The Power of Relative Rates Tests Depends on the Data
Abstract
One of the most useful features of molecular phylogenetic analyses is the potential for estimating dates of divergence of evolutionary lineages from the DNA of extant species. But lineage-specific variation in rate of molecular evolution complicates molecular dating, because a calibration rate estimated from one lineage may not be an accurate representation of the rate in other lineages. Many molecular dating studies use a "clock test" to identify and exclude sequences that vary in rate between lineages. However, these clock tests should not be relied upon without a critical examination of their effectiveness at removing rate variable sequences from any given data set, particularly with regard to the sequence length and number of variable sites. As an illustration of this problem we present a power test of a frequently employed triplet relative rates test. We conclude that (1) relative rates tests are unlikely to detect moderate levels of lineage-specific rate variation (where one lineage has a rate of molecular evolution 1.5 to 4.0 times the other) for most commonly used sequences in molecular dating analyses, and (2) this lack of power is likely to result in substantial error in the estimation of dates of divergence. As an example, we show that the well-studied rate difference between murid rodents and great apes will not be detected for many of the sequences used to date the divergence between these two lineages and that this failure to detect rate variation is likely to result in consistent overestimation the date of the rodent-primate split.
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The variation in rate of molecular evolution between lineages warns against using a calibration rate calculated for one lineage to date another, often distantly related, lineage.
“The variation in rate of molecular evolution between lineages warns against using a calibration rate calculated for one lineage to date another, often distantly related, lineage 1,28,48 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
In this case, molecular date estimates could be systematically inaccurate.
“In this case, molecular date estimates could be systematically inaccurate 28 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
The nearly neutral theory predicts that the rate of molecular evolution is influenced by mutation rate, population size and the relative proportions of sites with different selective coefficients; these factors might differ between genes, between species and over time, potentially resulting in consistent bias in date estimates.
“Second, the nearly neutral theory predicts that the rate of molecular evolution is influenced by mutation rate, population size and the relative proportions of sites with different selective coefficients; these factors might differ between genes, between species and over time, potentially resulting in consistent bias in date estimates 28 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
Failure to detect rate variation can cause systematic error in date estimates, because undetected rate variation can lead to consistently overestimated dates of divergence.
“Failure to detect rate variation can cause systematic error in date estimates, because undetected rate variation can lead to consistently overestimated dates of divergence 28 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
If the genetic distance between rodents and primates is used to estimate their date of divergence by assuming a constant rate of molecular evolution, this rate difference can result in molecular dates that are consistently too old.
“If the genetic distance between rodents and primates is used to estimate their date of divergence by assuming a constant rate of molecular evolution, this rate difference can result in molecular dates that are consistently too old 28 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
Clock tests lack power for shorter sequences (or genes with low rates of change) and will detect only a relatively low proportion of cases of rate variation for the types of sequence typically used in molecular clock studies.
“However, these clock tests lack power for shorter sequences (or genes with low rates of change) and will detect only a relatively low proportion of cases of rate variation for the types of sequence that are typically used in molecular clock studies 28 .”
From The modern molecular clock (2003) · cites this paper as [28]
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Initial Diversification of Living Amphibians Predated the Breakup of Pangaea
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- Authors
- Bromham, L., Penny, D., Rambaut, A., & Hendy, M. D.
- Affiliations
- Massey University (NZ)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- Journal of Molecular Evolution
- Published
- 2000-03
- Volume
- 50
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 296-301
- ISSN
- 0022-2844 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1480478228
- Cited by
- 168
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 5.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Journal of Molecular Evolution (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Genomics and Phylogenetic Studies
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic diversity and population structure
- Keywords
- divergence time estimation, power analysis, murid rodents, great apes, sequence length, variable sites
- MeSH terms
- Genetic Variation, Evolution, Molecular
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