CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 97Vaccine Coverage and HesitancyImmune responses and vaccinationsGlobal Maternal and Child Health

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 9 of the 9 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Open access
Toor, Jaspreet, Echeverria-Londono, Susy, Li, Xiang, Abbas, Kaja, Carter, Emily D, Clapham, Hannah E, Clark, Andrew, de Villiers, Margaret J, Eilertson, Kirsten, Ferrari, Matthew, Gamkrelidze, Ivane, Hallett, Timothy B, Hinsley, Wes R, Hogan, Daniel, Huber, John H, Jackson, Michael L, Jean, Kevin, Jit, Mark, Karachaliou, Andromachi, Klepac, Petra, Kraay, Alicia, Lessler, Justin, Li, Xi, Lopman, Benjamin A, Mengistu, Tewodaj, Metcalf, C Jessica E, Moore, Sean M, Nayagam, Shevanthi, Papadopoulos, Timos, Perkins, T Alex, Portnoy, Allison, Razavi, Homie, Razavi-Shearer, Devin, Resch, Stephen, Sanderson, Colin, Sweet, Steven, Tam, Yvonne, Tanvir, Hira, Tran Minh, Quan, Trotter, Caroline L, Truelove, Shaun A, Vynnycky, Emilia, Walker, Neff, Winter, Amy, Woodruff, Kim, Ferguson, Neil M, Gaythorpe, Katy AM·2021·eLife
DOI 10.7554/elife.67635PMC PMC8277373
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Background: , and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.7554/elife.67635

Cites

9 of 9 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 151

  1. Abbas, 2020, Routine childhood immunisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: a benefit-risk analysis of health benefits versus excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, The Lancet Global Health, 8, e1264, 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30308-9 · DOI
  2. Abbas, 2020, Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical Cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels: a PRIME modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, 8, e536, 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30022-X · DOI
  3. Abbas K, Hadley L. 2021. Prime. Software Heritage. swh:1:rev:0da13630968de0863f38294a1c234c5947baf97e. https://archive.softwareheritage.org/swh:1:rev:0da13630968de0863f38294a1c234c5947baf97e.
  4. Amouzou, 2010, How well does LiST capture mortality by wealth quintile? A comparison of measured versus modelled mortality rates among children under-five in Bangladesh, International Journal of Epidemiology, 39, i186, 10.1093/ije/dyq034 · DOI
  5. Anderson, 1991, Infectious Disease of Humans: Dynamics and Control, 10.1093/oso/9780198545996.001.0001 · DOI · Paper page
  6. Andrade, 2006, Rubella in pregnancy: intrauterine transmission and perinatal outcome during a Brazilian epidemic, Journal of Clinical Virology, 35, 285, 10.1016/j.jcv.2005.09.007 · DOI
  7. Belcher, 1977, Meningococcal meningitis in northern Ghana: epidemiology and control measures, The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 26, 748, 10.4269/ajtmh.1977.26.748 · DOI
  8. Bilcke, 2009, Estimating the incidence of symptomatic Rotavirus infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis, PLOS ONE, 4, 10.1371/journal.pone.0006060 · DOI
  9. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. 2020. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation pledges $1.6 billion to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, to protect the next generation with lifesaving vaccines. https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2020/06/Bill-and-Melinda-Gates-Foundation-pledges-to-Gavi-the-Vaccine-Alliance [Accessed February 1, 2021].
  10. Boisier, 2007, Case-fatality ratio of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt: we can do better, Vaccine, 25 Suppl 1, A24, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.04.036 · DOI
  11. Boulianne, 1995, Measles, mumps, and rubella antibodies in children 5-6 years after immunization: effect of vaccine type and age at vaccination, Vaccine, 13, 1611, 10.1016/0264-410X(95)00098-L · DOI
  12. Campagne, 1999, Epidemiology of bacterial meningitis in Niamey, Niger, 1981-96, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 77, 499
  13. Campbell, 2011, Estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis: a systematic review, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 89, 766, 10.2471/BLT.10.085233 · DOI
  14. Campos, 2012, Health and economic impact of HPV 16/18 vaccination and cervical cancer screening in Eastern Africa, International Journal of Cancer, 130, 2672, 10.1002/ijc.26269 · DOI
  15. Chandir, 2020, Impact of COVID-19 pandemic response on uptake of routine immunizations in Sindh, Pakistan: An analysis of provincial electronic immunization registry data, Vaccine, 38, 7146, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.08.019 · DOI
  16. Chen, 2012, Tracking measles infection through non-linear state space models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 61, 117, 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2011.01001.x · DOI
  17. Chepkorir, 2019, Serological evidence of Flavivirus circulation in human populations in Northern Kenya: an assessment of disease risk 2016-2017, Virology Journal, 16, 10.1186/s12985-019-1176-y · DOI
  18. Clark, 2017, Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements, PLOS ONE, 12, 10.1371/journal.pone.0183392 · DOI
  19. Clark, 2019, Mortality reduction benefits and intussusception risks of Rotavirus vaccination in 135 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis of current and alternative schedules, The Lancet Global Health, 7, e1541, 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30412-7 · DOI
  20. Clark, 2019, Efficacy of live oral Rotavirus vaccines by duration of follow-up: a meta-regression of randomised controlled trials, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 19, 717, 10.1016/S1473-3099(19)30126-4 · DOI
  21. Clark, 2009, Timing of children's vaccinations in 45 low-income and middle-income countries: an analysis of survey data, The Lancet, 373, 1543, 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60317-2 · DOI
  22. Clermont, 2017, Nutrition interventions in the lives saved tool (LiST), The Journal of Nutrition, 147, 2132S, 10.3945/jn.116.243766 · DOI
  23. Cooper, 1967, Clinical manifestations of postnatal and congenital rubella, Archives of Ophthalmology, 77, 434, 10.1001/archopht.1967.00980020436004 · DOI
  24. Davis, 2013, The effect of Haemophilus influenzae type B and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on childhood meningitis mortality: a systematic review, BMC Public Health, 13 Suppl 3, 10.1186/1471-2458-13-S3-S21 · DOI
  25. de Villiers, 2020, Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: a comparison of two simulation models, PLOS ONE, 15, 10.1371/journal.pone.0237525 · DOI
  26. Diallo M, Janusz K, Lewis R, Manengu C, Sall A. 2010. World Health Organisation. Rapid Assessment of Yellow Fever Viral Activity in the Central African Republic.
  27. Echeverria-Londono, 2021, How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?, 10.1101/2021.01.08.21249378 · DOI
  28. Edmunds, 1993, The influence of age on the development of the hepatitis b carrier state, Proceedings. Biological Sciences, 253, 197, 10.1098/rspb.1993.0102 · DOI
  29. Ehreth, 2003, The global value of vaccination, Vaccine, 21, 596, 10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00623-0 · DOI
  30. Eilertson, 2019, Estimation and prediction for a mechanistic model of measles transmission using particle filtering and maximum likelihood estimation, Statistics in Medicine, 38, 4146, 10.1002/sim.8290 · DOI
  31. Farrington, 1990, Modelling forces of infection for measles, mumps and rubella, Statistics in Medicine, 9, 953, 10.1002/sim.4780090811 · DOI
  32. Ferlay J, Colombet M, Bray, Globocan F. 2020. Lyon, France: International Agency for Research on Cancer. Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence Worldwide., IARC Cancer Base No. 9.
  33. Fick, 2017, WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land Areas, International Journal of Climatology, 37, 4302, 10.1002/joc.5086 · DOI · Paper page
  34. Finkenstadt, 2000, Time series modelling of childhood diseases, Applied Statistics, 49, 187, 10.1111/1467-9876.00187 · DOI
  35. Fox, 2011, Technical inputs, enhancements and applications of the lives saved tool (LiST), BMC Public Health, 11, 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S3-I1 · DOI
  36. Friberg, 2010, Comparing modelled predictions of neonatal mortality impacts using LiST with observed results of community-based intervention trials in South Asia, International Journal of Epidemiology, 39, i11, 10.1093/ije/dyq017 · DOI
  37. Garske, 2014, Yellow fever in Africa: estimating the burden of disease and impact of mass vaccination from outbreak and serological data, PLOS Medicine, 11, 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001638 · DOI
  38. Gaythorpe, 2019, Quantifying model evidence for yellow fever transmission routes in Africa, PLOS Computational Biology, 15, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007355 · DOI
  39. Gaythorpe, 2021, The global burden of yellow fever, eLife, 10, 10.7554/eLife.64670 · DOI
  40. Gaythorpe, 2021, Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries, eLife, 10, 10.7554/eLife.67023 · DOI
  41. GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, 2017, Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, The Lancet, 390, 1260, 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X · DOI · Paper page
  42. Gladstone, 2011, Protective effect of natural Rotavirus infection in an Indian birth cohort, New England Journal of Medicine, 365, 337, 10.1056/NEJMoa1006261 · DOI
  43. Goldie, 2007, Cost-effectiveness of HPV 16, 18 vaccination in Brazil, Vaccine, 25, 6257, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2007.05.058 · DOI
  44. Goldie, 2008, Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries, Vaccine, 26, 4080, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.053 · DOI · Paper page
  45. Goldschneider, 1969, Human immunity to the meningococcus. II. development of natural immunity, The Journal of Experimental Medicine, 129, 1327, 10.1084/jem.129.6.1327 · DOI
  46. Goldstein, 2005, A mathematical model to estimate global hepatitis B disease burden and vaccination impact, International Journal of Epidemiology, 34, 1329, 10.1093/ije/dyi206 · DOI · Paper page
  47. Griffiths, 2012, Dose-specific efficacy of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled clinical trials, Epidemiology and Infection, 140, 1343, 10.1017/S0950268812000957 · DOI
  48. Grillner, 1983, Outcome of rubella during pregnancy with special reference to the 17th-24th weeks of gestation, Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 15, 321, 10.3109/inf.1983.15.issue-4.01 · DOI
  49. Guan, 2012, Human papillomavirus types in 115,789 HPV-positive women: a meta-analysis from cervical infection to Cancer, International Journal of Cancer, 131, 2349, 10.1002/ijc.27485 · DOI · Paper page
  50. Gumma, 2011, Mapping rice areas of South Asia using MODIS multitemporal data, Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 5, 10.1117/1.3619838 · DOI
  51. Hahné, 2009, Rubella outbreak in the netherlands, 2004-2005: high burden of congenital infection and spread to Canada, The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 28, 795, 10.1097/INF.0b013e3181a3e2d5 · DOI
  52. Hamlet, 2019, POLICI: a web application for visualising and extracting yellow fever vaccination coverage in Africa, Vaccine, 37, 1384, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.01.074 · DOI
  53. Hasso-Agopsowicz, 2019, Global review of the age distribution of Rotavirus disease in children aged <5 years before the introduction of rotavirus vaccination, Clinical Infectious Diseases : An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 69, 1071, 10.1093/cid/ciz060 · DOI
  54. Hazel, 2010, Comparing modelled to measured mortality reductions: applying the lives saved tool to evaluation data from the accelerated child survival programme in west Africa, International Journal of Epidemiology, 39 Suppl 1, i32, 10.1093/ije/dyq019 · DOI
  55. Hughes, 2020, The effect of time since measles vaccination and age at first dose on measles vaccine effectiveness - A systematic review, Vaccine, 38, 460, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.10.090 · DOI
  56. Irving, 2012, Modelling meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt, Epidemiology and Infection, 140, 897, 10.1017/S0950268811001385 · DOI
  57. Jackson, 2018, Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the african meningitis belt, PLOS ONE, 13, 10.1371/journal.pone.0206117 · DOI
  58. Jean, 2016, A Meta-Analysis of serological response associated with yellow fever vaccination, The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 95, 1435, 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0401 · DOI
  59. Jit, 2014, Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, 2, 406, 10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70237-2 · DOI · Paper page
  60. Jit, 2018, Potential lives saved in 73 countries by adopting multi-cohort vaccination of 9-14-year-old girls against human papillomavirus, International Journal of Cancer, 143, 317, 10.1002/ijc.31321 · DOI · Paper page
  61. Johansson, 2014, The whole iceberg: estimating the incidence of yellow fever virus infection from the number of severe cases, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 108, 482, 10.1093/trstmh/tru092 · DOI
  62. Johnson, 2010, Systematic evaluation of serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease among children under five: the pneumococcal global serotype project, PLOS Medicine, 7, 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000348 · DOI
  63. Jones, 2020, How COVID-19 is changing the cold and flu season, Nature, 588, 388, 10.1038/d41586-020-03519-3 · DOI
  64. Karachaliou, 2015, Modeling Long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac in the African meningitis belt, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 61 Suppl 5, S594, 10.1093/cid/civ508 · DOI
  65. Keane, 2016, Systematic review with meta-analysis: the risk of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus infection in sub-Saharan Africa, Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 44, 1005, 10.1111/apt.13795 · DOI
  66. Keja, 1988, Expanded programme on immunization, World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, 41, 59
  67. Kim, 2007, Multiparameter calibration of a natural history model of cervical Cancer, American Journal of Epidemiology, 166, 137, 10.1093/aje/kwm086 · DOI · Paper page
  68. Kraay, 2020, Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 on Norovirus outbreaks: an analysis of outbreaks reported by 9 US states, 10.1101/2020.11.25.20237115 · DOI
  69. Kraemer, 2015, The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors aedes aegypti and ae. albopictus, eLife, 4, 10.7554/eLife.08347 · DOI
  70. Kundrick, 2018, Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi, BMC Public Health, 18, 10.1186/s12889-018-5628-x · DOI
  71. Kuniholm, 2006, Seroprevalence and distribution of Flaviviridae, togaviridae, and Bunyaviridae arboviral infections in rural cameroonian adults, The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 74, 1078, 10.4269/ajtmh.2006.74.1078 · DOI
  72. Lamberti, 2016, A systematic review of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on diarrhea outcomes among children younger than 5 years, Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 35, 992, 10.1097/INF.0000000000001232 · DOI
  73. Larsen, 2011, Comparison of lives saved tool model child mortality estimates against measured data from vector control studies in sub-Saharan africa, BMC Public Health, 11 Suppl 3, 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S3-S34 · DOI
  74. Lingani, 2015, Meningococcal meningitis surveillance in the African meningitis belt, 2004-2013, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 61 Suppl 5, S410, 10.1093/cid/civ597 · DOI
  75. Linhares, 1989, Longitudinal study of Rotavirus infections among children from Belém, Brazil, Epidemiology and Infection, 102, 129, 10.1017/S0950268800029769 · DOI
  76. Longbottom, 2017, Mapping the spatial distribution of the Japanese encephalitis vector, culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles, 1901 (Diptera: culicidae) within areas of Japanese encephalitis risk, Parasites & Vectors, 10, 10.1186/s13071-017-2086-8 · DOI
  77. LP DAAC NASA. 2001. USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC).
  78. Lucero, 2004, Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines for preventing vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia with consolidation on x-ray in children under two years of age, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 1, 10.1002/14651858.CD004977 · DOI
  79. Marjoram, 2003, Markov chain monte carlo without likelihoods, PNAS, 100, 15324, 10.1073/pnas.0306899100 · DOI · Paper page
  80. Mendy, 1999, Hepatitis b virus DNA in relation to duration of hepatitis b surface antigen carriage, British Journal of Biomedical Science, 56, 34
  81. Mendy, 2008, Changes in viral load and HBsAg and HBeAg status with age in HBV chronic carriers in the Gambia, Virology Journal, 5, 10.1186/1743-422X-5-49 · DOI
  82. Merlin, 1986, Evaluation of immunological and entomotological indices of yellow fever in pointe-noire, people’s republic of congo, Bulletin De La Societe De Pathologie Exotique Et De Ses Filiales, 79, 199
  83. Metcalf, 2012, Impact of birth rate, seasonality and transmission rate on minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination, Epidemiology and Infection, 140, 2290, 10.1017/S0950268812000131 · DOI
  84. Metcalf, 2012, Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data, Theoretical Population Biology, 82, 275, 10.1016/j.tpb.2011.12.001 · DOI
  85. Miller, 1982, Consequences of confirmed maternal rubella at successive stages of pregnancy, The Lancet, 320, 781, 10.1016/S0140-6736(82)92677-0 · DOI
  86. Miller, 1991, Rubella in the United Kingdom, Epidemiology and Infection, 107, 31, 10.1017/S0950268800048652 · DOI
  87. Ministry of Health. 2018. HBV. Democratic People,S Republic of Korea, Unpublished Data on HBV Epidemiology in Democratic People,S Republic of Korea.
  88. Mirambo, 2019, Adverse pregnancy outcomes among pregnant women with acute rubella infections in Mwanza City, Tanzania, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 78, 72, 10.1016/j.ijid.2018.10.020 · DOI
  89. Monasta, 2012, Burden of disease caused by otitis media: systematic review and global estimates, PLOS ONE, 7, 10.1371/journal.pone.0036226 · DOI
  90. Murray, 1996, Estimating causes of death: new methods and global and regional applications for 1990, The Global Burden of Disease, 1, 117
  91. Nayagam, 2016, Requirements for global elimination of hepatitis B: a modelling study, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 16, 1399, 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30204-3 · DOI
  92. Nicoara, 1999, Decay of passively acquired maternal antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella viruses, Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory Immunology, 6, 868, 10.1128/CDLI.6.6.868-871.1999 · DOI
  93. Omilabu, 1990, Yellow fever haemagglutination-inhibiting, neutralising and IgM antibodies in vaccinated and unvaccinated residents of Ibadan, Nigeria, Comparative Immunology, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, 13, 95, 10.1016/0147-9571(90)90521-T · DOI
  94. Ott, 2012, Global epidemiology of hepatitis B virus infection: new estimates of age-specific HBsAg seroprevalence and endemicity, Vaccine, 30, 2212, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.12.116 · DOI
  95. Ott, 2012, The risk of perinatal hepatitis B virus transmission: hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence estimates for all world regions, BMC Infectious Diseases, 12, 10.1186/1471-2334-12-131 · DOI
  96. Panagiotopoulos, 1999, Increase in congenital rubella occurrence after immunisation in Greece: retrospective survey and systematic review, BMJ, 319, 1462, 10.1136/bmj.319.7223.1462 · DOI
  97. Panagiotopoulos, 2004, Epidemiology of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in Greece, 1994-2003, Eurosurveillance, 9, 15, 10.2807/esm.09.04.00461-en · DOI
  98. Patel, 2009, Oral Rotavirus vaccines: how well will they work where they are needed most?, The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 200, S39, 10.1086/605035 · DOI
  99. Pitzer, 2012, Direct and indirect effects of Rotavirus vaccination: comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models, PLOS ONE, 7, 10.1371/journal.pone.0042320 · DOI
  100. Polaris Observatory Collaborators, 2018, Global prevalence, treatment, and prevention of hepatitis B virus infection in 2016: a modelling study, The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 3, 383, 10.1016/S2468-1253(18)30056-6 · DOI
  101. Portnoy, 2018, Impact of measles supplementary immunization activities on reaching children missed by routine programs, Vaccine, 36, 170, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.10.080 · DOI
  102. Portnoy, 2019, Estimates of case-fatality ratios of measles in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and modelling analysis, The Lancet. Global Health, 7, e472, 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30537-0 · DOI
  103. Prem, 2017, Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data, PLOS Computational Biology, 13, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005697 · DOI
  104. Quaglio, 2008, Prevalence and risk factors for viral hepatitis in the kosovarian population: implications for health policy, Journal of Medical Virology, 80, 833, 10.1002/jmv.21141 · DOI
  105. Quan, 2020, Estimates of the global burden of japanese encephalitis and the impact of vaccination from 2000-2015, eLife, 9, 10.7554/eLife.51027 · DOI
  106. Ricca, 2011, Comparing estimates of child mortality reduction modelled in LiST with pregnancy history survey data for a community-based NGO project in Mozambique, BMC Public Health, 11 Suppl 3, 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S3-S35 · DOI
  107. Robinson, 2014, Mapping the global distribution of livestock, PLOS ONE, 9, 10.1371/journal.pone.0096084 · DOI
  108. Rudan, 2013, (CHERG), Epidemiology and etiology of childhood pneumonia in 2010: estimates of incidence, severe morbidity, mortality, underlying risk factors and causative pathogens for 192 countries, Journal of Global Health, 3, 10.7189/jogh.03.010401 · DOI
  109. Saad de Owens, 1989, Rubella in Panama: still a problem, The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 8, 110
  110. Schenzle, 1984, An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles transmission, Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 1, 169, 10.1093/imammb/1.2.169 · DOI
  111. Schiller, 2012, A review of clinical trials of human papillomavirus prophylactic vaccines, Vaccine, 30 Suppl 5, F123, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.04.108 · DOI · Paper page
  112. Shrestha, 1990, Seroepidemiology of hepatitis b in Nepal, The Journal of Communicable Diseases, 22, 27
  113. Siegel, 1966, Comparative fetal mortality in maternal virus diseases. A prospective study on rubella, measles, mumps, chicken pox and hepatitis, The New England Journal of Medicine, 274, 768, 10.1056/NEJM196604072741404 · DOI
  114. Siegel, 1966, Fetal mortality in maternal rubella, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 96, 247, 10.1016/0002-9378(66)90322-X · DOI
  115. Simons, 2012, Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data, The Lancet, 379, 2173, 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60522-4 · DOI
  116. Simons, 2016, Systematic review of the manifestations of congenital rubella syndrome in infants and characterization of Disability-Adjusted life years (DALYs), Risk Analysis, 36, 1332, 10.1111/risa.12263 · DOI
  117. Taha, 2020, Impact of COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown on invasive meningococcal disease, BMC Research Notes, 13, 10.1186/s13104-020-05241-9 · DOI
  118. Takahashi, 2017, The geography of measles vaccination in the african great lakes region, Nature Communications, 8, 10.1038/ncomms15585 · DOI
  119. Tartof, 2013, Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the african meningitis belt, PLOS ONE, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0063605 · DOI
  120. Thompson, 2016, Characterization of the risks of adverse outcomes following rubella infection in pregnancy, Risk Analysis, 36, 1315, 10.1111/risa.12264 · DOI
  121. Thompson, 2019, Seroepidemiology of hepatitis B in the democratic republic of the Congo, The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 101, 226, 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0883 · DOI
  122. Toizumi, 2014, Mortality associated with pulmonary hypertension in congenital rubella syndrome, Pediatrics, 134, e519, 10.1542/peds.2013-4184 · DOI
  123. Traore, 2009, Incidence, seasonality, age distribution, and mortality of pneumococcal meningitis in burkina faso and Togo, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 48, S181, 10.1086/596498 · DOI
  124. Troeger, 2018, Rotavirus vaccination and the global burden of Rotavirus diarrhea among children younger than 5 years, JAMA Pediatrics, 172, 958, 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.1960 · DOI
  125. Tsai, 1987, Investigation of a possible yellow fever epidemic and serosurvey for Flavivirus infections in northern Cameroon, 1984, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 65, 855
  126. Tshering, 2020, Prevalence of HBV and HCV infections, Bhutan, 2017: progress and next steps, BMC Infectious Diseases, 20, 10.1186/s12879-020-05176-3 · DOI
  127. United States Ministry of Health. 2018. Technical Report. Appendix 2 Pp.: A Survey of Viral Hepatitis (Reduced) by Administrative Areas and for Contingents (Based on Statistical Reporting Sector-Form 40).
  128. van den Hurk, 2009, Ecology and geographical expansion of Japanese encephalitis virus, Annual Review of Entomology, 54, 17, 10.1146/annurev.ento.54.110807.090510 · DOI
  129. Vanderslott S, Dadonaite B, Roser M. 2013. Our World in Data. Vaccination.
  130. Varaine, 1997, Meningitis outbreaks and vaccination strategy, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 91, 3, 10.1016/S0035-9203(97)90371-0 · DOI
  131. Vejtorp, 1980, Rubella IgM antibodies in sera from infants born after maternal rubella later than the 12th week of pregnancy, Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 12, 1, 10.3109/inf.1980.12.issue-1.01 · DOI
  132. Velázquez, 1996, Rotavirus infection in infants as protection against subsequent infections, New England Journal of Medicine, 335, 1022, 10.1056/NEJM199610033351404 · DOI
  133. Verguet, 2015, Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: a mathematical model to inform optimal policy, Vaccine, 33, 1291, 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.11.050 · DOI
  134. Victora, 2013, How within-country inequalities and co-coverage may affect LiST estimates of lives saved by scaling up interventions, BMC Public Health, 13 Suppl 3, 10.1186/1471-2458-13-S3-S24 · DOI
  135. Vynnycky, 2003, The predicted impact of private sector MMR vaccination on the burden of congenital rubella syndrome, Vaccine, 21, 2708, 10.1016/S0264-410X(03)00229-9 · DOI
  136. Vynnycky, 2016, Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam, Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 12, 150, 10.1080/21645515.2015.1060380 · DOI
  137. Vynnycky, 2016, Using seroprevalence and immunisation coverage data to estimate the global burden of congenital rubella syndrome, 1996-2010: a systematic review, PLOS ONE, 11, 10.1371/journal.pone.0149160 · DOI
  138. Vynnycky, 2019, The impact of Measles-Rubella vaccination on the morbidity and mortality from congenital rubella syndrome in 92 countries, Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 15, 309, 10.1080/21645515.2018.1532257 · DOI
  139. Wahl, 2018, Knoll, burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in the era of conjugate vaccines: global, regional, and national estimates for 2000-15., the lancet, The Lancet. Global Health, 6, e744, 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30247-X · DOI
  140. Walker, 2017, The lives saved tool in 2017: updates, applications, and future directions, BMC Public Health, 17
  141. Weekly Epidemiol Record, 2017, Eliminate yellow fever epidemics (EYE): a global strategy, 2017–2026, Releve Epidemiologique Hebdomadaire, 92, 193
  142. Werner, 1985, Prevalence of yellow fever antibodies in north Zaire], Annales De La Societe Belge De Medecine Tropicale, 65, 91
  143. White, 2019, Antibody kinetics following vaccination with MenAfriVac: an analysis of serological data from randomised trials, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 19, 327, 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30674-1 · DOI
  144. Wolfson, 2009, Estimates of measles case fatality ratios: a comprehensive review of community-based studies, International Journal of Epidemiology, 38, 192, 10.1093/ije/dyn224 · DOI
  145. World Health Organisation, 2001, Epidemics of meningococcal disease, African meningitis belt, 2001, Releve Epidemiologique Hebdomadaire, 76, 282
  146. World Health Organization. 2014. World Health Organization. SAGE Working Group on Japanese Encephalitis Vaccines.
  147. World Health Organization, Geneva, 2005, Enhanced surveillance of epidemic meningococcal meningitis in Africa: a three-year experience, Releve Epidemiologique Hebdomadaire, 80, 313
  148. Xie, 1996, Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions, Journal of Climate, 9, 840, 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0840:AOGMPU>2.0.CO;2 · DOI
  149. Yaro, 2019, Antibody persistence at the population level 5 years after mass vaccination with meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT) in burkina faso: need for a booster campaign?, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 68, 435, 10.1093/cid/ciy488 · DOI
  150. Zerhouni, 2019, GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, Cell, 179, 13, 10.1016/j.cell.2019.08.026 · DOI · Paper page
  151. Zgórniak-Nowosielska, 1996, Rubella infection during pregnancy in the 1985-86 epidemic: follow-up after seven years, European Journal of Epidemiology, 12, 303, 10.1007/BF00145421 · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
Toor, J., Echeverria-Londono, S., Li, X., Abbas, K., Carter, E. D., Clapham, H. E., Clark, A., de Villiers, M. J., Eilertson, K., Ferrari, M., Gamkrelidze, I., Hallett, T. B., Hinsley, W. R., Hogan, D., Huber, J. H., Jackson, M. L., Jean, K., Jit, M., Karachaliou, A., Klepac, P., Kraay, A., Lessler, J., Li, X., Lopman, B. A., Mengistu, T., Metcalf, C. J. E., Moore, S. M., Nayagam, S., Papadopoulos, T., Perkins, T. A., Portnoy, A., Razavi, H., Razavi-Shearer, D., Resch, S., Sanderson, C., Sweet, S., Tam, Y., Tanvir, H., Tran Minh, Q., Trotter, C. L., Truelove, S. A., Vynnycky, E., Walker, N., Winter, A., Woodruff, K., Ferguson, N. M., & Gaythorpe, K. A.
Affiliations
  • Imperial College London (GB)
  • MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
  • Johns Hopkins University (US)
  • National University of Singapore (SG)
  • Colorado State University (US)
  • Pennsylvania State University (US)
  • Center for Disease Analysis (US)
  • Gavi (CH)
  • University of Notre Dame (US)
  • Kaiser Permanente (US)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
  • Emory University (US)
  • Princeton University (US)
  • Public Health England (GB)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
  • Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
Corresponding author
Gaythorpe, Katy AM
ORCID
Venue
eLife
Publisher
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Published
2021-07-13
Volume
10
ISSN
2050-084X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.7554/elife.67635
PMC
PMC8277373
OpenAlex
W3181487322
Cited by
97
References
9
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 8
FWCI
10.22
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • eLife (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • National University of Singapore (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo
  • Apollo (cc-by)
  • Greater South Information System
Funders
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1157270 / INV-009125)
  • Medical Research Council (MR/R015600/1)
  • National Institutes of Health (R01 GM124280, R01 AI112970)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
  • Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › Immune responses and vaccinations
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Global Maternal and Child Health
Keywords
vaccine impact, childhood immunization, vaccine-preventable diseases, mortality averted, under-five mortality, disease burden, measles, rubella, poliomyelitis, hepatitis B, hepatitis A, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, yellow fever, vaccination coverage
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Bacterial Infections, Bacterial Vaccines, Humans, Models, Biological, Global Health

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review