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The Progression From Hypertension to Congestive Heart Failure
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: - To study the relative and population-attributable risks of hypertension for the development of congestive heart failure (CHF), to assess the time course of progression from hypertension to CHF, and to identify risk factors that contribute to the development of overt heart failure in hypertensive subjects. DESIGN: - Inception cohort study. SETTING: - General community. PARTICIPANTS: - Original Framingham Heart Study and Framingham Offspring Study participants aged 40 to 89 years and free of CHF. To reflect more contemporary experience, the starting point of this study was January 1, 1970. EXPOSURE MEASURES: - Hypertension (blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg systolic or 90 mm Hg diastolic or current use of medications for treatment of high blood pressure) and other potential CHF risk factors were assessed at periodic clinic examinations. OUTCOME MEASURE: - The development of CHF. RESULTS: - A total of 5143 eligible subjects contributed 72422 person-years of observation. During up to 20.1 years of follow-up (mean, 14.1 years), there were 392 new cases of heart failure; in 91% (357/392), hypertension antedated the development of heart failure. Adjusting for age and heart failure risk factors in proportional hazards regression models, the hazard for developing heart failure in hypertensive compared with normotensive subjects was about 2-fold in men and 3-fold in women. Multivariable analyses revealed that hypertension had a high population-attributable risk for CHF, accounting for 39% of cases in men and 59% in women. Among hypertensive subjects, myocardial infarction, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and valvular heart disease were predictive of increased risk for CHF in both sexes. Survival following the onset of hypertensive CHF was bleak; only 24% of men and 31% of women survived 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: - Hypertension was the most common risk factor for CHF, and it contributed a large proportion of heart failure cases in this population-based sample. Preventive strategies directed toward earlier and more aggressive blood pressure control are likely to offer the greatest promise for reducing the incidence of CHF and its associated mortality.
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“up to 91% of all new heart failure development in the Framingham cohort occurred in people with a previous diagnosis of hypertension (275).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [275]
In the citing paper
“The vast majority of incident heart failure is preceded by hypertension;”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [275]
In the citing paper
“The vast majority of incident heart failure is preceded by hypertension; up to 91% of all new heart failure development in the Framingham cohort occurred in people with a previous diagnosis of hypertension (272).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 (2026) · cites this paper as [272]
In the citing paper
“Using 50 years of follow up data, Levy and colleagues reported that the 5 year mortality declined in men from 70% in 1950 to 59% in 1999, and in women from 57% to 45%.58”
From The Framingham Heart Study and the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease: a historical perspective (2014) · cites this paper as [58]
In the citing paper
“Using 50 years of follow up data, Levy and colleagues reported that the 5 year mortality declined in men from 70% in 1950 to 59% in 1999, and in women from 57% to 45%.58”
From The Framingham Heart Study and the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease: a historical perspective (2014) · cites this paper as [58]
In the citing paper
“Over 50% of heart disease, stroke, and heart failure are caused by increased blood pressure.”
From São Paulo call to action for the prevention and control of high blood pressure: 2020 (2019) · cites this paper as [8]
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NEW GUIDELINES FOR PREVENTION, DETECTION, EVALUATION AND TREATMENT OF HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE
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“In the Framingham study (4-6), 91% of heart failures, 84% of strokes and 70% of myocardial infarctions occurred in hypertensive individuals.”
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“The Framingham study has shown that hypertension has the greatest influence on the risk of heart failure, accounting for 39% of heart failure in men and 59% in women.(8) As”
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“One in every three Americans suffers from hypertension, which has become the single most common antecedent risk factor for clinical heart failure (75% of cases) [5, 7].”
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“Hypertension constitutes one of the most common causes of diastolic dysfunction and is a major contributor to the pathogenesis of a large proportion of heart failure cases in a population-based sample.(2,3) Diastolic dysfunction is commonly associated with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), a common feature of system…”
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Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with multiple cardiometabolic risk factors
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“failure in the general population is reported to be 39% in men and 59% in women by the Framingham investigators [101], whereas population attributable risk of uncontrolled blood pressure in elderly was reported to be 21.”
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“Notching was also favored by making LV cells more hypertrophic than those of the RV by decreasing βLV as occurs in HF patients [16, 24, 32, 35, 57].”
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“The Framingham Heart Study data suggest that a proportion of all heart failure that is attributable to diabetes alone is ~12% in women and 6% inmen [43].”
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“Hypertension is not only a major contributor to chronic heart failure but also a major risk factor for progression of elevated blood pressure (BP) to subsequent CVD and stroke diseases (Levy et al. 1996; Lopez et al. 2006).”
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The Beneficial Role of Spiritual Counseling in Heart Failure Patients
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“…co-morbidities, namely coronary heart disease, hypertension and antecedent myocardial infarction, along with an aging population contribute greatly toward the total prevalence of heart failure, which is estimated to be 23 million worldwide (Levy et al. 1996; McMurray et al. 1998; He et al. 2001).”
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“Recent data from the Framingham Heart Study have shown that the prognosis for survival after the onset of hypertensive CHF remains bleak (4).”
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“Overall, these current findings are broadly consistent with those reported from Western population-based studies, including Framingham [24,25] and NHANES [12].”
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“Advanced age is associated with the development and progression of HT owing to aging effects such as atherosclerotic changes and impaired renal function.(24) Most studies have shown that HT prevalence increases with increasing age.”
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“All righ stroke, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, and endstage renal disease [2,3].”
Epidemiology of Sleep-Disordered Breathing and Heart Failure: What Drives What
Dharia, S. M., & Brown, L. K. (2017) · Current Heart Failure Reports · doi:10.1007/s11897-017-0348-6 · Cited by 27
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Continuous positive airway pressure in heart failure patients with obstructive sleep apnoea
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Outpatient management of essential hypertension: a review based on the latest clinical guidelines
Moiz, A., Zolotarova, T., & Eisenberg, M. J. (2024) · Annals of Medicine · doi:10.1080/07853890.2024.2338242 · Cited by 33
“Hypertension is one of the most common chronic medical conditions characterized by a persistent elevation in arterial blood pressure (BP) [1], which contributes to the development of stroke [2,3], myocardial infarction [4,5], heart failure [6], and renal failure [7].”
BackgroundCardiovascular risk factors in developing countries: A review of clinico-epidemiological evidence
Prasad, D. S., Kabir, Z., Dash, A. K., & Das, B. (2010) · Global Heart · doi:10.1016/j.cvdpc.2010.09.001 · Cited by 26
“Similarly hypertension, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), preexisting CAD, and diabetes are vital for congestive heart failure [57,58].”
BackgroundGender Differences in Utilization of Specialized Heart Failure Clinics
Abrahamyan, L., Sahakyan, Y., Wijeysundera, H. C., Krahn, M. D., & Rac, V. E. (2018) · Journal of Women s Health · doi:10.1089/jwh.2017.6461 · Cited by 26
Mokotedi, L. P., Michel, F. S., Mogane, C., Gomes, M., Woodiwiss, A. J., Norton, G. R., & Millen, A. M. E. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0230657 · Cited by 29
Long, C., Tang, S., Wang, R., Ji, L., Wang, Y., Wu, T., Li, Z., & Feng, Z. (2020) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-020-01878-0 · Cited by 26
“Evidence revealed that follow-ups with blood pressure control helped reduce the mortality of congestive heart failure [23, 24].”
BackgroundScenario Adaptive Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation by Integrating Cardiovascular Coupling Effects
Qiu, S., Zhang, Y., Lau, S.-K., & Zhao, N. (2022) · IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics · doi:10.1109/jbhi.2022.3227235 · Cited by 27
“TRACKING blood pressure (BP) in the long term is important for people with hypertension because BP could indicate the risk of diseases of heart (such as coronary heart disease [1], heart failure [2], atrial fibrillation [3]), brain (such as stroke [4] and dementia [5]), kidney (such as chronic kidney disease [6]) and…”
BackgroundDegree of Joint Risk Factor Control and Incident Heart Failure in Hypertensive Patients
Kou, M., Wang, X., Ma, H., Li, X., Heianza, Y., & Qi, L. (2023) · JACC Heart Failure · doi:10.1016/j.jchf.2023.01.006 · Cited by 26
Treatment of systemic hypertension.
Aronow, W. S. (2012) · Europe PMC (PubMed Central) · Cited by 26
for Effect of ARB/Diuretics on Diastolic Function in Patients with Hypertension (EDEN) trial investigators, Ito, H., Ishii, K., Kihara, H., Kasayuki, N., Nakamura, F., Shimada, K., Fukuda, S., Iwakura, K., & Yoshikawa, J. (2011) · Hypertension Research · doi:10.1038/hr.2011.169 · Cited by 26
Whitfield, M., Gillett, M., Holmes, M., & Ogden, E. (2006) · Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2006.10.012 · Cited by 26
Prevalence of Hypertension in Rural Areas of China: A Meta-Analysis of Published Studies
Chen, X., Li, L., Zhou, T., & Li, Z. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0115462 · Cited by 26
Tanaka, H. (2018) · Journal of Echocardiography · doi:10.1007/s12574-018-0408-2 · Cited by 26
Lercanidipine in the Treatment of Hypertension
Beckey, C., Lundy, A., & Lutfi, N. (2007) · Annals of Pharmacotherapy · doi:10.1345/aph.1h299 · Cited by 26
Diastolic heart failure in the community
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“Although this risk ratio is less than that for previous myocardial infarction (RR, 6), the prevalence of hypertension in the population is much higher, such that hypertension accounts for the greatest population-attributable risk for the development of heart failure, approximately 40% in men and 60% in women [ 28 ].”
MethodResultDiscovery of novel non-peptidic ketopiperazine-based renin inhibitors
Holsworth, D. D., Powell, N. A., Downing, D. M., Cai, C., Cody, W. L., Ryan, J. M., Ostroski, R., Jalaie, M., Bryant, J. W., & Edmunds, J. J. (2005) · Bioorganic & Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.bmc.2005.01.048 · Cited by 26
Education, Income, and Incident Heart Failure in Post-Menopausal Women
Shah, R. U., Winkleby, M. A., Horn, L. V., Phillips, L. S., Eaton, C. B., Martin, L. W., Rosal, M. C., Manson, J. E., Ning, H., Lloyd‐Jones, D. M., et al. (2011) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2011.07.006 · Cited by 25
“The FHS criteria required a specific combination of major and minor criteria (7).”
BackgroundMethodSodium Restriction in Heart Failure: Benefit or Harm?
Konerman, M. C., & Hummel, S. L. (2014) · Current Treatment Options in Cardiovascular Medicine · doi:10.1007/s11936-013-0286-x · Cited by 25
Cheng, R. K.-H., Horwich, T. B., & Fonarow, G. C. (2008) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2008.07.058 · Cited by 25
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“In regards to heart failure, hypertensive heart disease most commonly precedes the disease in women, whereas ischemic heart disease is the underlying cause of congestive heart failure in most men [3].”
BackgroundOutcomes Among 3.5 Million Newly Diagnosed Hypertensive Canadians
Quan, H., Chen, G., Tu, K., Bartlett, G., Butt, D. A., Campbell, N. R. C., Hemmelgarn, B. R., Hill, M. D., Johansen, H., Khan, N. A., et al. (2013) · Canadian Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.cjca.2012.12.016 · Cited by 25
Caswell, J. M., Carniello, T. N., & Murugan, N. J. (2015) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-015-1000-3 · Cited by 25
Liu, Y., Yu, M., Wu, L., & Chin, M. T. (2010) · American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology · doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00747.2009 · Cited by 25
“Excessive overloading in diseases such as hypertension can cause a maladaptive response of the heart, referred to as pathological hypertrophy, a common precursor to heart failure, cardiac arrhythmia, and sudden death (16, 28).”
BackgroundMartel, A. C., Saade, M. E. A., Formiga, F., Manzano, L., Aramburu‐Bodas, Ó., Franco, Á. G., Dávila‐Ramos, M. F., Suárez‐Pedreira, I., Domingo, A. H., & Montero-Pérez-Barquero, M. (2015) · Revista Clínica Española · doi:10.1016/j.rce.2015.02.010 · Cited by 25
Lee, S. W., Kim, H. C., Lee, J. M., Yun, Y. M., Lee, J. Y., & Suh, I. (2017) · Hypertension Research · doi:10.1038/hr.2017.21 · Cited by 25
Ivabradine: Current and Future Treatment of Heart Failure
Thorup, L., Simonsen, U., Grimm, D. G., & Hedegaard, E. R. (2017) · Basic & Clinical Pharmacology & Toxicology · doi:10.1111/bcpt.12784 · Cited by 25
Sex Differences in Epidemiology of Cardiac and Vascular Disease
Kuznetsova, T. (2018) · Advances in experimental medicine and biology · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-77932-4_4 · Cited by 25
Ventricular Volume and Length in Hypertensive Diastolic Heart Failure
Maurer, M. S., Rumbarger, L. E., & King, D. L. (2005) · Journal of the American Society of Echocardiography · doi:10.1016/j.echo.2005.03.003 · Cited by 24
The latest generation of beta-blockers: New pharmacologic properties
Pedersen, M. E. F., & Cockcroft, J. R. (2006) · Current Hypertension Reports · doi:10.1007/s11906-006-0065-0 · Cited by 25
“Reduction of arterial stiffness, in turn, may provide significant reductions in clinical outcomes, such as heart failure, which is strongly associated with chronic hypertension [ 42 ].”
BackgroundThom, T. J., & Kannel, W. B. (1997) · Disease Management & Health Outcomes · doi:10.2165/00115677-199701020-00002 · Cited by 25
Roger, V. L. (2018) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.118.028478 · Cited by 26
Hypertension in diverse populations: a New York State Medicaid clinical guidance document
Wrobel, M. J., Figge, J. J., & Izzo, J. L. (2011) · Journal of the American Society of Hypertension · doi:10.1016/j.jash.2011.05.003 · Cited by 24
Metadata
- Authors
- Levy, D.
- Affiliations
- Framingham Heart Study (US)
- Corresponding author
- Levy, Daniel
- ORCID
- Levy, Daniel
- Venue
- JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 1996-05-22
- Volume
- 275
- Issue
- 20
- Pages
- 1557
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- OpenAlex
- W2023515446
- Cited by
- 2,155
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 32 · 2025: 62 · 2024: 62 · 2023: 85 · 2022: 82 · 2021: 73 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 70 · 2017: 75 · 2016: 68 · 2015: 98 · 2014: 86 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 108
- FWCI
- 27.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc038038-022)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01-HC-38038)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Heart Failure Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Blood Pressure and Hypertension Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Function and Risk Factors
- Keywords
- hypertension, congestive heart failure, population attributable risk, heart failure risk factors, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, left ventricular hypertrophy, valvular heart disease, blood pressure control, Framingham Heart Study, Framingham Offspring Study
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Diastole, Female, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Systole, Cohort Studies, Multivariate Analysis, Proportional Hazards Models, Survival Analysis, Hypertrophy, Left Ventricular, Disease Progression, Ventricular Dysfunction, Left
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