describe an assessment of observed climate impacts, using 1971–2010 as the default period. Searches for a 3°C sea-surface-temperature increase over the next 100 years found no such projection in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.75)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Most climate models predict for the next 100 years a decrease in pH of 0.3 units.
“un descenso del pH de 0,3 unidades”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Nye 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Hansen & Stone 2015 source
The ‘Selection restrictions, spatial characteristics and default period’ section says ocean acidification could not readily be examined and restricts the analysis to temperature and precipitation. A search for pH projections and a 0.3-unit decrease found no passage supporting the claimed forecast for the next 100 years. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Global warming could significantly reduce the concentration of fatty acids in tunas, which are beneficial for the consumer.
“el calentamiento global podría reducir significativamente la concentración de ácidos grasos en túnidos, los cuales son beneficiosos para el consumidor (Pethybridge et al. 2015).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Pethybridge et al. 2015 source
The Results project lower total fatty acids and EPA and DHA concentrations in albacore tuna under a 1°C rise in sea surface temperature; the Discussion identifies EPA and DHA as beneficial to human nutrition. The claim extends this prediction to tunas generally, whereas the reported projections concern albacore, with the largest declines in temperate waters. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Another part, corresponding to dark meat (10-13%), is canned or bagged as pet food.
“Otra parte, correspondiente a la carne oscura (10-13%) se envasa en latas o bolsas como alimento para mascotas (Sánchez-Zapata et al. 2011, FAO 2016a).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Sánchez-Zapata et al. 2011 source
The Introduction identifies yellowfin tuna dark muscle as a processing by-product and says some fish-processing by-products may be used in animal feed. It does not say that dark muscle accounts for 10–13% of the fish or that it is canned or bagged as pet food (searched: 10–13%, pet food, canned or bagged). (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites FAO 2016a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Findingown data
Most of these studies are focused on the Pacific Ocean (11 studies plus 2 pantropical of 16 studies described in Table 1).
“Cabe destacar que la mayoría de estos estudios están enfocados al océano Pacífico (11 estudios más 2 de ámbito pantropical de 16 estudios descritos en la Tabla 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
A search in main bibliographic engines with specified keywords found a very small number of published studies on climate model projections under different climate change scenarios for tunas.
“Tras una búsqueda en los principales motores bibliográficos (Scopus®, Web of Science, Google Scholar, además de consultar los informes desde las diferentes ORPs de túnidos), con las palabras clave: Tuna+Climate change projection, tuna modeling+projection, y forecasts+tuna population trends se ha encontrado un exiguo número de estudios publicados sobre proyecciones de modelos climáticos frente a”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Fishing mortalities of skipjack stocks are below those that would provide maximum sustainable yield at equilibrium.
“se considera que las mortalidades por pesca de los stocks de listado (Katsuwonus pelamis) se encuentran por debajo de la que proporcionarían los rendimientos máximos sostenibles (RMS) en el equilibrio.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites IOTC 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites IATTC 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites ICCAT 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
For tropical tunas, the collapse predictions for marine megafauna do not agree with stock assessment estimates of the status of the different evaluated populations.
“para el caso de los túnidos tropicales, esas conclusiones no concuerdan con las estimaciones del estado de las distintas poblaciones evaluadas (por ejemplo informes de IOTC 2016de IOTC , 2017;;IATTC 2017, ICCAT 2017).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites IOTC 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites IATTC 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites ICCAT 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Bigeye tuna catches can be affected by climatic disturbances such as El Niño events because the thermocline deepens and schools fall outside purse-seine reach.
“la IATTC (2016) reconoce que las capturas de patudo pueden ser afectadas por perturbaciones climáticas, como los eventos de El Niño, debido a que la termoclina alcanzó una mayor profundidad quedando los cardúmenes fuera del alcance de la red de cerco.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites IATTC 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Climatic oscillations can affect the reproductive condition of tropical tunas.
“condición reproductiva (Kanaji et al. 2012, Kim 2015)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Kanaji et al. 2012 source
- cites Kim 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Climatic oscillations could affect the catchability of tropical tunas.
“las oscilaciones climáticas podrían afectar a la capturabilidad de los túnidos tropicales.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites IATTC 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Tunas in general are sensitive to oxygen concentration levels.
“los túnidos en general son sensibles a los niveles de concentración de oxígeno (Deary et al. 2015, Carlice et al. 2017)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Deary et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Carlice et al. 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Climatic oscillations can affect the recruitment of tropical tunas.
“y reclutamiento (IATTC 2016)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites IATTC 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
An analogous effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation has been observed for yellowfin catches by purse seine in the Eastern Atlantic.
“Un efecto análogo de la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte ha sido observado para las capturas de rabil mediante cerco en el Atlántico Este (Rubio et al. 2016).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Rubio et al. 2016 source
- Interpretationnone given
Projections present important uncertainties inherent to different climate change scenarios.
“las proyecciones presentan importantes incertidumbres, inherentes a los diferentes escenarios de cambio climático.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The tuna industry has made significant progress in the utilization of by-products for human consumption.
“La industria del atún ha hecho un progreso significativo en la utilización de los subproductos para el consumo humano (FAO 2016a).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAO 2016a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Weng et al. (2015) indicate that to maintain food security in Pacific island countries and territories, given expected population increase, increased catches of tropical tunas will be necessary.
“Weng et al. (2015), señalan que para mantener la seguridad alimentaria en los países y territorios insulares del Pacífico, ante el incremento previsto de la población, será necesario un aumento de las capturas de túnidos tropicales.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Weng et al. 2015 source
- Premisecitation
The planet is experiencing a period of rapid global warming.
“El planeta está experimentando un período de rápido calentamiento global (Oreskes 2004).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Oreskes 2004 source
- Interpretationreasoning
These distribution changes could have implications for the distribution of these resources in the Exclusive Economic Zones of coastal countries.
“con posibles implicaciones, por ejemplo, para la distribución de esos recursos en la Zona Económica Exclusiva (ZEE) de los países ribereños.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Global warming could lead to horizontal distribution shifts of tropical tunas to other areas.
“como horizontal, desplazándose hacia otras áreas (Dell et al. 2015, Evans et al. 2015)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Dell et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Evans et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: Tropical tunas inhabit waters with an optimal sea surface temperature around 20°C.
- Premisecitation
According to Pauly et al. (1998), important changes in marine trophic structure could make populations of upper marine predators decline.
“Según Pauly et al. (1998), cambios importantes en la estructura trófica marina podrían hacer declinar las poblaciones de depredadores marinos superiores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Pauly et al. 1998 source
- Interpretationreasoning
These changes will be motivated fundamentally by changes in habitat.
“Estos cambios estarán motivados, fundamentalmente, por cambios en el hábitat.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The increase of tropical tunas in the Mediterranean, motivated by temperature increase, leads to interaction and competition with other tuna species that reproduce in the area, such as bluefin tuna or albacore.
“Por tanto, el incremento de túnidos tropicales en el Mediterráneo, motivado por el incremento de la temperatura conlleva a la interacción y competencia con las otras especies de túnidos que se reproducen en la zona como el atún rojo (Thunnus thynnus) o el atún blanco (T.alalunga).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Tropical tunas inhabit waters with an optimal sea surface temperature around 20°C.
- Premisecitation
Some studies observe a trend of increasing skipjack catches in recreational fisheries in the Western Mediterranean.
“algunos estudios observan una tendencia al aumento de las capturas de listado en pesquerías recreativas en el Mediterráneo Occidental (Saber et al. 2015).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Saber et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Global warming could lead to changes in the vertical distribution of tropical tunas in the water column.
“el calentamiento global podría conllevar cambios en la distribución de los túnidos tropicales tanto en su distribución vertical en la columna de agua (Deary et al. 2015)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Deary et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: Tropical tunas inhabit waters with an optimal sea surface temperature around 20°C.
- Premisecitation
Tuna larvae could be physiologically sensitive to ocean acidification.
“las larvas de túnidos podrían ser fisiológicamente sensibles a la acidificación de los océanos (Bromhead et al. 2015).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Bromhead et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Tropical tunas are considered an essential resource for global food security facing world population increase.
“se considera a los túnidos un recurso esencial para la seguridad alimentaria mundial frente al incremento de la población mundial (HLPE 2014, Mullon et al. 2017).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites HLPE 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Mullon et al. 2017 source
- Interpretationreasoning
In conclusion, an effect of climate change on the population dynamics of tropical tunas can be foreseen in the medium and long term.
“En conclusión, se puede prever a medio y largo plazo un efecto del cambio climático en la dinámica de poblaciones de túnidos tropicales.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In canned tuna, which includes important quantities of tropical tunas, only 32-40% of the raw material is used.
“en el atún enlatado, que incluye importantes cantidades de los túnidos tropicales aquí descritos, tan sólo se utiliza el 32-40% de la materia prima.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAO 2016a
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 10
- Probably not a substantial claim. 3
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationMost climate models predict for the next 100 years a decrease in ocean salinity, which will in turn produce stratification of water masses.
“una disminución de la salinidad de los océanos, que a su vez producirá una estratificación de las masas de agua (Nye 2010, Hansen & Stone 2015).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites Nye 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Hansen & Stone 2015 source
The Selection restrictions section says the analysis concerns atmospheric temperature, precipitation, and ocean surface temperature; the Introduction places its assessments in the past few decades, using 1971–2010. Searches for ocean salinity and stratification found no passage predicting a salinity decrease over the next 100 years or linking it to stratification. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
PremisecitationHill et al. (2016) conclude that the current rate of climate change could affect large migratory pelagic organisms, modifying their distribution areas faster than previously thought.
“Recientemente, Hill et al. (2016), concluyen que el actual ritmo en el que se está produciendo el cambio climático podría afectar a los grandes organismos pelágicos migradores, modificando sus áreas de distribución más rápido de lo que previamente se pensaba.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Hill et al. 2016 source
It may state two separate claims as one.
Findingown dataCurrently most studies are focused on the Pacific Ocean, so there is a very notable deficit of information on the potential effects of climate change in other oceans.
“en la actualidad la mayoría de estudios están centrados en el océano Pacífico, por lo que hay un déficit muy notable de información sobre los efectos potenciales del cambio climático en otros océanos.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
InterpretationreasoningThese predicted ocean changes would probably have an immediate effect on primary production, with cascading effects along the trophic chain.
“Probablemente, estos cambios tendrían un efecto inmediato sobre la producción primaria, con efectos en cascada a lo largo de la cadena trófica.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
InterpretationreasoningThese trends could be related to the increase in water temperature in the area.
“Estas tendencias podrían estar relacionadas con el aumento de la temperatura del agua en la zona.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
InterpretationcitationAssuming the effects of global warming are inevitable in the short and medium term, and foreseeing that demand for marine meat including tunas will increase by 2030 due to world population increase, added to the probably negative effect of global climate change in coming decades, could trigger a collapse of commercial tuna stocks in the long term.
“Asumiendo que son inevitables los efectos del calentamiento global a corto y medio plazo, y previendo que se incrementará la demanda del consumo de carne de especies marinas hacia el 2030, entre ellas los túnidos, debido al incremento de la población mundial, lo cual sumado al efecto, probablemente negativo que tendrá el cambio climático a nivel global, en las próximas décadas, podría desencadenar”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Mullon et al. 2017 source
- The authors state this as an assumption: The effects of global warming are inevitable in the short and medium term.
- Rests on an assumption: Demand for consumption of marine meat, including tunas, will increase by 2030 due to world population increase.
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationMediterranean waters are poco productivas, so they could not sustain large abundances of emigrant tunas in addition to existing populations.
“en el caso del Mediterráneo, se tratan de aguas poco productivas (Bas 2002), por lo que no podrían sostener grandes abundancias de túnidos emigrantes, además de las poblaciones ya existentes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Bas 2002
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisereasoningResults of the models generally indicate that by 2100 there will be a significant increase in biomass of tropical tunas in the Eastern Pacific, versus a decrease in the Central and Western Pacific.
“Los resultados de los modelos, señalan de forma general que para el año 2100 habrá un incremento significativo de la biomasa de los túnidos tropicales en el Pacífico Oriental, frente a una disminución en el Pacífico Central y Occidental.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Tabla 1
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationAccording to Hiddink et al. (2008), biodiversity affects the capacity of living systems to respond to environmental changes and helps maintain ecosystem function.
“según Hiddink et al. (2008) la biodiversidad afecta a la capacidad de los sistemas vivos para responder a los cambios en el medio ambiente, y ayuda a mantener la función del ecosistema.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hiddink et al. 2008 source
Probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationAccording to these authors, skipjack specimens caught in the Western Mediterranean would be emigrant individuals.
“Según estos autores los ejemplares de listado capturados en el Mediterráneo Occidental serían individuos emigrantes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Saber et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
It may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationIn current circumstances there are prolonged food crises, especially in Central-Eastern African countries, so in a context of population increase and climate change the problem is feared to grow.
“En las circunstancias actuales se dan crisis alimentarias prolongadas, especialmente en países de África Centro-Oriental, por lo que en un contexto de incremento poblacional y cambio climático se teme por el acrecentamiento de este problema (Naciones Unidasfoot_1 , FAO 2016b).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Naciones Unidas
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites FAO 2016b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
It may state two separate claims as one.
InterpretationreasoningAlmost another 50% includes viscera, spines, bone structures and scales, which entail greater complexity in their utilization.
“Restaría por tanto casi otro 50% en el que se incluyen vísceras, espinas, estructuras óseas y escamas, que conllevan una mayor complejidad en su aprovechamiento.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimIt may state two separate claims as one.
PremisecitationAmandè et al. (2017b) estimate the quantity of faux poisson landed in Abidjan (Ivory Coast) at 21,582 t, from bycatches of purse seine fisheries in the tropical Atlantic, corresponding to half of the captured amount that could be usable.
“Amandè et al. (2017b) estiman la cantidad de faux poisson descargada en Abidjan (Costa de Marfil) en 21.582 t, procedente de las capturas accesorias de las pesquerías de cerco del Atlántico tropical, y que corresponde a su vez a la mitad de la cantidad capturada que podría ser aprovechable.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Amandè et al. 2017b
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
The paper relies on this without support.
Tropical tunas inhabit waters with an optimal sea surface temperature around 20°C.
“Tropical tunas inhabit waters with a sea surface temperature with an optimal value around 20°C.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The effects of global warming are inevitable in the short and medium term.
“Asumiendo que son inevitables los efectos del calentamiento global a corto y medio plazo”
The paper relies on this without support.
Demand for consumption of marine meat, including tunas, will increase by 2030 due to world population increase.
“previendo que se incrementará la demanda del consumo de carne de especies marinas hacia el 2030, entre ellas los túnidos, debido al incremento de la población mundial”
Citations
Cites
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“El planeta está experimentando un período de rápido calentamiento global (Oreskes 2004).”
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Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario
Lehodey, P., Senina, I., Sibert, J., Bopp, L., Calmettes, B., Hampton, J., & Murtugudde, R. (2010) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.04.021 · Cited by 124
Muhling, B. A., Lee, S., Lamkin, J. T., & Liu, Y. (2011) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr008 · Cited by 114
Reinterpreting the State of Fisheries and their Management
Hilborn, R. W. (2007) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9100-5 · Cited by 103
Pethybridge, H. R., Parrish, C. C., Morrongiello, J., Young, J. W., Farley, J. H., Gunasekera, R. M., & Nichols, P. D. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0131598 · Cited by 74 · cited 1×
“A esto hay que añadir que el calentamiento global podría reducir significativamente la concentración de ácidos grasos en túnidos, los cuales son beneficiosos para el consumidor (Pethybridge et al. 2015).”
BackgroundHill, N. J., Tobin, A. J., Reside, A. E., Pepperell, J. G., & Bridge, T. C. L. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13129 · Cited by 74
Loukos, H., Monfray, P., Bopp, L., & Lehodey, P. (2003) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2419.2003.00241.x · Cited by 72
Robinson, L. M., Hobday, A. J., Possingham, H. P., & Richardson, A. J. (2014) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.04.007 · Cited by 70
Importance of fish biodiversity for the management of fisheries and ecosystems
Hiddink, J. G., MacKenzie, B. R., Rijnsdorp, A., Dulvy, N. K., Nielsen, E. E., Bekkevold, D., Heino, M., Lorance, P., & Ojaveer, H. (2008) · Fisheries Research · doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2007.11.025 · Cited by 59
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean
Kumar, P. S., Pillai, G. N., & Manjusha, U. (2014) · SpringerPlus · doi:10.1186/2193-1801-3-591 · Cited by 59 · cited 1×
“Algunos modelos prevén una reducción de la biomasa de los grandes peces pelágicos (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. 2015) y de túnidos en particular (Lehodey et al. 2010, 2013; Dueri et al. 2014) para finales de este siglo (Tabla 1).”
BackgroundProjected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries
Ganachaud, A. S., Gupta, A. S., Brown, J. N., Evans, K., Maes, C., Muir, L. C., & McCormack, F. S. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0631-1 · Cited by 47
Sánchez-Zapata, E., Amensour, M., Oliver, R., Fuentes-Zaragoza, E., Navarro, C., Fernández-López, J., Sendra, E., Sayas, E., & Pérez-Alvarez, J. A. (2011) · Food and Nutrition Sciences · doi:10.4236/fns.2011.21003 · Cited by 39
Mislan, K. A. S., Deutsch, C. A., Brill, R. W., Dunne, J. P. P., & Sarmiento, J. L. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13799 · Cited by 38
Muhling, B. A., Brill, R., Lamkin, J. T., Roffer, M. A., Lee, S.-K., Liu, Y., & Muller-Karger, F. (2017) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsw215 · Cited by 36
Matear, R. J., Chamberlain, M. A., Sun, C., & Feng, M. (2014) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.07.003 · Cited by 34
Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna
Mullon, C., Guillotreau, P., Galbraith, E. D., Fortilus, J., Chaboud, C., Bopp, L., Aumont, O., & Kaplan, D. (2017) · Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.08.004 · Cited by 31 · cited 2×
“…de la población mundial, lo cual sumado al efecto, probablemente negativo que tendrá el cambio climático a nivel global, en las próximas décadas, podría desencadenar un colapso de los stocks comerciales de túnidos a largo plazo, lo cual ya ha sido señalado por algunos autores (Mullon et al. 2017).”
BackgroundWoodworth‐Jefcoats, P. A., Polovina, J. J., Howell, E. A., et al. (2015) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.04.004 · Cited by 26 · cited 1×
“Algunos modelos prevén una reducción de la biomasa de los grandes peces pelágicos (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. 2015) y de túnidos en particular (Lehodey et al. 2010, 2013; Dueri et al. 2014) para finales de este siglo (Tabla 1).”
BackgroundLima, M., & Naya, D. E. (2011) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06422.x · Cited by 23
Báez, J. C., de Urbina, J. M. O., Real, R., et al. (2011) · Journal of Applied Ichthyology · doi:10.1111/j.1439-0426.2011.01799.x · Cited by 22 · cited 1×
“Por otra parte, Báez et al. (2011) concluyen que las oscilaciones atmosféricas podrían afectar a la condición física del atún blanco (Thunnus alalunga) y tener un efecto acumulado a lo largo de su ciclo biológico afectando al número de puestas que pueden realizar a lo largo de su vida, lo que…”
BackgroundSelf-citationWeng, K. C., Glazier, E., Nicol, S. J., & Hobday, A. J. (2015) · Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2014.10.025 · Cited by 17 · cited 1×
“Weng et al. (2015), señalan que para mantener la seguridad alimentaria en los países y territorios insulares del Pacífico, ante el incremento previsto de la población, será necesario un aumento de las capturas de túnidos tropicales.”
BackgroundLu, H., Yen, K.-W., Su, N., et al. (2016) · Journal of Marine Science and Technology · doi:10.6119/jmst-016-0713-1 · Cited by 16
Universidad de Málaga, M., Rubio, C. J., Macías, D., Instituto Español de Oceanografía, C. O. D. M., Camiñas, J. A., Instituto Español de Oceanografía, C. O. D. M., Fernández, I. L., Universidad de Málaga, M., Báez, J. C., & Instituto Español de Oceanografía, C. O. D. M. (2016) · Animal Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.32800/abc.2016.39.0195 · Cited by 16
Self-citationMichael, P. E., Wilcox, C., Tuck, G. N., Hobday, A. J., & Strutton, P. G. (2016) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.12.003 · Cited by 14
Univ. de Málaga, S., Báez, J. C., Macías, D., et al. (2013) · Animal Biodiversity and Conservation · doi:10.32800/abc.2013.36.0225 · Cited by 11
Self-citationFisheries: Decline of Pacific tuna populations exaggerated?
Myers, R., & Worm, B. (2005) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03582 · Cited by 11
Kanaji, Y., Tanabe, T., Watanabe, H., Oshima, T., & Okazaki, M. (2012) · Marine and Freshwater Research · doi:10.1071/mf11146 · Cited by 6
Kim, E. J., Moon, D., & Kim, S. (2015) · Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.5657/kfas.2015.0489 · Cited by 4
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Saber S, P Muñoz, J Ortiz de Urbina, MJ Gómez-Vives, P Rioja & D Macías. 2015. Analysis of catch trends of skipjack tuna Katsuwonus pelamis (Linnaeus, 1758) from the recreational fishery in the western Mediterranean Sea (2006-2014). In: Díaz del Río V, P Barcenas, LM Fernández- Salas, N López-González, D Palomino, JL Rueda, O Sánchez-Guillamón & JT Vázquez (eds). Volumen de comunicaciones VIII Simposio Margen Continental Ibérico Atlántico, pp. 517-520. Ediciones Sia Graf, Málaga.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
North Atlantic Oscillation and fisheries management during global climate change
Báez, J. C., Gimeno, L., & Real, R. (2021) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-021-09645-z · Cited by 51
Self-citationBáez, J. C., Ramos, M. L., Herrera, M., Murua, H., Cort, J. L., Déniz, S., Rojo, V., Ruiz, J., Pascual-Alayón, P. J., Muniategi, A., et al. (2020) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104094 · Cited by 32
Self-citationBáez, J. C., Czerwinski, I. A., & Ramos, M. L. (2020) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1111/fog.12496 · Cited by 22
Self-citationHumphries, N. E., Fuller, D. W., Schaefer, K. M., & SIMS, D. W. (2024) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-023-04366-2 · Cited by 14
Rubio, I., Ganzedo, U., Hobday, A. J., & Ojea, E. (2020) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12443 · Cited by 15
“Other implications of shifting species concern the distribution of tropical tunas in EEZs of the coastal countries (Báez et al., 2018).”
BackgroundRubio, I., Hobday, A. J., & Ojea, E. (2024) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2023.106001 · Cited by 3
Báez, J. C., Czerwinski, I. A., Ramos, M. L., Bellido-Millán, J. M., & Marta Coll, M. (2025) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1111/fog.12743 · Cited by 3
Self-citationOttmann, D., Reglero, P., Alemany, F., Álvarez‐Berastegui, D., Martín, M., & Fiksen, Ø. (2022) · Limnology and Oceanography Letters · doi:10.1002/lol2.10241 · Cited by 2
“Current studies show that juvenile ALB have not been observed in stomach content of other juvenile or adult scombrids (Fletcher et al. 2013; Sorell et al. 2017; Varela et al. 2019), and juvenile ALB are thought to be too few to cause density-dependent regulation (Arregui et al. 2006; Bakun 2013).”
BackgroundDomínguez‐Bustos, Á. R., Cabrera‐Castro, R., Ramos, M. L., Abaunza, P., & Báez, J. C. (2024) · Fisheries Management and Ecology · doi:10.1111/fme.12749 · Cited by 1
Self-citationEfectos del calentamiento global sobre el comportamiento del cultivo de maíz
Pacheco, A. D. J. M., & Calles, F. R. P. (2024) · Revista de Ciencias Agropecuarias ALLPA · doi:10.56124/allpa.v7i13.0069 · Cited by 1
Acevedo-Iglesias, S., Herrera, M., Ramos, M. L., et al. (2025) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106694 · Cited by 1
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Báez, J. C., Pascual Alayón, P., Ramos, M. L., & Abascal, F. J.
- Affiliations
- Universidad Autónoma de Chile (CL)
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía (ES)
- Venue
- Revista de Biología Marina y Oceanografía
- Publisher
- Universidad de Valparaiso Chile
- Published
- 2019-09-23
- Volume
- 53
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-8
- ISSN
- 0717-3326 (ISSN-L)
- 0718-1957
- OpenAlex
- W2889693038
- Semantic Scholar
- 5a1d0f9ee03d67cbbeb5af115e2f54027ffa11c0
- Cited by
- 11
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 0.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- es
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Revista de biología marina y oceanografía (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- Americanae (AECID Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Dialnet (Universidad de la Rioja) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Keywords
- tropical tuna, skipjack tuna, bigeye tuna, yellowfin tuna, global warming, climate change impacts on fisheries, food security, climate oscillations, tuna biology, tuna fisheries
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-16, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-16 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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