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Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C
Open accessAbstract
The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus , Cx. tarsalis , and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.
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“Extreme heat can affect human mental health outcomes across a continuum of severity, from subclinical to life-altering.102,142–147”
From The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action (2024) · cites this paper as [145]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Shocket, M. S., Verwillow, A. B., Numazu, M. G., Slamani, H., Cohen, J. M., El Moustaid, F., Rohr, J., Johnson, L. R., & Mordecai, E. A.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Virginia Tech (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, United States
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- Corresponding author
- Shocket, Marta S
- Venue
- eLife
- Publisher
- eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
- Published
- 2020-09-15
- Volume
- 9
- ISSN
- 2050-084X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7492091
- OpenAlex
- W3084581047
- Cited by
- 192
- References
- 149
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 3
- FWCI
- 15.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- eLife (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- VTechWorks (Virginia Tech) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DEB-1518681, DMS-1750113)
- National Institutes of Health (NIGMS R35 MIRA: 1R35GM133439-01)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
- Keywords
- West Nile virus, mosquito-borne viruses, temperature-dependent transmission, thermal optimum, thermal breadth, Culex pipiens, Culex tarsalis, eastern equine encephalitis virus, western equine encephalitis virus, St. Louis encephalitis virus, Sindbis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, climate change, vector-pathogen interactions, summer temperature
- MeSH terms
- Mosquito Vectors, Animals, Arbovirus Infections, Arboviruses, Culex, Models, Biological, Temperature, United States, West Nile Fever, West Nile virus
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