The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The Risk of Determining Risk with Multivariable Models
Abstract
PURPOSE: To review the principles of multivariable analysis and to examine the application of multivariable statistical methods in general medical literature. DATA SOURCES: A computer-assisted search of articles in The Lancet and The New England Journal of Medicine identified 451 publications containing multivariable methods from 1985 through 1989. A random sample of 60 articles that used the two most common methods--logistic regression or proportional hazards analysis--was selected for more intensive review. DATA EXTRACTION: During review of the 60 randomly selected articles, the focus was on generally accepted methodologic guidelines that can prevent problems affecting the accuracy and interpretation of multivariable analytic results. RESULTS: From 1985 to 1989, the relative frequency of multivariable statistical methods increased annually from about 10% to 18% among all articles in the two journals. In 44 (73%) of 60 articles using logistic or proportional hazards regression, risk estimates were quantified for individual variables ("risk factors"). Violations and omissions of methodologic guidelines in these 44 articles included overfitting of data; no test of conformity of variables to a linear gradient; no mention of pertinent checks for proportional hazards; no report of testing for interactions between independent variables; and unspecified coding or selection of independent variables. These problems would make the reported results potentially inaccurate, misleading, or difficult to interpret. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest a need for improvement in the reporting and perhaps conducting of multivariable analyses in medical research.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
(1990) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.27-3338 · Cited by 35,305
A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation
Efron, B., & Gong, G. (1983) · The American Statistician · doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483087 · Cited by 3,229
Modeling and variable selection in epidemiologic analysis
Greenland, S. (1989) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.79.3.340 · Cited by 2,208
A Proposal for a New Method of Evaluation of the Newborn Infant.
Apgar, V. (1953) · Anesthesia & Analgesia · doi:10.1213/00000539-195301000-00041 · Cited by 2,015
Freiman, J. A., Chalmers, T. C., Smith, H., & Kuebler, R. R. (1978) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm197809282991304 · Cited by 1,628
Physical Fitness as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Mortality in Asymptomatic North American Men
Ekelund, L.-G., Haskell, W. L., Johnson, J. L., Whaley, F. S., Criqui, M. H., Sheps, D. S., & Study, T. L. R. C. M. F.-U. (1988) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejm198811243192104 · Cited by 682
Increased risk of ischaemic heart disease in shift workers
Knutsson, A., Jonsson, B., Akerstedt, T., & Orth-Gomer, K. (1986) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(86)91619-3 · Cited by 459
Cited by
A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis
Peduzzi, P., Concato, J., Kemper, E., Holford, T. R., & Feinstein, A. R. (1996) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(96)00236-3 · Cited by 9,655
Self-citationMoher, D., Hopewell, S., Schulz, K. F., Montori, V., Gotzsche, P. C., Devereaux, P. J., Elbourne, D., Egger, M., & Altman, D. G. (2010) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.c869 · Cited by 8,883
Moons, K. G. M., Altman, D. G., Reitsma, J. B., Ioannidis, J. P. A., Macaskill, P., Steyerberg, E. W., Vickers, A. J., Ransohoff, D. F., & Collins, G. S. (2015) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m14-0698 · Cited by 5,147
The Revised CONSORT Statement for Reporting Randomized Trials: Explanation and Elaboration
Altman, D. G., Schulz, K. F., Moher, D., Egger, M., Davidoff, F., Elbourne, D., Gøtzsche, P. C., Lang, T., & for the CONSORT Group (2001) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-134-8-200104170-00012 · Cited by 3,835
D'Amico, G., Garcia-Tsao, G., & Pagliaro, L. (2006) · Journal of Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.jhep.2005.10.013 · Cited by 2,687
Moher, D., Hopewell, S., Schulz, K. F., Montori, V., Gøtzsche, P. C., Devereaux, P. J., Elbourne, D., Egger, M., & Altman, D. G. (2012) · International Journal of Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.ijsu.2011.10.001 · Cited by 2,345
Peduzzi, P., Concato, J., Feinstein, A. R., & Holford, T. R. (1995) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/0895-4356(95)00048-8 · Cited by 2,154
Self-citationReporting Recommendations for Tumor Marker Prognostic Studies (REMARK)
McShane, L. M., Altman, D. G., Sauerbrei, W., Taube, S. E., Gion, M., & Clark, G. M. (2005) · JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute · doi:10.1093/jnci/dji237 · Cited by 2,162
Moher, D., Hopewell, S., Schulz, K. F., Montori, V., Gøtzsche, P. C., Devereaux, P. J., Elbourne, D., Egger, M., & Altman, D. G. (2010) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.03.004 · Cited by 1,858
Predicting chemotherapy toxicity in older adults with cancer: a prospective multicenter study
Hurria, A., Togawa, K., Mohile, S. G., Owusu, C., Klepin, H. D., Gross, C. P., Lichtman, S. M., Gajra, A., Bhatia, S., Katheria, V., et al. (2011) · Journal of Clinical Oncology · doi:10.1200/jco.2011.34.7625 · Cited by 1,841
Inadequate Antimicrobial Treatment of Infections
Kollef, M. H., Sherman, G., Ward, S., & Fraser, V. J. (1999) · Chest · doi:10.1378/chest.115.2.462 · Cited by 1,805
Ibrahim, E. H., Sherman, G., Ward, S., Fraser, V. J., & Kollef, M. H. (2000) · Chest · doi:10.1378/chest.118.1.146 · Cited by 1,779
REporting recommendations for tumour MARKer prognostic studies (REMARK).
for the Statistics Subcommittee of the NCI-EORTC Working Group on Cancer Diagnostics, McShane, L. M., Altman, D. G., Sauerbrei, W., Taube, S. E., Gion, M., & Clark, G. M. (2005) · British Journal of Cancer · doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6602678 · Cited by 1,394
Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how?
Moons, K. G. M., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Grobbee, D. E., & Altman, D. G. (2009) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.b375 · Cited by 1,337
Morrell, M., Fraser, V. J., & Kollef, M. H. (2005) · Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy · doi:10.1128/aac.49.9.3640-3645.2005 · Cited by 1,286
Drakulovic, M. B., Torres, A., Bauer, T. T., Nicolas, J. M., Nogué, S., & Ferrer, M. (1999) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(98)12251-1 · Cited by 1,243
Moons, K. G. M., Kengne, A. P., Woodward, M., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Altman, D. G., & Grobbee, D. E. (2012) · Heart · doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2011-301246 · Cited by 889
Cepeda, M. S. (2003) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwg115 · Cited by 859
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults
Lee, S. J. (2006) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.295.7.801 · Cited by 809
Logistic regression in the medical literature:
Bagley, S. C., White, H., & Golomb, B. A. (2001) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(01)00372-9 · Cited by 616
Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review
Bouwmeester, W., Zuithoff, N. P. A., Mallett, S., Geerlings, M. I., Vergouwe, Y., Steyerberg, E. W., Altman, D. G., & Moons, K. G. M. (2012) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001221 · Cited by 600
An Empirical Comparison of Model Validation Techniques for Defect Prediction Models
Tantithamthavorn, C., McIntosh, S., Hassan, A. E., & Matsumoto, K. (2017) · IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering · doi:10.1109/tse.2016.2584050 · Cited by 574
Icard, P., Goudet, P., Charpenay, C., Andreassian, B., Carnaille, B., Chapuis, Y., Cougard, P., Henry, J., & Proye, C. (2001) · World Journal of Surgery · doi:10.1007/s00268-001-0047-y · Cited by 543
Aronin, S. I., Peduzzi, P., & Quagliarello, V. J. (1998) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-129-11_part_1-199812010-00004 · Cited by 486
Collins, G. S., Mallett, S., Omar, O., & Yu, L.-M. (2011) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/1741-7015-9-103 · Cited by 484
Early versus late enteral feeding of mechanically ventilated patients: Results of a clinical trial.
Ibrahim, E., Mehringer, L., Prentice, D., Sherman, G., Schaiff, R., Fraser, V, & Kollef, M. (2002) · Journal of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition · doi:10.1177/0148607102026003174 · Cited by 341
Couchoud, C., Labeeuw, M., Moranne, O., Allot, V., Esnault, V., Frimat, L., Stengel, B., & for the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) registry (2009) · Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation · doi:10.1093/ndt/gfn698 · Cited by 318
Manuscript Quality before and after Peer Review and Editing at Annals of Internal Medicine
Goodman, S. N., Berlin, J., Fletcher, S. W., & Fletcher, R. H. (1994) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-121-1-199407010-00003 · Cited by 324
MacLehose, Reeves, Harvey, Sheldon, Russell, & Black (2000) · Health Technology Assessment · doi:10.3310/hta4340 · Cited by 311
Murray, J., Farrington, D. P., & Eisner, M. P. (2009) · Journal of Experimental Criminology · doi:10.1007/s11292-008-9066-0 · Cited by 280
EL-EBIARY, M., TORRES, A., FÁBREGAS, N., de la BELLACASA, J. P., GONZÁLEZ, J., RAMIREZ, J., del BAÑO, D., HERNÁNDEZ, C., & JIMÉNEZ de ANTA, M. T. (1997) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/ajrccm.156.2.9612023 · Cited by 271
Incidence of and risk factors for hallucinations and delusions in patients with probable AD
Paulsen, J. S., Salmon, D. P., Thal, L. J., Romero, R., Weisstein–Jenkins, C., Galasko, D., Hofstetter, C. R., Thomas, R., Grant, I., & Jeste, D. V. (2000) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.54.10.1965 · Cited by 254
Time-dependence of hazard ratios for prognostic factors in primary breast cancer
Hilsenbeck, S. G., Ravdin, P. M., de Moor, C. A., Chamness, G. C., Osborne, C. K., & Clark, G. M. (1998) · Breast Cancer Research and Treatment · doi:10.1023/a:1006133418245 · Cited by 237
Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in drug‐treated hypertensive patients and control subjects
Rantala, A. O., Kauma, H., Lilja, M., Savolainen, M. J., Reunanen, A., & Kesäniemi, Y. A. (1999) · Journal of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2796.1999.00429.x · Cited by 211
Bruneel, F., Hocqueloux, L., Alberti, C., Wolff, M., Chevret, S., Bédos, J.-P., Durand, R., Le Bras, J., Régnier, B., & Vachon, F. (2003) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.200206-631oc · Cited by 207
Flechet, M., Güiza, F., Schetz, M., Wouters, P., Vanhorebeek, I., Derese, I., Gunst, J., Spriet, I., Casaer, M., Van den Berghe, G., et al. (2017) · Intensive Care Medicine · doi:10.1007/s00134-017-4678-3 · Cited by 169
Schramm, G. E., Johnson, J. A., Doherty, J. A., Micek, S. T., & Kollef, M. H. (2006) · Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1097/01.ccm.0000227655.41566.3e · Cited by 145
Park, S.-K., Hur, M., Kim, E., Kim, W. H., Park, J. B., Kim, Y., Yang, J.-H., Jun, T.-G., & Kim, C. S. (2016) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0166328 · Cited by 133
King, R. L., Lorch, S. A., Cohen, D. M., Hodinka, R. L., Cohn, K. A., & Shah, S. S. (2007) · Pediatrics · doi:10.1542/peds.2007-0252 · Cited by 98
Bagnall, N. M., Pring, E. T., Malietzis, G., Athanasiou, T., Faiz, O. D., Kennedy, R. H., & Jenkins, J. T. (2018) · International Journal of Colorectal Disease · doi:10.1007/s00384-018-3141-4 · Cited by 27
Dato, S., Crocco, P., De Rango, F., Iannone, F., Maletta, R., Bruni, A. C., Saiardi, A., Rose, G., & Passarino, G. (2021) · Mechanisms of Ageing and Development · doi:10.1016/j.mad.2021.111439 · Cited by 15
Cardoso, C. R. L., & Salles, G. F. (2008) · Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research · doi:10.1590/s0100-879x2008000800006 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Concato, J., Feinstein, A. R., & Holford, T. R.
- Venue
- Annals of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American College of Physicians
- Published
- 1993-02-01
- Volume
- 118
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 201-210
- ISSN
- 0003-4819 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-3704
- OpenAlex
- W2094104004
- Cited by
- 1,115
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 41.21
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
