Cited by 1International Business and FDITerrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political ViolenceCorruption and Economic Development

Bearing the Brunt: The Effect of Terrorism on the Foreign Direct Investment in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Nations

Open access
University of Wah., Mansoor, Abdul·2022·University of Wah Journal of Social Sciences

Abstract

The current state of terrorism has posed serious challenges to macroeconomic environment stability by causing the dislodgment of foreign direct investment (FDI). This study aims to find the impact of terrorism along with other important policy variables such as FDI, Terrorism, law and order, Tariff, and Government regulation in the SAARC member nations, namely, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Utilizing a panel econometric estimation model on annual data from 1990-2019, the results of the study show a significant negative impact of terrorism and law and order situations in the SAARC countries. Whereas the magnitude of FDI is technology-driven in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan where there is a deep focus on the physical structural transformation. This empirically establishes the fact that terrorism is a serious threat to FDI and economic growth for the economies in this region. Key Words: FDI; Terrorism; Tariff, SAARC

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.56220/uwjss2022/0501/10

Cites

49 of 49 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 17 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    In the business sector of SAARC countries, reduction in terrorism activity significantly enhances FDI.

    “Similarly, reduction in the terrorism activity enhances the FDI in the country by a significant amount.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In the business sector of SAARC countries, subsidizing or reducing tariffs on imports significantly raises FDI.

    “If terrify on imports are subsidized or reduced that there would be a significant rise in the level of FDI in the country”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In the manufacturing sector of SAARC countries, tariff has a negative and significant effect on FDI.

    “Tariff -0.606 0.155 -3.896 0.002”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In the finance and business sector, law and order has a positive and statistically significant effect on FDI (coefficient 13.777, p=0.004).

    “Law and Order 13.777 4.725 2.914 0.004”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In the finance and business sector, terrorism has a negative effect on FDI (coefficient -0.320, p=0.090).

    “Terrorism -0.320 0.186 -1.716 0.090”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 21
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 15
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the manufacturing sector of SAARC countries, government regulation and law and order situation have no significant impact on FDI.

    “the table shows that the government regulation as well as law and order situation in the country has no foot prints over FDI in the region.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In the manufacturing sector of SAARC countries, reducing tariff on international trade raises FDI by 60.6% in the long run.

    “reducing the tariff on the international trade the FDI can be raise by the rate of 60.6% in the long run that is a very significant impact over a long run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    In the manufacturing sector of SAARC countries, overcoming terrorism can boost FDI by 35.9% in the long run.

    “if the government overcome the issue of terrorism in the country, it can boost up the FDI by 35.9% in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The panel cointegration test confirms a long-run association among the variables, meaning all variables are cointegrated in the long run.

    “The panel cointegration test confirms the long run association among the variables.It means that all variables are cointegrated in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the transport and communication sector of SAARC countries, law and order situation and government regulation have no impact on FDI.

    “there is no impact of law and order situations and government regulation with the improvement of FDI in the transportation and communication sectors in the country.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    FDI inflows help increase growth in host countries, especially developing nations, by decreasing unemployment, obtaining advanced technology, shrinking the saving-investment gap, boosting production, and increasing market competition.

    “FDI inflows help to increase the growth level in the host country especially if the country is a developing nation then FDI inflows help to decrease unemployment, obtain advanced technology, shrink the gap between saving and investment, boost production, and market competition (Khan, 2008).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Khan, 2008 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Terrorism in its different forms brings uncertainty among investors and leads them to make less direct investment.

    “Terrorism in its different forms brings uncertainty amongst investors and they make a less direct investment (Schneider and Frey, 1985).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Schneider and Frey, 1985 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Due to terrorism, Pakistan lost 33% of its real national income, equal to an annual 1% GDP loss per capita, and reductions in FDI and foreign worker remittances are consequences of this loss.

    “Due to terrorism, Pakistan lost 33% of its real national income, which is equal to annually 1% GDP loss per capita.Reduction in FDI and foreign worker remittances are the consequences of this loss (Mehmood, 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Mehmood, 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In an open economy, terrorist attacks affect the allocation of productive capital and increase uncertainty and risk about returns on investment, so foreign investors shift investment to countries where they feel safer about their profit.

    “In the case of an open economy, the terrorist attacks will affect the allocation of productive capital, increase uncertainty and risk about returns on investment so foreign investors shift investment across the countries where they feel safer about their profit (Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2008)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Abadie & Gardeazabal, 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    South Asia pays heavy direct and indirect costs of terrorism, including destruction of infrastructure, crops, and industrial units, deterioration of economic activities, loss of confidence, brain drain, counter-terrorism expenditure, low FDI inflows, and heavy economic and transaction costs.

    “South Asia is paying heavy costs of terrorism in the direct and indirect form of infrastructure, crops and industrial unit destruction, deterioration of economic activities, and loss of confidence in the economy thus as a result economy must face long term brain drain, expenditure on counter-terrorism, low level of FDI inflows, heavy economic and transaction costs (Kumar, 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kumar, 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In developing economies, an increase in violence in the host country induces a shift from horizontal FDI to vertical FDI.

    “In developing economies, an increase in violence in the host country induces to shift in horizontal FDI to vertical FDI (Bloomberg & Mody, 2002).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bloomberg & Mody, 2002

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The causes of terrorism in South Asia are poor law and order, income inequality, poverty, unemployment, and illiteracy.

    “The causes of terrorism in South Asia are poor law and order, income inequality, poverty, Unemployment, illiteracy rate (Zeb, et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Zeb, et al., 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    There is a significant negative correlation between FDI inflows in manufacturing, trade, and repair and construction sectors and terrorist activities in developed nations.

    “There is a significant negative correlation between FDI inflows in manufacturing, trade, and repair and construction sector s and terrorist activities in developed nations (Agrawal, 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Agrawal, 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Countries consider FDI a crucial tool for economic growth because through FDI they get skills, modern technology, income, and access to world markets.

    “Countries take much interest in FDI because they consider it as a crucial tool for economic growth because through FDI countries get a skill, space for modern technology, generate income and get access to world markets (Herzer and Nunnenkamp, 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Herzer and Nunnenkamp, 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Investors tend to invest only when they feel their investment is safe and secure.

    “Investors tend to invest only when they feel about their investment is safe and secure (Rasheed & Tahir, 2012).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rasheed & Tahir, 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Terrorism is a serious threat to FDI and economic growth for the economies in the SAARC region.

    “This empirically establishes the fact that terrorism is a serious threat to FDI and economic growth for the economies in this region.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Terrorism not only destroys the financial system but also damages physical infrastructure and investors' confidence.
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In India, a study of 510 farmers found a significant negative relationship between terrorism and level of investment for the long period, but for the short period the relationship is statistically insignificant.

    “According to a study conducted by Singh (2013) on investment data of 510 farmers in India, a significant negative relationship is found between terrorism and level of investment for the long period.But for short period this relationship is statistically insignificant.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Singh (2013)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    According to Ali (2010), in Pakistan political instability and terrorist attacks hit the manufacturing sector badly, and its share to GDP remains very low at 18.2 percent in recent years.

    “According to the findings of Ali (2010) in Pakistan political instability and terrorist attacks hit manufacturing sector badly, its share to GDP remains very low i.e. 18.2 percent in last few years.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ali (2010)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The communication sector, being urban or service-oriented, is directly targeted by a significant negative impact of terrorist events because urban sectors are usually targeted through terrorist activities.

    “The communication sector which is considered as the urban or service-oriented sector is directly targeted by a significant negative impact of terrorist events because urban sectors are usually targeted through terrorist activities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    More FDI deposited in transportation and communication sectors means greater approachability to transportation and communication services and tends to reduce mobility and time cost in various sectors.

    “more FDI deposited in transportation and communication sectors mean a greater approachability to transportation and communication services and this tends to reduce the mobility and time cost in various sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: FDI inflows depend on business-friendly parameters.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The transport sector is also an urban sector where large attacks on transport and infrastructure are observed.

    “The transport sector is also an urban sector usually large attacks on transport and infrastructure are observed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    This study's results are consistent with the study conducted by Ahmad et al. (2014).

    “This study is per the results of the study conducted by (Ahmad, et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ahmad, et al., 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    In the SAARC region, law and order situation boosts economic prosperity because it is positively linked with FDI inflow.

    “According to the empirical outcome of this study law and order situation in the region boosts the economic prosperity across the region as it is positively linked with the FDI inflow of south Asian countries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: FDI increases where there is safety to the invested amount of investors.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In the SAARC region, the manufacturing sector is the most affected sector by terrorism, with an effect of 76 percent, because it received more FDI.

    “the most affected sector is the manufacturing sector where the effect of terrorism is 76 percent, as this sector received more FDI in SAARC.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The study's results are consistent with Rasheed and Tahir (2012), Iqbal et al. (2014), and Shah and Faiz (2015), who documented a negative impact of terrorism and tariff on FDI while law and order improves FDI in the overall business, manufacturing, and transport and communication sectors.

    “Our results are consistent with the outcomes of Rasheed and Tahir (2012), Iqbal et. al. (2014), and Shah and Faiz (2015) who documented the negative impact of terrorism and tariff on the FDI in the country while the law and order situation improves the level of FDI in the overall business sector, manufacturing and transport and communication sectors of the country.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rasheed and Tahir (2012)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Iqbal et. al. (2014)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Shah and Faiz (2015)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The OLI paradigm is empirically examined by Galan and Gonzalez-Benito (2001) for Spanish MNCs.

    “This paradigm is empirically examined byGalan and Gonzalez-Benito (2001) for Spanish MNC.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Galan and Gonzalez-Benito (2001)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Transportation is another sector affected by terrorism, and large terrorist attacks on transportation and its infrastructure are usually observed in terrorist-affected countries because it is an easy target.

    “Another affected sector is the transportation and large terrorist attacks on transportation and its infrastructures are usually observed in terrorist-effected countries, as it is an easy target for terrorists.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Maximum inflow of FDI in physical infrastructure such as roads and highways reduces the cost of production in various sectors.

    “This maximum inflow of FDI in the physical infrastructure in the forms of roads and highways etc. reduces the cost of production in various sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: FDI inflows depend on business-friendly parameters.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Tariff and law and order situation have proved to be effect factors for most economic sectors.

    “Because tariff and law and order situation of the country has proved to effect factors for most of the economic sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Lowering terrorism accompanied by a better law and order situation boosts economic prosperity in the South Asian region.

    “Hence, we conclude that lowering terrorism accompanied by a better law and order situation boost economic prosperity in the South Asian region.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: FDI increases where there is safety to the invested amount of investors.
30 of 30
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Terrorism not only destroys the financial system but also damages physical infrastructure and investors' confidence.

    “Terrorism not only destroys the financial system but also damages the physical infrastructure and investors' confidence.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    South Asia is one of the regions affected by terrorism.

    “South Asia is one of the affected regions by terrorism.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The selected sectors (finance and business, manufacturing, transport and communication) are representative of FDI in SAARC countries.

    “Unlike the previous literature, this study focuses on the impact of terrorism on some selected sectors in the SAARC countries.”
    “In this way, we can get a broader view of the economy.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    FDI increases where there is safety to the invested amount of investors.

    “It is also justifiable on theoretical grounds that FDI increases where there is safety to the invested amount of the investors.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    FDI inflows depend on business-friendly parameters.

    “The inflows of FDI depend on business-friendly parameters.”
5 of 5

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Transport-sector law and order is both significant and without impact

    Major

    The transport-sector discussion calls the law-and-order impact significant, then says it has no impact. Table 10 also reports a nonsignificant p-value of 0.553.

  • Pakistan's five-year FDI total does not match the table

    Minor

    For 2016-2020, the latest five years in Table 2, Pakistan's listed inflows sum to 17.6183, not 24.96.

    Reported 24.96 · recomputed 17.6183

  • Transport-sector tariff t-statistic does not match its inputs

    Minor

    Dividing the reported tariff coefficient by its standard error gives approximately −9.099, rather than the reported −9.907. The gap exceeds what rounding the displayed inputs could explain.

    Reported -9.907 · recomputed -9.099206

  • Manufacturing law-and-order result is called significant despite its p-value

    Minor

    The manufacturing discussion concludes that law and order has a significant impact, but its Table 9 p-value is 0.224, above the stated 5% threshold. The same discussion later says law and order has no effect.

4 of 4

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

7 of the 56 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [2]2. Agrawal S. (2011). The Impact of Terrorism on Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors are More Vulnerable? Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont. pp. 05-06
  2. [14]14. Farooq, M., & Khan, Z. (2014). Impact of terrorism on foreign direct investment and key indicators of development in Pakistan. City University Research Journal, 4(1), 53-68.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
University of Wah., & Mansoor, A.
Affiliations
University of Wah (PK)
Corresponding author
Mansoor, Abdul
Venue
University of Wah Journal of Social Sciences
Published
2022-06-08
Volume
5
Issue
1
Pages
167-186
ISSN
  • 2521-8905 (ISSN-L)
  • 2523-9449
OpenAlex
W4281715317
Cited by
1
References
56
Citations by year
2023: 1
FWCI
0.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
University of Wah Journal of Social Sciences (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › International Business and FDI
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Corruption and Economic Development
Keywords
terrorism, foreign direct investment, SAARC, law and order, tariffs, government regulation, economic growth, South Asia, macroeconomic stability

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