Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.
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Rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in elderly than young adults.
“The rates of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance are significantly greater in the elderly population compared to young adults,91, 92 leading to greater risk for cardiovascular events.”
From Hormonal and Metabolic Changes of Aging and the Influence of Lifestyle Modifications (2021) · cites this paper as [92]
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“In the United States, the largest increase in diabetes is predicted to occur in those over age 75 years,((17)) the precise group that is already at highest risk for fractures.”
BackgroundEffects of Obesity Surgery on the Metabolic Syndrome
Lee, W., Huang, M., Wang, W., Lin, C.-M., Chen, T.-C., & Lai, I. (2004) · Archives of Surgery · doi:10.1001/archsurg.139.10.1088 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
“These trends are likely to continue through the next half century.(5) TherecentlyreleasedThirdReportoftheNationalCholesterolEducationProgramExpertPanelonDetection,Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel III)(6) (ATPIII) has drawn attention to the importance of the MS and pr…”
BackgroundMaraldi, C., Volpato, S., Penninx, B. W. J. H., Yaffe, K. S., Simonsick, E. M., Strotmeyer, E. S., Cesari, M., Kritchevsky, S. B., Perry, S., Ayonayon, H. N., et al. (2007) · Archives of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/archinte.167.11.1137 · Cited by 163 · see citing works
“lent, and its prevalence is expected to increase, particularly among older adults.(8) Persons with DM are at increased risk of”
BackgroundMainous, A. G., Baker, R., Koopman, R. J., Saxena, S. K., Díaz, V. A., Everett, C. J., & Majeed, A. (2006) · Diabetologia · doi:10.1007/s00125-006-0528-5 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Pramlintide in the treatment of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus
Ryan, G. J., Jobe, L. J., & Martin, R. (2005) · Clinical Therapeutics · doi:10.1016/j.clinthera.2005.10.009 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
A1C and Diabetes Diagnosis: The Rancho Bernardo Study
Kramer, C. K., Araneta, M. R. G., & Barrett-Connor, E. (2010) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc09-1366 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
“have the greatest current burden and are expected to have the greatest increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (13,14).”
BackgroundNASH: From liver diseases to metabolic disorders and back to clinical hepatology
Marchesini, G., & Forlani, G. (2002) · Hepatology · doi:10.1053/jhep.2002.31551 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Ubink-Veltmaat, L. J., Bilo, H. J. G., Groenier, K. H., Houweling, S. T., Rischen, R., & Jong, B. M. (2003) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1023/a:1025369623365 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
“Compared with the US, we found a higher prevalence in the eldest age categories (>70 and >75 years for different studies, respectively) [27, 39, 46 ].”
ResultA Form of the Metabolic Syndrome Associated with Mutations in DYRK1B
Keramati, A. R., Fathzadeh, M., Go, G., Singh, R., Choi, M., Faramarzi, S., Mane, S., Kasaei, M. M., Sarajzadeh, K., Hwa, J., et al. (2014) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa1301824 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Marchesini, G., Forlani, G., Cerrelli, F., Manini, R., Natale, S., Baraldi, L., Ermini, G., Savorani, G., Zocchi, D., & Melchionda, N. (2004) · Diabetic Medicine · doi:10.1111/j.1464-5491.2004.01115.x · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Motta, C. L., Sartini, S., Mugnaini, L., Simorini, F., Taliani, S., Salerno, S., Marini, A. M., Settimo, F. D., Lavecchia, A., Novellino, E., et al. (2007) · Journal of Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1021/jm070398a · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Prabhakar, P. K., Prasad, R., Ali, S., & Doble, M. (2013) · Phytomedicine · doi:10.1016/j.phymed.2012.12.004 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Kazé, A. D., Zhuo, M., Kim, S. C., Patorno, E., & Paik, J. M. (2022) · Cardiovascular Diabetology · doi:10.1186/s12933-022-01476-x · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Primary Prevention Working Group* (2004) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-140-11-200406010-00036 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
“In the next 50 years, diagnosed diabetes is predicted to increase by 165% in the United States, with the largest relative increases seen among African Americans, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Asian and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanic/Latino persons (5).”
BackgroundCommunity-Based Lifestyle Interventions to Prevent Type 2 Diabetes
Satterfield, D. W., Volansky, M., Caspersen, C. J., Engelgau, M. M., Bowman, B. A., Gregg, E. W., Geiss, L. S., Hosey, G. M., May, J. E., & Vinicor, F. (2003) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/diacare.26.9.2643 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Diabetes, microvascular complications, and cardiovascular complications: what is it about glucose?
Reusch, J. (2003) · Journal of Clinical Investigation · doi:10.1172/jci19902 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Diabetes prevention in a faith-based setting: results of translational research.
Boltri, J., Davis-Smith, Y. M., Seale, J., Shellenberger, S., Okosun, I., & Cornelius, M. (2008) · Journal of Public Health Management and Practice · doi:10.1097/01.phh.0000303410.66485.91 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Coronary Heart Disease in Patients With Diabetes
Berry, C., Tardif, J., & Bourassa, M. G. (2007) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2006.09.045 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Desai, N. R., Shrank, W. H., Fischer, M. A., Avorn, J., Liberman, J. N., Schneeweiß, S., Pakes, J., Brennan, T. A., & Choudhry, N. K. (2012) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2011.07.033 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Pomegranate: a fruit that ameliorates metabolic syndrome
Medjakovic, S., & Jungbauer, A. (2012) · Food & Function · doi:10.1039/c2fo30034f · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Nature, nurture and human disease
Chakravarti, A., & Little, P. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01401 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
A Bone Structural Basis for Fracture Risk in Diabetes
Melton, L. J., Riggs, B. L., Leibson, C. L., Achenbach, S. J., Camp, J. J., Bouxsein, M., Atkinson, E. J., Robb, R. A., & Khosla, S. (2008) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jc.2008-0639 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
“The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing rapidly in the population (32) so adverse outcomes of the condition are likely to grow in importance as well.”
BackgroundProjected number of people with diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040
Tönnies, T., Röckl, S., Hoyer, A., Heidemann, C., Baumert, J. J., Du, Y., Scheidt‐Nave, C., & Brinks, R. (2019) · Diabetic Medicine · doi:10.1111/dme.13902 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
Retinal Vascular Endothelial Cell Dysfunction and Neuroretinal Degeneration in Diabetic Patients
Mrugacz, M., Bryl, A., & Zorena, K. (2021) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm10030458 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
“It is assumed that in the coming years the number of patients with diabetes will increase [1,5,6].”
BackgroundRole of T Cells in Malnutrition and Obesity
Gerriets, V. A., & MacIver, N. J. (2014) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2014.00379 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
“From these trends, the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) predicts that 1 in 3 American adults will have diabetes by the year 2050 (4).”
BackgroundHypoglycemic and antihyperglycemic activity of Murraya koenigii leaves in diabetic rats
Yadav, S., Vats, V., Dhunnoo, Y., & Grover, J. K. (2002) · Journal of Ethnopharmacology · doi:10.1016/s0378-8741(02)00167-8 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
SIMONE, G. D., Devereux, R. B., Chinali, M., Lee, E. T., Galloway, J. M., Barac, A., Panza, J. A., & Howard, B. V. (2010) · Journal of Hypertension · doi:10.1097/hjh.0b013e3283331169 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Kirkman, D. L., Robinson, A. T., Rossman, M. J., Seals, D. R., & Edwards, D. G. (2021) · American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology · doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00917.2020 · Cited by 146 · see citing works
- Authors
- Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- RTI International (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Care
- Publisher
- American Diabetes Association
- Published
- 2001-11-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1936-1940
- ISSN
- 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-5548
- OpenAlex
- W2060151575
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 29.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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