Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how?
Abstract
Doctors have little specific research to draw on when predicting outcome. In this first article in a series Karel Moons and colleagues explain why research into prognosis is important and how to design such research
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Knowledge of the predictors might influence outcome assessment, resulting in a biased estimation of the predictor effects for the outcome.
“Knowledge of the predictors might influence outcome assessment, resulting in a biased estimation of the predictor effects for the outcome [6],[17],[39].”
From Reporting and Methods in Clinical Prediction Research: A Systematic Review (2012) · cites this paper as [6]
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- Authors
- Moons, K. G. M., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Grobbee, D. E., & Altman, D. G.
- Affiliations
- University Medical Center Utrecht (NL)
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Moons, K. G M
- Venue
- BMJ
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2009-02-23
- Volume
- 338
- Issue
- feb23 1
- Pages
- b375-b375
- ISSN
- 0007-1447 (ISSN-L)
- 0959-8138
- 1468-5833
- OpenAlex
- W1994224528
- Cited by
- 1,337
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 56 · 2025: 77 · 2024: 102 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 108 · 2021: 96 · 2020: 102 · 2019: 92 · 2018: 79 · 2017: 88 · 2016: 66 · 2015: 76 · 2014: 74 · 2013: 74 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 44.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BMJ (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Cancer Research UK
- Medical Research Council (MC_EX_G0800814)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Keywords
- prognosis, prognostic research, outcome prediction, research design, prognostic factors, clinical prediction
- MeSH terms
- Prognosis, Research Design, Models, Statistical, Causality, Multivariate Analysis, Biomedical Research
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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