CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 456Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationClimate Change Policy and EconomicsClimate Change Communication and Perception

Groundswell : Preparing for Internal Climate Migration

Open access
Rigaud, Kanta Kumari, De Sherbinin, Alexander M., Jones, Bryan, Bergmann, Jonas, Clement, Viviane, Ober, Kayly, Schewe, Jacob, Adamo, Susana Beatriz +3 more·2018·Columbia University
DOI 10.7916/d8z33fns
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change. They will migrate from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectors and for the adequacy of infrastructure and social support systems. The report finds that internal climate migration will likely rise through 2050 and then accelerate unless there are significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and robust development action.

Integrity signals

Registry

DataCite · 10.7916/d8z33fns

Cites

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • ISIMIP has potential for climate migration research, yet thus far it has only been applied to a limited extent.

    “It also has potential for climate migration research, yet thus far it has only been applied to a limited extent, e.g., in the Groundswell Report (Rigaud et al., 2018).”

    From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Rigaud et al., 2018

  • By how many people will move depends on future levels of greenhouse gas emissions, socioeconomic development trajectories (especially in low and middle income countries), and, to a lesser extent, future international migration policies.

    “By how many will depend on future levels of greenhouse gas emissions, socioeconomic development trajectories (especially in low and middle income countries), and, to a lesser extent, future international migration policies.”

    From Climate related migration and displacement. (2022) · cites this paper as [3]

  • With additional climate change, the number of people on the move is almost certain to rise.

    “With additional climate change, the number of people on the move is almost certain to rise.”

    From Climate related migration and displacement. (2022) · cites this paper as [3]

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Rigaud, K. K., De Sherbinin, A. M., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K., Schewe, J., Adamo, S. B., McCusker, B., Heuser, S., & Midgley, A.
ORCID
Venue
Columbia University
Publisher
Columbia University
Published
2018
DOI
10.7916/d8z33fns
OpenAlex
W2794445867
Cited by
456
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 116 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 1
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Licence
other-oa
Locations
  • Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Keywords
climate-induced displacement, sea level rise, storm surge, water availability, crop productivity, climate change vulnerability, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, climate change adaptation, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America, social support systems, infrastructure adequacy

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review