Projections of future habitat use by Atlantic bluefin tuna: mechanistic vs. correlative distribution models
Abstract
Climate change is likely to drive complex shifts in the distribution and ecology of marine species. Projections of future changes may vary, however, depending on the biological impact model used. In this study, we compared a correlative species distribution model and a simple mechanistic oxygen balance model for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus: ABFT) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both models gave similar results for the recent historical time period, and suggested that ABFT generally occupy favourable metabolic habitats. Projections from an earth system model showed largely temperature-induced reductions in ABFT habitat in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic by 2100. However, the oxygen balance model showed more optimistic results in parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. This was partially due to an inherent ability to extrapolate beyond conditions currently encountered by pelagic longline fishing fleets. Projections included considerable uncertainty due to the simplicity of the biological models, and the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of the analyses. Despite these limitations, our results suggest that climate change is likely to increase metabolic stress on ABFT in sub-tropical habitats, but may improve habitat suitability in subpolar habitats, with implications for spawning and migratory behaviours, and availability to fishing fleets.
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Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean
Erauskin‐Extramiana, M., Arrizabalaga, H., Hobday, A. J., Cabré, A., Ibaibarriaga, L., Arregui, I., Murua, H., & Chust, G. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14630 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Muhling, B. A., Brill, R., Lamkin, J. T., Roffer, M. A., Lee, S.-K., Liu, Y., & Muller-Karger, F.
- Affiliations
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (US)
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US)
- Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc, West Melbourne, FL 32904, USA
- Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Miami, FL 33149, USA
- College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA
- Corresponding author
- Muhling, Barbara A.
- Venue
- ICES Journal of Marine Science
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2016-12-23
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 698-716
- ISSN
- 1054-3139 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9289
- OpenAlex
- W2564080813
- Semantic Scholar
- 91c9b5803242426c288bc300d4515d82ba6613f0
- Cited by
- 36
- References
- 131
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 1.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- ICES Journal of Marine Science (publishedVersion)
- Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- C.A. Stock and V.S. Saba
- two anonymous reviewers
- NASA (NNX11AP76G S07 and NNX08AL06G, NNX14AP62A)
- NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, and NOAA NMFS/NOS
- “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)”
- National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS-IOOS-2014-2003803 in partnership between NOAA, BOEM, and NASA)
- U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
- Keywords
- Thunnus thynnus, species distribution modeling, climate change impacts, habitat suitability, metabolic stress, ocean warming, North Atlantic, pelagic longline fishery, Earth system model projections
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