Cited by 737Frailty in Older AdultsPalliative Care and End-of-Life IssuesInsurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

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Prognostic Indices for Older Adults: A Systematic Review

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Yourman, Lindsey C., Lee, Sei J., Schonberg, Mara A., Widera, Eric W., Smith, Alexander K.·2012·JAMA

DOI 10.1001/jama.2011.1966PMC PMC3792853

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Abstract

CONTEXT: To better target services to those who may benefit, many guidelines recommend incorporating life expectancy into clinical decisions. OBJECTIVE: To assess the quality and limitations of prognostic indices for mortality in older adults through systematic review. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Google Scholar from their inception through November 2011. STUDY SELECTION: We included indices if they were validated and predicted absolute risk of mortality in patients whose average age was 60 years or older. We excluded indices that estimated intensive care unit, disease-specific, or in-hospital mortality. DATA EXTRACTION: For each prognostic index, we extracted data on clinical setting, potential for bias, generalizability, and accuracy. RESULTS: We reviewed 21,593 titles to identify 16 indices that predict risk of mortality from 6 months to 5 years for older adults in a variety of clinical settings: the community (6 indices), nursing home (2 indices), and hospital (8 indices). At least 1 measure of transportability (the index is accurate in more than 1 population) was tested for all but 3 indices. By our measures, no study was free from potential bias. Although 13 indices had C statistics of 0.70 or greater, none of the indices had C statistics of 0.90 or greater. Only 2 indices were independently validated by investigators who were not involved in the index's development. CONCLUSION: We identified several indices for predicting overall mortality in different patient groups; future studies need to independently test their accuracy in heterogeneous populations and their ability to improve clinical outcomes before their widespread use can be recommended.

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Background
Incidence, risk factors and risk prediction of hospital-acquired suspected adverse drug reactions: a prospective cohort of Ugandan inpatients
Kiguba, R., Karamagi, C., & Bird, S. M. (2017) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010568 · Cited by 46
Hyponatremia: incidence, risk factors, and consequences in the elderly in a home-based primary care program
Ganguli, A., Mascarenhas, R. C., Jamshed, N., Tefera, E. A., & Veis, J. H. (2015) · Clinical Nephrology · doi:10.5414/cn108453 · Cited by 46
“Predicting all-cause mortality in an outpatient elderly population is difficult, and a recent systematic-analysis has revealed that most prognostic indices are either biased or weakly generalizable [46].”
Background
Prognosis Reconsidered in Light of Ancient Insights—From Hippocrates to Modern Medicine
Thomas, J. M., Cooney, L. M., & Fried, T. R. (2019) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2019.0302 · Cited by 45
Patient-centered care for people living with multimorbidity
Boyd, C. M., & Lucas, G. M. (2014) · Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS · doi:10.1097/coh.0000000000000073 · Cited by 50
Warfarin Treatment and All‐Cause Mortality in Community‐Dwelling Older Adults with Atrial Fibrillation: A Retrospective Observational Study
Pilotto, A., Gallina, P., Copetti, M., Pilotto, A., Marcato, F., Mello, A. M., Simonato, M., Logroscino, G., Padovani, A., Ferrucci, L., et al. (2016) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.14221 · Cited by 46
“In the present study, to evaluate mortality risk in an older population, the MPI based on the SVaMA,(30) a well-calibrated, highly accurate predictor of mortality in this age group, was adopted.(27,44,45) As expected, the MPI-SVaMA was effective in predicting mortality.”
Method
Using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) to improve cost-effectiveness of interventions in multimorbid frail older persons: results and final recommendations from the MPI_AGE European Project
on behalf of the MPI_AGE Investigators, Cruz-Jentoft, A. J., Daragjati, J., Fratiglioni, L., Maggi, S., Mangoni, A. A., Mattace-Raso, F. U. S., Paccalin, M., Polidori, M. C., Topinková, E., et al. (2020) · Aging Clinical and Experimental Research · doi:10.1007/s40520-020-01516-0 · Cited by 45
Predicting Life Expectancy for Community-dwelling Older Adults From Medicare Claims Data
Tan, A., Kuo, Y., & Goodwin, J. S. (2013) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwt054 · Cited by 44
“Life expectancy is an important factor in assessing the quality of specific preventive services for the elderly (1, 2).”
Background
Long‐Term Nursing Home Entry: A Prognostic Model for Older Adults with a Family or Unpaid Caregiver
Wolff, J. L., Mulcahy, J., Roth, D. L., Cenzer, I. S., Kasper, J. D., Huang, J., & Covinsky, K. E. (2018) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.15447 · Cited by 46
Predicting 5- and 10-year mortality risk in older adults with diabetes
Griffith, K. N., Prentice, J. C., Mohr, D. C., & Conlin, P. R. (2020) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc19-1870 · Cited by 48
Systematic review of clinical practice guidelines recommendations about primary cardiovascular disease prevention for older adults
Jansen, J., McKinn, S., Bonner, C., Irwig, L., Doust, J. A., Glasziou, P., Nickel, B., Munster, B. C. V., & McCaffery, K. J. (2015) · BMC Family Practice · doi:10.1186/s12875-015-0310-1 · Cited by 43
“Older people will also vary in terms of prognosis, and when applying CPG recommendations to older people it is important to determine if the person is likely to benefit from the medication within their remaining life (time needed to treat to benefit) [11, 12].”
Background
Using data mining techniques to characterize participation in observational studies
Linden, A., & Yarnold, P. R. (2016) · Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice · doi:10.1111/jep.12515 · Cited by 43
Sublobar resection versus lobectomy in Surgical Treatment of Elderly Patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (STEPS): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial
Yang, F., Sui, X., Chen, X., Zhang, L., Wang, X., Wang, S., & Wang, J. (2016) · Trials · doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1312-6 · Cited by 43
“, who also established the 4-year survival scale [64], which is consistent with a review published in JAMA (2012) [30].”
BackgroundResult
Internet tools to enhance breast cancer care
Shachar, S. S., & Muss, H. B. (2016) · npj Breast Cancer · doi:10.1038/npjbcancer.2016.11 · Cited by 43
“14 The average remaining life expectancy of women at different ages and with different levels of comorbidity is shown in Table 3 (patient 1 is older but healthier with better 10-year survival than patient 2 who is younger but sick).”
Background
Embracing inherent uncertainty in advanced illness: Table 1
Kimbell, B., Murray, S. A., Macpherson, S., & Boyd, K. J. (2016) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.i3802 · Cited by 43
Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Mortality and Allocate Palliative Care for Older Patients With Hip Fracture
Cary, M. P., Zhuang, F., Draelos, R. L., Pan, W., Amarasekara, S., Douthit, B. J., Kang, Y., & Colon-Emeric, C. S. (2020) · Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · doi:10.1016/j.jamda.2020.09.025 · Cited by 42
“12 In a systematic review of 16 prognostic indices that predict risk of mortality from 6-months to 5 years for older adults, the majority (13) had areas under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) ≤ 0.”
Background
Frailty: A Common Pathway in Aging and Cancer
Balducci, L. (2013) · Interdisciplinary topics in gerontology and geriatrics · doi:10.1159/000343586 · Cited by 42
Screening for Breast Cancer in Women Age 75 Years and Older
Lee, C. S., Moy, L. P., Joe, B. N., Sickles, E. A., & Niell, B. L. (2017) · American Journal of Roentgenology · doi:10.2214/ajr.17.18705 · Cited by 42
Life expectancy estimates based on comorbidities and frailty to inform preventive care
Schoenborn, N. L., Blackford, A. L., Joshu, C. E., Boyd, C. M., & Varadhan, R. (2021) · Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · doi:10.1111/jgs.17468 · Cited by 42
“90 years 7072 47 (46, 48) 9 (8, 10) 18,172 57 (56, 58) 15 (14, 16)”
Older Adults’ Preferences for Discussing Long-Term Life Expectancy: Results From a National Survey
Schoenborn, N. L., Janssen, E. M., Boyd, C. M., Bridges, J. F. P., Wolff, A. C., Xue, Q., & Pollack, C. E. (2018) · The Annals of Family Medicine · doi:10.1370/afm.2309 · Cited by 39
Blood Pressure Control Among Older Adults With Hypertension: Narrative Review and Introduction of a Framework for Improving Care
Bowling, C. B., Lee, A., & Williamson, J. D. (2021) · American Journal of Hypertension · doi:10.1093/ajh/hpab002 · Cited by 40
All-Cause and Cancer-Specific Death of Older Adults Following Surgery for Cancer
Chesney, T. R., Coburn, N. G., Mahar, A. L., Davis, L., Zuk, V., Zhao, H., Hsu, A. T., Wright, F. C., Haas, B., Hallet, J. I., et al. (2021) · JAMA Surgery · doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2021.1425 · Cited by 39
The Italian guideline on comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for the older persons: a collaborative work of 25 Italian Scientific Societies and the National Institute of Health
Pilotto, A., Aprile, P. L., Veronese, N., Lacorte, E., Morganti, W., Custodero, C., Piscopo, P., Fabrizi, E., Gatta, F. D., Merlo, A., et al. (2024) · Aging Clinical and Experimental Research · doi:10.1007/s40520-024-02772-0 · Cited by 39
“However, only few of the prognostic tools reported in literature have a multidimensional construct based on a CGA [6].”
Background
The Role of Palliative Care in Population Management and Accountable Care Organizations
Smith, G., Bernacki, R., & Block, S. D. (2015) · Journal of Palliative Medicine · doi:10.1089/jpm.2014.0231 · Cited by 39
“Popular prognostic tools such as ePrognosis (2012) can also be utilized for appropriate populations.(45) Electronic medical records (EMRs) with advanced analytics can flag patients at high risk of death or high resource utilization, thereby identifying patients where palliative care interventions can have impact.”
Advance care planning (ACP) for specialists managing cirrhosis: A focus on patient‐centered care
Brisebois, A., Ismond, K. P., Carbonneau, M., Kowalczewski, J. A., & Tandon, P. (2017) · Hepatology · doi:10.1002/hep.29731 · Cited by 42
“Several noncirrhosis prognostic tools are available,((67)) including an online app, “e-prognosis,” that incorporates multiple comorbidities.”
Background
The utility and value of the “surprise question” for patients with serious illness
Romo, R. D., & Lynn, J. (2017) · Canadian Medical Association Journal · doi:10.1503/cmaj.733231 · Cited by 39
mHOMR: a feasibility study of an automated system for identifying inpatients having an elevated risk of 1-year mortality
Wegier, P., Koo, E., Ansari, S., Kobewka, D. M., O’Connor, E. S., Wu, P. E., Steinberg, L. R., Bell, C. M., Walton, T., van Walraven, C., et al. (2019) · BMJ Quality & Safety · doi:10.1136/bmjqs-2018-009285 · Cited by 38
Feeding decisions in advanced dementia
Harwood, R. (2014) · The Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh · doi:10.4997/jrcpe.2014.310 · Cited by 38
Predicting Survival from Telomere Length versus Conventional Predictors: A Multinational Population-Based Cohort Study
Glei, D. A., Goldman, N., Risques, R. A., Rehkopf, D. H., Dow, W. H., Rosero‐Bixby, L., & Weinstein, M. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0152486 · Cited by 38
“These four studies [9, 15–17] focused on effect sizes and/or the significance of LTL; none quantified the discriminatory ability of LTL and compared it with a range of established mortality predictors such as those included in existing prognostic indexes [18].”
Background
How many older adults receive drugs of questionable clinical benefit near the end of life? A cohort study
Morin, L., Wastesson, J. W., Laroche, M., Fastbom, J., & Johnell, K. (2019) · Palliative Medicine · doi:10.1177/0269216319854013 · Cited by 42
Effects of depression, dementia and delirium on activities of daily living in elderly patients after discharge
Weng, C.-F., Lin, K., Lu, F., Chen, J., Wen, C., Peng, J., Tseng, A. H., & Chan, D. (2019) · BMC Geriatrics · doi:10.1186/s12877-019-1294-9 · Cited by 36
Evidence-based medicine in older patients: how can we do better?
Mooijaart, S. P., Broekhuizen, K., Trompet, S., de Craen, A. J. M., Gussekloo, J., Oleksik, A. M., van Heemst, D., Blauw, G. J., & Muller, M. (2015) · PubMed · Cited by 37
Polypharmacy-associated risk of hospitalisation among people ageing with and without HIV: an observational study
Justice, A. C., Gordon, K. S., Romero, J., Edelman, E. J., Garcia, B. J., Jones, P. C., Khoo, S., Re, V. L., Rentsch, C. T., Tate, J. P., et al. (2021) · The Lancet Healthy Longevity · doi:10.1016/s2666-7568(21)00206-3 · Cited by 37
“29 Yet , full adjustment for the VACS Index, did not elucidate the association between polypharmacy and hospitalisation.”
The Use of Hormone Therapy Alone Versus Hormone Therapy and Radiation Therapy for Breast Cancer in Elderly Women: A Population-Based Study
Nichol, A., Chan, E. K., Lucas, S. J., Smith, S. L., Gondara, L., Speers, C. H., & Tyldesley, S. K. (2017) · International Journal of Radiation Oncology*Biology*Physics · doi:10.1016/j.ijrobp.2017.02.094 · Cited by 36
“Although there are many tools to predict the risk of non-breast cancer death in the elderly, including the Charlson score, none of them has been studied as a decisionmaking tool for adjuvant breast cancer treatment (13, 19-21).”
Method
Change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index Score During Hospitalization in Older Patients
Volpato, S., Daragjati, J., Simonato, M., Fontana, A., Ferrucci, L., Pilotto, A., & on behalf of the MPI-TriVeneto Study Group (2016) · Rejuvenation Research · doi:10.1089/rej.2015.1715 · Cited by 35
“Indeed, according to the results of this study, MPI besides being a reliable prognostic index for clinical decision-making for older adults, 26 might be used to stan-dardly track the clinical course of older patients and to monitor the treatment effects over time.”
Drug consumption and futile medication prescribing in the last year of life: an observational study
Curtin, D., O’Mahony, D., & Gallagher, P. (2018) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afy054 · Cited by 35
Attitudes Towards Deprescribing Among Older Adults with Limited Life Expectancy and Their Relatives: A Systematic Review
Burghle, A., Lundby, C., Ryg, J., Søndergaard, J., Pottegård, A., Nielsen, D. S., & Graabæk, T. (2020) · Drugs & Aging · doi:10.1007/s40266-020-00774-x · Cited by 36
Palliative Care
Swetz, K. M., & Kamal, A. H. (2018) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/aitc201803060 · Cited by 39
High-Cost Dual Eligibles’ Service Use Demonstrates The Need For Supportive And Palliative Models Of Care
Bynum, J., Austin, A. M., Carmichael, D. Q., & Meara, E. R. (2017) · Health Affairs · doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0157 · Cited by 35
Large-scale external validation and comparison of prognostic models: an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Guerra, B., Haile, S. R., Lamprecht, B., Ramírez, A. S., Martínez‐Camblor, P., Kaiser, B., Alfageme, I., Almagro, P., Casanova, C., Esteban, C., et al. (2018) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-018-1013-y · Cited by 35
Breast Cancer Screening in Older Women: The Importance of Shared Decision Making
Schrager, S., Ovsepyan, V., & Burnside, E. S. (2020) · The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine · doi:10.3122/jabfm.2020.03.190380 · Cited by 33
“33 For instance, a risk calculator on the ePrognosis website can be used to estimate a woman ’ s probability of living for 10 years or longer by inputting information about the patient ’ s age, BMI, past medical history, and ability to perform normal daily activities.”
Method
Beyond Self‐Reports: Changes in Biomarkers as Predictors of Mortality
Glei, D. A., Goldman, N., Rodríguez, G., & Weinstein, M. (2014) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00676.x · Cited by 29
“2006b) discrimination, although none of the existing prognostic indices has attained excellent discrimination (Yourman et al. 2012).”
Background
The Multidimensional Prognostic Index predicts in-hospital length of stay in older patients: a multicentre prospective study
Pilotto, A., Sancarlo, D., Pellegrini, F., Rengo, F., Marchionni, N., Volpato, S., & Ferrucci, L. (2016) · Age and Ageing · doi:10.1093/ageing/afv167 · Cited by 32
“As recently reported [12, 13], the MPI showed good accuracy, with C-statistics values reaching roughly 0.”
Method
Development and Validation of a Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Negative Health Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Persons
Pilotto, A., Veronese, N., Guerrero, K. L. Q., Zora, S., Boone, A. L. D., Puntoni, M., Giorgeschi, A., Cella, A., Hidalgo, I. R., Pers, Y., et al. (2018) · Rejuvenation Research · doi:10.1089/rej.2018.2103 · Cited by 33
“most common prognostic tools in geriatric medicine identified very few mortality prognostic indices that meet the requirements of accuracy and calibration for their possible use in different settings.(5) The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI)(6) has been identified as a well-calibrated tool with a good discrimina…”
Background
NECPAL tool prognostication in advanced chronic illness: a rapid review and expert consensus
Gómez‐Batiste, X., Turrillas, P., Tebé, C., Calsina-Berna, A., & Amblàs-Novellas, J. (2020) · BMJ Supportive & Palliative Care · doi:10.1136/bmjspcare-2019-002126 · Cited by 38
Characteristics Associated With Functional Changes During Systemic Cancer Treatments: A Systematic Review Focused on Older Adults
Loh, K. P., Lam, V., Webber, K., Padam, S., Sedrak, M. S., Musinipally, V., Grogan, M. M., Presley, C. J., Grandi, J., Sanapala, C., et al. (2021) · Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network · doi:10.6004/jnccn.2020.7684 · Cited by 33

Authors: Yourman, L. C., Lee, S. J., Schonberg, M. A., Widera, E. W., & Smith, A. K.
Affiliations: University of California, San Francisco (US)
San Francisco VA Medical Center (US)
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (US)
Corresponding author: Smith, Alexander K.
ORCID: Yourman, Lindsey C.
Lee, Sei J.
Schonberg, Mara A.
Widera, Eric W.
Smith, Alexander K.
Venue: JAMA
Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
Published: 2012-01-11
Volume: 307
Issue: 2
Pages: 182
ISSN: 0002-9955 (ISSN-L)
0098-7484
DOI: 10.1001/jama.2011.1966
PMC: PMC3792853
OpenAlex: W2025056766
Cited by: 736
References: 74
Citations by year: 2026: 25 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 65 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 57 · 2017: 60 · 2016: 74 · 2015: 57 · 2014: 59 · 2013: 45 · 2012: 42
FWCI: 31.93
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
europepmc.org
Locations: JAMA (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders: National Institute on Aging (K23AG040772, K23AG040779, T32AG000212)
National Center for Research Resources (UL1RR024131, KL2RR024130)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Frailty in Older Adults
Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues
Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Keywords: prognostic score, mortality prediction, older adults, life expectancy, risk stratification, generalizability, transportability, index validation, concordance index, nursing homes, in-hospital mortality, community-dwelling older adults
MeSH terms: Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Decision Making, Patient Care, Humans, Life Expectancy, Middle Aged, Mortality, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Risk

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Prognostic Indices for Older Adults: A Systematic Review

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