Projection of Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Major Eye Diseases Among People With Diabetes Mellitus: United States, 2005-2050
Abstract
Objectives To estimate the number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR), vision-threatening DR (VTDR), glaucoma, and cataracts among Americans 40 years or older with diagnosed diabetes mellitus for the years 2005-2050. Methods Using published prevalence data of DR, VTDR, glaucoma, and cataracts and data from the National Health Interview Survey and the US Census Bureau, we projected the number of Americans with diabetes with these eye conditions. Results The number of Americans 40 years or older with DR and VTDR will triple in 2050, from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million for DR and from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million for VTDR. Increases among those 65 years or older will be more pronounced (2.5 million to 9.9 million for DR and 0.5 million to 1.9 million for VTDR). The number of cataract cases among whites and blacks 40 years or older with diabetes will likely increase 235% by 2050, and the number of glaucoma cases among Hispanics with diabetes 65 years or older will increase 12-fold. Conclusion Future increases in the number of Americans with diabetes will likely lead to significant increases in the number with DR, glaucoma, and cataracts. Our projections may help policy makers anticipate future demands for health care resources and possibly guide the development of targeted interventions. Clinical relevance Efforts to prevent diabetes and to optimally manage diabetes and its complications are needed.
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In 2018, the US FDA granted De Novo authorization to IDx-DR (now LumineticsCore) as the first autonomous AI-based diagnostic system for diabetic retinopathy testing.
“In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted De Novo authorization to IDx-DR (now rebranded as LumineticsCore) (Digital Diagnostics Inc) as the first autonomous AI-based diagnostic system for diabetic retinopathy (DR) testing,2”
From Autonomous Artificial Intelligence in Diabetic Retinopathy Testing—Lessons Learned on Successful Health System Adoption (2026) · cites this paper as [2]
In April 2018, the US FDA cleared the first generation of IDx-DR through the De Novo premarket review pathway as a class II medical device.
“In April 2018, the US FDA cleared the first generation of IDx-DR through the De Novo premarket review pathway as a class II medical device.”
From Autonomous Artificial Intelligence in Diabetic Retinopathy Testing—Lessons Learned on Successful Health System Adoption (2026) · cites this paper as [2]
IDx-DR received the first ever FDA clearance for an autonomous AI algorithm.
“and the first ever FDA clearance for an autonomous AI algorithm.”
From Autonomous Artificial Intelligence in Diabetic Retinopathy Testing—Lessons Learned on Successful Health System Adoption (2026) · cites this paper as [2]
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- Authors
- Saaddine, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Corresponding author
- Saaddine, Jinan B.
- ORCID
- Saaddine, Jinan B.
- Venue
- Archives of Ophthalmology
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2008-12-08
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1740
- ISSN
- 0003-9950 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2042363066
- Cited by
- 377
- References
- 33
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 23 · 2017: 22 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 18.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Archives of Ophthalmology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Retinal Diseases and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Glaucoma and retinal disorders
- Keywords
- diabetic retinopathy, vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, cataract, diabetes mellitus, older adults, racial and ethnic disparities, diabetes complications
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Cataract, Diabetes Mellitus, Diabetic Retinopathy, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Glaucoma, Health Services Research, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, United States, Prevalence, Databases, Factual, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
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