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Risk Factors for Congestive Heart Failure in US Men and Women: NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The incidence of congestive heart failure (CHF) has been increasing steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades. We studied risk factors for CHF and their corresponding attributable risk in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: A total of 13 643 men and women without a history of CHF at baseline examination were included in this prospective cohort study. Risk factors were measured using standard methods between 1971 and 1975. Incidence of CHF was assessed using medical records and death certificates obtained between 1982 and 1984 and in 1986, 1987, and 1992. RESULTS: During average follow-up of 19 years, 1382 CHF cases were documented. Incidence of CHF was positively and significantly associated with male sex (relative risk [RR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.39; P<.001; population attributable risk [PAR], 8.9%), less than a high school education (RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04-1.42; P =.01; PAR, 8.9%), low physical activity (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.38; P<.001; PAR, 9.2%), cigarette smoking (RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.39-1.83; P<.001; PAR, 17.1%), overweight (RR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.12-1.52; P =.001; PAR, 8.0%), hypertension (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.24-1.59; P<.001; PAR, 10.1%), diabetes (RR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.51-2.28; P<.001; PAR, 3.1%), valvular heart disease (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.17-1.82; P =.001; PAR, 2.2%), and coronary heart disease (RR, 8.11; 95% CI, 6.95-9.46; P<.001; PAR, 61.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Male sex, less education, physical inactivity, cigarette smoking, overweight, diabetes, hypertension, valvular heart disease, and coronary heart disease are all independent risk factors for CHF. More than 60% of the CHF that occurs in the US general population might be attributable to coronary heart disease.
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“Similarly, in observational studies (NHANES 64 and ARIC 65 ), the incidence of HF in patients with T2DM was higher than in those without T2DM, with the corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.85 and 3.54.”
From Type 2 diabetes mellitus and heart failure: A position statement from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology (2018) · cites this paper as [64]
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“However, in human studies, we mainly have to rely on cross-sectional data at this time, and the conclusions are not firm regarding the direct role of obesity in the development of heart failure (14, 46, 132, 376).”
From Cardiac remodeling in obesity (2008) · cites this paper as [132]
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“The risk of CHF increases with age, a history of coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, cigarette smoking and obesity (He et al, 2001).”
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“Our observation of plasma glucose at admission as a marker of poor outcome in heart failure is, to our knowledge, novel. Diabetes is a risk factor for the development of heart failure”
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“Uncorrected obesity is believed to exacerbate cardiac defects, leading to heart failure and increased cardiac morbidity in obese individuals (6).”
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“Patients with type 2 diabetes have a high propensity to develop CHF [5], and”
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“Our finding is consistent with literature in which investigators noted strong associations between SES and clinical manifestations of microvascular damage, such as hypertension (1, 3, 4, 11, 22, 31) and diabetes (1, 29, 31), but weaker relationships with macrovascular, atherosclerotic markers such as blood lipids, cor…”
BackgroundResultAerobic fitness, muscular strength and obesity in relation to risk of heart failure
Crump, C., Sundquist, J., Winkleby, M. A., & Sundquist, K. (2017) · Heart · doi:10.1136/heartjnl-2016-310716 · Cited by 40
Drugs of Abuse and Heart Failure
Grubb, A. F., Greene, S. J., Fudim, M., DeWald, T. A., & Mentz, R. J. (2021) · Journal of Cardiac Failure · doi:10.1016/j.cardfail.2021.05.023 · Cited by 46
Medical Consequences of Obesity
Packianathan, I., & Finer, N. (2003) · Medicine · doi:10.1383/medc.31.4.8.27961 · Cited by 40
Usefulness of the Blood Hematocrit Level to Predict Development of Heart Failure in a Community
Coglianese, E. E., Qureshi, M. M., Vasan, R. S., Wang, T. J., & Moore, L. L. (2011) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2011.08.037 · Cited by 38
The patient with diabetes mellitus and heart failure: at-risk issues
Giles, T. D. (2003) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2003.09.017 · Cited by 40
Heart Failure in Women: Epidemiology, Biology and Treatment
Shah, R. U., Klein, L., & Lloyd‐Jones, D. M. (2009) · Women s Health · doi:10.2217/whe.09.50 · Cited by 42
“The first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) found that diabetes increased the risk of developing heart failure by approximately 80% in both genders [21].”
BackgroundA Review of the DASH Diet as an Optimal Dietary Plan for Symptomatic Heart Failure
Rifai, L., & Silver, M. A. (2015) · Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.pcad.2015.11.001 · Cited by 39
Qian, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhong, P., Peng, K., Xu, Z., Chen, X., Lu, K., Chen, G., Li, X., & Liang, G. (2016) · Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine · doi:10.1111/jcmm.12832 · Cited by 39
Heart Failure and Diabetes Mellitus: Defining the Problem and Exploring the Interrelationship
Wilkinson, M. J., Zadourian, A., & Taub, P. R. (2019) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2019.10.024 · Cited by 40
Myocardial glucotoxicity: Mechanisms and potential therapeutic targets
Battault, S., Renguet, E., Steenbergen, A. V., Horman, S., Beauloye, C., & Bertrand, L. (2020) · Archives of cardiovascular diseases · doi:10.1016/j.acvd.2020.06.006 · Cited by 43
Brain Renin–Angiotensin System in Hypertension, Cardiac Hypertrophy, and Heart Failure
Campos, L. A., Bäder, M., & Baltatu, O. C. (2012) · Frontiers in Physiology · doi:10.3389/fphys.2011.00115 · Cited by 39
“The brain RAS – sympathetic nervous system connection is important in the development of left ventricular dysfunction after myocardial infarction (Huang and Leenen, 2009).”
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Rutledge, T., Linke, S., Johnson, B. D., Bittner, V., Krantz, D. S., Cornell, C. E., Vaccarino, V., Pepine, C. J., Handberg, E. M., Eteiba, W., et al. (2011) · Journal of Women s Health · doi:10.1089/jwh.2011.2787 · Cited by 38
Egg Consumption and Incidence of Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies
Khawaja, O. A., Singh, H., Luni, F. K., Kabour, A., Ali, S. S., Taleb, M., Ahmed, H., Gaziano, J. M., & Djoussé, L. (2017) · Frontiers in Nutrition · doi:10.3389/fnut.2017.00010 · Cited by 40
Race and Sex Differences in Modifiable Risk Factors and Incident Heart Failure
Kubicki, D. M., Xu, M., Akwo, E. A., Dixon, D., Muñoz, D., Blot, W. J., Wang, T. J., Lipworth, L. P., & Gupta, D. K. (2019) · JACC Heart Failure · doi:10.1016/j.jchf.2019.11.001 · Cited by 38
“(27) In the prospective NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, physical underactivity was associated with an increased risk for HF in women but not in men, consistent with our results.(28) These prior studies did not, however, examine the combined effect of race and sex on the association between physical activity an…”
ResultColantonio, L. D., Saag, K. G., Singh, J. A., Chen, L., Reynolds, R. J., Gaffo, A., Plante, T. B., Curtis, J. R., Bridges, S. L., Levitan, E. B., et al. (2020) · Arthritis Research & Therapy · doi:10.1186/s13075-020-02175-2 · Cited by 39
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“The major cause of HF is coronary artery disease (CAD), followed by hypertension, diabetes, valvular heart disease and cardiomyopathy [2], [3].”
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“Obesity is a well-known risk factor for systemic hypertension and diabetes mellitus; both have long been acknowledged as causes for heart failure (1, 5).”
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“[32] He J, Ogden LG, Bazzano LA, Vupputuri S, Loria C, Whelton PK.”
BackgroundSex-related similarities and differences in responses to heart failure therapies
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“Several previous studies reported the associations between physical activity and reduction in the risk of incident HF [1–4,22,23].”
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Metadata
- Authors
- He, J., Ogden, L. G., Bazzano, L. A., Vupputuri, S., Loria, C., & Whelton, P. K.
- Affiliations
- Tulane University (US)
- Corresponding author
- He, Jiang
- Venue
- Archives of Internal Medicine
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2001-04-09
- Volume
- 161
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 996
- ISSN
- 0003-9926 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2025266397
- Cited by
- 1,172
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 54 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 61 · 2017: 56 · 2016: 55 · 2015: 61 · 2014: 67 · 2013: 63 · 2012: 66
- FWCI
- 17.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Archives of Internal Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5r03hl061954-02, 5r01hl060300-05)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R03 HL-61954, R01HL60300)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Heart Failure Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Function and Risk Factors
- Keywords
- congestive heart failure, risk factors, attributable risk, incidence, sex differences, educational attainment, physical inactivity, cigarette smoking, overweight, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, valvular heart disease, coronary artery disease, coronary revascularization, coronary angioplasty, coronary artery bypass grafting, coronary angiography
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Coronary Disease, Death Certificates, Educational Status, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Heart Failure, Heart Valve Diseases, Humans, Hypertension, Male, Middle Aged, Nutrition Surveys, Obesity, Risk Factors, Smoking, United States, Exercise, Incidence, Proportional Hazards Models, Sex Distribution, Diabetes Complications
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