Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance
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Abstract
As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O 3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O 3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O 3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O 3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O 3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O 3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O 3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O 3 within a range of ±50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8 % for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O 3 near the tropopause (∼300 hPa or ∼8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O 3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O 3 precursors (CO, NO x , and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NO x but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O 3 matches the observed O 3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O 3 .
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CO values in the WPBL (121-148 nmol mol-1) are slightly lower than those reported by Brock et al. (2011) (161 ± 8 nmol mol-1) but very similar to those reported by Kinase et al. (2025) (131 [107-150] nmol mol-1) at Poker Flat Research Range and by Whaley et al. (2023) at Utqiaġvik/Barrow (~140-150 nmol mol-1).
“CO values in the WPBL (121-148 nmol mol -1 ) are overall slightly lower than those reported by Brock et al. (2011) (161 ± 8 nmol mol -1 ) but very similar to those reported by Kinase et al. (2025) (131 [107-150] nmol mol -1 ) at the Poker Flat Research Range, 30 km north of Fairbanks, and by Whaley et al. (2023) at Utqiaġvik/Barrow (∼ 140-150 nmol mol -1 ) (surface measurements).”
From In situ vertical observations of the layered structure of air pollution in a continental high-latitude urban boundary layer during winter (2025) · cites this paper as Whaley et al. (2023)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWhaley et al. (2023) reported O3 values between 32 and 40 nmol mol-1 for Arctic stations during January and February, very similar to our observations.
“Whaley et al. (2023) reported values between 32 and 40 nmol mol -1 for Arctic stations during January and February, very similar to our observations.”
From In situ vertical observations of the layered structure of air pollution in a continental high-latitude urban boundary layer during winter (2025) · cites this paper as Whaley et al. (2023)
Section 5.1.1 (p. 8) says surface O₃ reaches a winter maximum at high-Arctic stations, and the Figure 5 caption (p. 9) describes monthly station medians. The figure itself is an image placeholder in our copy, and the text does not give January–February values of 32–40 nmol mol⁻¹, so the claimed range cannot be checked. (LLM, conf=0.73)
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Self-citationAir Composition over the Russian Arctic: 3—Trace Gases
Antokhina, O. Y., Antokhin, P. N., Arshinova, V. G., Arshinov, M., Ancellet, G. M., Belan, B. D., Belan, S. B., Davydov, D., Ivlev, G. A., Kozlov, A. V., et al. (2024) · Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics · doi:10.1134/s1024856023700057 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationFalk, S., Reißig, L., Zilker, B., Richter, A., & Sinnhuber, B. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-15653-2025 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Whaley, C. H. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2022-319-ac2
Self-citationArnold, S. R., Bozem, H., & Law, K. S. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-15-2527-8_19-1
Self-citationMcGee, E., Strong, K., Walker, K. A., Whaley, C. H., Kivi, R., Notholt, J., Cassidy, G., Beagley, S. R., Chien, R., Dobricic, S., et al. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2025jd043489
Self-citationObservational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024)
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Self-citationModelling the Arctic Boundary Layer Ozone: Springtime Ozone Depletion and Role of Aerosols
Gong, W., Beagley, S. R., & Toyota, K. (2026) · Springer proceedings in complexity · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-02971-3_4
Local wintertime Arctic air pollution
Brett, N. (2025) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/8c764862zfb52z4ccez8e0bz5ac148c244d3
Sommariva, R., Koenig, T. K., Sekiya, T., Badía, A., Kanaya, Y., Mazzeo, A., Panagi, M., Read, K., Rowlinson, M., Russo, M. R., et al. (2026) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2025.0269
Self-citation
- Authors
- Whaley, C. H., Law, K. S., Hjorth, J. L., Skov, H., Arnold, S. R., Langner, J., Pernov, J. B., Bergeron, G., Bourgeois, I., Christensen, J. H., Chien, R.-Y., Deushi, M., Dong, X., Effertz, P., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M., Fu, J. S., Gauss, M., Huey, G., Im, U., Kivi, R., Marelle, L., Onishi, T., Oshima, N., Petropavlovskikh, I., Peischl, J., Plummer, D. A., Pozzoli, L., Raut, J.-C., Ryerson, T., Skeie, R., Solberg, S., Thomas, M. A., Thompson, C., Tsigaridis, K., Tsyro, S., Turnock, S. T., von Salzen, K., & Tarasick, D. W.
- Affiliations
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US)
- Japan Meteorological Agency (JP)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute (NO)
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Joint Research Centre (IT)
- Scientific Aviation (United States) (US)
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research (NO)
- NILU (NO)
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Law, Kathy S.
- Skov, Henrik
- Bourgeois, Ilann
- Deushi, Makoto
- Dong, Xinyi
- Flanner, Mark
- Fu, Joshua S.
- Kivi, Rigel
- Oshima, Naga
- Petropavlovskikh, Irina
- Peischl, Jeff
- Raut, Jean-Christophe
- Ryerson, Tom
- Skeie, Ragnhild
- Thompson, Chelsea
- Tsigaridis, Kostas
- Tsyro, Svetlana
- Turnock, Steven T.
- ORCID
- Whaley, Cynthia H.
- Law, Kathy S.
- Hjorth, Jens Liengaard
- Skov, Henrik
- Arnold, Stephen R.
- Langner, Joakim
- Pernov, Jakob Boyd
- Bourgeois, Ilann
- Christensen, Jesper H.
- Chien, Rong-You
- Deushi, Makoto
- Dong, Xinyi
- Effertz, Peter
- Faluvegi, Gregory
- Flanner, Mark
- Fu, Joshua S.
- Huey, Greg
- Im, Ulas
- Kivi, Rigel
- Marelle, Louis
- Onishi, Tatsuo
- Oshima, Naga
- Petropavlovskikh, Irina
- Peischl, Jeff
- Plummer, David A.
- Pozzoli, Luca
- Raut, Jean-Christophe
- Ryerson, Tom
- Skeie, Ragnhild
- Solberg, Sverre
- Thomas, Manu A.
- Thompson, Chelsea
- Tsigaridis, Kostas
- Tsyro, Svetlana
- Turnock, Steven T.
- Tarasick, David W.
- Venue
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2023-01-16
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 637-661
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- 1680-7324
- OpenAlex
- W4316465429
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 138
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 2
- FWCI
- 2.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- NILU Brage (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JP18H03363, JP21H03582, JP20K04070, JP19K12312, JP18H05292)
- Naturvårdsverket (NV-03174-20)
- Nordisk Ministerråd (MST-227-00036, MFVM-2019-13476)
- Miljøstyrelsen (MST-112- 00298)
- Grand Équipement National De Calcul Intensif (A009017141)
- Energistyrelsen (2019-7975, MST-112- 00298, TAS 4005-0153)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Keywords
- tropospheric ozone, Arctic, model evaluation, ozone depletion events, bromine chemistry, halogen chemistry, ozonesondes, vertical ozone distribution, tropopause height, stratospheric ozone transport, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, peroxyacetyl nitrate, ozone precursors, model bias, Eureka
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