Prognosis of Brief Psychotic Episodes: A Meta-analysis
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IMPORTANCE: The prognostic significance of competing constructs and operationalizations for brief psychotic episodes (acute and transient psychotic disorder [ATPD], brief psychotic disorder [BPD], brief intermittent psychotic symptoms [BIPS], and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms [BLIPS]) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To provide a meta-analytical prognosis of the risk of psychotic recurrence in patients with remitted first-episode ATPD, BPD, BIPS, and BLIPS and in a benchmark group of patients with remitted first-episode schizophrenia (FES). We hypothesized a differential risk: FES > ATPD > BPD > BIPS > BLIPS. DATA SOURCES: The Web of Knowledge and Scopus databases were searched up to May 18, 2015; the articles identified were reviewed as well as citations of previous publications and results of a manual search of the reference lists of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: We included original articles that reported the risk of psychotic recurrence at follow-up for patients in remission from first-episode ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, BIPS, and FES. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Independent extraction by multiple observers. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed, and moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses, Bonferroni corrected. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the results. Publication bias was assessed with funnel plots and the Egger test. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of patients with baseline ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS who had any psychotic recurrence at 6, 12, 24, and 36 or more months of follow-up. RESULTS: Eighty-two independent studies comprising up to 11,133 patients were included. There was no prognostic difference in risk of psychotic recurrence between ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS at any follow-up (P > .03). In the long-term analysis, risk of psychotic recurrence (reported as mean [95% CI]) was significantly higher in the FES group (0.78 [0.58-0.93] at 24 months and 0.84 [0.70-0.94] at ≥ 36 months; P < .02 and P < .001, respectively) compared with the other 4 groups (0.39 [0.32-0.47] at 24 months and 0.51 [0.41-0.61] at ≥ 36 months). There were no publication biases. Sex and exposure to antipsychotic medication modulated the meta-analytical estimates (.002 < P < .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There are no prognostic differences in risk of psychotic recurrence between ATPD, BPD, BLIPS, and BIPS constructs of brief psychotic episodes. Conversely, there is consistent meta-analytical evidence for better long-term prognosis of brief psychotic episodes compared with remitted first-episode schizophrenia. These findings should influence the diagnostic practice and clinical services in the management of early psychosis.
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Up to 40% risk of developing persistent psychosis at 2 years for BLIPS.
“up to 40% risk of developing persistent psychosis at 2 years for BLIPS 269”
From Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people (2021) · cites this paper as [269]
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- Authors
- Fusar-Poli, P., Cappucciati, M., Bonoldi, I., Hui, L. M. C., Rutigliano, G., Stahl, D. R., Borgwardt, S., Politi, P., Mishara, A. L., Lawrie, S. M., Carpenter, W. T., & McGuire, P. K.
- Affiliations
- Department of Psychosis Studies, King’s College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, England2OASIS Service, South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, England3Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University
- King's College London (GB)
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- University of Basel (CH)
- University of Pavia (IT)
- The Chicago School (US)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- University of Maryland, Baltimore (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- JAMA Psychiatry
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2016-03-01
- Volume
- 73
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 211
- ISSN
- 2168-622X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2233448021
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 90
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 12
- FWCI
- 3.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- JAMA Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- CINECA IRIS Institutial research information system (University of Pisa) (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia and Depression
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Keywords
- acute and transient psychotic disorder, brief psychotic disorder, first-episode schizophrenia, prognosis, remission, first-episode psychosis, long-term follow-up, risk stratification, relapse prevention, antipsychotic drugs, family history of psychosis, social functioning
- MeSH terms
- Acute Disease, Adult, Diagnosis, Differential, Female, Humans, Male, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Psychotic Disorders, Recurrence, Schizophrenia, Schizophrenic Psychology
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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