Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Childhood Investments on Postsecondary Attainment and Degree Completion
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Abstract This paper examines the effect of early childhood investments on college enrollment and degree completion. We used the random assignment in Project STAR (the Tennessee Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio experiment) to estimate the effect of smaller classes in primary school on college entry, college choice, and degree completion. We improve on existing work in this area with unusually detailed data on college enrollment spells and the previously unexplored outcome of college degree completion. We found that assignment to a small class increases students’ probability of attending college by 2.7 percentage points, with effects more than twice as large among black students. Among students enrolled in the poorest third of schools, the effect is 7.3 percentage points. Smaller classes increased the likelihood of earning a college degree by 1.6 percentage points and shifted students toward high‐earning fields such as STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), business, and economics. We found that test‐score effects at the time of the experiment were an excellent predictor of long‐term improvements in postsecondary outcomes.
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- Authors
- Dynarski, S., Hyman, J., & Schanzenbach, D. W.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Policy Analysis and Management
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2013-07-26
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 692-717
- ISSN
- 0276-8739 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-6688
- OpenAlex
- W2114256915
- Cited by
- 223
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 8 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 80.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Yale University
- Vanderbilt University
- Princeton University
- Tennessee Department of Education
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education Research Studies
- Social Sciences › Education › Early Childhood Education and Development
- Keywords
- early childhood investment, class size, small class size, college enrollment, graduation, college choice, Project STAR, Black students, low-income students, STEM fields, test scores, elementary school, postsecondary attainment
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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