Heterogeneity of Psychosis Risk Within Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Meta-analytical Stratification
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IMPORTANCE: Individuals can be classified as being at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis if they meet at least one of the ultra-high-risk (UHR) inclusion criteria (brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms [BLIPS] and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms [APS] and/or genetic risk and deterioration syndrome [GRD]) and/or basic symptoms [BS]. The meta-analytical risk of psychosis of these different subgroups is still unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of psychosis in CHR individuals who met at least one of the major inclusion criteria and in individuals not at CHR for psychosis (CHR-). DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (Web of Science, MEDLINE, Scopus) were searched until June 18, 2015, along with investigation of citations of previous publications and a manual search of the reference lists of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: We included original follow-up studies of CHR individuals who reported the risk of psychosis classified according to the presence of any BLIPS, APS and GRD, APS alone, GRD alone, BS, and CHR-. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Independent extraction by multiple observers and random-effects meta-analysis of proportions. Moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses (Bonferroni corrected). Heterogeneity was assessed with the I2 index. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness of results. Publication biases were assessed with funnel plots and the Egger test. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The proportion of each subgroup with any psychotic disorder at 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. RESULTS: Thirty-three independent studies comprising up to 4227 individuals were included. The meta-analytical proportion of individuals meeting each UHR subgroup at intake was: 0.85 APS (95%CI, 0.79-0.90), 0.1 BLIPS (95%CI, 0.06-0.14), and 0.05 GRD (95%CI, 0.03-0.07). There were no significant differences in psychosis risk at any time point between the APS and GRD and the APS-alone subgroups. There was a higher risk of psychosis in the any BLIPS greater than APS greater than GRD-alone subgroups at 24, 36, and 48 or more months of follow-up. There was no evidence that the GRD subgroup has a higher risk of psychosis than the CHR- subgroup. There were too few BS or BS and UHR studies to allow robust conclusions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: There is meta-analytical evidence that BLIPS represents separate risk subgroup compared with the APS. The GRD subgroup is infrequent and not associated with an increased risk of psychosis. Future studies are advised to stratify their findings across these different subgroups. The CHR guidelines should be updated to reflect these differences.
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- Authors
- Fusar-Poli, P., Cappucciati, M., Borgwardt, S., Woods, S. W., Addington, J., Nelson, B., Nieman, D. H., Stahl, D. R., Rutigliano, G., Riecher-Rössler, A., Simon, A. E., Mizuno, M., Lee, T. Y., Kwon, J. S., Lam, M. M. L., Perez, J., Keri, S., Amminger, P., Metzler, S., Kawohl, W., Rössler, W., Lee, J., Labad, J., Ziermans, T., An, S. K., Liu, C.-C., Woodberry, K. A., Braham, A., Corcoran, C., McGorry, P., Yung, A. R., & McGuire, P. K.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King’s College, London, United Kingdom2OASIS Clinic, South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
- King's College London (GB)
- University of Basel (CH)
- Yale University (US)
- University of Calgary (CA)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam (NL)
- University of Basel Psychiatric Clinics, Basel, Switzerland
- Toho University (JP)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Kwai Chung Hospital (CN)
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Nyiro Gyula Hospital, National Institute of Psychiatry and Addictions, Budapest, Hungary
- Orygen, the National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, and Centre for Youth Mental Health, the University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia
- University Hospital Zurich (CH)
- Centre for Social Psychiatry, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Institute of Mental Health (SG)
- Corporació Sanitària Parc Taulí (ES)
- Leiden University (NL)
- Yonsei University (KR)
- National Taiwan University (TW)
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (US)
- Hôpital Farhat Hached (TN)
- Columbia University (US)
- University of Manchester (GB)
- ORCID
- Cappucciati, Marco
- Borgwardt, Stefan
- Woods, Scott W.
- Addington, Jean
- Nelson, Barnaby
- Nieman, Dorien H.
- Stahl, Daniel R.
- Rutigliano, Grazia
- Simon, Andor E.
- Lee, Tae Young
- Kwon, Jun Soo
- Kawohl, Wolfram
- Lee, Jimmy
- Labad, Javier
- Ziermans, Tim
- An, Suk Kyoon
- Liu, Chen-Chung
- Woodberry, Kristen A.
- Braham, Amel
- Corcoran, Cheryl
- McGorry, Patrick
- Yung, Alison R.
- McGuire, Philip K.
- Venue
- JAMA Psychiatry
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2016-02-01
- Volume
- 73
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 113
- ISSN
- 2168-622X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2207056170
- Cited by
- 440
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 36 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 66 · 2019: 70 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 31 · 2016: 23 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 24.33
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- pure.amsterdamumc.nl
- Licence
- other-oa
- Locations
- JAMA Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion)
- CINECA IRIS Institutial research information system (University of Pisa) (submittedVersion)
- YUHSpace (Yonsei University Medical Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
- Own your potential (DEAKIN) (submittedVersion)
- edoc (University of Basel) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (K23MH066279, U01MH066160, R03MH108933)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychopathy, Forensic Psychiatry, Sexual Offending
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Keywords
- clinical high risk for psychosis, attenuated psychotic symptoms, basic symptoms, transition to psychosis, bipolar disorder, psychosis spectrum disorders
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Psychotic Disorders, Risk
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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