Natural History of Adrenal Incidentalomas With and Without Mild Autonomous Cortisol Excess: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Abstract
Background: Adrenal incidentalomas are mostly benign nonfunctioning adrenal tumors (NFATs) or adenomas causing mild autonomous cortisol excess (MACE), but their natural history is unclear. Purpose: To summarize the follow-up data of adults with NFAT or MACE to determine the proportions of tumor growth, malignant transformation, and incident changes in hormone function; the prevalence of incident cardiometabolic comorbid conditions; and mortality. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and Scopus (January 1990 to February 2019) and bibliographies of identified articles, without language restriction. Study Selection: Studies that included 20 or more conservatively managed patients with NFAT or MACE and reported outcomes at baseline and after at least 12 months of follow-up. Data Extraction: Pairs of reviewers extracted outcomes and assessed methodological quality. Data Synthesis: Thirty-two studies reported outcomes of 4121 patients with NFAT or MACE, 61.5% of whom were women; the mean age was 60.2 years, and mean follow-up was 50.2 months. Mean tumor growth was 2 mm over 52.8 months. Clinically significant tumor enlargement (≥10 mm) occurred in 2.5% of patients, and none developed adrenal cancer. Clinically overt hormone excess was unlikely to develop (<0.1%) in patients with NFAT or MACE. Only 4.3% of patients with NFAT developed MACE, and preexisting MACE was unlikely to resolve (<0.1%). Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes were highly prevalent (60.0%, 42.0%, 33.7%, and 18.1% of patients, respectively) and were more likely to develop and worsen in MACE than NFAT. New cardiovascular events were more prevalent in MACE (15.5%) than NFAT (6.4%). Mortality was 11.2% and was similar between NFAT and MACE. Limitation: Evidence was scarce, and definitions of MACE and comorbid conditions were heterogeneous. Conclusion: During follow-up, NFAT and MACE do not show clinically relevant changes in size or hormonal function, but they may carry an increased risk for cardiometabolic comorbid conditions. Primary Funding Source: None.
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Although overt physical features may be absent, the subtle hypercortisolism seen in MACS has been associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes, including hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, weight gain, osteoporosis, increased frailty, and increased mortality.
“Although overt physical features may be absent, the subtle hypercortisolism seen in MACS has been associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes, including hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, weight gain, osteoporosis, increased frailty, and increased mortality (33, 34, 97-101).”
From Measuring cortisol in Cushing syndrome: diagnosis, monitoring, and cortisol circadian rhythm improvement. (2026) · cites this paper as [97]
Pre-existing MACE was unlikely to resolve (<0.1%).
“and pre-existing MACE was unlikely to resolve (<0.1%).”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
Reported mortality (11.2%) was similar between NFATs and MACE.
“However, reported mortality (11.2%) was similar between NFATs and MACE.”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
Only 4.3% of patients with NFATs developed MACE.
“Only 4.3% of patients with NFATs developed MACE, and pre-existing MACE was unlikely to resolve (<0.1%).”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
New cardiovascular events were more prevalent in MACE (15.5%) than NFATs (6.4%) during follow-up.
“new cardiovascular events were more prevalent in MACE (15.5%) than NFATs (6.4%) during follow-up.”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
In a systematic review/meta-analysis of 4121 patients with NFATs and/or MACE, clinically overt hormone excess (Cushing's) was unlikely to develop (<0.1%).
“Clinically overt hormone excess (Cushing’s syndrome) was unlikely to develop (<0.1%) in patients with NFATs or MACE.”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes were more likely to develop and worsen in MACE than NFATs.
“Hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes were more likely to develop and worsen in MACE than NFATs”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
In a systematic review/meta-analysis of nonfunctioning adrenal lesions, mean tumor growth was 2 mm over median 52.8 months; clinically significant enlargement (≥10 mm) occurred in 2.5%; none developed adrenal cancer.
“This is further supported by a recent systematic review and meta-analysis of nonfunctioning adrenal lesions where a mean tumor growth of 2 mm occurred over a median of 52.8 months, and clinically significant tumor enlargement (≥10 mm) occurred in only 2.5% of patients, and none developed adrenal cancer (269).”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
ACS is associated with numerous comorbidities.
“The risk of patients with ACS progressing to overt Cushing’s syndrome is negligible; however, ACS is associated with numerous comorbidities (269).”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
The risk of patients with ACS progressing to overt Cushing's syndrome is negligible.
“The risk of patients with ACS progressing to overt Cushing’s syndrome is negligible; however, ACS is associated with numerous comorbidities (269).”
From Adrenal incidentaloma (2020) · cites this paper as [269]
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Adrenal Neoplasms: Lessons from Adrenal Multidisciplinary Tumor Boards
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Self-citationRisk of bone fractures after the diagnosis of adrenal adenomas: a population-based cohort study
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Self-citationManagement and Medical Therapy of Mild Hypercortisolism
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Glucose metabolism in Cushing's syndrome
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Cardiovascular risk and mortality in patients with active and treated hypercortisolism
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“This is not surprising, since most studies have found that LNSC (regardless of assay method) has a poor sensitivity in patients with mild cortisol excess (formerly known as subclinical CS) [20, 56, 62-76].”
Prevalence of Hypercortisolism in Difficult-to-Control Type 2 Diabetes
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Self-citationPrimary aldosteronism with mild autonomous cortisol secretion increases renal complication risk
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Assessment of mild autonomous cortisol secretion among incidentally discovered adrenal masses
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Gender differences in human adrenal cortex and its disorders
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Pathophysiological Link between Insulin Resistance and Adrenal Incidentalomas
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Attenuation Value in Adrenal Incidentalomas: A Longitudinal Study
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Approach to the Patient with Subclinical Cushing’s Syndrome
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The Landmark Series: Evaluation and Management of Adrenal Incidentalomas
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Mild autonomous cortisol secretion: impact on bone health and quality of life. A review
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Adrenal Incidentaloma Controversial Size Recommendations
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Self-citationAdrenal incidentaloma: cardiovascular and metabolic effects of mild cortisol excess
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Long-term blood pressure outcomes of laparoscopic adrenalectomy in trHTN patients
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Presentation and management of patients with adrenal masses: a large tertiary centre experience
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Natural history of nonfunctioning adrenal incidentalomas: a 10-year longitudinal follow-up study
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Investigation and assessment of adrenal incidentalomas
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Fragility Fractures and Cortisol Secretion in Patients With Nonfunctioning Adrenal Incidentalomas
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The Effect of Curative Treatment on Hyperglycemia in Patients With Cushing Syndrome
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Insights on the Natural History of Adrenal Incidentalomas
Terzolo, M., & Reimondo, G. (2019) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m19-1482 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Evaluation of Adrenal Incidentaloma
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Self-citationClinical Review: The Approach to the Evaluation and Management of Bilateral Adrenal Masses
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Self-citationLowering the dexamethasone suppression test cut-off: is it time yet?
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Cognition in patients with mild autonomous cortisol secretion at baseline and post-adrenalectomy
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Draft of the clinical practice guidelines “Adrenal incidentaloma”
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Are comorbidities of patients with adrenal incidentaloma tied to sex?
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The impact of mild autonomous cortisol secretion and proposed interventions
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Update on Medical Treatment of Cushing’s Syndrome
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Elhassan, Y. S., Alahdab, F., Prete, A., Delivanis, D. A., Khanna, A., Prokop, L., Murad, M. H., O'Reilly, M. W., Arlt, W., & Bancos, I.
- Affiliations
- University of Birmingham (GB)
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- University of Birmingham Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research and Birmingham Health Partners Centre for Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Birmingham, United Kingdom (Y.S.E., A.P., M.W.O., W.A.)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Annals of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American College of Physicians
- Published
- 2019-07-16
- Volume
- 171
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 107-116
- ISSN
- 0003-4819 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-3704
- OpenAlex
- W2954206106
- Cited by
- 263
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 4
- FWCI
- 5.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Annals of Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Adrenal and Paraganglionic Tumors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Pituitary Gland Disorders and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Adrenal Hormones and Disorders
- Keywords
- adrenal incidentaloma, non-functioning adrenal tumor, adrenal adenoma, tumor growth, malignant transformation, cortisol excess, cardiometabolic comorbidities, cardiovascular events, mortality, conservative treatment
- MeSH terms
- Adrenal Gland Neoplasms, Humans, Hydrocortisone, Risk Factors, Biomarkers, Tumor, Comorbidity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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