Comparative Determinants of 4-Year Cardiovascular Event Rates in Stable Outpatients at Risk of or With Atherothrombosis
Abstract
CONTEXT: Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. RESULTS: A total of 45,227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21,890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15,264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.57-1.85; P < .001), and polyvascular disease (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.78-2.24; P < .001) each were associated with a significantly higher risk of the primary end point. CONCLUSION: Clinical descriptors can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients within the broad range of risk for outpatients with atherothrombosis.
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Pre-existing CVD is associated with a heightened risk of CVD events.
“Previous studies have demonstrated a heightened risk of CVD events with pre-existing CVD [11]”
From Icosapent ethyl reduces CVD risk in cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome: REDUCE-IT CKM (2026) · cites this paper as [11]
Many epidemiological studies have reported that regardless of age and gender, the risk of recurrence of cardiovascular events decreases by approximately half after the first year of smoking cessation and continues to decrease thereafter.
“Many epidemiological studies have reported that regardless of age and gender, the risk of recurrence of cardiovascular events decreases by approximately half after the first year of smoking cessation and continue to decrease thereafter.”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [782]
In patients with CAD who continue to smoke, the risk of recurrence of cardiovascular events is higher than that observed in nonsmokers.
“In patients with CAD who continue to smoke, the risk of recurrence of cardiovascular events is higher than that observed in nonsmokers.”
From Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines for prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases 2017 (2018) · cites this paper as [782]
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“…in a consensus statement by the European Athero-sclerosis Society [10] Previous studies have demonstrated a heightened risk of CVD events with pre-existing CVD [11], as well as an increased likelihood of major adverse CVD events associated with elevated TG [12], as evidenced in REDUCE-IT [8].”
Self-citation
- Authors
- Bhatt, D. L., Eagle, K. A., Ohman, E. M., Hirsch, A. T., Goto, S., Mahoney, E. M., Wilson, P. W. F., Alberts, M. J., D’Agostino, R., Liau, C.-S., Mas, J.-L., Röther, J., Smith, S. C., Salette, G., Contant, C. F., Massaro, J. M., Steg, P. G., & REACH Registry Investigators, F. T.
- Affiliations
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Duke University (US)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Tokai University (JP)
- Saint Luke's Hospital (US)
- Emory University (US)
- Northwestern University (US)
- Boston University (US)
- Tzu Chi Foundation (TW)
- Université Paris Descartes (FR)
- Asklepios Klinik St. Georg (DE)
- Sanofi (France) (FR)
- Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Study Group (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bhatt, Deepak L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- JAMA
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2010-09-22
- Volume
- 304
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1350
- ISSN
- 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
- 0098-7484
- OpenAlex
- W2002189205
- Cited by
- 753
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 66 · 2020: 62 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 59 · 2016: 56 · 2015: 40 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 48 · 2012: 38
- FWCI
- 25.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- JAMA (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Antiplatelet Therapy and Cardiovascular Diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Acute Myocardial Infarction Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Keywords
- cardiovascular events, atherothrombosis, cardiovascular risk stratification, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, REACH registry, stable outpatients, risk factors, polyvascular disease, risk prediction model
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Outpatients, Prognosis, Registries, Risk Factors, Thrombosis, Peripheral Vascular Diseases, Risk Assessment, Stroke, Atherosclerosis
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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