Dates from the molecular clock: how wrong can we be?
Abstract
Large discrepancies have been found in dates of evolutionary events obtained using the molecular clock. Twofold differences have been reported between the dates estimated from molecular data and those from the fossil record; furthermore, different molecular methods can give dates that differ 20-fold. New software attempts to incorporate appropriate allowances for this uncertainty into the calculation of the accuracy of date estimates. Here, we propose that these innovations represent welcome progress towards obtaining reliable dates from the molecular clock, but warn that they are currently unproven, given that the causes and pattern of the discrepancies are the subject of ongoing research. This research implies that many previous studies, even some of those using recently developed methods, might have placed too much confidence in their date estimates, and their conclusions might need to be revised.
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There is variation in the genetic sequence substitution rate among generations and between evolutionary lineages, which means that different branches of the tree of life have evolved at different rates.
“There is variation in the genetic sequence substitution rate among generations and between evolutionary lineages, which means that different branches of the tree of life have evolved at different rates (Pulquerio and Nichols, 2007).”
From The Astrobiology Primer v2.0 (2016) · cites this paper as Pulquerio and Nichols, 2007
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A Total-Evidence Approach to Dating with Fossils, Applied to the Early Radiation of the Hymenoptera
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“There is variation in the genetic sequence substitution rate among generations and between evolutionary lineages, which means that different branches of the tree of life have evolved at different rates (Pulquerio and Nichols, 2007).”
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- Authors
- Pulquério, M. J. F., & Nichols, R. A.
- Affiliations
- University of London (GB)
- Queen Mary University of London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Pulquério, Mário J.F.
- ORCID
- Nichols, Richard A.
- Venue
- Trends in Ecology & Evolution
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2007-04
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 180-184
- ISSN
- 0169-5347 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2100514116
- Cited by
- 267
- References
- 16
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 26
- FWCI
- 2.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Trends in Ecology & Evolution (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Genomics and Phylogenetic Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Keywords
- molecular clock, divergence time estimation, fossil record, methodological discrepancies
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Fossils, Humans, Phylogeny, Evolution, Molecular, Uncertainty
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