Projections of future summertime ozone over the U.S.
Abstract
Abstract We use a regional coupled chemistry‐transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution under the A2 climate and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic precursor emission scenarios. Predicted changes in regional climate and globally enhanced ozone are estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S.; the 95th percentile for daily 8 h maximum surface ozone increases from 79 ppb to 87 ppb. The analysis suggests that changes in meteorological drivers likely will add to increasing ozone, but the simulations do not allow separating meteorological feedbacks from that due to enhanced global ozone. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks; if implemented as in RCP8.5, the 95th percentile for surface ozone is reduced to 55 ppb. A comparison of regional to global model projections shows that the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations. On average, both the global and the regional model predict similar future changes but reveal pronounced differences in urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of the considered global model. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality projections and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in policy making. It also illustrates the need for high‐resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society.
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The 95th percentile for daily 8-h maximum ozone over most of the United States would increase from 79 ppb in 2012 to 87 ppb in 2050.
“it is predicted that the 95th percentile for daily 8-h maximum ozone would increase from 79 ppb in 2012 to 87 ppb in 2050 (8).”
From Ozone pollution: A Major health hazard worldwide (2019) · cites this paper as [8]
Other ozone-associated mortality estimates include 316,000 respiratory deaths in China and ~23,500 in the European Union.
“Other ozone-associated mortality estimates include 316,000 respiratory deaths in China (15) and ~23,500 in the European Union8.”
From Ozone pollution: A Major health hazard worldwide (2019) · cites this paper as [8]
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- Authors
- Pfister, G. G., Walters, S., Lamarque, J. ‐., Fast, J., Barth, M. C., Wong, J., Done, J., Holland, G., & Bruyère, C. L.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-05-05
- Volume
- 119
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 5559-5582
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2141845251
- Cited by
- 87
- References
- 89
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 3
- FWCI
- 6.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- NSF-EaSM (AGS-1048829)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- surface ozone, climate change impacts on air quality, A2 emission scenario, emission control strategies, high-resolution modeling
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